Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Not that it will ever be admitted but Tanking?

Like not tagging JJ when you play the Bulldogs?

No need to reply just my take on the situation.

It feels like Dew is making a point more than anything. Dropping Lyons. Dropping Hall. Probably their two best players.

He's all about bringing the pressure around the ball and making that the clubs identity.

We saw it through the preseason, but probably hasn't carried over through to the season proper as successfully as hoped.

Seems a very deliberate development focus.

People are looking at Barlow's numbers in the NEAFL and saying wtf, why isnt he playing. The reality is that he is genuinely cooked. A few weeks ago he had like 45 touches but literally a third of his possessions were a direct turnover. And this is in the NEAFL. Barlow will be able to get 40+ touches a week in the NEAFL till he's like 50y.o., he's a magnet and the NEAFL is not a strong competition. The last time we saw Barlow in the AFL it was extremely clear that he is genuinely cooked. The Suns are doing the right thing not playing him.

Not playing Lyons is an utter disgrace. The only explanation is that Dew is not a fan of him and I do wonder if Lyons might get moved on at the end of the year.

If you get 30+ touches, does disposal matter all that much? He can play inside and win it and distribute by hand. For mine that's better than really every outside of Lyons and Hall who can't get 20+ disposals each week.

Knightmare, Please take note of Harry Mackay's game today against quality opposition.....Show's incredible potential...note his contested marking

I was busy watching Western v GWV today.

Looking at McKay's stats though, looks like one of the few who showed up today. A definite step in the right direction. Equal career high's in disposals and marks and only one of in goals. Pretty good in a game where Carlton were thrashed by over 100 points. Probably his best game so far.

Playing v good opponents doesn't seem to trouble him. Also went well v WCE in round 1 with 6 marks and 4 goals.

As with other young players, he'll need to develop greater consistency. If he can be a 40+ goal, 100+ mark, 250+ disposal key forward per 20 games, I'll be very openly acknowledging McKay as a key forward to build around.

At the end of the day, it's still early stages for him, he's still a developing player.

Knightmare did you hear anything about why Nathan Kreuger didnt get picked up last year? Has had a really good year in the SANFL seniors and is bulking up to be quite a big guy. Has a very good ability to mark the ball at its highest point, strong hands and can play back, forward and mid.

He showed attributes last year but from what I recall his production was only so-so.

He was seen as a late/rookie pick, and when you're a KPP and not seen as a top 40 choice, often you'll fall through with clubs knowing only really top tier KPPs really are worthwhile.

All he can do is keep improving and if he looks like he can become an AFL quality KPP and hold down a position as a clear best 22 guy, he can earn a list position.

 

[M Malice]

Hi KM, Where do you have Liam Stoker in your power rankings? Strengths, weaknesses, player comparison?

 

[footylover18]

If you get 30+ touches, does disposal matter all that much? He can play inside and win it and distribute by hand. For mine that's better than really every outside of Lyons and Hall who can't get 20+ disposals each week.

disagree. Brodie needs games.

Swallow + Lyons + Brodie

pretty slow. all inside.

can't fit Barlow in.

im fine with them developing their future.

 

[LemmingMaster]

As with other young players, he'll need to develop greater consistency. If he can be a 40+ goal, 100+ mark, 250+ disposal key forward per 20 games, I'll be very openly acknowledging McKay as a key forward to build around.

This year that would probably place him in the top 10 tall forwards. So you be considered a viable key foward you have to be in the top 8-10 players? You set a rather high bar!

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, Where do you have Liam Stoker in your power rankings? Strengths, weaknesses, player comparison?

Stocker is 21 in my power rankings and another strong month of footy and he can push into the early teens, if not close to 10. I'm finding that 10-30 group overall to be very even and hard to separate.

Strengths:
Contested ball winning
Tackling
Stoppage work
Strength
Skills by hand and foot
Clean at ground level
Composure
Decision making under pressure

Weaknesses:
X-factor
Contested marking

I'm not calling him as good, but stylistically he reminds me of Callan Ward.

disagree. Brodie needs games.

Swallow + Lyons + Brodie

pretty slow. all inside.

can't fit Barlow in.

im fine with them developing their future.

Brodie and Swallow are both fairly quick and Lyons covers the ground fine.

I'd be using a full rotation of: Hanley, Miller, Weller, Young, Scheer, Barlow, Swallow, Lyons, Bowes, Hall and Brodie.

I'd like to see Gold Coast use a large and varied midfield rotation as they've got some established mids and a number of good younger mids who need games. Barlow is the one I'd look to keep as a permanent mid with the others rotating either forward/back/outside.

This year that would probably place him in the top 10 tall forwards. So you be considered a viable key foward you have to be in the top 8-10 players? You set a rather high bar!

There aren't many key forwards I'd want. It's a position you want elite players or you may as well have versatile medium sizers in there.

Franklin, McDonald, Westhoff, Riewoldt, Kennedy, Hawkins, Gunston, Cameron, Brown, Walker, Roughead, Darling, Lynch, Daniher, Curnow, Hooker, Jenkins, Patton, Hogan and Waite. Those are the key forwards I'd want and would take any day. They're my any team, clear best 22 quality performers by position - top of mind. They're the guy you want to fill your team with and can be relied on each year to get these kinds of numbers - or if in the case of a Westhoff where he's falling short on the goal-front due to the role he plays - he's far exceeding that bar in the other key categories.

There are young key forwards who can join that conversation - Hipwood, Wright, Moore if he can get healthy look among the most likely in the system at the moment. Though there is an interesting lack of premium quality young key forwards at the moment.

There are some clear best 22 types who will some years meet these benchmarks, or two out of the three categories. Those types I'd probably want to be more dual position types to make their position in a team worthwhile, otherwise I would in most cases lean towards a more flexible, smaller setup and play a Josh Caddy, Jordan De Goey or similar type as a deeper marking forward as someone shorter than the traditional KPF who can still take advantage of players 1v1 - but then also give you other options - whether it's becoming a part of a midfield rotation or whatever the case may be.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

disagree. Brodie needs games.

Swallow + Lyons + Brodie

pretty slow. all inside.

can't fit Barlow in.

im fine with them developing their future.

I also Barlow recently and he had 45 + but I was actually laughing during game about how bad he was

He's miles off playing AFL again , every time he got the ball he slowed the ball movment down and most possessions he got were meaningless

Then defensively once ball left his area he was cooked

Be lucky to play again and retire at end of year is best

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Knightmare.

If any draft prospect did what Gaff did to Brayshaw yesterday, would that be their draft chances done for that season?

 

[GUMBLETRON]

If any draft prospect did what Gaff did to Brayshaw yesterday, would that be their draft chances done for that season?

Ben Ainsworth broke an opponent's jaw off the ball in his draft year.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare.

If any draft prospect did what Gaff did to Brayshaw yesterday, would that be their draft chances done for that season?

Clubs know whether players are of high character or not - be it those inside the system and those hoping to get picked and whether there are any risks with any of them - as they will have done their research - and know close enough to everything there is to know about them.

Just as clubs will know Gaff's punch on Brayshaw while not excusable (and he'll get however many his weeks suspension) is out of character. I know Gaff's character and I know that punch wasn't consistent with his character, and clubs will know with kids coming through the system what their temperaments are and whether there are any risks or whatever may be the case.

If such an incident happens, this analysis is essentially what would be referred back to - whether it's seen as something that is likely to reoccur - considering whether it's something they've done before or whether their temperament could be such that they might be at risk of re-offending.

 

[rog1995]

Hi Knightmare seeing as you don't rate Harry McKay, just wondering if you managed to watch his highlights from yesterday's game? Not many KPF at 20 have done what Harry did yesterday on quality opposition and he's yet to complete a pre-season. He should have kicked 5 goals in a side that lost by 100 plus.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Ben Ainsworth broke an opponent's jaw off the ball in his draft year.

Forgot about that.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Clubs know whether players are of high character or not - be it those inside the system and those hoping to get picked and whether there are any risks with any of them - as they will have done their research - and know close enough to everything there is to know about them.

Just as clubs will know Gaff's punch on Brayshaw while not excusable (and he'll get however many his weeks suspension) is out of character. I know Gaff's character and I know that punch wasn't consistent with his character, and clubs will know with kids coming through the system what their temperaments are and whether there are any risks or whatever may be the case.

If such an incident happens, this analysis is essentially what would be referred back to - whether it's seen as something that is likely to reoccur - considering whether it's something they've done before or whether their temperament could be such that they might be at risk of re-offending.

Thank you for this response.

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

One week closer until I know who the crows get out of lukosious, Rankine, roszee, Hately. It's like Xmas

 

[gcsunsfc]

He has been dropping half the side every second week, which I'm guessing isn't doing wonders either.

Not really true

Last 6 weeks
1 omission (+ ah chee 'managed')
1 omission
0 omissions
1 omission (+ swallow rested)
0 omissions
2 omissions (rd 20)

Been a few additional forced injury changes.

 

[Thehurdle]

Looking at McKay's stats though, looks like one of the few who showed up today. A definite step in the right direction. Equal career high's in disposals and marks and only one of in goals. Pretty good in a game where Carlton were thrashed by over 100 points. Probably his best game so far.

Knightmare, his performance was much better than his stats. Missed 2 easy shots, could easily have had 5 goals before half time. All of his own making. Long shots, dribble goals, pack marks, and one free when Davis panicked over his sheer size and position. I recall you expressing Carlton supporters over-rated him. Perhaps. Lots of upside and to my eye one of the more impressive really young tall forwards in the game.

 

[Knightmare]

August AFL Draft Power Rankings: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...nkings-jack-lukosius-no-1-other-forwards-rise

 

[bigdog43]

KM, would I be be mad for wanting Carlton to take Mitch Podhajski at pick 28 or thereabouts?

 

[M Malice]

August AFL Draft Power Rankings: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...nkings-jack-lukosius-no-1-other-forwards-rise

I hope you're spot on with the Connor McFadyen assessment KM, getting him with a power ranking of 9 and somehow get Walsh or Smith would be fantastic for our future midfield dynamics.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, would I be be mad for wanting Carlton to take Mitch Podhajski at pick 28 or thereabouts?

The good news for Carlton is that much probably doesn't need to be spent.

With that said, Podhajski is inside my top 25. So you're not mad to be thinking about taking him that high. He has the performances on the board, genuine ball winner and is a threat forward of centre. Not many of those running around at 191cm. I took him in the bigfooty trial phantom for a reason.

I hope you're spot on with the Connor McFadyen assessment KM, getting him with a power ranking of 9 and somehow get Walsh or Smith would be fantastic for our future midfield dynamics.

I'm a big wrap for McFadyen. He's doing more than a lot of the more highly rated prospects and has a game that really appeals to me as that taller mid who is not only that ball winner but is a very difficult to defend forward.

He's a great piece Brisbane are incredibly fortune to have priority access to.

 

[TerryWallet]

August AFL Draft Power Rankings: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...nkings-jack-lukosius-no-1-other-forwards-rise

What is going on with the Heights and Weights provided. Where do you guys get your info from?

I'm just looking at Yours and Pie4Life's rankings and the differences are there with most of the top players. You 2 guys are both being published(ESPN and AFL DraftCentral) and not just BF posters, so how are themeasurements so different? Who is out of date or just wrong?

For example:

Lukosius:

You: 194cm and 82kg
Pie4: 196cm and 84kg

Walsh:

You: 182cm and 68kg
Pie4: 183cm and 74kg

Smith:

You: 183cm and 74kg
Pie4: 184cm and 79kg

Will it only be at the Combine that measurements can be clarified? Are they just guesstimates atm?

 

[HedgeFund]

What is going on with the Heights and Weights provided. Where do you guys get your info from?

I'm just looking at Yours and Pie4Life's rankings and the differences are there with most of the top players. You 2 guys are both being published(ESPN and AFL DraftCentral) and not just BF posters, so how are themeasurements so different? Who is out of date or just wrong?

For example:

Lukosius:

You: 194cm and 82kg
Pie4: 196cm and 84kg

Walsh:

You: 182cm and 68kg
Pie4: 183cm and 74kg

Smith:

You: 183cm and 74kg
Pie4: 184cm and 79kg

Will it only be at the Combine that measurements can be clarified? Are they just guesstimates atm?

Seems pretty clear Pie4Life is working with more recent figures/measurements. Don’t you think?

 

[TerryWallet]

Seems pretty clear Pie4Life is working with more recent figures/measurements. Don’t you think?

Well that was my assumption. That's why i elected to post here.

 

[Knightmare]

What is going on with the Heights and Weights provided. Where do you guys get your info from?

I'm just looking at Yours and Pie4Life's rankings and the differences are there with most of the top players. You 2 guys are both being published(ESPN and AFL DraftCentral) and not just BF posters, so how are themeasurements so different? Who is out of date or just wrong?

For example:

Lukosius:

You: 194cm and 82kg
Pie4: 196cm and 84kg

Walsh:

You: 182cm and 68kg
Pie4: 183cm and 74kg

Smith:

You: 183cm and 74kg
Pie4: 184cm and 79kg

Will it only be at the Combine that measurements can be clarified? Are they just guesstimates atm?

You haven't accurately copied the measures as I have them listed in my most recent power rankings update or even my July power rankings which remain on page 1.

Perhaps you are reading my April power rankings?

The measures I have for those three are:
194cm and 82kg
183cm and 74kg
184cm and 79kg

The only one you recorded correctly of mine are Lukosius' measurements.

These are all the current measures as of the U18 Champs lists.

There were measurements of Lukosius preseason listed at 196cm which Pie may have retained, though that got downgraded for the U18 Champs for accuracy, or so the U18 champs measurements list suggests.

 

[TerryWallet]

You haven't accurately copied the measures as I have them listed in my most recent power rankings update or even my July power rankings which remain on page 1.

Perhaps you are reading my April power rankings?

The measures I have for those three are:
194cm and 82kg
183cm and 74kg
184cm and 79kg

The only one you recorded correctly of mine are Lukosius' measurements.

These are all the current measures as of the U18 Champs lists.

There were measurements of Lukosius preseason listed at 196cm which Pie may have retained, though that got downgraded for the U18 Champs for accuracy, or so the U18 champs measurements list suggests.

I listed them accurately as per your latest August link to ESPN. I see you have diff measurements on Page 1 now here. You might want to update your published measurements.

 

[Knightmare]

I listed them accurately as per your latest August link to ESPN. I see you have diff measurements on Page 1 now here. You might want to update your published measurements.

Thanks Terry, I'm now following what you're saying.

You're right with the August power rankings link, I've asked ESPN just now to amend that to reflect my current update.

Cheers.