So How Dangerous is COVID Really?

[Lavender Bushranger]

This is the most important aspect of the entire lockdown and vaccination debate.

How dangerous is it really?

Does it only really hurt old and/or unhealthy people?

Should we just live with it?

The answers to the above really sway the debate about lockdowns one way or the other, yet real data around it is actual quite hard to find.

Reported today are the following quotes:

"In Los Angeles County, health officials said Saturday that 83 per cent of 1094 newly reported cases were among people under the age of 50. Residents aged 18 to 49 account for 70 per cent of those cases."

...and...

Dr. Dana Hawkinson, an infectious disease physician at the University of Kansas Health System, said he has noticed hospitalizations rising among young, otherwise healthy people.

"We are seeing patients in their 20s and 30s who are otherwise healthy who are coming because of worsening symptoms ... today, in the hospital, in the ICU, who are needing to have ventilator and high oxygen support," he said. "Again, because they're unvaccinated. It is completely preventable if you get vaccinated."

...and...

The delta variant and the number of unvaccinated young people have also been concerns for health officials in St. Louis County, Missouri.

Two weeks ago, "there were 89 patients admitted to ICU beds for Covid-related conditions across the St. Louis metro area," Dr. Faisal Khan, director of the county's Public Health Department, said on MSNBC. "Each of those individuals was unvaccinated, and they were from the relatively younger age group between 18 to 50."

The 'it's just the flu' crew post nonsense numbers all the time that don't help the discussion at all - but I'm finding it hard to get actual data about it.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

According to the WHO, in regards to the flu:

Every year across the globe, there are an estimated 1 billion cases, of which 3 to 5 million are severe cases, resulting in 290 000 to 650 000 influenza-related respiratory deaths.

And in 2020, there were about 3m deaths from COVID - and this was whilst a huge chunk of the planet was locked down or under restrictions.

Assuming these numbers are even remotely accurate, comparing the dangers of COVID with the flu seems foolish.

But it's still hard to get hospitalization numbers for young people.

 

[Shannon M]

This is the most important aspect of the entire lockdown and vaccination debate.

How dangerous is it really?

Does it only really hurt old and/or unhealthy people?

Should we just live with it?

The answers to the above really sway the debate about lockdowns one way or the other, yet real data around it is actual quite hard to find.

Reported today are the following quotes:

"In Los Angeles County, health officials said Saturday that 83 per cent of 1094 newly reported cases were among people under the age of 50. Residents aged 18 to 49 account for 70 per cent of those cases."

Case numbers aren't relevant. That just means they have antibodies not suffering from the disease. You have to look at deaths and hospitalisations which as a percentage.

 

[Connoisseur]

Fairly dangerous for the elderly and those that are relatively young but have comorbidities. For the rest of the population I doubt it poses any greater risk than the common flu, at least not from the statistics that I have glanced over in articles. I'm strictly looking at it from the number of deaths that have occurred as a result of covid.

 

[Vdubs]

Fairly dangerous for the elderly and those that are relatively young but have comorbidities. For the rest of the population I doubt it poses any greater risk than the common flu, at least not from the statistics that I have glanced over in articles. I'm strictly looking at it from the number of deaths that have occurred as a result of covid.

How Dangerous Is the Delta Variant, and Will It Cause a COVID Surge in the U.S.?

A new, more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2 is rapidly spreading in the country and poses a threat to unvaccinated and partially vaccinated people

www.scientificamerican.com

 

[Shannon M]

Fairly dangerous for the elderly and those that are relatively young but have comorbidities. For the rest of the population I doubt it poses any greater risk than the common flu, at least not from the statistics that I have glanced over in articles. I'm strictly looking at it from the number of deaths that have occurred as a result of covid.

Flu is more dangerous to children than COVID.

 

[Vdubs]

Flu is more dangerous to children than COVID.

The stats show that young people (18-29) are more resistant to having the vaccines and are spreaders. But just because ostensibly, this group has not become as ill as others, what will have an impact is that many young people are also in ICU beds. This delta strain is more potent. Why take the chance?

 

[Shannon M]

The stats show that young people (18-29) are more resistant to having the vaccines and are spreaders. But just because ostensibly, this group has not become as ill as others, what will have an impact is that many young people are also in ICU beds. This delta strain is more potent. Why take the chance?

Delta is not more potent it's more infectious. More infectious usually translates into being less lethal.

In Australia only 5 people under 50 have died from COVID. 900 odd people over 50 have died from COVID.

I'll let you make up your mind as to whether it's best for someone under 50 to hide themselves away from the world for the rest of their lives because of COVID.

Vaccinated people are still infectious. They will be taking zero precautions and asymptomatic if infected, so they are the real danger.

 

[Vdubs]

Delta is not more potent it's more infectious. More infectious usually translates into being less lethal.

In Australia only 5 people under 50 have died from COVID. 900 odd people over 50 have died from COVID.

I'll let you make up your mind as to whether it's best for someone under 50 to hide themselves away from the world for the rest of their lives because of COVID.

Vaccinated people are still infectious. They will be taking zero precautions and asymptomatic if infected, so they are the real danger.

No, it's also more potent.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

In Australia only 5 people under 50 have died from COVID. 900 odd people over 50 have died from COVID.

I'll let you make up your mind as to whether it's best for someone under 50 to hide themselves away from the world for the rest of their lives because of COVID.

Vaccinated people are still infectious. They will be taking zero precautions and asymptomatic if infected, so they are the real danger.

I don't think that's sound logic at all.

 

[Shannon M]

No, it's also more potent.

There you go. Lockdowns and restrictions are creating the environment for only the more aggressive strains to get through the 'barrier' and become dominant.
Vaccines will have similar effect and allow the strains with the most resistant characteristics to become dominant. Similar to how antibiotics encourage more aggressive strains of the clap over time.

This is happening in fast forward with the virus being constantly spread by 8 billion people, virus constantly replicating and mutant strains being created.

 

[Shannon M]

I don't think that's sound logic at all.

It looks fairly obvious to me that you have little chance of dying from COVID if you're under 50 compared to someone over 50.

 

[Vdubs]

There you go. Lockdowns and restrictions are creating the environment for only the more aggressive strains to get through the 'barrier' and become dominant.
Vaccines will have similar effect and allow the strains with the most resistant characteristics to become dominant. Similar to how antibiotics encourage more aggressive strains of the clap over time.

This is happening in fast forward with the virus being constantly spread by 8 billion people, virus constantly replicating and mutant strains being created.

We are continually playing catch-up. The vaccines are not meant to be manufactured that quickly for starters, yet the virus has already been modified before the world has been vaccinated with stage 1 vaccines.

 

[The 747]

This is the most important aspect of the entire lockdown and vaccination debate.

How dangerous is it really?

Does it only really hurt old and/or unhealthy people?

Should we just live with it?

The answers to the above really sway the debate about lockdowns one way or the other, yet real data around it is actual quite hard to find.

The 'it's just the flu' crew post nonsense numbers all the time that don't help the discussion at all - but I'm finding it hard to get actual data about it.

Yes, Governments are not quick to report in general and the data we have is rich from some countries and non existent from other countries. It will be quite a while before the full quantum of damage can be assessed and even that will not be accurate due to variance in data between countries. Plus the long term effects are not yet fully understood.

Since essentially every country of all political persuasion has put restrictions in place it is also hard to assess what the impact would have been without those restrictions. But probably worse. Every infection is a chance for the virus to mutate into a worse virus, as we see with the Delta variant that evolved in India probably due to the infection numbers there.

My 2C. Just a final point, there is no debate about lockdown the Government can do what it likes and we can't do much about it. A bit of a reminder about how much we have given up through the creeping acceptance of expanded Government powers everywhere.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

It looks fairly obvious to me that you have little chance of dying from COVID if you're under 50 compared to someone over 50.

Read the OP.

 

[Shannon M]

Young people are the ones who will be out and socialising and taking few precautions, so it stands to reason you will see increase in hospitalisations compared to when there were restrictions. Not to mention the US has an obesity epidemic they are one of the fattest countries in the world. Obese young people a many times more likely to die from COVID than a normal young person.

 

[The 747]

Young people are the ones who will be out and socialising and taking few precautions, so it stands to reason you will see increase in hospitalisations compared to when there were restrictions. Not to mention the US has an obesity epidemic they are one of the fattest countries in the world. Obese young people a many times more likely to die from COVID than a normal young person.

So is Australia, US is 3rd in the world, we are sixth.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Young people are the ones who will be out and socialising and taking few precautions, so it stands to reason you will see increase in hospitalisations compared to when there were restrictions. Not to mention the US has an obesity epidemic they are one of the fattest countries in the world. Obese young people a many times more likely to die from COVID than a normal young person.

As per the OP, I was hoping for some actual facts and numbers.

Not just more cut and paste nonsense.

 

[Pessimistic]

Delta is not more potent it's more infectious. More infectious usually translates into being less lethal.

In Australia only 5 people under 50 have died from COVID. 900 odd people over 50 have died from COVID.

I'll let you make up your mind as to whether it's best for someone under 50 to hide themselves away from the world for the rest of their lives because of COVID.

Vaccinated people are still infectious. They will be taking zero precautions and asymptomatic if infected, so they are the real danger.

last sentence makes perfect sense

 

[The 747]

Lavender Bushranger the Economist has some data you might be interested in:

Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries

In many parts of the world, official death tolls undercount the total number of fatalities

www.economist.com

 

[Connoisseur]

There you go. Lockdowns and restrictions are creating the environment for only the more aggressive strains to get through the 'barrier' and become dominant.
Vaccines will have similar effect and allow the strains with the most resistant characteristics to become dominant. Similar to how antibiotics encourage more aggressive strains of the clap over time.

This is happening in fast forward with the virus being constantly spread by 8 billion people, virus constantly replicating and mutant strains being created.

This is one of the best posts in Big Footy in a long time, succinct and to the point. If I could give it a hundred likes I would.

We are only delaying the inevitable in Australia, people that have compromised immune systems are unfortunately vulnerable to these sorts of viruses and the various vaccines produced may help some of them survive.

But because the virus hasn't ripped through in Australia like it has in most other parts of the world, it's uncertain what percentage of these vulnerable (presumably vaccinated) people will successfully recover from covid once they're eventually infected.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

If you get covid and recover (as 99+% do) are you then immune, or can you get it again?

 

[JackFlash]

Australian Department of Health figures 21/7/21: 125 Hospitalisations 25 in ICU in all of Australia.

The Media circus begins again at 11am and the terror will continue, Gladys will thank everybody and Mr Condescending will have his say, meanwhile, NSW will be locked up for who knows how long? People are now living in fear believing they will drop dead in the middle of the street or the supermarket check out?

The Dan the Man show will be on approximately at the same time with 26 cases today and he will say the word "Challenge" at least 20 times, but give us no real answers? The Grand Final will not be in Melbourne in front of a crowd, that is a given.

South Australia's Mr Marshmallow just feels lonely (6 cases today) and follow whatever NSW and VIC do. The Queen of Queensland has just won a "Bradbury" bid that will cost us all $5 billion for the 2032 Olympic games no one else wants! Lockdowns cost $300 million per day!

Put on your red nose, we are the clowns and the Premiers are the ringmasters, it begins again very shortly.

It's all Vaccination PR, vaccines, vaccines and vaccines, get your vaccine says Gladys! I'm fully vaccinated, but i'm not going to live under a rock for the rest of my life!

 

[HPKS]

Australian Department of Health figures 21/7/21: 125 Hospitalisations 25 in ICU in all of Australia.

The Media circus begins again at 11am and the terror will continue, Gladys will thank everybody and Mr Condescending will have his say, meanwhile, NSW will be locked up for who knows how long? People are now living in fear believing they will drop dead in the middle of the street or the supermarket check out?

The Dan the Man show will be on approximately at the same time with 26 cases today and he will say the word "Challenge" at least 20 times, but give us no real answers? The Grand Final will not be in Melbourne in front of a crowd, that is a given.

South Australia's Mr Marshmallow just feels lonely (6 cases today) and follow whatever NSW and VIC do. The Queen of Queensland has just won a "Bradbury" bid that will cost us all $5 billion for the 2032 Olympic games no one else wants! Lockdowns cost $300 million per day!

Put on your red nose, we are the clowns and the Premiers are the ringmasters, it begins again very shortly.

It's all Vaccination PR, vaccines, vaccines and vaccines, get your vaccine says Gladys! I'm fully vaccinated, but i'm not going to live under a rock for the rest of my life!

Unless the country moves out of the lockdown mode eventually a lot will give up on getting their vaccination booster after being vaccinated. Which creates issues later on. Atm there’s incentive to be vaccinated but if the hand break release doesn’t happen a lot of people will abandon the vaccine down the track. Imo It is the way out of this but the carrot and stick approach will only work for so long.

 

[JackFlash]

Unless the country moves out of the lockdown mode eventually a lot will give up on getting their vaccination booster after being vaccinated. Which creates issues later on. Atm there’s incentive to be vaccinated but if the hand break release doesn’t happen a lot of people will abandon the vaccine down the track. Imo It is the way out of this but the carrot and stick approach will only work for so long.

Yes, i have had the vaccinations (no problem) and will continue to check-in and wear the mask, doing all the right things, but there is only so much people can take of this, watching the pressers is depressing and both Gladys and Dan are like a couple of form monitors at school telling all the rest of us kids the rules?