- Aug 18, 2018
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What if Cerra turns into a bust?
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AFLW 2024 - Round 4 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Traded Jordan Clark and F4 traded to Fremantle for #22 and F3 (Carl)
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How much would Cerra have been worth last year? More or less than what he got offered this year?
How much would you have to pay for King this year? How much would you have to pay next year?
A good man suggested that…
from memory WCE actually ended up paying more for TK the following year than what we asked for the previous year as his value increased again, JC sure as hell was not going to magically be worth more than 3 first rounders a year prior..
As I said before which you are ignoring or it’s going over your head, I said if he has a breakout season and becomes a top player, he is going to be worth a lot more than he currently is as an in and out kid who is rated on potential and upside. If he continues to stagnate then he will be worth less.
I will re word your above, if Ben king comes out next season and kicks 70 goals and wins the Coleman medal, AA and best key forward in the comp, which is not an unreasonable thing to call a breakout jump for him given how many goals he kicked. Would he be worth more or less in a trade??
kaiserchief13
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Geelong the new Essendon. Want the world for players who aren't even best 22. Treat the guy right and let him go for an average pick
- Feb 9, 2015
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Why isn’t it on Freo treat the guy right and give up a good pick to get him?
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This has made my day. Just Beautiful.absolutely rent free in your head for years. Let it go. Stop looking for excuses. Kelly is out of shape and content now. Like the majority of the 800k plus players at the Weagles.
Down to splitting hairs for Clark but if Wells says no to your offer of #24/25 then you can guarantee it won’t happen. Take it to the bank. He hasn’t said that yet so let’s just wait and see. Unlike most of the usual clubs that absolutely get firm trying to win trade week and get a head on a stick for their deprived fan base, Geelong just get things done.
Wow that's a serious melt for no apparent reason. Your own fans have said multiple times when your club doesn't want to lose a player they dig their heels in. Hence Clark cannot possibly be compared to Constable or Fogarty. But that's your fans, not your club.
If Geelong 'got things done' Clark would have been traded by now. I don't really care if you trade him or not. Up to Freo how much they want to indulge Geelong's desire for better than pick 22, which itself is more than I would pay if I got to play list manager.
Deflect and talk about Kelly if you like, but I was one of the few that said all along he was overrated at Geelong and would be behind Yeo and Shuey in our midifeld. Which he is. Our fat and happy players have no bearing on this trade.
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I would prefer not to
kaiserchief13
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Because all clubs (outside Geelong it seems) let non best 22 players go for cheap for opportunity, because it's the humane thing to do
Almost all Cats supporters seem like they would be happy with pick 19. We are offering a pick 3 (I repeat 3) spots later.
If 19 is a good pick then surely 22 isn't insulting? I'd suggest we are upholding our end of the bargain. The Cats don't have to trade Clark but I feel we've done our bit.
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You've done more than your bit. Pick 27 was fine.
Brad Hill was allowed to return to his home state under contract for pick 23. He was 23 years old and had barely missed a game in 3 years playing in 3 flags.
But apparently it's an indignation that Clark wants to leave and Freo aren't prepared to offer a top 20 pick.
gaz love x
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Richmond just got a high second rounder for CCJ (uncontracted, played far fewer games than Clark)
West Coast took Brander off the table in the Kelly trade
etc etc
If a team only has 22 players on their list they value they're not going to win very many games.
I completely understand what you are saying ultimately though you lose a lot of leverage (just like we did with Cerra). Another example, If Lachie Neale was out of contract right now he'd be heading home back to the dockers for a reasonable amount, but because he is contracted Brisbane has been able to request far more than what he is worth. Hence, why he is staying at the lions.
What is a breakout season for Clark? he isn't all of a sudden going to go from not getting a game to being in the AA side, this would be about the only thing that would demand our first rounder (and a low one at that as we aren't finishing in the 8.)
Again, i get what you're saying with regards to Ben King... his value goes up because he has played a coleman season coupled with multiple fantastic seasons and proved that he is the gun that he was already showing he could be. However, he is also now out of contract so Gold Coast would lose a lot of leverage. If St Kilda (using them as thats where he probably ends up) was the bottom finishing Victorian club there is always a threat that the PSD can happen, thus the value gets diluted further. Tim Kelly would not have been traded for nearly as much had the Eagles finished lower than the dockers.
Again, the PSD threat rarely happens, though we have seen Martin and Hately as recent examples.
One player is a KPF, the other is a Half Back Flank/Winger.
KPF's always take longer to develop.
Hence the valuation for CCJ.
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So you're telling me you can value a young player on potential and not solely on whether they've been best 22 for a top four team in the past 12-24 months?
I honestly don't believe that when a player requests a trade that the club places an unreasonable demand of value, i do believe clubs act in general good faith like that. hence why we traded out TK for more the next season than we actually asked the previous season, so i don't necessarily believe that is true, and as i said i don't believe we would have paid even more the year prior than 3 1sts for JC either. You only pay overs if the player doesnt want to leave and the club doesnt want them to leave and your trying to pry them out with a crowbar... then its necessary to dangle a golden carrot or as the godfather says.. "an offer you cannot refuse".
Cerra honestly is worth about pick 6... pick 6 is a very good and very high pick. there are not many players in the AFL who are worth pick 1,2,3 in the draft... very rarely will you see a deal like that.. i think chris Judd even got knocked back by carlton at the idea of pick 1 and instead threw in pick 3 + kennedy, but initially they baulked at pick 1. Ideally he is probably worth if you want to get my exact opinion pick 4, but carlton would have given that had they had it.
what do you mean leverage?? there is no leverage unless you have pick 1 in the PSD like adelaide did. This is an ideology which just doesnt happen because it is not a real leverage and carries risk if clubs are ahead of you. If it s a good player nobody is taking that risk and hence in reality they don't. So again not sure why you keep referencing leverage when there is none unless you can guarantee another avenue of picking them up.
You also keep referencing players who are already exceptional players continuing their expected trajectories, Clark would be going from a 24/25th reserve player who is in and out to a breakout year in the best 22, and its very possible given his age and talent, that his value would go up considerably.
i think its more the fact you have both available and we just simply want the best value for a player we don't want to part ways with. If your happy to give up 22 surely 19 isnt a big deal either and keep 22? you do have to flip the narrative if your applying it to us also to freo
Ah no. Richmond didn't get a high second for CCJ. It was more like upgrading third rounder to second round pick (which is very different) and Tarrant (who wasn't worth a lot).
Richmond receives Robbie Tarrant, a third-round pick (currently No.40) and a future second-round selection
North Melbourne receives Callum Coleman-Jones, two third-round picks (currently No.42 and No.47) and a future fourth-round selection
No because of the AFL draft day circus 19 is worth significantly more and you know it.
ok so your saying it is a big deal?? why did you then say a pick 3 difference is not a big deal then? your contradicting yourself
It's a unique situation. I'd suggest the pick 19 is more valuable than pick 18 and history has demonstrated this.
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He’s not an injured farm animal.
Death, Taxes and Scotland popping up on a trade thread involving Geelong grinding his little axe
ps You’re using the term melt all wrong but don’t stop bc as I said it gives us great joy having you back each year.
Death, Taxes and Scotland popping up on a trade thread involving Geelong grinding his little axe
ps You’re using the term melt all wrong but don’t stop bc as I said it gives us great joy having you back each year.
Wait till we get Brander as a DFA. Guy will really lose his shit.
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Brander does not fit your clubs age profile, needs to be 3 years older at least.Wait till we get Brander as a DFA. Guy will really lose his sh*t.
Then keep it as you’ve been given an alternative. You can guarantee GC and GWS won’t be paying overs for it this year. The pick has taken on mythological qualities on BigFooty.
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