Rarest achievements in VFL/AFL history - Reynolds and Matthews

[The J Dog]

Fact: There have been 12,486 VFL/AFL players since 1897.

Keeping the criteria for rarest achievements to feats that have been in place for close to 100 years (e.g. excluding Norm Smith medal winners), and not based on arbitrary statistics (e.g. 100 goals in a season - achieved by only 28 players), among these players there have been:

• 93 who've won a best and fairest in a premiership season. Odds of achievement about 1 in 134.
• 86 who were season leading goal kickers. Odds 1 in 145.
  
• 84 Brownlow winners. Odds 1 in 149.
  
• 82 premiership captains. Odds 1 in 152.
  
• 51 premiership coaches (noting that all premiership coaches have been former players). Odds 1 in 245.

There are two players who have achieved four out of five of these feats.

• Dick Reynolds
  
• Leigh Matthews

There are another 10 players to have achieved three out of five feats.

• Dan Minogue – Note: Played most of his career before the Brownlow
  
• Cliff Rankin – Note: Played most of his career before the Brownlow. Still not in the AFL hall of fame.
  
• Syd Coventry
  
• Harry Collier
  
• Jack Dyer
  
• John Coleman
  
• Ron Barassi
  
• Malcolm Blight
  
• Michael Voss
  
• Chris Judd

I'm no rocket scientist, or bookmaker, but by my logic the chances of any player doing what Reynolds and Matthews did is over 700 million to 1. The chances of achieving three out of five feats is between 3 million and 5 million to 1 depending on the combination.

Not sure if it qualifies as empirical evidence (shout out to Senator Malcolm Roberts) but this list is also a pretty good indicator of genuine legend status.

 

[Wallaby]

Good idea about ranking the 'achievements' - I could quibble about what are important and what are not, but I like the idea.

As for your maths, unfortunately you are not dealing with discrete probabilities. Nor are you dealing with purely random events. Not every player has the same chance at achieving those feats - it depends on the raw ability of the player.

For example. You correctly identified that being B&F in a premiership year is a pretty small number. However, once you have that, the chance of a B&F in a premiership year also being a premiership captain is (relatively) high. Ditto for a premiership coach.

A best and Fairest is much more likely to be a Brownlow medallist than a player who never won a B&F. (I know about the exceptions).

Leading goalkickers - good chance of B&F. Also, a surprising number of FFs and key forwards have been coaches - the obvious thought is 'Selfish, one-dimensional players' - but, Norm Smith, Jack Titus, Blight, Coleman - there's a few.

 

[frenchfri12]

Kick over 1300 goals - 1 in 12,486 players
Win the brownlow as a Full forward - 1 in 12,486 players
Retire on exactly 281 games - 1 in 12,486

Tony Lockett - 1 in 1,946,569,847,256

or almost 1 in 2 trillion.

 

[FootyJunkie]

i want a thread that ranks all 12,486 players

 

[The J Dog]

Good idea about ranking the 'achievements' - I could quibble about what are important and what are not, but I like the idea.

As for your maths, unfortunately you are not dealing with discrete probabilities. Nor are you dealing with purely random events. Not every player has the same chance at achieving those feats - it depends on the raw ability of the player.

For example. You correctly identified that being B&F in a premiership year is a pretty small number. However, once you have that, the chance of a B&F in a premiership year also being a premiership captain is (relatively) high. Ditto for a premiership coach.

A best and Fairest is much more likely to be a Brownlow medallist than a player who never won a B&F. (I know about the exceptions).

Leading goalkickers - good chance of B&F. Also, a surprising number of FFs and key forwards have been coaches - the obvious thought is 'Selfish, one-dimensional players' - but, Norm Smith, Jack Titus, Blight, Coleman - there's a few.

How's this?

Matthews
Odds of Coleman = 86/12486
Odds of Coleman winner also being Premiership year B&F winner = 6/93
Odds of Premiership year B&F winner also being Premiership captain = 20/82
Odds of Premiership captain also being Premiership coach = 21/51
Odds of being Premiership B&F and not Brownlow winner =71/84
Odds of all five events together = 1/26,510

Reynolds
Odds of Brownlow = 84/12486
Odds of Brownlow winner also being Premiership year B&F winner = 13/93
Odds of Premiership year B&F winner also being Premiership captain = 20/82
Odds of Premiership captain also being Premiership coach = 21/51
Odds of being Premiership B&F and not Coleman winner =78/84
Odds of all five events together = 1/27,141

 

[The J Dog]

i want a thread that ranks all 12,486 players

It's available, but you have to pay for it.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-01-24/the-new-moneyball

 

[GreyCrow]

Malcolm Blight

Leading Goalkicker in the VFL
Leading Goalkicker in the SANFL
Brownlow Medallist in the VFL
Magarey Medallist in the SANFL
State Captain Victoria
State Captain South Australia

 

[Damon_3388]

Malcolm Blight

Leading Goalkicker in the VFL
Leading Goalkicker in the SANFL
Brownlow Medallist in the VFL
Magarey Medallist in the SANFL
State Captain Victoria
State Captain South Australia

VFL Premiership player x2
AFL Premiership coach x2

A very unique resume.

 

[Wallaby]

Kevin Bartlett

400 Games
8000 kicks
700 goals
State Captain Victoria
Norm Smith Medal
5 Premierships
5 B&Fs.
5 Handballs

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

Kevin Bartlett

400 Games
8000 kicks
700 goals
State Captain Victoria
Norm Smith Medal
5 Premierships
5 B&Fs.
5 Handballs

. pics or gtfo.

 

[frenchfri12]

How's this?

Lockett already smashed them.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Kevin Bartlett

400 Games
8000 kicks
700 goals
State Captain Victoria
Norm Smith Medal
5 Premierships
5 B&Fs.
5 Handballs

I heard only 3 handballs, 2 were to himself therefor no longer counted

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Danny Nicholls (Collingwood - 2007).

The only person I'm aware of with career negative supercoach points.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Haydn Bunton Snr and Matt Priddis are the only players to have taken out the Sandover/Brownlow double.

And both won their Sandovers playing for Subiaco in the WAFL.

 

[GreyCrow]

Haydn Bunton Snr and Matt Priddis are the only players to have taken out the Sandover/Brownlow double.

And both won their Sandovers playing for Subiaco in the WAFL.

On Haydyn Bunton Sr , won 3 Sandovers and 3 Brownlows. The only footballer to do so. He is also the only footballer to have averaged 1 Brownlow vote per game over his career. Haydn Bunton Jr also won the Sandover Medal in 1962 capping a rare Father-Son honour.

 

[Wallaby]

Keith Miller

Played for Austrlia in a test match - March 30 1946.
PLayed for St Kilda in a VFL match - April 22 1946. Just over 3 weeks later.

Maybe not the record, but does anyone know of any shorter break? (Max Walker was about 3 months).

 

[emuboy]

Scott Simister played in the AFL for Melbourne (including the Demons' 1993 reserve grade premiership); in the VFA/VFL for Springvale (now Casey) and Frankston; in the SANFL for West Adelaide and in the WAFL for Peel Thunder and East Fremantle.

George Collard and Ken Newton are the only players in AFL/VFL history to have played for both the premiership and wooden spoon team in the same seasons. Collard played for Carlton (premiers) and South Melbourne (last) in 1938, while Ken Newton played for both Essendon (premiers) and Hawthorn (last) in 1950.

Roy Park was the leading goal-kicker in the home & away season in 1913 with the winless University side.

 

[Interceptor]

Keith Miller

Played for Austrlia in a test match - March 30 1946.
PLayed for St Kilda in a VFL match - April 22 1946. Just over 3 weeks later.

Maybe not the record, but does anyone know of any shorter break? (Max Walker was about 3 months).

Don't have any dates, but Craig Bradley toured England in the early 80s with the Australian U/19 team during the football season and then came back to play with Port.

 

[Kwality]

Pops Heal played in the 1941 VFL premiership & one week later played in the WANFL flag.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stan_Heal

Good trick Pops !!!

 

[GreyCrow]

Pops Heal played in the 1941 VFL premiership & one week later played in the WANFL flag.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stan_Heal

Good trick Pops !!!

Royce Hart nearly did this , he was allowed to do this with Richmond and Glenelg due to National Service requirements.

. Hart had been the star player, winning his first best and fairest award, and he was made All-Australian after the 1969 Adelaide Carnival. This was a remarkable effort as he was based in Adelaide with the Royal Australian Artillery as part of his National Service. During the year, he actually trained with South Australian league club Glenelg and flew to Melbourne for matches. When Glenelg made the SA Grand Final, they asked Hart to play in the match. This move wasn't well received, particularly when it became known that Hart would get $2000 for 100 minutes of football. The opposition Sturt players took matters into their own hands and Hart was knocked out early in the game. He had little impact as Glenelg slipped to a loss.

 

[35Daicos]

Royce Hart nearly did this , he was allowed to do this with Richmond and Glenelg due to National Service requirements.

. Hart had been the star player, winning his first best and fairest award, and he was made All-Australian after the 1969 Adelaide Carnival. This was a remarkable effort as he was based in Adelaide with the Royal Australian Artillery as part of his National Service. During the year, he actually trained with South Australian league club Glenelg and flew to Melbourne for matches. When Glenelg made the SA Grand Final, they asked Hart to play in the match. This move wasn't well received, particularly when it became known that Hart would get $2000 for 100 minutes of football. The opposition Sturt players took matters into their own hands and Hart was knocked out early in the game. He had little impact as Glenelg slipped to a loss.

I've heard this Royce Hart story told plenty of times over the years and the theme is invariably the same; the tough South Australians sorted out the interloper from the VFL and sent him packing! The story really fits into the urban myth category. There's some interesting reading on the topic in the following thread, there's also 15 or so minutes of footage from the game, and it's clear that Hart actually played quite well:-

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/sanfl-1969-grand-final.1075693/

 

[footyfan1978]

Keith Miller

Played for Austrlia in a test match - March 30 1946.
PLayed for St Kilda in a VFL match - April 22 1946. Just over 3 weeks later.

Maybe not the record, but does anyone know of any shorter break? (Max Walker was about 3 months).

Don't have any dates, but Craig Bradley toured England in the early 80s with the Australian U/19 team during the football season and then came back to play with Port.

Craig Bradley was in Perth on 12th March 1990 playing for Victoria in Sheffield Shield game with guys like Jamie Siddons, Damien Fleming and Paul Reiffel. He was caught by James Brayshaw in first innings.

19 days later he was playing opening round of AFL season against Sydney at Princes Park.