Preview Round 13: Essendon vs Carlton, MCG, Friday 10/06/2022 @ 7:50 pm

Who wins?

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eth-dog

eth-dog

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Jan 11, 2007
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Essendon
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Last Week

Essendon: After an average first half, Essendon came back well against Port Adelaide but fell short of the line, going down by 15 points in wet conditions. Darcy Parish was his usual prolific self with 39 disposals, and half back Nick Hind continued his excellent month of football with 26 disposals coming off half back, whilst the forwards really struggled to impact the game inside 50.

Carlton: Losing Jacob Weitering to a shoulder injury early in the clash against arch rivals Collingwood was a big blow to Carlton, which ultimately lead them to go down by 4 points. Charlie Curnow was the standout player for the Blues with 4 goals playing a lone hand up front for Carlton, whilst classy midfielder Sam Walsh had 35 disposals and a goal for the Blues.


Head to Head (last 5)

Essendon 2-3 Carlton


Form Guide

Essendon: 1W 4L
Carlton 4W 1L


Possible sides

Essendon vs Carlton

FB: Lachie Plowman - Lewis Young - Adam Saad
FF: Jake Stringer - Peter Wright - Tex Wanganeen
HB: Liam Stocker - Brodie Kemp - Sam Docherty
HF: Matthew Guelfi - Harrison Jones - Archie Perkins
MF: Matthew Cottrell - Patrick Cripps - Lochie O'Brien
MF: Sam Durham - Dylan Shiel - Nic Martin
HF: Jack Martin - Charlie Curnow - Zac Fisher
HB: Mason Redman - Jayden Laverde - Jordan Ridley
FF: Corey Durdin - Jack Silvagni - Matt Owies
FB: Jake Kelly - Zachary Reid - Nick Hind
OB: Tom De Koning - Adam Cerra - Sam Walsh
OB: Sam Draper - Darcy Parish - Zachary Merrett
IC: George Hewett - Nic Newman - Jack Newnes - Matthew Kennedy
IC: Ben Hobbs - Andrew McGrath - Andrew Phillips - Jye Caldwell
MS: Paddy Dow
MS: Dyson Heppell

Essendon in: Guelfi, Redman, Stringer; out: Alec Waterman, Devon Smith (omit), Brayden Ham (unused sub)
Carlton in: Kemp, Kennedy, Martin; out: Jacob Weitering (shoulder), Jesse Motlop (omit), Jack Carroll (used sub)


Carlton defence vs Essendon forward line

So far Essendon have kicked a goal 20.37% of the time it enters their forward 50, 16th in the AFL. Carlton concede a goal 23.67% of the time it enters their defensive 50, currently 11th in the AFL. Essendon have been reliant on Peter Wright so far this season and will go up against Lewis Young, the former Dog having a solid year for the Blues since coming into the side, although the tall support cast for the Bules consist of Lachie Plowman and Brodie Kemp, the former statistically one of the weakest one on one defenders in the league whilst Kemp is very inexperienced in defence and may struggle to contain Harrison Jones. Adam Saad is likely to cop a lot of jeers from the Essendon faithful as he plays on son of a gun Tex Wanganeen.


Midfield/rucks battle

As far as contested possession and clearance difference in the league goes, right now Essendon are languishing at 13th and 14th for those statistics respectfully whilst Carlton are 8th and 6th for them respectfully. Essendon might struggle to contain the bigger bodies around Carlton's midfield with a lack of size through theirs, Darcy Parish holds the key but he may cop a lot of attention from George Hewett, who is an outside chance of making the 40 man squad of the All Australian side, which will mean that Zach Merrett and Dylan Shiel will have to step up to the plate for the Dons, whilst Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh are likely to go to work for the Blues on the inside. On the outside, Essendon probably hold a distinct advantage with Sam Durham and Nic Martin in comparison to Matt Cottrell and Lochie O'Brien, probably Carlton's biggest weakness at this stage. Rucks wise, Essendon's combination of Sam Draper and Andrew Phillips will be important at the stoppage whilst Tom De Koning will be looking to expose them around the ground a bit more.


Carlton forward line vs Essendon defence

Carlton are kicking a goal 23.9% of the time it enters their forward 50, currently 6th in the AFL. Essendon's defence has been very leaky, conceding a goal 25.83% of the time it enters defensive 50, which is 17th in the AFL currently. This is the area where Essendon will struggle to contain Carlton, even without Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow has stepped up this season to lead the Coleman Medal halfway through the year, with Jayden Laverde likely to go head to head with the Carlton key forward, whilst young tall Zach Reid likely takes much improved Jack Silvagni, with Essendon hoping that the rest of their mediums and smalls such as Jordan Ridley and the returning Mason Redman can cover the likes of Mitch Owies and Corey Durdin to intercept and rebound.


X-Factor Player

Archie Perkins has really stepped up in recent weeks and the addition of Jake Stringer probably relieves a lot of pressure on the half forward/midfielder, hopefully he can break this game open for the Dons


Key stat

Essendon: Goals/inside 50. Carlton's defence is undersized so Essendon could capitalise on it this week. Massive chance.

Carlton: Clearances. Win this and expose Essendon one on one.


Tip

**** Carlton. Bombers by 17
 
Last edited:
Finally we will get some decent players back so could see a very different lineup to the team that played Port. Early thoughts I think we might see-

OUT: Waterman, Kelly, Smith, Wanga
IN: Stringer, Redman, Snelling, Langford

Team;-

Ridley Reid Hind
Heppell Lav McGrath
Martin Parish Durham
Perkins Jones Langford
Stringer 2MP Hobbs

Phillips Shiel Merrett

Bench: Redman Caldwell Snelling Draper
SUB: Guelfi


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Last edited:

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Not sure Langford or Snelling will be right to go will they? Stringer should be.
 
It will be interesting to see how we preform after the bye. I think we will be a lot more competitive and we can salvage something of the season by beating an old enemy.

Usually they have the wood on us even when they're down and we're not.
It would be bloody good to turn the table's on them!

Too early to call, but Essendon by 7pts
 
Vindicater said:
Out: Heppell, Phillips, Waterman and Smith

In: Redman, Langford, Snelling and Stringer

Draper to play permanently in defensive coverage and Wright/Stringer to take forward fidty ruck work.
Click to expand...

wishful thinking regarding Heppell. he'll play for another 5 years because he's a top bloke. This club lacks the balls to make the hard calls.
 

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In: Guelfi, Stringer, Redman, Stewart
Out: Wanganeen, Waterman, Smith, Kelly

Assuming Snelling and Langford are not deemed fit.

Wouldn't mind Wanganeen getting another game and having Guelfi as the sub perhaps.
 
Swear filter averted.
1654247735882.png
 
OUT: Kelly, Waterman, Smith, Wanga
IN: Stewart, Stringer, Redman, Menzie

Team;-

Stewart Reid Hind
Ridley Lav McGrath
Heppell Shiel Martin
Perkins Jones Durham
Stringer 2MP Menzie

Phillips Parish Merrett

Bench: Caldwell Hobbs Redman Draper
SUB: Cutler
 
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