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The Opportunist
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For those of us who are more than recreational traders, what opportunities exist that will allow you to make huge money long term?
- A goal scorer in Soccer being changed upon review:
This is a common one and some books allow you to bet on a player scoring a goal. Often you'll see an own goal awarded when initially the goal was given to a player of an attacking team. Some people would be prepared to take a player scoring a goal at $1.01 believing they had just scored, but if there's any doubt as to whether it may have been an own goal, you can lay a player to score a goal. If upon review it's awarded an own goal, your lay bet is good and you can either trade for a profit or ride the +EV bet.
- The VAR overturning a decision:
This is probably one of the most common ones and you can often see huge fluctuations in odds. If you back your eye, you can make big money through trading in this scenario. I.e. A goal awarded but you believe it was offside. Get in quickly and lay the attacking team and trade for a profit if the VAR overturns the initial decision. This is often a low risk / high reward scenario.
- No balls in Cricket:
Another common one and extremely profitable if a wicket is taken. If you are confident the wicket stemmed from an illegal delivery, you can back the team batting whose odds to win will sky rocket from a wicket. Only for those odds to shorten significantly when a no ball is awarded.
- First Innings runs, was it a 4 or 6?
This can be profitable in the final few balls of the innings if you're trading on Betfair's 'First Innings runs' markets. Sometimes it will appear the ball cleared the rope on the full, but if you're confident it landed inside the field of play, you can back UNDERS. This sometimes occurs when a commentator incorrectly calls "six" or "four" and you simply back the opposite of what the commentator says if you are confident the commentator got it wrong.
- Scoreboard error:
This doesn't happen often, but I've seen it before. A couple of years ago, a well known Pro Cricket trader realised the scoreboard on the telecast was out by one run. The scoreboard showed 125 runs had been scored, when really there were 124 runs scored. The guy made six figures when he laid '125 runs or more' at odds of $1.01.
- AFL score review:
A common one but not as profitable unless it's late in the game. The most memorable one in recent times was last year's Elimination Final between the Lions & Tigers. Tigers supporters behind the goal cheered as Tom Lynch's ball went through, and the Tigers shortened to $1.01 for a few seconds. Those odds then increased to $1.15 after the score review awarded a behind. Being able to lay at $1.01 and back at $1.15 in that situation is huge.
- Basket reviewed during NBA timeout:
It's not uncommon for a three-point basket to be reviewed during a timeout. This can be profitable in a close game inside the final two minutes of a match. If a three-point basket is awarded but you believe the shooter's foot was on the three-point line, you may decide to lay the attacking team. Similarly, if the Ref signals a two, but you believe the shooter's foot was behind the line, you may decide to back the attacking team. This can also be hugely profitable on Betfair who offer markets on a couple of players points line. I.e. If a player's line is 26.5 pts and that player is on 24 pts with 60 seconds remaining, a three-point basket will see that player initially clear their line. As someone who monitors these markets often, you'll usually find you can lay overs at $1.01 in this situation. Upon review, that three point basket becomes two points, so the player's total goes from 27 to 26. You suddenly have a huge +EV bet.
- Successful appeals:
In the20212020 Tokyo Olympics, Team USA were disqualified in the Semi Final of the 4x400m Mixed Relay. There were back odds available of $1,000 that Team USA would win the Gold Medal. Team USA appealed the decision, and that appeal was successful. Prior to the final, Team USA traded at $3. A back price of $1,000 and a lay price of $3... Massive! Team USA ended up with a bronze medal.
- Disqualification:
The opposite of the previous example, a team winning a gold medal only to be disqualified. One of the most well known events of this occurring (video below) is Australia winning gold in the women's 4x200m final at the 2001 World Swimming championships. Prior to all competitors finishing, the Australian team jumped in the water to celebrate their victory. This is in breach of the rules. You'd have been able to lay Australia at $1.01 if you were privy to the rules and realised what had occurred before the result became official.
- Commentator error:
There have been numerous occasions where a Horse Racing commentator incorrectly announces the winner of a race. Terry Bailey (video below) is an example of this. He incorrectly called the winner of a race at Geelong, with the actual winner trading at $1,000 in play on Betfair. This isn't the only time Bailey has had a shocker and he is notorious for it.
- Horse galloping in the score up (Harness Racing):
Another one that occasionally happens, and you can make some serious coin if this happens to the favourite. Some books allow you to back the field in 'Favourite v Field' markets and they allow you to do this during the score up as the race hasn't officially commenced until the gates open. Being able to back the field in this situation is extremely profitable.
