Mitch McGovern 2: As The Worm Turns (read the OP)

[GROTTO]

I’m worried the wheel will turn at some point

Cripps Setterfield Fisher Dow SPS is a good mix

Weitering Marchbank Plowman

Curnow McKay Gov forward

It’s on its way to improving but still need more

I love bagging the shit out of Carlton posters on here, but you are correct the wheel will turn.

With that said, you still need a lot to go right to do well and win games. I dont their current coach is the right guy, much the same with GWS.

The other issue, a lot of us thought GWS would be a powerhouse when they stockpiled all that talent and look at them now, still struggling to make it to GF day and also keep losing players along the way.

Another point is that at some stage they will get pillaged by other Victorian Clubs that want their players. When Carlton get out of the bottom 4, a bottom placed Vic team can easily snare a uncontracted player without any issues.

 

[GROTTO]

Not that it will mater but we have a good use for Kamikaze Douglas.

 

[mistylake]

I don’t care what mcadams rating is. We’ll never know. If he performs like Liam Ryan - yee hah

But I can’t get past the comment in the wa press back in 2015 that called him a “chance to get drafted” now this was after his good combine showing and pre injury. So presumably him at his best

How does a fit and healthy young bloke go from chance to be drafted to 3 years later being 10-15 (per Reid) on a handful of SANFL games?

Doesn’t make sense. If we’re backing his attributes and talent, he had those same ones when he was an outside shot at being picked up

Smells like Dean Gore to me.
I’m just going to forget he exists until proven otherwise.

 

[hey shorty]

Smells like Dean Gore to me.
I’m just going to forget he exists until proven otherwise.

You'll find out soon enough that hes no Dean Gore.

Clubs dont send their chief recruiters out to scout average vanilla players.

 

[ad victoriam]

Wonder if Sidebottom would still be at the club if we picked him instead of Dangerfield.

then Wonder if Milera would be at the Club if we did not trade Dangerfield.

 

[mistylake]

Bit like how we rubbished them and their silly claims about Doedee? Or Danger over Ebert?

The club reckon every draftee or trade is the second coming of Christ externally. The reality is not quite the same.

 

[ABAB]

Smells like Dean Gore to me.
I’m just going to forget he exists until proven otherwise.

Going just by the SANFL form, he is no Gore...….

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I love bagging the shit out of Carlton posters on here, but you are correct the wheel will turn.

With that said, you still need a lot to go right to do well and win games. I dont their current coach is the right guy, much the same with GWS.

The other issue, a lot of us thought GWS would be a powerhouse when they stockpiled all that talent and look at them now, still struggling to make it to GF day and also keep losing players along the way.

Another point is that at some stage they will get pillaged by other Victorian Clubs that want their players. When Carlton get out of the bottom 4, a bottom placed Vic team can easily snare a uncontracted player without any issues.

Bolton is for now but when they are good Teague will be coach

Diff between them and GWS is they are a sleeping giant melb powerhouse

See Richmond and Tom Lynch choice

 

[Stiffy_18]

If that really is true and we hear other recruiters back it up in the coming weeks, then it does spin how I view the trade on its head.

So is it now on Reid or Hamish as to whether McAdam lives up to the expectations of a 15-20 pick?

You don't? The club has spent more time lying in the media than any other activity this season.

This is all well and good but Adelaide have a long history now of rating players high on their list post event in order to give off good PR to members.

From The Age article from last night

The Crows will receive pick 13 and 23-year-old McAdam, who starred in the SANFL this year and was on the radar of many clubs, some of which rated him inside the top 20 in the draft.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...cgovern-to-become-a-blue-20181009-p508pq.html

Cal Twomey on trade week radio said that one of the rival club recruiters commented on the trade that McAdam could be a better player than Mitch McGovern.

https://omny.fm/shows/trade-radio/t...stan-foenande?in_playlist=trade-radio!podcast

Still in denial?! Couldn’t possibly be wrong, right?!

 

[mistylake]

Going just by the SANFL form, he is no Gore...….

Hope he’s more Rory Laird.
But in a forward sense.

 

[Golumless]

Have we drafted a generational SA talent this draft? I must have missed that part. Like I said, time will tell if it was worth taking a loss on this particular trade. Hopefully this move works out and leads to either Luko or Rankine. They are the only generational talents on offer. Rozee will be very good, but not worth trading two picks under 21 for.

If it does work out that way then I will eat my words. Especially if the deal to get them is done early and beats Port to the punch. But otherwise, I maintain that there was no need to cave. We should have held the line and been willing to walk away.

As a club we seem to have no strategy. Are we going for a flag and spending 2 firsts on Gibbs, while giving Sloane a ridiculous 5 year deal even though he can't break a tag. Not looking to take value on a mature Lynch. Ok, I can be on board with this. Lets do it. If so, I'd much rather have Gov next year than some 18 year old at pick 13 who wont be first team ready until 2021.

OR, are we going to optimize our list and get as much talent as we can to compliment the core of players like Laird and the Crouch boys. Ok, I can be on board with this too. So why the **** did we pay 2 firsts for Gibbs and why did we give Sloane that contract that his performances over the past 18 months haven't warranted.

I am a flexible fan. I can be on board for different ways forward. I am ready to back the club in. But they are doing contradictory things and taking us around in circles. The decision to spend two picks on Gibbs and the decision to trade out Gov for an 18 year old mid 1st round kid are completely counter productive to one another. The fact that we did both of these with the same club, and lost both trades, just pisses me off. I will get over it, but excuse me for not praising the club for their genius just yet.

Nah, our strategy for this and last year has been a case of maintaining status quo list quality wise whilst focusing on incurring as much early collateral in the 2018 draft. I.e. us preparing to transition away from this generation, however, there is a rather large benefit to bringing up players in a very competitive environment/we're in that limbo of a could be a competitor (as there is equal chance of us being top 4 and 8-12 next year)/general culture issues at play (I put the Sloane contract down to that)/committing to a full rebuild has a rather high fail rate, and we historically have little patience for coaches who don't make finals multiple years in a row.

You look at the Gibbs trade - the only reason that occurs in 2017 as opposed to never is because Lever and Cameron go, as that gives the excess amount of draft picks to make that deal comfortable. Two good role players for one top notch midfielder. Status quo list wise is maintained from it. From that we've also got 2 more picks in 2018, which is hugely important as we were well aware with how strong this draft was SA wise coming into it, and how rare it is to have an SA strong draft (if this draft plays out as expected, this is the strongest SA draft that has occurred since the mid 80s).

My actual guess is we were originally looking at letting Lynch take FA until Gov wanted to go. Seeing we did a pretty stunning back-flip with that as we weren't paying his demands and then caved in and met them in full around May/June.

Right now, Gibbs sits at a loss (fair enough one at that seeing it served a purpose), McGovern is a pass by the skin of the teeth seeing McAdams is around 20-40 in value (somehow, don't ask me why mature ages are so highly rated all of a sudden).

My take on the overall strategy for the next couple years is we're planning to stick to overall timeline of giving this side until 2020 and then gutting it (well that's going to happen anyway, and was always a factor in the past 2 years), but Gibbs is the last thing we're actively going to do with improving it with top end players. It's all about making sure we're in a position to quickly transition to being a competitor in 2022/2023.

 

[glengowan]

Someone said it earlier - we need a fully committed squad for 48 months. When you’re thinking of leaving, you’re not thinking of winning.

 

[the universal]

This is a reasonable deal. Not particularly disappointed by any stretch, and it's hard to see a better variant that isn't taken from a fan's wild, unrealistic dream scenario.

 

[RePete]

Carlton are getting some good young talent in but they still have to replace:
-Murphy - turning 32
-Simpson - turning 35
-Thomas - turning 32
-Kreuzer - turning 30
-Ed Curnow - turning 29
-Already lost Wright and probably Casbault

By the time their young players start to become competent - these guys will be on the way out. There list still has plenty of deadwood to cleanout. I wouldn't worry about them for another year or 4.

 

[Golumless]

I don’t care what mcadams rating is. We’ll never know. If he performs like Liam Ryan - yee hah

But I can’t get past the comment in the wa press back in 2015 that called him a “chance to get drafted” now this was after his good combine showing and pre injury. So presumably him at his best

How does a fit and healthy young bloke go from chance to be drafted to 3 years later being 10-15 (per Reid) on a handful of SANFL games?

Doesn’t make sense. If we’re backing his attributes and talent, he had those same ones when he was an outside shot at being picked up

Attitude could have been the red flag that stopped him from being drafted, seeing McAdam went from not being drafted to playing in a local country league within an off season. May have been someone who was a ridiculously gifted athlete but not super committed to it/thought it would happen without much effort. That's best case seeing i'm guessing we'd be very confident that he's grown up mentally.

Worst case is he's just been horribly overrated because Tim Kelly has made mature agers the hottest thing in the past year, overtaking ruckmen.

 

[GameofSloanes]

The gov deal is ok imo. I don't think we are planning on using pick 40, and needed to get this done to see if we can trade down the order for rankine. Luko may be unobtanium.
At the start of the trade period we were all saying top 10, Carlton posters were saying 26, ended in the middle so that is probably fair.
It does seem the club were happy to get rid of him, it wouldn't surprise me if he or his camp were the ones leaking info all year about the club.
As i predicted yesterday the narrative is that we rated mcadam at pick 15 but there is at least some evidence that others rate him about there as well. Worst case he would've been gone pick 30 i reckon

 

[cpt_lmadz]

Someone said it earlier - we need a fully committed squad for 48 months. When you’re thinking of leaving, you’re not thinking of winning.

West Coast went alright this year with Lycett and Gaff both thinking of leaving.

 

[ABAB]

And their opinion means what exactly? Being right/wrong isn't a democracy.

Okay, so not much debate with my post, 1 Carlton poster said he couldn't bother and the other one was comparing Gibbs' age to McGovern's age???
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...n-mitch-mcgovern.1207071/page-7#post-58390997

So I posted a thread and it got deleted with "No, thanks". Oh well, I still think we clearly won it, as I value Gibbs around 7 (he has been very durable all his career, played the entire season so he can play until mid 30 for another 5-6 years).

 

[GreyCrow]

Did you hear Justin Reid on 5aa tonight?

He was asked that very question and his answer was that Adelaide believed that McAdam would have gone somewhere between 15 and 20 in the draft.

On that basis they have valued McAdam as a pick 20.

Time will tell if you are a better judge of a player than the AFC - or not.

I looked at a few phantom drafts and nobody had him top 25.

Now the question is do the phantoms match the real draft?

 

[YKIMS]

I didn't say we lost a generational player. I said we haven't drafted one... yet. We lost a player that we are significantly better with, than with out, statistically. I don't recall us playing like a team with arguably the best forward lines in the AFL when Gov wasn't in the team. I personally don't see us getting close to a flag this year. I look at Sauce. And then Tex, Eddie and Sloane, who haven't been consistently good for a long time. And if that is a given, that we wont win a flag next year, then I am happy with the Gov trade.

But as much as I think on balance, our chances are very slim, I can see a scenario where if a number of ducks line up in a row it can happen. Tex, Eddie, Sloane, Brad Crouch, Smith, Matt Crouch all managing to get back to their best form of 2016/2017 and if Sauce can just break even, then I think we just might have a chance. Losing Gov just makes it that little bit less likely that we can do it, even with other things falling into place. It requires an additional level of performance to be reached by all our players to cover his loss as well.

Seriously?

All four had injury interrupted years last year. Tex and Sloane missed the equivalent of an entire season plus change. Sauce carried his injury almost all year and Eddie had multiple interruptions dating back to the pre-season.

Almost all four of them were AA squad members last season

All of those players had consistently strong years leading into 2018, more than half of them arguably had 'career years' heading into 2017 - so please define "for a long time"

Edit: All four WERE named in the 40 man AA squad last year....

 

[ftmch]

That was a shit deal for us. No doubt about it unless McAdam turns into a gun, which is not probable by any means. I'd be happy if McGovern was uncontracted, but he wasn't and we paid overs for Gibbs for that reason. Bottom line is we were bent over to get Gibbs and then got bent over for Carlton to take McGovern. Disappointing trade from the AFC unless McAdam works out to be a gun player, which doesn't happen very often with mature age recruits. Of course we all remember the one's that do, but the hit rate isn't that great. Tim Kelly's happen once every ten years.

If you're going to play the unproven potential card though, you have to apply that to Gov as well. He's still to 'turn into a gun' himself. If he doesn't - and lets be honest, it's a least a possibility given the question marks over both his durability and worth ethic - then that will also impact the perceived value we or Carlton have derived from the trade.

 

[Bay62]

Out of curiosity, do you know where WC took Ryan in the draft?

Not sure sorry. He did say Rioli was in the 50s so Macadam for essentially pick 40 was about right. I think he said maybe in the 30s?

 

[pjcrows]

Liam Ryan was Pick 26.

 

[SaltPeter]

Not sure sorry. He did say Rioli was in the 50s so Macadam for essentially pick 40 was about right. I think he said maybe in the 30s?

Pick 26 apparently

 

[Thetrader15]

The gov deal is ok imo. I don't think we are planning on using pick 40, and needed to get this done to see if we can trade down the order for rankine. Luko may be unobtanium.
At the start of the trade period we were all saying top 10, Carlton posters were saying 26, ended in the middle so that is probably fair.
It does seem the club were happy to get rid of him, it wouldn't surprise me if he or his camp were the ones leaking info all year about the club.
As i predicted yesterday the narrative is that we rated mcadam at pick 15 but there is at least some evidence that others rate him about there as well. Worst case he would've been gone pick 30 i reckon

From what I'm hearing, Luko is our target while Rankine is port's #1