Autopsy Round 21, 2023: St.Kilda v Carlton

[#gosaintas]

That was a great 1st half performance but the second half was always a concern given the 9 day v 6 day break. We should have done better than we did of course but I was always concerned that we'd stop to a crawl. Never thought we'd stop that much that our senior mids would get 1 possie combined in the last qtr.
So an ordinary team is going to steal a flag this year and again it won't be us. That's just f'ed.

 

[gringo2011]

The last 2 weeks they've been sitting off when the opposition are coming out of D50, but we lost all our frontal pressure in the second half. I think a bit of it was field position and the endeavour wasn't there.

An interesting correlation I found was that pretty well all of the best small forwards are leading the stats in their position for both goals and tackles inside 50. If you want to be an effective small forward, you've gotta do the dirty work. Gresh has never done that, nor will he ever. Peris would be a lot better value in the side.

A fair bit of it was that Carlton went old school, manning up one on one all over the field and their players were better than our players. We couldn't find space to get our run going and every kick or handball went to a covered player. We tried to go conservative to not lose the ball and lost all run and dare that had got us the lead in the first half and won us the game last week. Carlton took their long range shots and pushed the tempo up we slowed down and tried to use our non existent elite skills to hold possession.

 

[crasha301]

A fair bit of it was that Carlton went old school, manning up one on one all over the field and their players were better than our players. We couldn't find space to get our run going and every kick or handball went to a covered player. We tried to go conservative to not lose the ball and lost all run and dare that had got us the lead in the first half and won us the game last week. Carlton took their long range shots and pushed the tempo up we slowed down and tried to use our non existent elite skills to hold possession.

Yep the blue print to beat us is just to go man on man. We don't have the talent to play that style and we lose a lot of one on ones.

Owens would probably be our best one on one player.

Sent from my CPH2145 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[gringo2011]

We were playing three tall forwards and Mason was getting the ball near the wing and trying to move the ball quickly - one of them should have been in the general vicinity.

Its on them (and the coaching staff) that they weren't not Mason for kicking to where they should have been.

Probably a little bit on Mason as well. He's got elite elements of his game, his marking is fantastic and his ability to kick running goals are the best in the side but he has a few decision making issues that have followed him throughout his career. He's still not the reason we lost yesterday and least of our issues types.
We carried way to many passengers. Hunter Clark couldn't hold up their good mids despite trying to. Guys like Hewett can sit on Crouch or Steele and our supply dries up because our 3rd to 5th mids are below average AFL players or kids.

Yesterday Steele, Byrnes, Clark, Sharman, Windhager all had below average games. Snags and Butler did a bit of good and some absolute shit that cost us as did King. Nas and Hill both had below average games as well but not as bad as others. To me Crouch, Wilkie and Mason Wood were probably our best and Marshall had a game of two halves. One great, one soundly smashed. The rest of them were all playing below their usual level.

 

[Ads734]

Quoting Hill as "one of the worst players (you've) ever seen" is a bit howyagoin...

Had a bit of a stinker today. Did run well as he always does, but seemed non-committed, asking for the cheapies a lot, and had some clangers. That I can agree with.

Genuine question to yourself and others on here, who would you take if anyone in the league was available to come in and play Hill's role? Hill certainly has his drawbacks, but he is a fantastic endurance athlete. Who's the top?

Acres…

 

[Ads734]

Another reason we’ve got to stop obsessing over lists and midfields and thinking it will take years of “elite” draft picks is because it takes the focus off the main area we have to improve: development.

Look at Hawthorn. Their best mid fielder is Newcombe. A kid the picked up in the MIDSEASON ROOKIE DRAFT!

How has he become the beast of a player he has? Sam Mitchell and the Hawks have developed him perfectly,

The same with their other “midfielders”.

Watching the way they sliced and diced Collingwood with their kicking yesterday shows exactly where we are lacking as a team.

They have spent time developing their whole list to be able to kick and execute under pressure. Then they build a system around it.

This is how we improve.

And if we do, we can get results quickly instead of the never ending “kick the can down the road” lamenting of not having the players or draft picks.

It’s an equalized comp. So at the bare minimum, r teach our players how to quick. The rest is on the coaches to develop a system and gameplan that stacks up.

We are lacking in that area but it can change quickly.

No more excuses and for god’s sake, no more justifying a massive rebuild when it’s not required
.
Better development and coaching is required.

Couldn’t agree more.
Rebuilding isn’t the answer. It’s about developing a winning culture. Teams like Sydney, Geelong don’t rebuild they maintain quality recruiting and development. Only when Melbourne/Carlton fixed their R/D did they become good.

Winning accelerated development of young player especially big games like yesterday.

 

[gringo2011]

Do you actually think what Hill brings does not warrant him being in our best 22?
That's a wild take in my opinion. One we will most likely continue to disagree on considering the strength of the responses you've given regarding him haha. Happy to accept downfalls of the player, but the positives need to be acknowledged too.

As for the replacement - well that was the question. I'd keep him personally. I think his endless running to create an outlet as he burns off his opponent is very valuable, and his delivery CAN be fantastic. There's also the added layer of what impact he has on other players, mentoring roles for younger players (given his experience), being a great indigenous leader at our club. I think all of those things have great weight and merit that don't have a stat.

Hill is still one of our few players that actually has some run. If we took him out we'd look like a snail on a glacier. He's a solid B grade player that we paid elite money and trade cost for. That would be totally on us not him. He's the type of player that if he was paid $500k a year would be a good middle tier player like Mason Wood.

 

[gringo2011]

Couldn’t agree more.
Rebuilding isn’t the answer. It’s about developing a winning culture. Teams like Sydney, Geelong don’t rebuild they maintain quality recruiting and development. Only when Melbourne/Carlton fixed their R/D did they become good.

Winning accelerated development of young player especially big games like yesterday.

Sydney get FS and academy kids to top up constantly as well as elite recruiters. It helps if you never have to bottom out because of concessions.

Agree though. Culling hard and starting again is not going to do much for us. We need to start to make every post a winner, not tear up everything in frustration every time it takes a bit longer than we'd hoped.

 

[George]

I got s**t canned for suggesting that they were emotional appointments over best practice at the time. They are what they are now but Ratts had the same issues so perhaps at some point it's the players not the game plan.

Yep and how can anyone argue otherwise. Hayes Harvey Lyon SOS Goddard Misson nup no correlation that these guys were here last time we were good, they were all just somehow the best available candidates for the roles. Does take some mental gymnastics to see it that way.

Maybe both coaches are past it. Telling Sharman to sit on Sicily's head to take him out of the game doesn't seem like a genius idea, it's a pretty simple and effective one, but it took us 20 weeks to implement it.

The amount of times we have kicked a handful of goals in large periods of games this year is shocking. 2 goals to halftime, 3 goals to halftime. The excuse was that we didn't have an extra tall for structure, so we bring King in with probably our healthiest 22 all year, and kick a goal in a half of footy.

We may have got smashed more often under Ratts but if we can't score under Lyon what difference does it make, we are still losing games.

I've just lost any patience with this footy club. I'm sick of being fed bullshit.

 

[Ads734]

Sydney get FS and academy kids to top up constantly as well as elite recruiters. It helps if you never have to bottom out because of concessions.

Agree though. Culling hard and starting again is not going to do much for us. We need to start to make every post a winner, not tear up everything in frustration every time it takes a bit longer than we'd hoped.

Agree re the academy but even before that it was development and culture not rebuilding. Obviously you need some level of players coming through but Carlton had 3 first picks in a row and it did SFW for them. Melbourne simmilar. When Roos came in he changed the culture.

 

[The Punter]

Acres misses that one in the last quarter if he's wearing a St Kilda jumper

The encapsulation of 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022 and this year in one game

Wake me up when someone actually fixes it

Signed

A supporter who turns up every week, unlike those on the payroll

 

[gringo2011]

Kennedy is so far from an A grader it isn't funny. You serious?

I reckon last year he was. He looked like a player around Steele/Crouch level. High B looks about right for last year. He's injured this year but he was very handy when they were flying. I reckon Hewett and Kennedy would be a handful for Crouch and Steele because there isn't much difference in quality.

Our third to fifth mids are Hunter Clark who's not even fit enough to play full time mid at 25, Seb Ross who is a GOP and looks cooked, Gresham who we've moved out of the midfield because he's become so poor and likely gone and Jones who has played a few games in the last few years. Bytel the only reserves mid.

If age has caught up with Ross and Jones we will have a 30 year old Crouch, Steele and hopefully Owens/ Windhager steps up. We will lose more games than we win with that set up. Probably the worst midfield ever assembled. We had better hope that Flanders or others want in.

 

[gringo2011]

Acres misses that one in the last quarter if he's wearing a St Kilda jumper

The encapsulation of 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022 and this year in one game

Wake me up when someone actually fixes it

Signed

A supporter who turns up every week, unlike those on the payroll

Acres would have been at Sandy because we'd lost patience when his Ruck craft hadn't improved.

 

[g_TRAIN]

Honestly, I got the feeling we just were not good enough. I felt the players gave it everything from an effort perspective.

I thought when our midfield was breaking even our system looked good but that was only for about 1.5 quarters.

Steel's form is an issue still. I'm starting to think he might need to work on a few tweaks in the offseason to get his game back and we might need to think about how we use him as well. I don't think he's as suited to the running game plan as a lot of others.

Wood was great.

Need to focus on building up our midfield.

 

[jwikked]

Its farcical that people are having any sort of go at Mason Wood about his efforts yesterday.

Lots of others (including the coaching staff) that should be in the gun way way way ahead of Mason.

No one is complaining about his efforts, just his kicking let him down constantly. 66% disposal efficiency.

If he didn’t turn the ball over so much he’d have gotten 3 brownlow votes

 

[gringo2011]

Yep and how can anyone argue otherwise. Hayes Harvey Lyon SOS Goddard Misson nup no correlation that these guys were here last time we were good, they were all just somehow the best available candidates for the roles. Does take some mental gymnastics to see it that way.

Maybe both coaches are past it. Telling Sharman to sit on Sicily's head to take him out of the game doesn't seem like a genius idea, it's a pretty simple and effective one, but it took us 20 weeks to implement it.

The amount of times we have kicked a handful of goals in large periods of games this year is shocking. 2 goals to halftime, 3 goals to halftime. The excuse was that we didn't have an extra tall for structure, so we bring King in with probably our healthiest 22 all year, and kick a goal in a half of footy.

We may have got smashed more often under Ratts but if we can't score under Lyon what difference does it make, we are still losing games.

I've just lost any patience with this footy club. I'm sick of being fed bullshit.

I guess you have to give him a chance with a full strength list but the frustration is that there is no miracle happening for us any time soon. We are sitting about mid table and don't have heaps to suggest that any kind of jump looks likely.

Injury has at least forced us to fast track kids so there's that I guess. Ratts was shit but Lyon isn't a standout difference maker.

 

[bergholt]

Clearances by week

R21 v Carl: -24 - LOSS
R18 v GC: -15 - LOSS
R3 v Ess: -14 - WIN
R10 v GWS: -12 - WIN
R4 v GC: -10 - WIN
R13 v Syd: -10 - WIN
R14 v Rich: -9 - LOSS
R15 v Bris: -8 - LOSS

R9 v Adel: -5 - LOSS
R17 v Mel: +0 - LOSS
R6 v Carl: +1 - WIN
R11 v Haw: +2 - LOSS
R2 v WB: +3 - WIN
R7 v Port: +5 - LOSS

R5 v Coll: +6 - LOSS
R8 v North: +6 - WIN
R16 v WC: +6 - WIN
R20 v Haw: +8 - WIN
R1 v Freo: +9 - WIN
R19 v North: +9 - WIN

Not sure what the conclusion from this is but probably don't want to go -24 in clearances too often.

 

[George]

I guess you have to give him a chance with a full strength list but the frustration is that there is no miracle happening for us any time soon. We are sitting about mid table and don't have heaps to suggest that any kind of jump looks likely.

Injury has at least forced us to fast track kids so there's that I guess. Ratts was s**t but Lyon isn't a standout difference maker.

Yep I don't expect a miracle either. Said it all year that a finals appearance would do me. It's going to be invaluable for the kids.

Consistently missing out on finals becomes part of the culture. Look at the Suns. Or even us in 2003 when we started to make that next step. Finals for guys like Owens Pou Windhager Caniniti etc is going to give them heaps going into next year.

That's not to mention we have a list capable of it too.

 

[Saintbloke]

Clearances by week

R21 v Carl: -24 - LOSS
R18 v GC: -15 - LOSS
R3 v Ess: -14 - WIN
R10 v GWS: -12 - WIN
R4 v GC: -10 - WIN
R13 v Syd: -10 - WIN
R14 v Rich: -9 - LOSS
R15 v Bris: -8 - LOSS

R9 v Adel: -5 - LOSS
R17 v Mel: +0 - LOSS
R6 v Carl: +1 - WIN
R11 v Haw: +2 - LOSS
R2 v WB: +3 - WIN
R7 v Port: +5 - LOSS

R5 v Coll: +6 - LOSS
R8 v North: +6 - WIN
R16 v WC: +6 - WIN
R20 v Haw: +8 - WIN
R1 v Freo: +9 - WIN
R19 v North: +9 - WIN

Not sure what the conclusion from this is but probably don't want to go -24 in clearances too often.

Sounds as much as coaching problem as a player problem.

 

[gringo2011]

Another reason we’ve got to stop obsessing over lists and midfields and thinking it will take years of “elite” draft picks is because it takes the focus off the main area we have to improve: development.

Look at Hawthorn. Their best mid fielder is Newcombe. A kid the picked up in the MIDSEASON ROOKIE DRAFT!

How has he become the beast of a player he has? Sam Mitchell and the Hawks have developed him perfectly,

The same with their other “midfielders”.

Watching the way they sliced and diced Collingwood with their kicking yesterday shows exactly where we are lacking as a team.

They have spent time developing their whole list to be able to kick and execute under pressure. Then they build a system around it.

This is how we improve.

And if we do, we can get results quickly instead of the never ending “kick the can down the road” lamenting of not having the players or draft picks.

It’s an equalized comp. So at the bare minimum, r teach our players how to quick. The rest is on the coaches to develop a system and gameplan that stacks up.

We are lacking in that area but it can change quickly.

No more excuses and for god’s sake, no more justifying a massive rebuild when it’s not required
.
Better development and coaching is required.

There was a lot of controversy around Newcombe. There was suggestions of a bit of draft tampering to get him, he already looked like a star quality player in the VFL system. Others had spotted him and they made a set of financial terms that scared off North Melbourne. The AFL had to change the system to stop it happening again.

Compare him to Byrne or even Hunter Clark. Nothing suggests that either would be as good as Newcombe just because of the coaching. Good drafting makes good coaches in our system.

Sinclair was a rookie but Clark was a first round pick. Where they were taken doesn't make them good. Identifying talent is a huge part of AFL list management. We blew 20 years worth of drafts and are paying for it still. Failure to make changes to our terrible system cost us along with terrible development, stupid trades in and out. The football department was run like an amateur club and we kept mates in jobs over trying to find better options.

 

[The Punter]

Yep and how can anyone argue otherwise. Hayes Harvey Lyon SOS Goddard Misson nup no correlation that these guys were here last time we were good, they were all just somehow the best available candidates for the roles. Does take some mental gymnastics to see it that way.

The club consistently makes decisions that:

• revere people who didn't win premierships
• are committed to winning as long as certain people don't get pissed off

Their only job is to win a flag. I don't care about who doesn't like how we get there. Carlton, Essendon, Collingwood and Hawthorn have about 65 flags between them - and one common attitude: we don't care who likes the method we used to succeed.

 

[gringo2011]

Yep I don't expect a miracle either. Said it all year that a finals appearance would do me. It's going to be invaluable for the kids.

Consistently missing out on finals becomes part of the culture. Look at the Suns. Or even us in 2003 when we started to make that next step. Finals for guys like Owens Pou Windhager Caniniti etc is going to give them heaps going into next year.

That's not to mention we have a list capable of it too.

Just have a compare of our list to Collingwood's we look more like the Hawks than them when you hold the lists up. They have heaps of guys who have played the bulk of their careers together. We are a patchwork of rejects, over paid GOPs and kids. It looks more bottom 4 than top 4.

 

[The Punter]

Just have a compare of our list to Collingwood's we look more like the Hawks than them when you hold the lists up. They have heaps of guys who have played the bulk of their careers together. We are a patchwork of rejects, over paid GOPs and kids. It looks more bottom 4 than top 4.

Hawks are coached to know the worst thing they can do is to slow down.

We didn't slow down yesterday - we stopped.

 

[True Believer]

I had probably my best seat for a game this year yesterday, right on the centre-line at the front of level 3. I had a front row seat to a car wreck. After half time they stepped up and we could not go with them. We got slayed in the centre and they simply had field position from there, so we spent the entire second half trying to play the game from the back foot.

What was noticeable was that our run stopped, no-one was leading to offer an option, which became critical given that we were playing the game from D50. People criticising Wood, yeah there were some chronic (and uncharacteristic IMO) turnovers, but at least he was winning the pill, and a lot of the turnover problem came from a lack of options presenting further down the field. To a degree Hill looked the same to me, he looked like he was trying to make something happen, but it was forced, and from a bad position, and with limited/no options to go to. People potting individuals, remember it's an 18 player team game.

If you want to pot individuals, look no further than our mids. Crouch has been great, and had 22 to half time - what did he have after that? I know what Steele had for the day, that's been mentioned a lot. One of my comments in the 3rd quarter was "is there any danger of us getting a centre clearance?"

AS someone else mentioned here, they went one on one in the second half, and they stopped us dead.

The other aspect that has not been mentioned that I thought played a significant role, was the umpiring. We should have been a fair bit further in front at half time and our forwards (King in particular) being shepherded out of contests, pushed under the ball, or simply blocked/scragged and prevented from getting to a contest was bloody terrible. They got away with it completely unpunished by the umpires, and at one stage King was simply blatantly scragged 30 metres off a contest, with no other players anywhere nearby and it stood out like the proverbial.

We played very poorly after half time, still have our perennial midfield lack of talent, but we were done no favours yesterday. Having said that, we had them on toast at half time, and should never have let that one slip.

 

[bergholt]

That's not to mention we have a list capable of it too.

Yeah maybe just, but clearly three different coaches haven't been able to get consistent good performance out of this core group.

Burn it to the ground and start again imo.