Toast Path to finals - We're in the Eight baby!!

[The King!]

Well I am going away in week 2 and 3 of the finals and I am confident I won't be missing Sydney playing

 

[DobmusEdge]

Only team we play higher than 8th is Demons in the final round for Buddy’s SCG farewell.

Should make finals

 

[Swan4Life]

Only team we play higher than 8th is Demons in the final round for Buddy’s SCG farewell.

Should make finals

The annoying thing for me is that, despite a wretched year to date, if Heeney kicks one behind instead of two OOBOTF, if Hickey doesn't miss from 15m right in front and if Fox doesn't hit the post from point-blank range - all against Geelong - we'd be one win off fifth spot with a superior percentage to all teams ahead of us except for Geelong.

I just think that bloody draw is the straw that broke the camel's back.

 

[bloodsbigot]

The annoying thing for me is that, despite a wretched year to date, if Heeney kicks one behind instead of two OOBOTF, if Hickey doesn't miss from 15m right in front and if Fox doesn't hit the post from point-blank range - all against Geelong - we'd be one win off fifth spot with a superior percentage to all teams ahead of us except for Geelong.

I just think that bloody draw is the straw that broke the camel's back.

And if we'd have stopped Toby Greene going ballistic in the final minute and put a block on Allir we'd be clear fifth and one win away from 4th.

Life sucks hard sometimes.

On the bright side, Australia have the ashes and the cancer of tennis lost last night.

 

[bloodsbigot]

Should make finals

Absolutely.

I know lots of people would prefer missing finals and just getting a higher draft pick, but I would honestly rather see the swans give it a crack. Draft picks are hit or miss unless it's top 2 picks anyway. I think given this teams youth and experience, we could make a dent in finals.

 

[Swan4Life]

And if we'd have stopped Toby Greene going ballistic in the final minute and put a block on Allir we'd be clear fifth and one win away from 4th.

Life sucks hard sometimes.

On the bright side, Australia have the ashes and the cancer of tennis lost last night.

Or the wind gust on Florent's perfect kick vs Port.

What a rotten year.

 

[The King!]

or if we hadn't played such shit footy so often

 

[Swan4Life]

or if we hadn't played such s**t footy so often

We're cherry-picking - get with the programme Kingy!

 

[GoTheSwannies]

You make your own luck if you're good enough.

 

[BloodySwan]

Win every game and we make 5th
Drop 1 match and we make 8th

Why do they give me hope like this?

 

[Cadsky]

Win every game and we make 5th
Drop 1 match and we make 8th

Why do they give me hope like this?

The next 4 are all very winnable games

Bombers
Giants
Suns
Crows

Demons to finish the season will be the biggest test. But like you said, could drop 1 and still make it so if we can get on a run and win the next 4 we're a very good chance.

 

[the hypnotoad]

for a team beaten by 93 points we've done a fair job salvaging percentage ... not sure how much more we can pull back on the likes of geelong and carlton ... but those three other teams with draws are only a game ahead of us so it could be really important
it really looks like this will end up a "what if" season for us

 

[the hypnotoad]

and carlton, geelong and richmond all have tough games in their last five ... richmond also have north, but face melbourne next week
hopefully collingwood don't get caught out by carlton next week
we have essendon, the giants, crows and melbourne, so our fate is very much in our hands

 

[Swan4Life]

I reckon we miss by two points.

Two bloody points!

 

[ShireSwan]

My Ladder Predictor prediction; if we win all games till the final round.....

If the Giants beat Carlton in the last round we get the chance to knock Geelong out of the finals in the first week whether we win or lose against Melbourne in the final round. If Carlton beat the Giants and we lose to the Dees we play Dogs instead.

Obviously GWS will be the toughest game before the last round - lose to them and we must beat the Dees in the final round.

 

[wills2g]

The next 4 are all very winnable games

Bombers
Giants
Suns
Crows

Demons to finish the season will be the biggest test. But like you said, could drop 1 and still make it so if we can get on a run and win the next 4 we're a very good chance.

Usually go 1-1 against the Giants so we can pencil that one in
Crows just lost Rankine for a while so thats -4 goals
Suns and Bombers higher variance but should have them both covered

Melbourne at SCG who knows what can happen

 

[the hypnotoad]

My Ladder Predictor prediction; if we win all games till the final round.....

If the Giants beat Carlton in the last round we get the chance to knock Geelong out of the finals in the first week whether we win or lose against Melbourne in the final round. If Carlton beat the Giants and we lose to the Dees we play Dogs instead.

Obviously GWS will be the toughest game before the last round - lose to them and we must beat the Dees in the final round.

next week will be dangerous enough, essendon in shite form and need to play themselves back into the finals race
you'd like to think we're building into form and will see them off

 

[bloodsbigot]

for a team beaten by 93 points we've done a fair job salvaging percentage ...

West Coast eagles. Gotta love their charity.

 

[ShireSwan]

next week will be dangerous enough, essendon in shite form and need to play themselves back into the finals race
you'd like to think we're building into form and will see them off

We'll flog them.

Especially if Buddy keeps taking contested grabs we will make finals. Be great to beat Geelong in the first one.

 

[the hypnotoad]

West Coast eagles. Gotta love their charity.

ha, yeah ... very generous of them

 

[bloodsbigot]

Crows just lost Rankine for a while so thats -4 goals

Rankine going down today was great. He would have been the difference. He usually kills us. Without him I'm supremely confident beating Adelaide.

Gold Coast is nothing without Rankine. We'll get them easily.

2 easy wins.

 

[The King!]

 

[GoTheSwannies]

I put together a ladder, locking in the top 4 and bottom 4 teams. The middle 10 teams are in a race for spots 5-8 on the ladder.

In this hypothetical scenario, I've assumed each team will lose to a top 4 side, and will beat a bottom 8 side, and will split the games against the other 10 mid-tier teams (hence the teams that play the other mid-tier teams an odd number have a range).

Of course, each of the teams below are capable of beating a top 4 side, and could also drop a game against a bottom 4 side.

Of the 50 games below, 28 involve the mid-tier teams playing each other. 9 are against bottom 4 sides, 13 are against top 4 side.

Pos R19	Team	Points	R20	R21	R22	R23	R24	Points
4th	MEL	48
5th	WB	40	GWS	RIC	HAW	WCE	GEE	52-56
6th	STK	40	HAW	CAR	RIC	GEE	BRI	48-52
7th	GWS	40	WB	SYD	PA	ESS	CAR	48
8th	GEE	38	FRE	PA	COL	STK	WB	46
9th	CAR	38	COL	STK	MEL	GCS	GWS	42-46
10th	RIC	38	MEL	WB	STK	NM	PA	46
11th	ESS	36	SYD	WCE	NM	GWS	COL	48
12th	SYD	34	ESS	GWS	GCS	ADE	MEL	42
13th	ADE	32	PA	GCS	BRI	SYD	WCE	40
14th	GCS	32	BL	ADE	SYD	CAR	NM	40-44
15th	FRE	28

 

[bloodsbigot]

View attachment 1751514

Dr Jones: The name of God.

Punts: Nick Daicos

* Punts steps on the N and falls to his death*

 

[GoTheSwannies]

Hypothetical 1, detailed in the above post, we finish 12th. This scenario assumes we lose to Melbourne and drop 2 of the other 4 matches. This is the least likely scenario, but I used it as a starting point.

Team	Hyp 1 Pts	Hyp 1 Pos
WB	52-56	5th
STK	48-52	6th
GWS	48	7th
ESS	48	8th
GEE	46	9th
RIC	46	10th
CAR	42-46	11th
SYD	42	12th
GCS	40-44	13th
ADE	40	14th

Hypothetical 2 still assumes teams will beat bottom 4 sides and lose to top 4 sides. However, in this scenario, I have awarded the win against fellow mid-tier teams to the team with the higher %.

In this scenario, we lose against Adelaide in R23 and Melbourne in R24 to finish 9th on 46 points. However, we’re only 1.7% behind Adelaide, and given we’re projected to win the next 3 rounds, and Adelaide are expected to drop 2, we very well could be in front by the time we play them, paving the way for us to win the 4 matches we need to make finals heading into R24 against Melbourne.

Team	Hyp 2 Pts	Hyp 2 Pos
WB	56	5th
GEE	50	6th
CAR	50	7th
STK	48	8th
SYD	46	9th
GWS	44	10th
ADE	44	11th
ESS	44	12th
RIC	42	13th
GCS	36	14th

Hypothetical 3 still assumes teams will beat bottom 4 sides and lose to top 4 sides. However, in this scenario, I have awarded the win against fellow mid-tier teams to the team with the best form over the last 5 rounds (based purely off W/L/D, so a fairly crude representation of form – GWS & CAR both 5/5 so are assumed to beat other mid-tier teams).

In this scenario, we beat Adelaide on form, but lose to GWS, leaving us on 46 points, with the 8th team on 50 points (the highest of the 3 hypothetical scenarios).

Team	Hyp 3 pts	Hyp 3 pos
GWS	52​	5th
GEE	50​	6th
CAR	50​	7th
RIC	50​	8th
WB	48​	9th
SYD	46​	10th
STK	44​	11th
ESS	44​	12th
GCS	40​	13th
ADE	36​	14th

We miss finals in each of the 3 scenarios, which demonstrates how big a challenge it will be to get there, but scenario 2 gives us the best chance and is hopefully how things will pan out for us. Of course we can always book our finals ticket against Melbourne in R24 if we happen to drop one of the other 4 matches.