Unofficial Preview Prelim discussion v Demons/Blues / Gunston watch.

[dlanod]

Looking for a preview writer for it!

PM me!

Edit: thanks Section 5

 

[Gadzorks]

The melts on this board next Thursday night are gunna be next level. I’m here for it.

Fages should name him, with no intention of playing him, and just withdraw him prior to the game. All for the theatre of it all.

And also to get Elixuh up and about, who I must say, I originally thought was taking the piss wanting the “king” back in, but now I’m not so sure.

Do I need to join an actors guild in preparation?

 

[3KZ is Football]

And they sent this right back! Look at him move!!

Mate, I can move faster than that and I’m on crutches.

 

[Elixuh]

Mate, I can move faster than that and I’m on crutches.

Look at the use of the body to stun the defender and all the defender can do is put his hands on his hips in shock at how elite gunners is.

 

[M Malice]

Look at the use of the body to stun the defender and all the defender can do is put his hands on his hips in shock at how elite gunners is.

IMO Gunston has another 3Peat in him, extend him to the end of 2025 before another club snatches him form under our noses.

 

[3KZ is Football]

 

[3KZ is Football]

And they sent this right back! Look at him move!!

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

Halfway through last year Melbourne looked unbeatable while by the end of the year Geelong were clearly the best side. In the last third of this year Collingwood, Melbourne and Port have tailed off somewhat which has left me bullish about our chances of winning the flag.

 

[Viceregal]

IMO Gunston has another 3Peat in him, extend him to the end of 2025 before another club snatches him form under our noses.

You need to work on your trolling technique if you are going to join the Elixuh / Nunez clique ... not that I would recommend that of course

 

[3KZ is Football]

Halfway through last year Melbourne looked unbeatable while by the end of the year Geelong were clearly the best side. In the last third of this year Collingwood, Melbourne and Port have tailed off somewhat which has left me bullish about our chances of winning the flag.

It got very real after the Port game. The players know this is their year.

 

[Nunez]

Halfway through last year Melbourne looked unbeatable while by the end of the year Geelong were clearly the best side. In the last third of this year Collingwood, Melbourne and Port have tailed off somewhat which has left me bullish about our chances of winning the flag.

Feel the same - not as a Lions fan but genuinely as a football fan. Our best 22 is very balanced and no team comes close to our forward line.

 

[Nunez]

You need to work on your trolling technique if you are going to join the Elixuh / Nunez clique ... not that I would recommend that of course

BRAB hasn't even been approved to join our clique, such is how hard it is!

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Feel the same - not as a Lions fan but genuinely as a football fan. Our best 22 is very balanced and no team comes close to our forward line.

Jack Gunston strongly disagrees with you on that

 

[3KZ is Football]

BRAB hasn't even been approved to join our clique, such is how hard it is!

This Clique thing is finally catching on. I like it.

 

[3KZ is Football]

 

[Grasshopper17]

Great overall post. I have a couple of queries about this but it would take a huge amount of effort to actually work these out properly. I'm not sure this kind of analysis works unless you also factor in: (a) strength of opposition faced and (b) whether the teams replaced the player with a tall or a small.

For us, we clearly went small without Gunston. However, I'm pretty sure Melbourne has replaced grundy across the year by bringing in JVR, playing petty forward, and often bringing in one of McDonald or Brown. Similarly Mason Cox played a lot in the period McStay was out.

I do agree with your overall points about the way the game is going, but not sure the data is quite this strong?

Very interesting points. I'm not going to do any analysis on (b) because it's a bit subjective, and also the player(s) those guys may have been replaced by were most likely different from one match to the other. On JVR however, he's played 20 games this year and the vast majority of those were with Grundy in the team as well. I'm not going to go into the others you've mentioned: too hard basket Similarly McStay and Cox have played 8 (of McStay's 11) games together.

However your other point (a) is something I'm able to review, and have done so using the methodology I described around the bye period. The results are interesting, and far from uniform:

Team		Win - Loss record	Average points scored	Average points conceded	Percentage
Collingwood	with McStay	12 - 1	101.6	75.3	134.9
	without McStay	8 - 3	89.3	65.0	137.3
Brisbane	with Gunston	11 - 6	96.3	77.5	124.2
	without Gunston	6 - 1	124.1	72.9	170.3
Port Adelaide	with Dixon	8 - 5	99.3	78.5	126.5
	without Dixon	9 - 2	95.5	89.9	106.2
Melbourne	with Grundy	13 - 4	87.7	72.0	121.8
	without Grundy	5 - 2	94.1	74.4	126.6
Carlton	with McKay	10 - 10	79.3	74.6	106.3
	without McKay	3 - 1	96.0	75.6	127.0
GWS	with Hogan	11 - 10	91.9	89.6	102.6
	without Hogan	3 - 0	100.5	59.9	167.9
St Kilda	with King	6 - 5	75.1	80.3	93.5
	without King	7 - 6	78.3	69.3	112.9
Sydney	with Franklin	7 - 6	89.5	89.6	99.9
	without Franklin	10 - 1	88.0	71.3	123.3

So Collingwood flip to having a better win-loss record with McStay in the team. Port Adelaide flip to having a better percentage with Dixon, but still a worse win-loss record. Melbourne flip to having a better percentage without Grundy, altho it was already close to begin with.

The rest however (including Brisbane) have arguably been better off without the key forward mentioned, even allowing for who they've played.

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

The seconds play at Werribbee on Saturday.

Look for me in the hand knitted jumper

 

[3KZ is Football]

Very interesting points. I'm not going to do any analysis on (b) because it's a bit subjective, and also the player(s) those guys may have been replaced by were most likely different from one match to the other. On JVR however, he's played 20 games this year and the vast majority of those were with Grundy in the team as well. I'm not going to go into the others you've mentioned: too hard basket Similarly McStay and Cox have played 8 (of McStay's 11) games together.

However your other point (a) is something I'm able to review, and have done so using the methodology I described around the bye period. The results are interesting, and far from uniform:

Team		Win - Loss record	Average points scored	Average points conceded	Percentage
Collingwood	with McStay	12 - 1	101.6	75.3	134.9
	without McStay	8 - 3	89.3	65.0	137.3
Brisbane	with Gunston	11 - 6	96.3	77.5	124.2
	without Gunston	6 - 1	124.1	72.9	170.3
Port Adelaide	with Dixon	8 - 5	99.3	78.5	126.5
	without Dixon	9 - 2	95.5	89.9	106.2
Melbourne	with Grundy	13 - 4	87.7	72.0	121.8
	without Grundy	5 - 2	94.1	74.4	126.6
Carlton	with McKay	10 - 10	79.3	74.6	106.3
	without McKay	3 - 1	96.0	75.6	127.0
GWS	with Hogan	11 - 10	91.9	89.6	102.6
	without Hogan	3 - 0	100.5	59.9	167.9
St Kilda	with King	6 - 5	75.1	80.3	93.5
	without King	7 - 6	78.3	69.3	112.9
Sydney	with Franklin	7 - 6	89.5	89.6	99.9
	without Franklin	10 - 1	88.0	71.3	123.3

So Collingwood flip to having a better win-loss record with McStay in the team. Port Adelaide flip to having a better percentage with Dixon, but still a worse win-loss record. Melbourne flip to having a better percentage without Grundy, altho it was already close to begin with.

The rest however (including Brisbane) have arguably been better off without the key forward mentioned, even allowing for who they've played.

#ItsScientific

 

[CarterS]

On the news they said "Brisbane are leaning towards leaving him out even if he is 100% fit"

 

[martinson]

On the news they said "Brisbane are leaning towards leaving him out even if he is 100% fit"

My personal belief is that there's zero chance of us playing Gunston.

Mainly because I don't think our brains trust is that stupid.

Whether he makes it as sub or not isn't critical because I haven't seen a sub influence a game overly yet , but say someone went down in the first half in a hectic game you wouldn't want the player coming on to be him.

It's all just a beat up because what else have they got to talk about re Brisbane. The side is humming along and barring injuries we've got a great chance of making it to the GF.

 

[Nunez]

My personal belief is that there's zero chance of us playing Gunston.

Mainly because I don't think our brains trust is that stupid.

Whether he makes it as sub or not isn't critical because I haven't seen a sub influence a game overly yet , but say someone went down in the first half in a hectic game you wouldn't want the player coming on to be him.

It's all just a beat up because what else have they got to talk about re Brisbane. The side is humming along and barring injuries we've got a great chance of making it to the GF.

If I had to play Lyons or Gunston for four quarters, I'd choose Gunston.

 

[Happy_Neale]

My personal belief is that there's zero chance of us playing Gunston.

Mainly because I don't think our brains trust is that stupid.

Whether he makes it as sub or not isn't critical because I haven't seen a sub influence a game overly yet , but say someone went down in the first half in a hectic game you wouldn't want the player coming on to be him.

It's all just a beat up because what else have they got to talk about re Brisbane. The side is humming along and barring injuries we've got a great chance of making it to the GF.

The issue for me is it simultaneously contradicts and agrees with our selection principles over the Fagan years. Gunston is what you would consider a ‘pet’ but we have also been known to pick and stick in finals. I really wouldn’t be surprised either way honestly but hoping like hell we leave him out.

 

[martinson]

If I had to play Lyons or Gunston for four quarters, I'd choose Gunston.

That's a hard one actually

It depends who went down doesn't it.

I think I'd probably go Lyons but wish I had other choices.

Looks like Fullarton's on the outer. You wouldn't trust Cockatoo to make it through a game . Lohman's done . Matho ?

Or Fort ? If it was a tall who went down I'd take Fort.

Not much else lying around. It's a shame about Ashy but if he's the only one we can't consider we're ahead of the rest this year injury wise.

 

[M Malice]

That's a hard one actually

It depends who went down doesn't it.

I think I'd probably go Lyons but wish I had other choices.

Looks like Fullarton's on the outer. You wouldn't trust Cockatoo to make it through a game . Lohman's done . Matho ?

Or Fort ? If it was a tall who went down I'd take Fort.

Not much else lying around. It's a shame about Ashy but if he's the only one we can't consider we're ahead of the rest this year injury wise.

We don't look beat up like a few of the other sides either, after the rests we have been getting lately we should go into the Prelim fresh as daisies and raring to go.

We have won 5 on the trot since the Suns loss, it would be a fantastic opportunity lost and an under achievement if we didn't make the big dance from here.

 

[BRAB]

On the news they said "Brisbane are leaning towards leaving him out even if he is 100% fit"

Fages making a big mistake leaving 10 goals on the table

 

[M Malice]

Fages making a big mistake leaving 10 goals on the table

Crazy Fages.