We were 5-4 last year - Melbourne were 9-0 - and we finished two games clear on top.
A lot of the season still to play out as you say.
100%
In the end I just wanna hit finals (assuming we make them) with a fit and inform list.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 4 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
We were 5-4 last year - Melbourne were 9-0 - and we finished two games clear on top.
A lot of the season still to play out as you say.
Any of the sides looking good right now could have their own horror injury run yet and derail their season, to early to be locking sides into top 4 for me.Believe me, still loving what we achieved last year- this season interrupts that joy. I know, life goes on, but the near perfect season and execution will likely never be repeated by Geelong in my lifetime.
Not really. 4 weeks is not that short. Technically, you can call it a form of management, but we need wins, and Freo away, and Doggies anywhere are big challenges
Last week I was pretty optimistic about our season and thought that we could come back from a poor opening 1-2 months and have a really good end to the season (like we did last year) to finish top 4, but my optimism has been shattered after our loss to Richmond and recent injuries.
We have a tough set of fixtures coming up - between now and end of the season, we play the following:
- Dogs (6th)
- Port (4th)
- Demons (2nd)
- Lions (3rd)
- Port (4th)
- Pies (1st)
- Saints (5th)
- Dogs (6th)
To finish top 4, we can only afford to lose 2-3 games between now and the end of August, but looking at the list of opponents above, I just can’t see that happening.
Fair enough.Any of the sides looking good right now could have their own horror injury run yet and derail their season, to early to be locking sides into top 4 for me.
true, if we do, but Doggies are improved, with potent MF and forwards, and a great ruck. I see them as closing in on top 4, and being too settled to get done by us in the next 2 weeks.I think if we win 2 of the next 3 to the bye we're fine. We'll probably drop to Freo but beat GWS and Doggies.
We still have 6 games out of 11 at Geelong in the 2nd half of the year.
I think we will be battling with Bulldogs for the 5th position which wouldn't be the end of the world. We may actually get a home final against Adelaide or St Kilda (worst case Richmond if they sneak in).
Unfortunately, I don't think top 4 is possible looking at Port and Brisbane's fixture. We would need to beat Port in Adelaide and/or Brisbane at the Gabba to have a chance.
I think we will be battling with Bulldogs for the 5th position which wouldn't be the end of the world. We may actually get a home final against Adelaide or St Kilda (worst case Richmond if they sneak in).
Rounds 12 to 15 will ultimately determine where we finish.
12 - Bulldogs at Marvel (50/50)
13 - BYE
14 - Port in Adelaide (40/60)
15 - Melbourne in Geelong (50/50)
We play both Bulldogs and Port again in Geelong which are no guaranteed wins. Bulldogs in the final round at GMBHA could be a playoff for a top 4/5 position..
AFL making us play Collingwood at the MCG twice is the biggest farce. Our management should do all in its power to never let this happen again once our stadium redevelopment is complete.
Collingwood, Melbourne, and Brisbane should safely hold the top 3 positions and Port look like holding the 4th unless we can beat them twice.
Side note, we play all 6 teams above us on the ladder at least once so our destiny is in our own hands.
We can’t beat Freo without either Danger or Guthrie. I’d roll the dice is either of them is 80%, based on Scott’s comments during the week Danger could have pushed to play v Tigers.
History says you have basically no chance of winning the flag from outside the top four. It would be a bad result to finish outside the top four in one of our "prime Jez + Tomahawk in the same team" years. It's such a rare thing to have two forwards of that quality in the same team. Some teams have literally never had such a luxury in their whole club history. To squander a chance to capitalise on that like we did last year would be a huge waste.
true, if we do, but Doggies are improved, with potent MF and forwards, and a great ruck. I see them as closing in on top 4, and being too settled to get done by us in the next 2 weeks.
Historically yes but this is the weakest top 4 we have seen in many years. I can see an in form team winning it from 6th this year.
I agree 1000% with you
Im not that perturbed if Geel dont finish top 4 - for the very reason you have stated
Terribly weak comp - Geel get all their players fit and firing re Sept -bottom part of 8 you need to win 4 games to win flag - top 4 - have to still win 3 games to win the premiership - one double chance - but last 2 finals sudden death - and we have seen numerous short price faves on PF night get the jitters
And Geel in the finals this year - have got no pressure on them whatsoever - because the Premiership drought clock for the Cats is sitting at Zero years .
We should, as long they’re properly good to goIt Depends on what personal we have back, I believe most will be back before the bye. If we get around 5-6 players back, then I think we should win that.
Perhaps but the only thing defeating us at this point is our injury list. The slow start of course didn’t help either. It’s not like we are fielding a full strength team and “wasting” it.History says you have basically no chance of winning the flag from outside the top four. It would be a bad result to finish outside the top four in one of our "prime Jez + Tomahawk in the same team" years. It's such a rare thing to have two forwards of that quality in the same team. Some teams have literally never had such a luxury in their whole club history. To squander a chance to capitalise on that like we did last year would be a huge waste.
Perhaps but the only thing defeating us at this point is our injury list. The slow start of course didn’t help either. It’s not like we are fielding a full strength team and “wasting” it.