Speculation Luke Davies-Uniacke [RFA 2025]

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Tas said:
The quality of their list has been declining over the years, they did go all-out for a period recruiting high value players like Cameron but I think even they acknowledge that all good things come to an end and have been recently looking to hit the draft and look at longer-term options.

I think they benefited the most from expansion, they were a strong club in their prime and the dilution of the elite talent crippled the vast majority of clubs who were rebuilding at the time, the two that had got through unscathed were Richmond and Melbourne. There weren't many good sides to challenge, Geelong and Hawthorn were racing to see who could hold on the longest and it opened the door for teams that had a gimmick that was good enough to beat ordinary sides and they generally made up the numbers.

It was fairly easy for teams like Swans, West Coast, Port and later Brisbane and GWS to make finals, you just had to win a majority of your home games where you had a significant advantage then beat up on rebuilding sides on the road... and now you were a contender. But, it is a lot harder for these sides to get enough wins get home finals and the majority of these teams bombed out.

Talent dilution is still a problem, too much of the best talent has been taken away from the sides that need it the most, Eagles were the first team in quite a few years to actually have access to the best young talent, the current system has slowed down how long it takes for teams to rebuild once you hit a critical mass of a sudden loss of talent. Richmond was really dominant for a long time and they aren't in a great spot atm, not just with what has departed but what is still to come. At least the AFL has made inroads to make the top talent to be more accessible to the teams that need it the most.

Geelong has an advantage because it is the Vic Country mecca and a lot of the regional players prefer to live in a regional environment and have easier access to their stadium and play games in the region. Even Collingwood loses players to wanting to go to Geelong, that is less of a boon for suburban Melbourne clubs but there are players who do not want to leave the city or want to go home, there is a lot more competition though, it is different to clubs which are the only option or one of only two.

Hawkins, Tuohy, Dangerfield, Stanley, Blicavs, Rohan and Duncan are 33+. Guthrie, Stewart and Cameron are 31+. Rohan is the only forgettable one of that list, they need to find a lot of talent to replace that existing talent and that is just to tread water and treading water for the last couple of seasons has been borderline top 8. I think they are a well run club that develops well and think they can bounce back quickly, but everyone is having issues with trying to find enough talent to get by that isn't just a gimmick. Clubs like Dogs, Port and to a lesser extent Brisbane play a brand of footy that is hard to win a flag playing, you need that consistent offensive and defensive capability that will stand up in a finals campaign.
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That's a very well said piece but i highly doubt the person you responded to read more than the first paragraph.

I say to him that all dynasties falls. Geelong delayed their fall by 10 years through having strong core plus good free agency pick ups plus some decent 3rd party 'gifts' to avoid the cap.

That core is now at the end so all their tricks up the sleeve will be defunct.

The delayed 10 years of fall will result in much longer midtable slumber.

We did 20 years at the middle due to a range of factors, 2020 was the best thing that has ever happened in that we finally had the luxury of clearing the deck and rebuild.

Other idiots call our club basket cases, sure thing, premiership teams will only come from bottom teams...unless of course they can cheat the cap with COLA or 3rd party free real estate gifts.
 
Tas said:
The quality of their list has been declining over the years, they did go all-out for a period recruiting high value players like Cameron but I think even they acknowledge that all good things come to an end and have been recently looking to hit the draft and look at longer-term options.

I think they benefited the most from expansion, they were a strong club in their prime and the dilution of the elite talent crippled the vast majority of clubs who were rebuilding at the time, the two that had got through unscathed were Richmond and Melbourne. There weren't many good sides to challenge, Geelong and Hawthorn were racing to see who could hold on the longest and it opened the door for teams that had a gimmick that was good enough to beat ordinary sides and they generally made up the numbers.

It was fairly easy for teams like Swans, West Coast, Port and later Brisbane and GWS to make finals, you just had to win a majority of your home games where you had a significant advantage then beat up on rebuilding sides on the road... and now you were a contender. But, it is a lot harder for these sides to get enough wins get home finals and the majority of these teams bombed out.

Talent dilution is still a problem, too much of the best talent has been taken away from the sides that need it the most, Eagles were the first team in quite a few years to actually have access to the best young talent, the current system has slowed down how long it takes for teams to rebuild once you hit a critical mass of a sudden loss of talent. Richmond was really dominant for a long time and they aren't in a great spot atm, not just with what has departed but what is still to come. At least the AFL has made inroads to make the top talent to be more accessible to the teams that need it the most.

Geelong has an advantage because it is the Vic Country mecca and a lot of the regional players prefer to live in a regional environment and have easier access to their stadium and play games in the region. Even Collingwood loses players to wanting to go to Geelong, that is less of a boon for suburban Melbourne clubs but there are players who do not want to leave the city or want to go home, there is a lot more competition though, it is different to clubs which are the only option or one of only two.

Hawkins, Tuohy, Dangerfield, Stanley, Blicavs, Rohan and Duncan are 33+. Guthrie, Stewart and Cameron are 31+. Rohan is the only forgettable one of that list, they need to find a lot of talent to replace that existing talent and that is just to tread water and treading water for the last couple of seasons has been borderline top 8. I think they are a well run club that develops well and think they can bounce back quickly, but everyone is having issues with trying to find enough talent to get by that isn't just a gimmick. Clubs like Dogs, Port and to a lesser extent Brisbane play a brand of footy that is hard to win a flag playing, you need that consistent offensive and defensive capability that will stand up in a finals campaign.
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You can make the case that getting the best player in the draft with a third round pick under old father son rules and then getting to use your first round pick, meaning you picked up the two highest game players for the club ever helped them too.

And I believe they have a deal where players take less money during the season to they get a larger cut of finals prize money which is outside the cap.
 
ChairmanZia said:
Other idiots call our club basket cases, sure thing, premiership teams will only come from bottom teams...unless of course they can cheat the cap with COLA or 3rd party free real estate gifts
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This is just dumb. Premierships come to a range of teams. The last 2 teams to win it haven't bottomed out in the last 20 years. Generally well coached teams, with good development and fitness staff win them in my opinion. The talent is secondary half the time.
 
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Pleasedontfail11 said:
This is just dumb. Premierships come to a range of teams. The last 2 teams to win it haven't bottomed out in the last 20 years. Generally well coached teams, with good development and fitness staff win them in my opinion. The talent is secondary half the time.
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don't worry about it mate, that troll got form. finally got suspended.
 
sexyhunk said:
don't worry about it mate, that troll got form. finally got suspended.
Click to expand...

It’s funny, he was driving North supporters crazy on our board because “it’s a fact LDU is gone” while simultaneously posting posting shit on here.

Not sure he’s a troll, just a couple of sandwiches short of a picnic.
 
Tas said:
The quality of their list has been declining over the years, they did go all-out for a period recruiting high value players like Cameron but I think even they acknowledge that all good things come to an end and have been recently looking to hit the draft and look at longer-term options.

I think they benefited the most from expansion, they were a strong club in their prime and the dilution of the elite talent crippled the vast majority of clubs who were rebuilding at the time, the two that had got through unscathed were Richmond and Melbourne. There weren't many good sides to challenge, Geelong and Hawthorn were racing to see who could hold on the longest and it opened the door for teams that had a gimmick that was good enough to beat ordinary sides and they generally made up the numbers.

It was fairly easy for teams like Swans, West Coast, Port and later Brisbane and GWS to make finals, you just had to win a majority of your home games where you had a significant advantage then beat up on rebuilding sides on the road... and now you were a contender. But, it is a lot harder for these sides to get enough wins get home finals and the majority of these teams bombed out.

Talent dilution is still a problem, too much of the best talent has been taken away from the sides that need it the most, Eagles were the first team in quite a few years to actually have access to the best young talent, the current system has slowed down how long it takes for teams to rebuild once you hit a critical mass of a sudden loss of talent. Richmond was really dominant for a long time and they aren't in a great spot atm, not just with what has departed but what is still to come. At least the AFL has made inroads to make the top talent to be more accessible to the teams that need it the most.

Geelong has an advantage because it is the Vic Country mecca and a lot of the regional players prefer to live in a regional environment and have easier access to their stadium and play games in the region. Even Collingwood loses players to wanting to go to Geelong, that is less of a boon for suburban Melbourne clubs but there are players who do not want to leave the city or want to go home, there is a lot more competition though, it is different to clubs which are the only option or one of only two.

Hawkins, Tuohy, Dangerfield, Stanley, Blicavs, Rohan and Duncan are 33+. Guthrie, Stewart and Cameron are 31+. Rohan is the only forgettable one of that list, they need to find a lot of talent to replace that existing talent and that is just to tread water and treading water for the last couple of seasons has been borderline top 8. I think they are a well run club that develops well and think they can bounce back quickly, but everyone is having issues with trying to find enough talent to get by that isn't just a gimmick. Clubs like Dogs, Port and to a lesser extent Brisbane play a brand of footy that is hard to win a flag playing, you need that consistent offensive and defensive capability that will stand up in a finals campaign.
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I think the closest Geelong would come to admitting they're in decline is to say the list is maybe 2 elite mids from premiership contention
 
CatToTheFuture said:
I think the closest Geelong would come to admitting they're in decline is to say the list is maybe 2 elite mids from premiership contention
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Geelong won't bottom out but would be perennially in the 5th to 12th position pending the form of the senior player.

That would normally be okay if you could still draft craftly but with the 2028 blackhole, it will make this impossible.

I think the likely case would be a fire sell for picks in 2026, 27.
 
ChairmanZia said:
Geelong won't bottom out but would be perennially in the 5th to 12th position pending the form of the senior player.

That would normally be okay if you could still draft craftly but with the 2028 blackhole, it will make this impossible.

I think the likely case would be a fire sell for picks in 2026, 27.
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I think you are massively over rating the draft. Dempsey is $3.75 for the rising star and he was a rookie pick. Go look at Lawson Humphries highlights from his 2 games and just take a mental note that he was the second to last pick last year.

The 2011 Suns draft Geelong still picked up Cam Guthrie and Josh Walker. The 2012 GWS draft year we still added Blitz and Bews as well as some players that ended up elsewhere like McCarthy, Hamling, Kersten, and we got a fair few games from Murdoch. Those year's were better drafts for us than most of the drafts we've been in tbh.

Media doomsayers are throwing around headlines aimed to play on the anxieties of Richmond fans but one draft will not be relevant.

What will be relevant will be the ability to hold the list together and not lose players you need. Being able to walk into the rooms, look your players in the eye, and tell them you're a genuine shot at beating anyone will be 100x more valuable than adding an extra teenager.
 
CatToTheFuture said:
I think you are massively over rating the draft. Dempsey is $3.75 for the rising star and he was a rookie pick. Go look at Lawson Humphries highlights from his 2 games and just take a mental note that he was the second to last pick last year.

The 2011 Suns draft Geelong still picked up Cam Guthrie and Josh Walker. The 2012 GWS draft year we still added Blitz and Bews as well as some players that ended up elsewhere like McCarthy, Hamling, Kersten, and we got a fair few games from Murdoch. Those year's were better drafts for us than most of the drafts we've been in tbh.

Media doomsayers are throwing around headlines aimed to play on the anxieties of Richmond fans but one draft will not be relevant.

What will be relevant will be the ability to hold the list together and not lose players you need. Being able to walk into the rooms, look your players in the eye, and tell them you're a genuine shot at beating anyone will be 100x more valuable than adding an extra teenager.
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Try to win your next flag without draft.

No club in the history of AFL can win a flag without drafting.

The names you have named are decent draft pick ups to be built around the ablett, selwood, dangerfield.

Without the aforementioned 3, any good free agents are not that useful.

Richmond needs to rebuild the core with consecutive top 3 picks.

It's not that hard to build a flag team, it's just about timing. When you are good, you need to win the flags and when you are bad, you need to bottom out and get as many blue chip players as you can.

You really only need to nail 5 players to build a potential premiership team. The rest of the story is about getting the best supporting players for those 5 and that's where premierships are won or lost.
 

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ChairmanZia said:
Try to win your next flag without draft.

No club in the history of AFL can win a flag without drafting.

The names you have named are decent draft pick ups to be built around the ablett, selwood, dangerfield.

Without the aforementioned 3, any good free agents are not that useful.

Richmond needs to rebuild the core with consecutive top 3 picks.

It's not that hard to build a flag team, it's just about timing. When you are good, you need to win the flags and when you are bad, you need to bottom out and get as many blue chip players as you can.

You really only need to nail 5 players to build a potential premiership team. The rest of the story is about getting the best supporting players for those 5 and that's where premierships are won or lost.
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You mention three names that were not top 3 picks then say Richmond need consecutive top 3 picks. Even Ablett was drafted as a small forward. Modern equivalent would be turning Cody Weightman into a generational mid. Even our drafted core for 2007-2011 didn't have a top 3 pick. Last time I checked only 4 number 1 picks had won a premiership and 2 of those were playing for teams that didn't originally have that number 1 pick.

Your points just don't match the league history of the last 20 years.
 
CatToTheFuture said:
You mention three names that were not top 3 picks then say Richmond need consecutive top 3 picks. Even Ablett was drafted as a small forward. Modern equivalent would be turning Cody Weightman into a generational mid. Even our drafted core for 2007-2011 didn't have a top 3 pick. Last time I checked only 4 number 1 picks had won a premiership and 2 of those were playing for teams that didn't originally have that number 1 pick.

Your points just don't match the league history of the last 20 years.
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Errr geelong had a generational haul of father/son talent in early 2000s that won't happen for another 30 years at least.

You can argue they were not no.1 picks, they were still part of the draft.

You are trying to argue draft is not important but neglected the fact that geelong's longevity originated from the draft with some good free agency, namely dangerfield.

You don't have the core anymore and won't replicate the same core unless you go to bottom for extended period of time to get 5, 6 top 2 picks.

I don't think geelong will bottom out but then you won't get back to the top. AFL is a funny game where if you ain't in the top 4, you need to be bottom 4. The game rewards very good and bad but nothing in between.

Plus, the 2028 tasmania will be the big equalizer in that teams not properly stocked up with draft are f***ed.
 
ChairmanZia said:
Errr geelong had a generational haul of father/son talent in early 2000s that won't happen for another 30 years at least.

You can argue they were not no.1 picks, they were still part of the draft.

You are trying to argue draft is not important but neglected the fact that geelong's longevity originated from the draft with some good free agency, namely dangerfield.

You don't have the core anymore and won't replicate the same core unless you go to bottom for extended period of time to get 5, 6 top 2 picks.

I don't think geelong will bottom out but then you won't get back to the top. AFL is a funny game where if you ain't in the top 4, you need to be bottom 4. The game rewards very good and bad but nothing in between.

Plus, the 2028 tasmania will be the big equalizer in that teams not properly stocked up with draft are f***ed.
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We had one that was a natural number one pick. Scarlett and ablett were taken maybe half a dozen picks later then they would have in an open draft.

In any case. You're saying you need a drafted group of role players and you need about 5 elite players. By your count geelong would be about 3 trades off a premiership
 
CatToTheFuture said:
We had one that was a natural number one pick. Scarlett and ablett were taken maybe half a dozen picks later then they would have in an open draft.

In any case. You're saying you need a drafted group of role players and you need about 5 elite players. By your count geelong would be about 3 trades off a premiership
Click to expand...

If you can get 3 blue chip players, e.g. dangerfield
 
Val Keating said:
It’s funny, he was driving North supporters crazy on our board because “it’s a fact LDU is gone” while simultaneously posting posting shit on here.

Not sure he’s a troll, just a couple of sandwiches short of a picnic.
Click to expand...
Tom Jerry Cartoon GIF
 
ChairmanZia said:
Try to win your next flag without draft.

No club in the history of AFL can win a flag without drafting.
Click to expand...
What a nothing statement given that ALL CLUBS must make 3 changes to the list each year via the draft.

Ergo. Every flag is achieved via the draft.
 

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Speculation Luke Davies-Uniacke [RFA 2025]

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