Players who carried the team on their back

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Tom Lynch post dynasty Tigers from 2021-current.

With Lynch playing Richmond's record is 22w, 2d, 22l. 50% win rate.

Without Lynch it is 13-1-33. 29% win rate.

You will probably struggle to find a player in the AFL who is more important to his team's winning chances than T Lynch at Richmond.
How much of this is just correlation due to the lack of cattle now, when he’s been most injury prone though?

Would be interested in that same breakdown by season. I don’t think it would be as large, but obviously the Tigers are still better when Lynch is available so there would still be a difference
 
How much of this is just correlation due to the lack of cattle now, when he’s been most injury prone though?

Would be interested in that same breakdown by season. I don’t think it would be as large, but obviously the Tigers are still better when Lynch is available so there would still be a difference

Good question. Not a lot of data without Lynch in his first 2 seasons at Tigers.

2019 Lynch played every game, 19w 6l.

2020 With Lynch 14w 1d 4l v w/o Lynch 1w 1l(won v very weak Crows team rd 18)

But 2020 you can probably glean more from Richmond's 4 finals.....

1 without Lynch 0-1
3 with Lynch 3-0

Then post dynasty:

2021 With Lynch 7-1-10. W/o Lynch 2w-2l.(wins v Crows & Bombers)

2022 With Lynch 12-7. W/o Lynch 1w 1d 2l(win v Port 12 pts MCG, draw v Fremantle/lost v North)

2023 With Lynch 1-1-2(beatan by Premier & 9th team, drew finalist, beat strong 10th team away i/s - Crows).
W/0 Lynch 9w 10l(wins v 6th 7th 8th teams were the best, all 3 weaker % than 10th placed Crows)

2024 With Lynch 1-3(win v GF team Swans). W/o Lynch 1-19(win v 15th placed Crows.)

2025 With Lynch 1-0 v Blues. W/o Lynch 0-1 drubed by Port.


To me that is strong empirical evidence Lynch's presence makes a huge difference to Richmond. There is definitely some credence to your point but the simplest way to say it is since Lynch caame to the club 6 years ago Richmond has beaten only 1 team that has won a final without him playing, and he has missed 50 games. From likely around 23 games v teams who made the finals that year, when Lynch did not play Richmond were around 4w 19l. v teams who won finals the record would be around 1w 11l.

Why is he so important to the Tigers? I have looked into this carefully before. When he plays our accuracy improves a fair bit. You would expect this as he gets us shots from better positions. But the effect you wouldn't be expected to guess correctly is we concede much lower scoring & lower accuracy in the games he plays. This is because Richmond can set up better behind the ball knowing Lynch will compete extremely well v an outnumber. You can see that in the 2 scorelines so far this season represented perfectly:

v 2 vaguely similar standard teams

w/Lynch 13.4 v 9.15 Blues

without Lynch 9.14 v 21.14

I have not studied all players from other teams to compare, but I doubt there is a player who has a more stark impact on results & scorelines for his team than Tom Lynch since he came to Richmond.
 
Shane Crawford in late 90s Hawthorn, did not have much support around him.
He's 1999 Brownlow year is underrated when it comes to beat seasons ever. We only won 9 games including the last 4 and he was just a giant all year. Multiple 30 plus posession games with the odd 40 plus in a poor team. Did the same in 1998 too. 97-99 that 3 year period he was a beast, than 2002-2003 was elite once again.
 
Lenny Hayes put us on his back for the entirety of 2010, not just the draw. After Roo ripped his hammy, we would have been cooked had he not rallied the group. Kept us in a good position despite Rooey’s absence highlighting some glaring holes. Still fuming he got robbed of AA that year, won our b&f by a street ahead of other AA’s Montagna and Goddard.
 
I would argue Selwood had plenty of help. Literally stepped into a premiership team with all time greats.
Stepped into a team that finished 10th actually and finished 5th in the League MVP in just his second season.

But the period he truly did it was when the 2007-2011 dynasty ended and all of its other stars declined/retired. The 5 years that followed especially, with the last in that sequence being a two man job (Dangerfield arriving 2016).

Did Meteoric Rise just like a post recognising that Geelong side as a team of all time greats?! He has knocked his head on the weekend.
 

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In recent times Elliott Yeo. Nic Nat at times before that. Not only one player but Judd Cousins Kerr carried that mid 00s Eagles side like no other team I've seen.
 

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Players who carried the team on their back


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