Review Round 18, 2023 - Melbourne vs. Brisbane Lions

[Nathan Barley]

As of round 16 he was the 13th best set shot in the league this season. He's had a couple of poor weeks kicking though, so he's probably dropped a bit.

He's evidently gone away and worked on his set shot kicking, which you can tell by his run up which is now straight.

That isn't set shots but your point still stands

 

[Monkey Daniel]

it really was HOODOO gurus, Like Wow, Wipeout

 

[whizkizz]

Tbh Oscar is a clumsy player with not much skill who most of the time tries his guts out.

If he could have that moment again obviously he would react differently but he just thought it would be a ball up and was as astounded as everyone else when Viney plucked it out of his grasp and took off.

Yes it looked terrible , crucial stage of the game, I don't think he needs to be told no one wants to see that happen again.

I'm sure he'd love to have this play again, and I imagine he was pretty gassed by that stage of the game. One out against Gawn all night would have to be the toughest assignment as a ruck.

I want to give a bit of love to Big O. He doesn't accumulate fantasy points like a lot of the other big name rucks, but he's a good, honest, hard worker, and as martinson said, he's tries his absolute guts out.

Overall Oscar's impact probably still gets under sold and underappreciated externally.

He's actually won the most clearances of any ruckmen this year, and in fact, he's 13th of all players in the league (ahead of the likes of Merrett, Butters, Macrae and even Dunkley).

Our game plan is based on taking territory and having the game played in our front half, of which Oscar is critical.

How he compares to his counterparts (post Rd 18):

Total Clearances:
93 - McInerney
87 - Marshall
77 - Blicavs
71 - Williams (WCE)
67 - Witts
61 - Darcy (FRE)
56 - Gawn
56 - O'Brien
55 - Goldstein
54 - English
50 - Grundy
etc.

 

[Elixuh]

But they did.

I hope the club deals with facts because I don’t care whether something is expected or not; if it happened it happened - trying to make anyone feel better that it wouldn’t happen again is ridiculous. It did.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Watching the replay finally. Amazing how many goals they kicked which started from the easiest of clearances.

Getting Dunkley back and a decent contest from our ruck will make a big difference

 

[martinson]

Watching the replay finally. Amazing how many goals they kicked which started from the easiest of clearances.

Getting Dunkley back and a decent contest from our ruck will make a big difference

Oscar didn't seem to want to make body contact with Gawn a lot of the time.

I'm wondering whether that was a strategy that just didn't work on the night.

The first 10 minutes or so was horrendous . In hindsight we lost the game there.

 

[dlanod]

Oscar didn't seem to want to make body contact with Gawn a lot of the time.

I'm wondering whether that was a strategy that just didn't work on the night.

The first 10 minutes or so was horrendous . In hindsight we lost the game there.

It looked like he was overthinking every ruck contest. Instead of just lining up Gawn and banging into him, Oscar was watching Gawn, reacting to him, attempting to contest the tap, but because of that reactiveness was ineffective. This was pretty consistent all night and not normally how Oscar plays, so it really seemed like either a strategy or some instruction that backfired.

You see bad rucks constantly just manhandle other rucks, basically tackling them in the contest (even seen plenty do it to Oscar). I hate that strategy, but when there's a disparity up against Gawn or Darcy (when fit), etc, I think that's a better solution that trying to read the other ruckman.

 

[M Malice]

It looked like he was overthinking every ruck contest. Instead of just lining up Gawn and banging into him, Oscar was watching Gawn, reacting to him, attempting to contest the tap, but because of that reactiveness was ineffective. This was pretty consistent all night and not normally how Oscar plays, so it really seemed like either a strategy or some instruction that backfired.

You see bad rucks constantly just manhandle other rucks, basically tackling them in the contest (even seen plenty do it to Oscar). I hate that strategy, but when there's a disparity up against Gawn or Darcy (when fit), etc, I think that's a better solution that trying to read the other ruckman.

The Big O does that all the time along with nearly always playing from behind around the ground ... he is built like a brick outhouse so I don't know why he just doesn't use it and impose himself physically.

 

[dlanod]

The Big O does that all the time along with nearly always playing from behind around the ground ... he is built like a brick outhouse so I don't know why he just doesn't use it and impose himself physically.

I thought I'd only seen him do it in particular matchups - without looking back, my main memories of his ruck contests really are him trailing to the ball at throwins and trying to use his length to reach over the top (which is a separate and longstanding issue) but not specifically watching the opponent.

 

[Nathan Barley]

It looked like he was overthinking every ruck contest. Instead of just lining up Gawn and banging into him, Oscar was watching Gawn, reacting to him, attempting to contest the tap, but because of that reactiveness was ineffective. This was pretty consistent all night and not normally how Oscar plays, so it really seemed like either a strategy or some instruction that backfired.

You see bad rucks constantly just manhandle other rucks, basically tackling them in the contest (even seen plenty do it to Oscar). I hate that strategy, but when there's a disparity up against Gawn or Darcy (when fit), etc, I think that's a better solution that trying to read the other ruckman.

Rowan Marshall did the same to O after he started rhe St kilda game on fire. Just took the ground at the ball drop and didn't let him get near it. Would've made a big difference in that last quarter

 

[martinson]

The Big O does that all the time along with nearly always playing from behind around the ground ... he is built like a brick outhouse so I don't know why he just doesn't use it and impose himself physically.

Stef used to harp on about telling Oscar to get in front at boundary throw ins because the majority of the time they come in short. But he wouldn't do it. Still doesn't do it.

Not sure what the strategy there is either but it doesn't seem to work overly well.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Stef used to harp on about telling Oscar to get in front at boundary throw ins because the majority of the time they come in short. But he wouldn't do it. Still doesn't do it.

Not sure what the strategy there is either but it doesn't seem to work overly well.

I think it's to avoid a Tom Hawkins style push under the ball at ball ins

 

[briztoon]

It looked like he was overthinking every ruck contest. Instead of just lining up Gawn and banging into him, Oscar was watching Gawn, reacting to him, attempting to contest the tap, but because of that reactiveness was ineffective. This was pretty consistent all night and not normally how Oscar plays, so it really seemed like either a strategy or some instruction that backfired.

You see bad rucks constantly just manhandle other rucks, basically tackling them in the contest (even seen plenty do it to Oscar). I hate that strategy, but when there's a disparity up against Gawn or Darcy (when fit), etc, I think that's a better solution that trying to read the other ruckman.

That's how Oscar rucks 90% of the time, unless he's against a player he can completely dominate.

 

[Viceregal]

IF ..​

the MCG record got dramatically worse in round 18 with a loss to Melbourne and now sits at three wins from the past 21 at the venue, and just one from the past 15 ...

THEN ...​

I reckon that loss actually proved this team could effectively play a big-time game at footy's home. Twenty-three points up with seven minutes remaining. It wasn't the MCG which brought the Lions undone. Poor late-match management, and maybe a worrying hint of an on-field choke, did.

 

[Nathan Barley]

It still for me goes back to what Whiting and other have said in the last 15 minutes. We couldn't win any contests, at all.

That's where the choking aspect comes in. Similar at the start of the match.

All we probably had to do was stop 1 Max Gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age

33

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.7

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

35.3

5star

D

18.5

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

3.5

4star

HO

29.2

5star

D

8.4

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

15.6

5star

or Jake Melksham

18

Jake Melksham

Age

33

Ht

186cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.2

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.2

3star

G

0.8

4star

D

9.2

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

3.3

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.2

2star

G

0.8

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.2

3star

G

0.8

4star

mark, or force a couple of repeated stoppages and we would've won

 

[mpal6]

I think we can close down our review now and move on.

'Coach is a little bit guilty': Lions work on nailbiters after Dee pain

Chris Fagan has put his hand up after Brisbane's collapse against Melbourne at the MCG in round 18

www.afl.com.au

However, he said there was no escaping what went wrong in the dying minutes.

"We looked at the last 15 minutes and what we could do better in that scenario," he said.

"Coach is a little bit guilty there. We haven't had a close finish for a long time, so it hasn't been on our agenda.

"We should have probably been practising that situation a little bit more at training. That's certainly prompted us to do that. We've had a good chat about those situations and what we do differently.

"We got so much out of that game last week, except for the four points. We learnt a lot about ourselves and came away from that game feeling really confident about our brand on the MCG."

 

[M Malice]

I think we can close down our review now and move on.

'Coach is a little bit guilty': Lions work on nailbiters after Dee pain

Chris Fagan has put his hand up after Brisbane's collapse against Melbourne at the MCG in round 18

www.afl.com.au

However, he said there was no escaping what went wrong in the dying minutes.

"We looked at the last 15 minutes and what we could do better in that scenario," he said.

"Coach is a little bit guilty there. We haven't had a close finish for a long time, so it hasn't been on our agenda.

"We should have probably been practising that situation a little bit more at training. That's certainly prompted us to do that. We've had a good chat about those situations and what we do differently.

"We got so much out of that game last week, except for the four points. We learnt a lot about ourselves and came away from that game feeling really confident about our brand on the MCG."

I am astonished that we haven't been working on close game strategies at training... as it is highly likely to be needed come the big finals in September.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Yeah that doesn't make any sense to me

What's to practice?

Surely it's just a matter of taking less risks. Still need to win contests

 

[dlanod]

I am astonished that we haven't been working on close game strategies at training... as it is highly likely to be needed come the big finals in September.

Fagan was just planning on keeping up the 81 point wins.

 

[Tom14]

I'm glad to hear we haven't been working on close game scenarios - we won't make the mistake that collingwood where they spent all last year training to win close regular season games.

Reckon this is a bait and switch from Fages and we've been training to win close FINALS, unlike the pies last year.

 

[p4p1]

Fagan was just planning on keeping up the 81 point wins.

I would be happy with these.

 

[Grasshopper17]

It didn't seem to dawn on anyone involved that you save games by getting it in to your forward half.

That's what takes the steam out of the opposition . So to continue kicking it to their best player who was having a picnic was never going to do that,

Great comment. I want to share this chart of the game from Friday night. We've all heard a fair bit about "expected score" by now... This guy, Richard Little, takes the concept a bit further. He looks at where you start your chains of possession (ie from a clearance, turnover or kick in) and looks at the expected score from each of those chains.

Obviously you don't score from the majority of your chains, but there are also a lot more data points throughout the game, so it's a really good representation of the flow of dominance in general play.

This is his analysis from Friday's game:



What I'd like to draw attention to is the period from midway through the third quarter. The blue line indicates the game went goal-for-goal through that time, but in general play our ball movement became much more conservative, allowing Melbourne to start their chains from better positions.

This is why I believe it is a (very) flawed analysis to review only the last 7 minutes of game time in isolation (whether that analysis is by the club, the media or us). That period was more tip of the iceberg than the iceberg itself. The rest of the iceberg was in the last 45 minutes of game time, when Melbourne first regained a foothold by being able to score, then early in the last quarter by having chances but butchering them.

So I don't believe we went defensive with 10 minutes to go. I believe we went defensive with 10 minutes to go IN THE THIRD. I guess the question we all are trying (and struggling) to understand is WHY?

The 3 possibilities I can think of are complacency, fitness, or coaches/players making decisions in-game about the playing style to be implemented. To be honest, the water's probably a bit muddier than that, because the latter is probably determined at least in part by the first 2.

I tend to reside a bit in the fitness camp, and if I'm right, it basically means the rest of our season is a write-off because we won't be able to address it now until preseason. So I hope I'm wrong!

The thing about fitness issues tho is that it won't affect everyone the same. For example at one end of the spectrum you might have Sharp, McCluggage and Berry burning up the 2k time trial track. But then you also have Coleman cramping up regularly at the end of games, and Lyons spending only 69% of game time on field, despite being a key part of our midfield rotation.

This then has the knock on effect of leaving too much to too few, and I believe that is when you get situations like

• a lack of options coming out of defence
• Oscar being dominated by Gawn in the final 10 minutes
• Viney being able to push off McCluggage too easily for his goal late in the game, and
• even Wilmot spoiling out of bounds when he could have knocked through a behind.

The other thing is that when you voluntarily give up your preparedness to attack, you stop forcing your opposition to defend you, and you are also forced to defend more yourself. Defending is more tiresome, because your opponent will naturally attack through your weakest link(s), and towards their strongest link(s). Watch any game of NFL... So much emphasis is based on "keeping the defense out on the field" for that very reason.

In this sense, attack really is the best form of defence, and one we would have done well to persist with for much longer than we did last Friday night.

Obviously the kick was poor but so was Ashcrofts reading of the kick. If he back tracked a step or two (he had time) while the ball was in flight, he takes an easy mark or at worst maintains possession. I thought that was also a sign of fatigue, but for a first year player, playing full time mid mins, I don't think he can be critiqued for being tired late in a game either.

I'm pretty sure this happened in the 2nd quarter, not the last.

 

[blueiris]

disappointing ending for a Lions prospective but clearly the game of the year considering I was at the Soccer I missed a beauty

 

[Grimlions]

The mentally weakest Brisbane Lions side I've ever supported. Been a member since Fitzroy days.

No idea how to put a team away.

Don't even turn up to September you pathetic pack of pretenders.

I stand by this.

 

[M Malice]

I stand by this.

LOL! "pathetic pack of pretenders" You are kidding. We knocked out the reigning premiers last year in finals. Grand Finals are bloody hard to win.