- Mar 12, 2003
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In the time honoured tradition of those who would rather beg for forgiveness than ask for permission, I've decided to prepare the preview for Saturday.
As it did 3 weeks ago, Match Of The Round comes to the Gabba, this time in the Saturday 1:45 timeslot, for I reckon the first time since Round 22 of 2019, when our Lions stole a gripping 1 point victory from Geelong to ascend to the top of the ladder for the first time in 12 years. This time, we're up against the 4th placed Giants, who of course did an absolute number on us back in Round 7 at Manuka Oval on ANZAC Day. Both teams need a win to shore up their current ladder positions, while a loss could send either team tumbling down the ladder.
A loss can knock us down to 5th, while the Giants could fall as low as 7th. On the flipside, if Collingwood extract the digit against Sydney on Friday night, we could be playing for top spot on Saturday, as we were that famous day back in 2019. The Giants could also move to second, and be separated from Sydney on top only by percentage, should they get the chocolates on Saturday. Everything to play for!
Potential Records
A win on Saturday will be our 10th on end, our longest winning streak under Chris Fagan, and will equal our 2nd longest ever, set by the barnstorming run of 1999 which was at the time described as "an out of control freight train".
Conditions
The weather this time of year in Queensland is fantastic and on the improve. We have a maximum of 24 forecast for Saturday, a little warmer than the day we played Sydney. Unlike that day which featured a virtually cloudless sky, there is a small chance of rain, and there may be a bit of cloud cover, but nothing that should really get in the way of some quality footy.
Teams
Both teams have their selection quandaries this week. We're still waiting and crossing our fingers on the fitness of Hippy and Darragh, but you would imagine that if both are fit, they come straight back into the team. Hipwood you would imagine comes back for Smith, while Joyce comes in for Prior.
There has been a bit of chat in the unofficial preview thread about whether we would want to load up on our talls for this game, given the Giants' height (ironically) at both ends of the ground. I'd caution against outsmarting ourselves, and backing our group to execute Plan A, as they have done reasonably well over the last 9 weeks.
Potentially if only Hipwood is fit to play, he may come into the team at the expense of Prior, with the ability to be deployed at either end of the ground should the various matchups warrant it.
For the Giants, they are expecting to regain Josh Kelly with Steve Coniglio also to possibly return. Both quality players, you would imagine two midfielders would make way for them, who exactly I am not sure, having seen relatively little of the Giants in recent weeks.
We can expect full 23's and emergencies at 6:20 tomorrow night, with final teams (including the sub) posted 12:45pm Saturday.
Matchups
Who goes to Hogan? There has been a bit of chat this week about how the Giants have been able to manipulate the matchups in their favour in recent weeks. Nevertheless, I'd like to see Lester be given first crack, with the preparedness to move Andrews onto him as early as the first quarter if Hogan is threatening to tear the game apart. In the meantime, Andrews would go to Cadman. While Cadman arguably shades Andrews for athleticism, Andrews should have Cadman covered via his height advantage and ability to read the play. Cadman will also most likely play further afield, providing Andrews more opportunities to get into the game via his intercept marking, ideally springboarding our forward thrusts.
Having said that, Lester on Cadman and Andrews on Hogan certainly wouldn't be the end of the world. Lester has shown before with his jobs on the likes of Jeremy Cameron, he is capable of doing a job on those taller yet mobile key forwards. It may simply limit Andrews' ability to play that intercept marking role.
The neutrals will find mouthwatering the matchups between the troupe of Daniels/Greene/Bedford/Jones and Starcevich/Zorko/Wilmot/Brain. This has the potential to be a real game of Russian roulette. Each of these Giants players have shown a tendency to get up the ground and then try to beat their opponent on the way back. But if our forward half pressure is good, this may give our guys, particularly Zorko, an opening to impact the game in an attacking sense from our front half.
Ultimately, Starce probably goes to Greene in more of a lockdown role, with Berry or Dunkley taking him when he (inevitably) goes into the middle. How we handover here will be crucial - we saw the Hawks were unable to do this on Sunday, and it left him loose to wreak havoc in the last quarter. Communication between Starce and our mids will be critical here.
In the middle I'd love to see Jarrod Berry go to Tom Green, but Berry has been spending a lot more time on the wing recently so I'd be surprised to see this.
At the other end, I'd like to see Ah Chee get a run-with role on Whitfield. He was heavily involved in their last quarter comeback on Sunday, so this will need to be a disciplined, four quarter role, which Cal has shown he is capable of.
As for the more traditional forward half matchups, Taylor took Daniher last year so I'd expect to see that again. Buckley probably goes to Hipwood, although I wonder if the Giants might find Himmelberg a more suitable matchup for him. This leaves Buckley, Himmelberg or Idun on Morris. Either way it will be important for our talls to compete hard in the air, as always.
How we deal with their 4th tall defender will be interesting. Idun is pretty mobile so he may get tasked with playing on Lohmann. Either way I'd be uncomfortable going in with 4 talls in our forward 7, as I think it would hinder our ability to apply that fanatical forward half pressure which was arguably the cornerstone of our win on Sunday. It may be an occasion for the ugly, scrappy kicks inside 50 that are nigh on impossible to mark, which may favour our smaller guys, and allow us to take advantage of any mismatches.
Strategy
It's been a bit clunky in recent weeks but the Giants are trying to bring back the orange tsunami. Their high handballing game is back, they love to take a bounce or 3, and they've been exceptionally efficient going inside 50. Indeed, in recent weeks they are #1 in the comp for taking marks inside 50 and #2 for goals per inside 50. So a massive challenge for our team defence on Saturday. It was excellent on Sunday, but it's a safe bet this Giants team will move the ball infinitely better than the Saints did. Our pressure will have to be on, and we will need to deny them the corridor at every opportunity.
On the flipside, our clearance game has been on song recently, both out of the middle and around the ground. On Saturday this will be crucial to our ability to play the game in our front half, and force the Giants to come through our press if they want to score. If we can slow their ball movement, we go a long way to winning on Saturday. We are #1 for winning defensive one on one contests, and for intercept marks differential in recent weeks, while the Giants are #18 in the latter. The Giants are also #18 in the comp for taking intercept marks recently, so a huge opportunity for our forwards to compete hard in the air, and even if they can't mark, bring the ball to ground and bring our smaller guys into play.
The Giants are also #17 in the comp for scoring from turnover, while we are #2 in the comp at defending after we lose possession. All the more reason to win clearances and play the game in our front half.
Accuracy is always important, but it has the potential to be a double edged sword on Saturday. The Giants are #2 in the comp at scoring from kick-ins, while we are #18 at conceding scores from kick-ins in recent weeks.
Quarter by quarter
Long story short, if we can start well, and finish well, it will stand us in good stead, particularly with a warm day expected.
The Verdict
Leading into Saturday, there's about as many statistical areas favouring the Giants as there are that favour us. The key difference is that most of the areas the Giants are strong in, say more about the way they want to play, rather than how well they've been doing it. The Giants will want to link up by hand, through the corridor if possible, and then they'll probably be pretty efficient when they get inside 50.
This means they will give us a chance to play the spoiler. Get a fingertip in, grab the back of the shorts, take every tiny little opportunity to break up their forward momentum. Rinse and repeat exactly what we did on Sunday, except we'll probably need to do it better, and more often, given I can't imagine the Giants engaging in any prolonged periods of sideways kick-mark the way the Saints did.
If we can do that, we give ourselves the chance to score from turnovers, and if we're able to control stoppages, we give ourselves the best possible chance of playing the game in our front half.
I see ahead an afternoon which tests players and supporters alike, our lads being pushed all the way, but having the discipline to quell the tsunami often enough and well enough to get the job done.
Brisbane 103
Greater Western Sydney 83
As it did 3 weeks ago, Match Of The Round comes to the Gabba, this time in the Saturday 1:45 timeslot, for I reckon the first time since Round 22 of 2019, when our Lions stole a gripping 1 point victory from Geelong to ascend to the top of the ladder for the first time in 12 years. This time, we're up against the 4th placed Giants, who of course did an absolute number on us back in Round 7 at Manuka Oval on ANZAC Day. Both teams need a win to shore up their current ladder positions, while a loss could send either team tumbling down the ladder.
A loss can knock us down to 5th, while the Giants could fall as low as 7th. On the flipside, if Collingwood extract the digit against Sydney on Friday night, we could be playing for top spot on Saturday, as we were that famous day back in 2019. The Giants could also move to second, and be separated from Sydney on top only by percentage, should they get the chocolates on Saturday. Everything to play for!
Potential Records
A win on Saturday will be our 10th on end, our longest winning streak under Chris Fagan, and will equal our 2nd longest ever, set by the barnstorming run of 1999 which was at the time described as "an out of control freight train".
Conditions
The weather this time of year in Queensland is fantastic and on the improve. We have a maximum of 24 forecast for Saturday, a little warmer than the day we played Sydney. Unlike that day which featured a virtually cloudless sky, there is a small chance of rain, and there may be a bit of cloud cover, but nothing that should really get in the way of some quality footy.
Teams
Both teams have their selection quandaries this week. We're still waiting and crossing our fingers on the fitness of Hippy and Darragh, but you would imagine that if both are fit, they come straight back into the team. Hipwood you would imagine comes back for Smith, while Joyce comes in for Prior.
There has been a bit of chat in the unofficial preview thread about whether we would want to load up on our talls for this game, given the Giants' height (ironically) at both ends of the ground. I'd caution against outsmarting ourselves, and backing our group to execute Plan A, as they have done reasonably well over the last 9 weeks.
Potentially if only Hipwood is fit to play, he may come into the team at the expense of Prior, with the ability to be deployed at either end of the ground should the various matchups warrant it.
For the Giants, they are expecting to regain Josh Kelly with Steve Coniglio also to possibly return. Both quality players, you would imagine two midfielders would make way for them, who exactly I am not sure, having seen relatively little of the Giants in recent weeks.
We can expect full 23's and emergencies at 6:20 tomorrow night, with final teams (including the sub) posted 12:45pm Saturday.
Matchups
Who goes to Hogan? There has been a bit of chat this week about how the Giants have been able to manipulate the matchups in their favour in recent weeks. Nevertheless, I'd like to see Lester be given first crack, with the preparedness to move Andrews onto him as early as the first quarter if Hogan is threatening to tear the game apart. In the meantime, Andrews would go to Cadman. While Cadman arguably shades Andrews for athleticism, Andrews should have Cadman covered via his height advantage and ability to read the play. Cadman will also most likely play further afield, providing Andrews more opportunities to get into the game via his intercept marking, ideally springboarding our forward thrusts.
Having said that, Lester on Cadman and Andrews on Hogan certainly wouldn't be the end of the world. Lester has shown before with his jobs on the likes of Jeremy Cameron, he is capable of doing a job on those taller yet mobile key forwards. It may simply limit Andrews' ability to play that intercept marking role.
The neutrals will find mouthwatering the matchups between the troupe of Daniels/Greene/Bedford/Jones and Starcevich/Zorko/Wilmot/Brain. This has the potential to be a real game of Russian roulette. Each of these Giants players have shown a tendency to get up the ground and then try to beat their opponent on the way back. But if our forward half pressure is good, this may give our guys, particularly Zorko, an opening to impact the game in an attacking sense from our front half.
Ultimately, Starce probably goes to Greene in more of a lockdown role, with Berry or Dunkley taking him when he (inevitably) goes into the middle. How we handover here will be crucial - we saw the Hawks were unable to do this on Sunday, and it left him loose to wreak havoc in the last quarter. Communication between Starce and our mids will be critical here.
In the middle I'd love to see Jarrod Berry go to Tom Green, but Berry has been spending a lot more time on the wing recently so I'd be surprised to see this.
At the other end, I'd like to see Ah Chee get a run-with role on Whitfield. He was heavily involved in their last quarter comeback on Sunday, so this will need to be a disciplined, four quarter role, which Cal has shown he is capable of.
As for the more traditional forward half matchups, Taylor took Daniher last year so I'd expect to see that again. Buckley probably goes to Hipwood, although I wonder if the Giants might find Himmelberg a more suitable matchup for him. This leaves Buckley, Himmelberg or Idun on Morris. Either way it will be important for our talls to compete hard in the air, as always.
How we deal with their 4th tall defender will be interesting. Idun is pretty mobile so he may get tasked with playing on Lohmann. Either way I'd be uncomfortable going in with 4 talls in our forward 7, as I think it would hinder our ability to apply that fanatical forward half pressure which was arguably the cornerstone of our win on Sunday. It may be an occasion for the ugly, scrappy kicks inside 50 that are nigh on impossible to mark, which may favour our smaller guys, and allow us to take advantage of any mismatches.
Strategy
It's been a bit clunky in recent weeks but the Giants are trying to bring back the orange tsunami. Their high handballing game is back, they love to take a bounce or 3, and they've been exceptionally efficient going inside 50. Indeed, in recent weeks they are #1 in the comp for taking marks inside 50 and #2 for goals per inside 50. So a massive challenge for our team defence on Saturday. It was excellent on Sunday, but it's a safe bet this Giants team will move the ball infinitely better than the Saints did. Our pressure will have to be on, and we will need to deny them the corridor at every opportunity.
On the flipside, our clearance game has been on song recently, both out of the middle and around the ground. On Saturday this will be crucial to our ability to play the game in our front half, and force the Giants to come through our press if they want to score. If we can slow their ball movement, we go a long way to winning on Saturday. We are #1 for winning defensive one on one contests, and for intercept marks differential in recent weeks, while the Giants are #18 in the latter. The Giants are also #18 in the comp for taking intercept marks recently, so a huge opportunity for our forwards to compete hard in the air, and even if they can't mark, bring the ball to ground and bring our smaller guys into play.
The Giants are also #17 in the comp for scoring from turnover, while we are #2 in the comp at defending after we lose possession. All the more reason to win clearances and play the game in our front half.
Accuracy is always important, but it has the potential to be a double edged sword on Saturday. The Giants are #2 in the comp at scoring from kick-ins, while we are #18 at conceding scores from kick-ins in recent weeks.
Quarter by quarter
Long story short, if we can start well, and finish well, it will stand us in good stead, particularly with a warm day expected.
The Verdict
Leading into Saturday, there's about as many statistical areas favouring the Giants as there are that favour us. The key difference is that most of the areas the Giants are strong in, say more about the way they want to play, rather than how well they've been doing it. The Giants will want to link up by hand, through the corridor if possible, and then they'll probably be pretty efficient when they get inside 50.
This means they will give us a chance to play the spoiler. Get a fingertip in, grab the back of the shorts, take every tiny little opportunity to break up their forward momentum. Rinse and repeat exactly what we did on Sunday, except we'll probably need to do it better, and more often, given I can't imagine the Giants engaging in any prolonged periods of sideways kick-mark the way the Saints did.
If we can do that, we give ourselves the chance to score from turnovers, and if we're able to control stoppages, we give ourselves the best possible chance of playing the game in our front half.
I see ahead an afternoon which tests players and supporters alike, our lads being pushed all the way, but having the discipline to quell the tsunami often enough and well enough to get the job done.
Brisbane 103
Greater Western Sydney 83
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