Stats from winning the spoon to flag since 2000

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Nomore4s

Nomore4s

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Jul 23, 2012
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Some stats of teams to get a wooden spoon and go on and win a premiership.

Of the 12 teams to win a spoon since 2000, only 4 have won a flag. Of those 4, 2 won multiple spoons before winning a flag.
Bulldogs 2003 to 2016 - 13 years
Richmond 2004 & 2007 to 2017, 2019, 2020 - 10 years
Melbourne 2008 & 2009 to 2021 - 12 years
West Coast 2010 to 2018 - 8 years

None of the coaches in charge when they won the spoon were the coaches in charge when they won the flag. The quickest turnaround was 8 years.
Not one team who has taken the wooden spoon since 2011 has won a flag. That is 11 completed seasons now.

Only others to have made a GF after winning a spoon since 2000.
St Kilda 2000 to 2009 & 2010 - 9 years
Freo 2001 to 2013 - 12 years
GWS 2012 & 2013 to 2019 - 6 years

The only coach to coach a spoon and GF appearance was Leon Cameron in a team that had a heap of concessions and that still took 6 years. They are also the only team that won a spoon after 2011 to make a GF.

History is against a quick rebuild from where we are, we are looking at least 6-8 years from here. That’s if everything goes right. And history is against Sam Mitchell being the next premiership coach of the Hawthorn footy club.

The other issue I have is the Hawks aren’t as far down the rebuild track as some supporters like to think. Our latest dynasty was built on the back of 2 generational key forward talents in Rough and Buddy, plus 2 generational leaders in Mitchell and Hodge with a stack of quality mids that we then recruited around.
We currently don’t have those quality talls(DGB may eventually come good but I’m not sold), we are still yet to draft them. I personally think we are 10 years from any real success unless we get exceptionally lucky.

I personally think the Hawks will struggle for longer than most think, especially if we do end up winning the spoon. I certainly hope I’m wrong but historically it’s not looking good.
 
Nomore4s said:
Some stats of teams to get a wooden spoon and go on and win a premiership.

Of the 12 teams to win a spoon since 2000, only 4 have won a flag. Of those 4, 2 won multiple spoons before winning a flag.
Bulldogs 2003 to 2016 - 13 years
Richmond 2004 & 2007 to 2017, 2019, 2020 - 10 years
Melbourne 2008 & 2009 to 2021 - 12 years
West Coast 2010 to 2018 - 8 years

None of the coaches in charge when they won the spoon were the coaches in charge when they won the flag. The quickest turnaround was 8 years.
Not one team who has taken the wooden spoon since 2011 has won a flag. That is 11 completed seasons now.

Only others to have made a GF after winning a spoon since 2000.
St Kilda 2000 to 2009 & 2010 - 9 years
Freo 2001 to 2013 - 12 years
GWS 2012 & 2013 to 2019 - 6 years

The only coach to coach a spoon and GF appearance was Leon Cameron in a team that had a heap of concessions and that still took 6 years. They are also the only team that won a spoon after 2011 to make a GF.

History is against a quick rebuild from where we are, we are looking at least 6-8 years from here. That’s if everything goes right. And history is against Sam Mitchell being the next premiership coach of the Hawthorn footy club.

The other issue I have is the Hawks aren’t as far down the rebuild track as some supporters like to think. Our latest dynasty was built on the back of 2 generational key forward talents in Rough and Buddy, plus 2 generational leaders in Mitchell and Hodge with a stack of quality mids that we then recruited around.
We currently don’t have those quality talls(DGB may eventually come good but I’m not sold), we are still yet to draft them. I personally think we are 10 years from any real success unless we get exceptionally lucky.

I personally think the Hawks will struggle for longer than most think, especially if we do end up winning the spoon. I certainly hope I’m wrong but historically it’s not looking good.
Click to expand...
Thanks for this mate. We could well have a number of 'generational' players among the squad right now - you can only judge this is in hindsight.
 
Can I just point out one thing…?

We are yet to Win the spoon.

I never thought as a supporter base we’d be so keen to latch onto it by Round 2, but here we are.


Secondly, whatever Carlton, GWS, Melbourne or Richmond have done is irrelevant to whether Hawthorn succeed or fail.
Drafting, environment, development, coaching were all issues at different levels at all of those clubs, and Hawthorn will either succeed or fail for their very own reasons.

I know the main board trolls like to say “Carlton were shit for over 10 years, that’s what Hawthorn will have to look forward to!” But that’s as dumb as someone coming on here and saying Mitch Lewis’s knee is cactus because I did my knee once when I played local footy and it never came good.
 

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Strapping Young Lad said:
Can I just point out one thing…?

We are yet to Win the spoon.

I never thought as a supporter base we’d be so keen to latch onto it by Round 2, but here we are.


Secondly, whatever Carlton, GWS, Melbourne or Richmond have done is irrelevant to whether Hawthorn succeed or fail.
Drafting, environment, development, coaching were all issues at different levels at all of those clubs, and Hawthorn will either succeed or fail for their very own reasons.

I know the main board trolls like to say “Carlton were s**t for over 10 years, that’s what Hawthorn will have to look forward to!” But that’s as dumb as someone coming on here and saying Mitch Lewis’s knee is cactus because I did my knee once when I played local footy and it never came good.
Click to expand...
Was just interested to see what the stats were. It will have no bearing on what happens from here but does give a good guide.
I actually hope we don’t win the spoon
 
Nomore4s said:
Some stats of teams to get a wooden spoon and go on and win a premiership.

Of the 12 teams to win a spoon since 2000, only 4 have won a flag. Of those 4, 2 won multiple spoons before winning a flag.
Bulldogs 2003 to 2016 - 13 years
Richmond 2004 & 2007 to 2017, 2019, 2020 - 10 years
Melbourne 2008 & 2009 to 2021 - 12 years
West Coast 2010 to 2018 - 8 years

None of the coaches in charge when they won the spoon were the coaches in charge when they won the flag. The quickest turnaround was 8 years.
Not one team who has taken the wooden spoon since 2011 has won a flag. That is 11 completed seasons now.

Only others to have made a GF after winning a spoon since 2000.
St Kilda 2000 to 2009 & 2010 - 9 years
Freo 2001 to 2013 - 12 years
GWS 2012 & 2013 to 2019 - 6 years

The only coach to coach a spoon and GF appearance was Leon Cameron in a team that had a heap of concessions and that still took 6 years. They are also the only team that won a spoon after 2011 to make a GF.

History is against a quick rebuild from where we are, we are looking at least 6-8 years from here. That’s if everything goes right. And history is against Sam Mitchell being the next premiership coach of the Hawthorn footy club.

The other issue I have is the Hawks aren’t as far down the rebuild track as some supporters like to think. Our latest dynasty was built on the back of 2 generational key forward talents in Rough and Buddy, plus 2 generational leaders in Mitchell and Hodge with a stack of quality mids that we then recruited around.
We currently don’t have those quality talls(DGB may eventually come good but I’m not sold), we are still yet to draft them. I personally think we are 10 years from any real success unless we get exceptionally lucky.

I personally think the Hawks will struggle for longer than most think, especially if we do end up winning the spoon. I certainly hope I’m wrong but historically it’s not looking good.
Click to expand...

Pretty interesting reading, nice input.
 
Nomore4s said:
Was just interested to see what the stats were. It will have no bearing on what happens from here but does give a good guide.
I actually hope we don’t win the spoon
Click to expand...
I think what it shows is how hard it often is, how long it often takes, and that there’s no guarantee that bottoming out works. Whether we finish 18th, 17th or 16th this year is immaterial. We are coming from a long way back.
 
It may very well be true that we do not win a flag for another 10 years. It's extremely ****ing hard to win an AFL premiership. Some supporters have had to wait 30/40/50 years to see one. There are 17 other clubs trying to do the exact same thing we are and our past success does not mean we are currently any better than any other club.

But, that also doesn't mean that we won't be successful and as fans have lots of great moments watching this rebuild unfold and see its potential. It's also worth mentioning that avenues to acquiring quality players are a lot more open now – FA is very active, salary dumps are starting to become a thing, MSD has yielded many quality AFL players, so too the pre-season supplemental pick. We've seen extremely fast turnarounds from a lot of teams recently. Accepting this data that it will take us 10+ years to make a GF again is the same as accepting the data that because we win a premiership every decade we will win one by 2029. Anything can happen, and quickly

Hopefully we don't win the spoon this year and it's all irrelevant anyway, as I would rather this team start building a winning culture than get Reid vs another fantastic player in the top 5.
 
Nomore4s said:
Some stats of teams to get a wooden spoon and go on and win a premiership.

Of the 12 teams to win a spoon since 2000, only 4 have won a flag. Of those 4, 2 won multiple spoons before winning a flag.
Bulldogs 2003 to 2016 - 13 years
Richmond 2004 & 2007 to 2017, 2019, 2020 - 10 years
Melbourne 2008 & 2009 to 2021 - 12 years
West Coast 2010 to 2018 - 8 years

None of the coaches in charge when they won the spoon were the coaches in charge when they won the flag. The quickest turnaround was 8 years.
Not one team who has taken the wooden spoon since 2011 has won a flag. That is 11 completed seasons now.

Only others to have made a GF after winning a spoon since 2000.
St Kilda 2000 to 2009 & 2010 - 9 years
Freo 2001 to 2013 - 12 years
GWS 2012 & 2013 to 2019 - 6 years

The only coach to coach a spoon and GF appearance was Leon Cameron in a team that had a heap of concessions and that still took 6 years. They are also the only team that won a spoon after 2011 to make a GF.

History is against a quick rebuild from where we are, we are looking at least 6-8 years from here. That’s if everything goes right. And history is against Sam Mitchell being the next premiership coach of the Hawthorn footy club.

The other issue I have is the Hawks aren’t as far down the rebuild track as some supporters like to think. Our latest dynasty was built on the back of 2 generational key forward talents in Rough and Buddy, plus 2 generational leaders in Mitchell and Hodge with a stack of quality mids that we then recruited around.
We currently don’t have those quality talls(DGB may eventually come good but I’m not sold), we are still yet to draft them. I personally think we are 10 years from any real success unless we get exceptionally lucky.

I personally think the Hawks will struggle for longer than most think, especially if we do end up winning the spoon. I certainly hope I’m wrong but historically it’s not looking good.
Click to expand...
Some good analysis but I disagree we are not far down the road in the rebuild. We have invested in the draft for three straight years already and moved on much of the older parts of the list. This is not to say we will rocket up the ladder but in terms of our list profile, we are on the upward curve already. Teams either crash in a heap as a mature side or were already down the bottom when they start to rebuild.

Year, average age of last placed team
2012, 21.3*, gws
2013, 21.4*, gws
2014, 24.0, st kilda
2015, 24.1, Carlton
2016, 25.0, scum
2017, 22.8, brisbane*
2018, 23.8, Carlton
2019, 23.1, gold coast*
2020, 23.9, Adelaide
2021, 23.7, north
2022, 23.7, north

Only 4 times in the past decade has the youngest team finished last. And it is one of those sides that made it to a gf from last. And brisbane have also been close to making grand finals. Only gc stands out as explicitly shit.

Hawks average age is 23.1, 23.7 in 2022, 24.4 in 2021 and 24.8 in 2020.

North went 24.6 in 2020, 23.7 in 2021, 23.7 in 2022 and are 24.1 in 2023. You can really only rebuild for about three years before your age climbs up as your young talent is retained and matures and you have few older players to shed. If it takes longer it’s usually due to large list failures in prior years or during the three year rebuild period. Some might say we have those issues but I’d suggest they are mostly resolved with the exception of kpp players. It hurts not having better ones and some depth in those roles.
 
Last edited:
CoagVex said:
Would like to see the stats for teams coming from 17th, 16th, 15th and so on to get to a GF or win it

On SM-F711B using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...
From 17th since 2000:

12 teams finished 17th from 2000-2021

5 went on to win a flag.
Melbourne 2 years later
Hawks 4 years later
Collingwood 5 years later
Richmond 7 years later
West Coast 10 years later

Interestingly enough there's much less chance of making a grand final from 16th - since 2000 only 2 teams have won a flag within 10 years of finishing 16th (WCE 4 years later and hawks 3 years later). The other 3 teams that went on to win flags later did it so much later that can't be correlated with the 16th place finish (12 years for Bulldogs, 15 for Richmond, 18 for
Melbourne).

Perhaps 17th is the sweet spot for bottoming out? 🤔

EDIT: I tried a few other ladder positions and they all come out very similarly. For example, 4th placed finish:

11 teams finished 4th from 2000-2021

5 went on to win a flag within 10 years.
Collingwood 1 year later / 8 years later
Sydney 1 year later / 6 years later
Geelong 2 years later / 3 years later
Bulldogs 6 years later
West Coast 7 years later

Geelong are the only team in the last 12 years that have won the flag after finishing 4th.

So definitely don't ever finish 4th if you want to win a flag in the next decade, the odds are definitely against it.
 
Last edited:

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Nomore4s said:
Some stats of teams to get a wooden spoon and go on and win a premiership.

Of the 12 teams to win a spoon since 2000, only 4 have won a flag. Of those 4, 2 won multiple spoons before winning a flag.
Bulldogs 2003 to 2016 - 13 years
Richmond 2004 & 2007 to 2017, 2019, 2020 - 10 years
Melbourne 2008 & 2009 to 2021 - 12 years
West Coast 2010 to 2018 - 8 years

None of the coaches in charge when they won the spoon were the coaches in charge when they won the flag. The quickest turnaround was 8 years.
Not one team who has taken the wooden spoon since 2011 has won a flag. That is 11 completed seasons now.

Only others to have made a GF after winning a spoon since 2000.
St Kilda 2000 to 2009 & 2010 - 9 years
Freo 2001 to 2013 - 12 years
GWS 2012 & 2013 to 2019 - 6 years

The only coach to coach a spoon and GF appearance was Leon Cameron in a team that had a heap of concessions and that still took 6 years. They are also the only team that won a spoon after 2011 to make a GF.

History is against a quick rebuild from where we are, we are looking at least 6-8 years from here. That’s if everything goes right. And history is against Sam Mitchell being the next premiership coach of the Hawthorn footy club.

The other issue I have is the Hawks aren’t as far down the rebuild track as some supporters like to think. Our latest dynasty was built on the back of 2 generational key forward talents in Rough and Buddy, plus 2 generational leaders in Mitchell and Hodge with a stack of quality mids that we then recruited around.
We currently don’t have those quality talls(DGB may eventually come good but I’m not sold), we are still yet to draft them. I personally think we are 10 years from any real success unless we get exceptionally lucky.

I personally think the Hawks will struggle for longer than most think, especially if we do end up winning the spoon. I certainly hope I’m wrong but historically it’s not looking good.
Click to expand...
Great analysis, I was just today pondering this exact question myself (couldn't be arsed to actually do the work though).

One thing I think is that if you do go down the rebuilding/finishing bottom to get high draft picks you can't make it work if you get just "good" top ten players.

You need to luck out and get generational type players like we did with Buddy, Rough and Hodge or Melbourne did with Gawn, Petracca and Oliver.

Also if we had of finished last in 2020 it would have been sweet FA help as that draft year looks very stinky so there is a massive element of luck in the quality of the draft year you finish last in.

Either way it's a very risky strategy to deliberately finish last as it's a hell of a long way from 18th to the finals and with more expansion teams coming it's just gonna get harder to drag yourself from the bottom.
 
All this tanking/ rebuilding criticism I find amusing.

Can someone explain how else we are to go from, one of, if not the worst list in the comp to one of the best without hitting the high end of multiple drafts.

Our last great era was founded on high end draft pick stars. Am I missing something. What else should we do?
We need better players.

We haven't been gift wrapped stars like Sydney do with their acadamy or been lucky like Geelong with father sons and Danger and Cameron wanting in. We offered better deals to Lynch and Bowes but still missed.

We tried topping up. When it didn't deliver what we hoped what were we to do. Keep topping up and keep missing the top of the draft?

Anyone who remembers Clakos first season in charge knows we have been here before. The media piled on then like they are now.

Like every club, if we do not have good enough players we won't reach the top. Doesn't matter who our coach is or what we have done in the past. We need more stars.
 
Stranglers said:
From 17th since 2000:

12 teams finished 17th from 2000-2021

5 went on to win a flag.
Melbourne 2 years later
Hawks 4 years later
Collingwood 5 years later
Richmond 7 years later
West Coast 10 years later

Interestingly enough there's much less chance of making a grand final from 16th - since 2000 only 2 teams have won a flag within 10 years of finishing 16th (WCE 4 years later and hawks 3 years later). The other 3 teams that went on to win flags later did it so much later that can't be correlated with the 16th place finish (12 years for Bulldogs, 15 for Richmond, 18 for
Melbourne).

Perhaps 17th is the sweet spot for bottoming out? 🤔

EDIT: I tried a few other ladder positions and they all come out very similarly. For example, 4th placed finish:

11 teams finished 4th from 2000-2021

5 went on to win a flag within 10 years.
Collingwood 1 year later / 8 years later
Sydney 1 year later / 6 years later
Geelong 2 years later / 3 years later
Bulldogs 6 years later
West Coast 7 years later

Geelong are the only team in the last 12 years that have won the flag after finishing 4th.

So definitely don't ever finish 4th if you want to win a flag in the next decade, the odds are definitely against it.
Click to expand...
In what year exactly did hawthorn finish 17th? 🤔
 
Stranglers said:
From 17th since 2000:

12 teams finished 17th from 2000-2021

5 went on to win a flag.
Melbourne 2 years later
Hawks 4 years later
Collingwood 5 years later
Richmond 7 years later
West Coast 10 years later

Interestingly enough there's much less chance of making a grand final from 16th - since 2000 only 2 teams have won a flag within 10 years of finishing 16th (WCE 4 years later and hawks 3 years later). The other 3 teams that went on to win flags later did it so much later that can't be correlated with the 16th place finish (12 years for Bulldogs, 15 for Richmond, 18 for
Melbourne).

Perhaps 17th is the sweet spot for bottoming out? 🤔

EDIT: I tried a few other ladder positions and they all come out very similarly. For example, 4th placed finish:

11 teams finished 4th from 2000-2021

5 went on to win a flag within 10 years.
Collingwood 1 year later / 8 years later
Sydney 1 year later / 6 years later
Geelong 2 years later / 3 years later
Bulldogs 6 years later
West Coast 7 years later

Geelong are the only team in the last 12 years that have won the flag after finishing 4th.

So definitely don't ever finish 4th if you want to win a flag in the next decade, the odds are definitely against it.
Click to expand...
We’ve never finished any lower than 15th

I think you may be confusing 2nd bottom with 17th
In 04 we finished 2nd bottom (15th) & won a flag 4 yrs later
 
Stranglers said:
From 17th since 2000:

12 teams finished 17th from 2000-2021

5 went on to win a flag.
Melbourne 2 years later
Hawks 4 years later
Collingwood 5 years later
Richmond 7 years later
West Coast 10 years later

Interestingly enough there's much less chance of making a grand final from 16th - since 2000 only 2 teams have won a flag within 10 years of finishing 16th (WCE 4 years later and hawks 3 years later). The other 3 teams that went on to win flags later did it so much later that can't be correlated with the 16th place finish (12 years for Bulldogs, 15 for Richmond, 18 for
Melbourne).

Perhaps 17th is the sweet spot for bottoming out? 🤔

EDIT: I tried a few other ladder positions and they all come out very similarly. For example, 4th placed finish:

11 teams finished 4th from 2000-2021

5 went on to win a flag within 10 years.
Collingwood 1 year later / 8 years later
Sydney 1 year later / 6 years later
Geelong 2 years later / 3 years later
Bulldogs 6 years later
West Coast 7 years later

Geelong are the only team in the last 12 years that have won the flag after finishing 4th.

So definitely don't ever finish 4th if you want to win a flag in the next decade, the odds are definitely against it.
Click to expand...
When finishing 2nd last you probably need to take into account the years before that. If 2nd last is the lowest they went it’s probably valid but Melbourne and Richmond got wooden spoons prior to those second last finishes, so you could argue they were actually on the way up.
Either way it’s an interesting study.
 
Should we discuss hawthorn?

Last spoon 1965 4 wins 14 losses just under 80%. Didn’t play final until the 6th year after that (final 4) but won the flag
Had played two grand finals for one flag in the 4 years before that.

In the 58 completed seasons since then.
11 flags no spoons. Biggest period between flags 17 bottom 4 finishes 8
 
Strapping Young Lad said:
Can I just point out one thing…?

We are yet to Win the spoon.

I never thought as a supporter base we’d be so keen to latch onto it by Round 2, but here we are.


Secondly, whatever Carlton, GWS, Melbourne or Richmond have done is irrelevant to whether Hawthorn succeed or fail.
Drafting, environment, development, coaching were all issues at different levels at all of those clubs, and Hawthorn will either succeed or fail for their very own reasons.

I know the main board trolls like to say “Carlton were s**t for over 10 years, that’s what Hawthorn will have to look forward to!” But that’s as dumb as someone coming on here and saying Mitch Lewis’s knee is cactus because I did my knee once when I played local footy and it never came good.
Click to expand...
"Hawthorn won 2 more flags after winning one, so surely everyone else can"

These historical comparisons are stupid.

Sent from my SM-G990E using Tapatalk
 
I think the discussion is more ‘ is culture killed by not winning much.’

Looking at results, it seems on year alone with low percentage -meaning frequent beltings’ - has minimal effect
 

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Stats from winning the spoon to flag since 2000

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