Preview Round 10 - Sydney vs Carlton @ Marvel Stadium, Friday Night Lights

[hairy biker]

Clearances are our bogie and we've just lost a mid we can ill afford to lose.

I'm all for the calls to bring Campbell back in but I'm more interested to where and how we shuffle the rest of the team to replace Rowbottom in the middle. Does Heeney spend most of his time there?

I find it interesting looking at the breakdown of clearances.
Carlton are the best in the comp at centre clearances (ave 15 per game), we average 12 (10th in the comp).
However our stoppage clearance numbers are better (24.6) than Carlton's (22.7).

I mentioned before the Essendon game I was surprised how many centre bounces Papley attended in the Brisbane match.
He had 6 (nil clearances) whereas JPK had 2 attendances for 1 clearance.

Against Essendon Papley was at 9 centre bounces (1 clearance). JPK attended 2 for 2 clearances. (Rowbottom was at 11 for 3 clearances).

I know we want to be more dynamic at centre bounces, get a bit more speed, even keep Papley involved in the game.
And yes we can't keep relying on Kennedy. But last 2 weeks he has had 3 clearances from 4 centre bounces attendances. He can still get the job done.
I'd have him in there from the start against Carlton.

 

[RubbaDuck]

Whilst I think it was one of the worst MRO decisions I've ever seen, I am indifferent to Rowbottom being out as I haven't liked his year at all and I also think it may force our midfield to be less defensive (unless we just decide to use Mills or, God forbid, Clarke, in that role.)

We simply cannot afford to bother trying to "shut down" any of Carlton's mids, as they just have too many. Shut down Cripps or Walsh, OK... you've still got George, Cerra, Kennedy...

If our best midfield performances this year (vs GWS, West Coast, Hawthorn, Essendon) have shown anything it's that it can only perform strongly when there's all hands on deck. Just can't afford to have one of them running around focusing on an opponent rather than the ball at this stage.

Keep it simple, Campbell in.

I agree a pure tagger isn't the way to go and I think both coaches will instead be looking for midfield matchups to their advantage

Kennedy has shown he can curb Cripp's influence and get his own ball. He's always been able to negate the work of other mids while still getting plenty of his own ball. Last year he took Martin at the centre bounce and was just too strong. He'd bump him off balance so he couldn't get to the contest and even Dusty's 'don't argues' didn't work on Kennedy. When he faces a pure extrator, like he did a few years back with Mitchell at his Brownlow peak, he just curbed him by beating him to the ball, so he had no real drop in his own numbers - at least until he was badly injured. Mills can also go with just about anyone without having to apply a hard tag. There's going to be a lot of shuffling of the midfield deck chairs in this game.

My concern is more with guys like Warner who need to play their natural game but will have to at least keep their opponents honest. It may come down to a team effort, which is another reason why Joey must play all four quarters. Kennedy, Mills and Parker have played a lot of footy together. Between them they'll need to orchestrate a coordinated response and be able to adapt the midfield as the game evolves. Horse needs to let them take the reins (no pun intended).

Tackling needs to be super good this week. Too many missed tackles lately and it'll be harder if Rowbum is out. Horse should have the players drilling their tackles. Our hard running speedsters need to be working hard both ways, breaking lines for us but also sticking tackles or at least putting pressure on any Carlton player who breaks into space. Blakey was in good form last week but I want to see McInerney putting more in defensively as well as creating run. When McInerney's patrolling the wing he gets to a lot of contests but he needs to impact them more. He's managing just one tackle for every three games, the worst in our team. Even Stephens lays three times as many tackles as McInerney does. Justin's a bit of a barometer for us, when he's flying we often are, but I worry he can be a downhill skier. I'd like to see him make as least as many tackles as Blakey does.

 

[SGBeach]

I think his numbers going up can be explained quite easily by far greater TOG% and CBAs, but to me he is a shadow of the player he was in his first few years.

Hes been given a different role, a more defensive role, and as such, more responsibility.
The fact that his numbers are going up is a pretty decent indication of his improvement

 

[caesar88]

I agree a pure tagger isn't the way to go and I think both coaches will instead be looking for midfield matchups to their advantage

Kennedy has shown he can curb Cripp's influence and get his own ball. He's always been able to negate the work of other mids while still getting plenty of his own ball. Last year he took Martin at the centre bounce and was just too strong. He'd bump him off balance so he couldn't get to the contest and even Dusty's 'don't argues' didn't work on Kennedy. When he faces a pure extrator, like he did a few years back with Mitchell at his Brownlow peak, he just curbed him by beating him to the ball, so he had no real drop in his own numbers - at least until he was badly injured. Mills can also go with just about anyone without having to apply a hard tag. There's going to be a lot of shuffling of the midfield deck chairs in this game.

My concern is more with guys like Warner who need to play their natural game but will have to at least keep their opponents honest. It may come down to a team effort, which is another reason why Joey must play all four quarters. Kennedy, Mills and Parker have played a lot of footy together. Between them they'll need to orchestrate a coordinated response and be able to adapt the midfield as the game evolves. Horse needs to let them take the reins (no pun intended).

Tackling needs to be super good this week. Too many missed tackles lately and it'll be harder if Rowbum is out. Horse should have the players drilling their tackles. Our hard running speedsters need to be working hard both ways, breaking lines for us but also sticking tackles or at least putting pressure on any Carlton player who breaks into space. Blakey was in good form last week but I want to see McInerney putting more in defensively as well as creating run. When McInerney's patrolling the wing he gets to a lot of contests but he needs to impact them more. He's managing just one tackle for every three games, the worst in our team. Even Stephens lays three times as many tackles as McInerney does. Justin's a bit of a barometer for us, when he's flying we often are, but I worry he can be a downhill skier. I'd like to see him make as least as many tackles as Blakey does.

Yeah I've been saying our lack of accountability in the mids is an issue all year. The only mids we have who can play accountable footy are Mills and Rowbottom (and he is too accountable.) So I think it's just not worth trying this week and just going all out attack. Let's just try and win as much ball as possible, try and win the territory battle. At least then the Blues might end up reactive.

I see the midfield battle as a bit of a game of chicken. Plenty of talent that can do damage if both allowed off the chains. Which coach will blink first and react? If any of our mids are being so damaging that Voss has to send a George/Kennedy/Cerra type to them, then that's a win for us, as it means they're worried and having to divert from their usual midfield plans. If we end up using one of our mids to try and quash the impact of one of Carlton's mids, then that's a win for them, as it means we're playing into their hands by sacrificing one of our few just to stop one of their many.

Excited to see what we end up doing but nervous as always.

 

[Kiama Chris]

I find it interesting looking at the breakdown of clearances.
Carlton are the best in the comp at centre clearances (ave 15 per game), we average 12 (10th in the comp).
However our stoppage clearance numbers are better (24.6) than Carlton's (22.7).

I mentioned before the Essendon game I was surprised how many centre bounces Papley attended in the Brisbane match.
He had 6 (nil clearances) whereas JPK had 2 attendances for 1 clearance.

Against Essendon Papley was at 9 centre bounces (1 clearance). JPK attended 2 for 2 clearances. (Rowbottom was at 11 for 3 clearances).

I know we want to be more dynamic at centre bounces, get a bit more speed, even keep Papley involved in the game.
And yes we can't keep relying on Kennedy. But last 2 weeks he has had 3 clearances from 4 centre bounces attendances. He can still get the job done.
I'd have him in there from the start against Carlton.

With Cripps, Hewett and Walsh plus Kennedy attending for the Blues we need both speed and strength. Mills has been phenomenal and will attend a lot. Warner has been dynamic. JPK could work on Cripps. These three should be our main attendees. Others should be occasional visitors.

 

[mattpolo8]

Only GA and some seats in about 10 level 3 bays left.

This is heading towards 40k.

 

[RubbaDuck]

Yeah I've been saying our lack of accountability in the mids is an issue all year. The only mids we have who can play accountable footy are Mills and Rowbottom (and he is too accountable.) So I think it's just not worth trying this week and just going all out attack. Let's just try and win as much ball as possible, try and win the territory battle. At least then the Blues might end up reactive.

I see the midfield battle as a bit of a game of chicken. Plenty of talent that can do damage if both allowed off the chains. Which coach will blink first and react? If any of our mids are being so damaging that Voss has to send a George/Kennedy/Cerra type to them, then that's a win for us, as it means they're worried and having to divert from their usual midfield plans. If we end up using one of our mids to try and quash the impact of one of Carlton's mids, then that's a win for them, as it means we're playing into their hands by sacrificing one of our few just to stop one of their many.

Excited to see what we end up doing but nervous as always.

It might come down to which coach has the most flexible midfield options to create a favourable matchup. In any case, our mids still need to be accountable, not tagging an opponent but getting into them at stoppages, keeping goal side of them inside defensive 50 and just working bloody hard, running in swarms and tackling like Warner's double tackle on the weekend, huge pressure when we don't have the ball, then spreading wide and running in waves when we do have it.

 

[RubbaDuck]

I hope we focus on tackling in this game. A good tackle is as good or better than winning a clearance, which is often a rushed kick. A tackle or an intercept stops our opponents momentum and swings us into attack if the tackle's rewarded. Any deficiencies Rowbottom has pale next to his tackling. Along with Heeney (no.1) and Miils (no.2), those three are in a league of their own this year, then it's Warner followed by Reid, the only non-midfielder in our top 5 tacklers - I'm counting Heeney as a mid this year. Parker, Wicks, Gulden, Campbell and Hayward complete the top 10.

Buddy and MacDonald are not big tacklers but they're still ranked 2nd and 3rd respectively for average tackles inside 50, just behind Heeney. This game I want to see our forward pressure and our tackling go right off the scale, particularly in the first quarter.

 

[caesar88]

Hes been given a different role, a more defensive role, and as such, more responsibility.
The fact that his numbers are going up is a pretty decent indication of his improvement

It's clear he's been given a role, hence his spot in the team every week. I'm just not a fan of it and don't think it does him or the midfield any favours.

 

[RubbaDuck]

I find it interesting looking at the breakdown of clearances.
Carlton are the best in the comp at centre clearances (ave 15 per game), we average 12 (10th in the comp).
However our stoppage clearance numbers are better (24.6) than Carlton's (22.7).

I mentioned before the Essendon game I was surprised how many centre bounces Papley attended in the Brisbane match.
He had 6 (nil clearances) whereas JPK had 2 attendances for 1 clearance.

Against Essendon Papley was at 9 centre bounces (1 clearance). JPK attended 2 for 2 clearances. (Rowbottom was at 11 for 3 clearances).

I know we want to be more dynamic at centre bounces, get a bit more speed, even keep Papley involved in the game.
And yes we can't keep relying on Kennedy. But last 2 weeks he has had 3 clearances from 4 centre bounces attendances. He can still get the job done.
I'd have him in there from the start against Carlton.

Campbell's really a midfielder learning the ropes as a defender. He's got pace, he tackles hard and he can place a red hot Sherrin anywhere within a 60m radius before anyone's realised it's left his boot. If it wasn't a crunch game I'd be bloody tempted to run him in the guts.

 

[Kirkswan]

I'm not seeing whatever you are seeing from Rowbottom and I know you don't like stats but his career averages are up pretty much across the board, albeit after an injury hampered 2021.

View attachment 1402603View attachment 1402605

I don't have any issue with his performances overall this year.

I reckon at least half the reason people have all these issues with players performances, is because they have preconceived ideas about that player will perform, and what he will contribute, never adjusting their ideas to the role actually played and the performance of that role.

I too think Rowey's been pretty good this year.

 

[Kirkswan]

I think his numbers going up can be explained quite easily by far greater TOG% and CBAs, but to me he is a shadow of the player he was in his first few years.

How much of that is due to Mills coming into the midfield and Rowie's roll changing due to that? I would speculate that it's made quite an impact...

 

[BloodySwan]

I find it interesting looking at the breakdown of clearances.
Carlton are the best in the comp at centre clearances (ave 15 per game), we average 12 (10th in the comp).
However our stoppage clearance numbers are better (24.6) than Carlton's (22.7).

I mentioned before the Essendon game I was surprised how many centre bounces Papley attended in the Brisbane match.
He had 6 (nil clearances) whereas JPK had 2 attendances for 1 clearance.

Against Essendon Papley was at 9 centre bounces (1 clearance). JPK attended 2 for 2 clearances. (Rowbottom was at 11 for 3 clearances).

I know we want to be more dynamic at centre bounces, get a bit more speed, even keep Papley involved in the game.
And yes we can't keep relying on Kennedy. But last 2 weeks he has had 3 clearances from 4 centre bounces attendances. He can still get the job done.
I'd have him in there from the start against Carlton.

I'd have to find it but a couple years ago when we started playing Papley in the middle he didn't actually win the clearances but the Swans won more

 

[Donza]

RJ in the centre is a huge advantage IMO.

He seems to equalise so many CC's.

I noticed it against Draper last weekend. Who is a fine player IMO.

 

[Crust]

RJ in the centre is a huge advantage IMO.

He seems to equalise so many CC's.

I noticed it against Draper last weekend. Who is a fine player IMO.

Sorry but who is RJ?

 

[Donza]

Sorry but who is RJ?

Ruck Jesus.

Tom Hickey is too common.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Ruck Jesus.

Tom Hickey is too common.

My alternate nickname for Tom is Gerry Garcia (GG also works as 'Good Get') from the Grateful Dead. I even have a song in mind "Truckin" which I sometimes sing tunelessly when I watch him trundling around the ground.

 

[caesar88]

How much of that is due to Mills coming into the midfield and Rowie's roll changing due to that? I would speculate that it's made quite an impact...

I would too and haven't said otherwise, but it doesn't change the fact that I think his performance has dropped.

 

[cookie monster]

Only GA and some seats in about 10 level 3 bays left.

This is heading towards 40k.

They're selling the bulk of Level 3 tickets to reserved now.

I'll put a large amount on attendance being 51-53k.

If you are intending to attend with general admission I would either be upgrading to a seat or getting there early.

Biggest game at Marvel for the year so far

 

[Banyo Bloods]

So it’s a school swimming carnival participation award now? Not standard.

Rather Stephens or give Roberts or whoever might be standard in reserves.

What a narrow view

Those other suggestions provide no greater expectation than Clarke. I’m not a fan of Clarke but he has shown consistent form. Stephen’s has coughed it up as much as Clarke in his appearances and is Robert’s a Rowbottom replacement ?

Like I said nobody will care if Clarke doesn’t get a call up. But he deserves a shot as much as Stephen’s does.

Participation award, gee never heard anyone use that nugget ? Original stuff there LP1

 

[Wolfgang West]

They're selling the bulk of Level 3 tickets to reserved now.

I'll put a large amount on attendance being 51-53k.

If you are intending to attend with general admission I would either be upgrading to a seat or getting there early.

Biggest game at Marvel for the year so far

Where can you sit with GA on level 3 without upgrading anyway ? If they sell remainder as reserved surely they must be the best bays ?

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

What a narrow view

Those other suggestions provide no greater expectation than Clarke. I’m not a fan of Clarke but he has shown consistent form. Stephen’s has coughed it up as much as Clarke in his appearances and is Robert’s a Rowbottom replacement ?

Like I said nobody will care if Clarke doesn’t get a call up. But he deserves a shot as much as Stephen’s does.

Participation award, gee never heard anyone use that nugget ? Original stuff there LP1

Unfortunately Clarke has not improved his kicking or decision making. As far as I can see his only role would be as a lockdown tagger who is instructed to not chase possessions.

In the current team we have Bell and Wicks in defensive roles and jpk and Lloyd who struggle with disposal - adding another does not inspire.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

What a narrow view

Those other suggestions provide no greater expectation than Clarke. I’m not a fan of Clarke but he has shown consistent form. Stephen’s has coughed it up as much as Clarke in his appearances and is Robert’s a Rowbottom replacement ?

Like I said nobody will care if Clarke doesn’t get a call up. But he deserves a shot as much as Stephen’s does.

Participation award, gee never heard anyone use that nugget ? Original stuff there LP1

Florent can go into the middle if Roberts came in. No difference at all. Sorry to be blunt but Clarke no thanks he’s a VFL player that’s it. Should be captain of our reserves side that’s it. He can’t kick unfortunately and that’s the be all and end all nowadays.

 

[Banyo Bloods]

Unfortunately Clarke has not improved his kicking or decision making. As far as I can see his only role would be as a lockdown tagger who is instructed to not chase possessions.

In the current team we have Bell and Wicks in defensive roles and jpk and Lloyd who struggle with disposal - adding another does not inspire.

Has Stephen’s improved his disposal or contest shirking ?

Is Bell, Wicks or LLoyd tagging in the midfield ?

Did you read my post about nobody would care if Clarke doesn’t get a call up?

You have a history of personally disliking players so it’s hard to really take anything you say with any kind of merit anyway.

My point stands that IF Clarke gets a call up it will have been well earned for consistent performance in the twos. If he doesn’t I’m not losing sleep over it.

 

[Banyo Bloods]

Florent can go into the middle if Roberts came in. No difference at all. Sorry to be blunt but Clarke no thanks he’s a VFL player that’s it. Should be captain of our reserves side that’s it. He can’t kick unfortunately and that’s the be all and end all nowadays.

Much better response. Though not sure you should be championing Florent in the be all and end all of kicking. He can find an opposition players chest as easily as a number of Swans players.