We are on expectation.
2024
Pre season every expert (plus most supporters incl. me) had Essendon finishing in the 7-12 range*.
That’s where we will finish.
2023
Most said we were 4-6th last.
We overachieved..
It’s like some Shakespearean tragedy on steroids that has us overachieving early in the season then dropping back to expectation (or better in 2023).
Ignore Kingie, ignore Cornes, ignore Trevor from the mailroom. Yes it sucks. Yes late season capitulation needs to be addressed.
But some pre-season perspective is a valuable thing.
*Tried to find a bunch of pre season predictions but only came up with
Fox Footy 8-12
SEN Josh Jenkins 10
References -
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Wide-open finals race explained — including some shocks: Every AFL club’s ladder range for 2024
Wide-open finals race explained — including some shocks: Every AFL club’s ladder range for 2024www.foxsports.com.au
Josh Jenkins’ extended 2024 ladder prediction - 12 to 7
The former forward has given an extensive ladder prediction for the 2024 AFL season!www.sen.com.au
This is not about results and ladder position. That is a distraction. There are too many variables which are not directly within any side's control for the analysis to start with ladder position, at least in the context of a side that is in the 9 to 12 win no mans land in any given year.
Whether we are on track or not starts with the style of football which is being played. On this question, what has anyone seen in the last 2 seasons that causes them to think that we are a more substantial side by the end of July 2024 than what we were by the end of July 2021? The list should be much more advanced now. Brad's had them for 2 seasons. We're actually now into our fourth season of a rebuild. Caldwell, Perkins, Jones, Cox, Martin, Redman, Durham, Langford is just the start of the list of players who are or should be much more advanced. We haven't lost anyone meaningful due to age. Merrett is playing like a man possessed. Parish is an All Australian!
Some will say that the problem is the list and the players. If the list is the problem and Brad Scott or anyone else in a position of power thinks that is the case, why have we handed out so many long term deals in the last 12 months? Why have we re-signed 3 underwhelming first round picks in the last 6 weeks? Where is the scope to drive change among the uncontracted listed of players?
Look at the current contracts status thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/current-contract-status-afl-aflw-updated-in-op.1177710/
Does this read like a footy department that is concerned about its list? I couldn't help but tune in to Robbo last night (for what felt like the first time this year). He was talking about players playing for their careers. Who exactly was he referring to, the VFL players who weren't on that field against St Kilda? Are we going to end the careers of players with 12 to 24 months left on contracts, are we? How can Guelfi be playing for his career? Why would he be playing at all if his career was in doubt? Wouldn't we have replaced him with someone who has the capacity to be a functional small forward? Why are we already committed to a player like Jye Menzie for another season? We are locked into this course for another 12 to 24 months. This is how the every day operation makes it impossible for the culture to change.
What we are seeing, and what has been evident from very early on, is that Brad Scott almost certainly got the job because it was apparent to the decision makers that he had no real intention of challenging the status quo. Professional standards is bullshit as is challenging the players. That's what everyone else does and what everyone else tries to do with Essendon (it's actually much less than what Rutten was trying to do - his problem is that no one listened to him). That is not a challenge to the status quo. In any event, I thought that all worked anyway because players went to Arizona and he had that first year to look at the list and was then really big and bad at the end of 2023?
When you go back and listen to everything Scott has said his appeal to club was very likely that he wasn't going to challenge what had been done by Essendon previously. This is what Essendon is most scared of and which it will not allow. He didn't think any actual change or confrontation with what Essendon had produced was required. He would challenge Worsfold and Rutten and make them look stupid for not being able to have Essendon realise its potential. And here we are...
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