Resource The list your Ken Hinkley Era Stats Thread

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Bored, I went back and ran over our W/L record since 2013. I'm not able to catch the live drivetime shows but those who call up/email around might need in some of these Kern stats.

Results v opposition (based on end of H&A finishing position)

All H&AWLTW%
Record v TOP 4
15​
42​
57​
26%
Record v TOP 4 (PA Top 4)
5​
8​
13​
38%
Record v Top 5-8
25​
28​
53​
47%
Record v Top 5-8 (PA Top 4)
13​
5​
18​
72%​
Record v Top 8
40​
70​
110​
36%
Record v Top 8 (PA Top 4)
18​
13​
31​
58%​
Record v Bottom 10
119​
30​
149​
80%​
Record v Bottom 10 (PA Top 4)
46​
8​
54​
85%​

  • We win 4/5 games vs teams that don't make finals.
  • We win 3/5 vs Top 8 teams in years that we finished top 4.
  • We have a crap record against Top 4 teams. I guess this isn't a surprise but we're 2/5 when we're in the top 5 as well.

Adelaide OvalWLTW%
Record v TOP 4
12​
17​
29​
41%
Record v TOP 4 (PA Top 4)
4​
3​
7​
57%​
Record v Top 5-8
10​
17​
27​
37%
Record v Top 5-8 (PA Top 4)
6​
4​
10​
60%​
Record v Top 8
22​
34​
56​
39%
Record v Top 8 (PA Top 4)
10​
7​
17​
59%​
Record v Bottom 10
60​
12​
72​
83%​
Record v Bottom 10 (PA Top 4)
23​
4​
27​
85%​

  • At home, we're about even vs top 4 depending on how we travel.
  • pretty poor vs top 8 in general unless we're travelling well.
  • Dominate the bottom 10.

Results v opposition (based on ladder @ start of the round)

So these are based on where our opposition sits when we play them. And how we fare when we sit above/below a team.

All H&AWLTW%
Record v TOP 4
20​
35​
55​
36%
Record v TOP 4 (PA Higher)
5​
5​
10​
50%​
Record v Top 4 (PA Lower)
15​
30​
45​
33%
Record v Top 5-8
24​
22​
46​
52%​
Record v Top 5-8 (PA Higher)
15​
12​
27​
56%​
Record v Top 5-8 (PA Lower)
9​
10​
19​
47%
Record v Top 8
44​
57​
101​
44%
Record v Top 8 (PA Higher)
20​
17​
37​
54%​
Record v Top 8 (PA Lower)
24​
40​
64​
38%
Record v Bottom 10
106​
41​
147​
72%​
Record v Bottom 10 (PA Higher)
98​
36​
134​
73%​
Record v Bottom 10 (PA lower)
7​
5​
12​
58%​

  • We lose x2 as many games when we sit lower than top 4 oppo and overall not great vs teams sitting top 4.
  • About even vs the bottom half of the 8.

Adelaide OvalWLTW%
Record v TOP 4
12​
18​
30​
40%
Record v TOP 4 (PA Higher)
3​
2​
5​
60%​
Record v Top 4 (PA Lower)
9​
16​
25​
36%
Record v Top 5-8
10​
11​
21​
48%
Record v Top 5-8 (PA Higher)
6​
6​
12​
50%​
Record v Top 5-8 (PA Lower)
4​
5​
9​
44%
Record v Top 8
22​
29​
51​
43%
Record v Top 8 (PA Higher)
9​
8​
17​
53%​
Record v Top 8 (PA Lower)
13​
21​
34​
38%
Record v Bottom 10
57​
17​
74​
77%​
Record v Bottom 10 (PA Higher)
52​
13​
65​
80%​
Record v Bottom 10 (PA lower)
5​
4​
9​
56%​

-
This to me is the most damning stat. If our oppo is in the 8 we're basically a toss up to win the game. Anyone who reckons we have a genuine home advantage during the season is kidding themselves unless we're playing a team in the bottom 10 that we're genuinely better than.

Dunno who needs these stats, but here they are.
 
Bored, I went back and ran over our W/L record since 2013. I'm not able to catch the live drivetime shows but those who call up/email around might need in some of these Kern stats.

Results v opposition (based on end of H&A finishing position)

All H&AWLTW%
Record v TOP 4
15​
42​
57​
26%
Record v TOP 4 (PA Top 4)
5​
8​
13​
38%
Record v Top 5-8
25​
28​
53​
47%
Record v Top 5-8 (PA Top 4)
13​
5​
18​
72%​
Record v Top 8
40​
70​
110​
36%
Record v Top 8 (PA Top 4)
18​
13​
31​
58%​
Record v Bottom 10
119​
30​
149​
80%​
Record v Bottom 10 (PA Top 4)
46​
8​
54​
85%​

  • We win 4/5 games vs teams that don't make finals.
  • We win 3/5 vs Top 8 teams in years that we finished top 4.
  • We have a crap record against Top 4 teams. I guess this isn't a surprise but we're 2/5 when we're in the top 5 as well.

Adelaide OvalWLTW%
Record v TOP 4
12​
17​
29​
41%
Record v TOP 4 (PA Top 4)
4​
3​
7​
57%​
Record v Top 5-8
10​
17​
27​
37%
Record v Top 5-8 (PA Top 4)
6​
4​
10​
60%​
Record v Top 8
22​
34​
56​
39%
Record v Top 8 (PA Top 4)
10​
7​
17​
59%​
Record v Bottom 10
60​
12​
72​
83%​
Record v Bottom 10 (PA Top 4)
23​
4​
27​
85%​

  • At home, we're about even vs top 4 depending on how we travel.
  • pretty poor vs top 8 in general unless we're travelling well.
  • Dominate the bottom 10.

Results v opposition (based on ladder @ start of the round)

So these are based on where our opposition sits when we play them. And how we fare when we sit above/below a team.

All H&AWLTW%
Record v TOP 4
20​
35​
55​
36%
Record v TOP 4 (PA Higher)
5​
5​
10​
50%​
Record v Top 4 (PA Lower)
15​
30​
45​
33%
Record v Top 5-8
24​
22​
46​
52%​
Record v Top 5-8 (PA Higher)
15​
12​
27​
56%​
Record v Top 5-8 (PA Lower)
9​
10​
19​
47%
Record v Top 8
44​
57​
101​
44%
Record v Top 8 (PA Higher)
20​
17​
37​
54%​
Record v Top 8 (PA Lower)
24​
40​
64​
38%
Record v Bottom 10
106​
41​
147​
72%​
Record v Bottom 10 (PA Higher)
98​
36​
134​
73%​
Record v Bottom 10 (PA lower)
7​
5​
12​
58%​

  • We lose x2 as many games when we sit lower than top 4 oppo and overall not great vs teams sitting top 4.
  • About even vs the bottom half of the 8.

Adelaide OvalWLTW%
Record v TOP 4
12​
18​
30​
40%
Record v TOP 4 (PA Higher)
3​
2​
5​
60%​
Record v Top 4 (PA Lower)
9​
16​
25​
36%
Record v Top 5-8
10​
11​
21​
48%
Record v Top 5-8 (PA Higher)
6​
6​
12​
50%​
Record v Top 5-8 (PA Lower)
4​
5​
9​
44%
Record v Top 8
22​
29​
51​
43%
Record v Top 8 (PA Higher)
9​
8​
17​
53%​
Record v Top 8 (PA Lower)
13​
21​
34​
38%
Record v Bottom 10
57​
17​
74​
77%​
Record v Bottom 10 (PA Higher)
52​
13​
65​
80%​
Record v Bottom 10 (PA lower)
5​
4​
9​
56%​

-
This to me is the most damning stat. If our oppo is in the 8 we're basically a toss up to win the game. Anyone who reckons we have a genuine home advantage during the season is kidding themselves unless we're playing a team in the bottom 10 that we're genuinely better than.

Dunno who needs these stats, but here they are.

Playing the devil's advocate, and with only a cursory glance at the stats, wouldn't this statistical trend be about what you'd expect for the majority of teams over that time period?

Maybe Geelong and Hawthorn would be outliers at the top end, and Gold Coast etc at the bottom end. My hunch is that it would be a bell curve and we're at the top of the hill.
 

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Playing the devil's advocate, and with only a cursory glance at the stats, wouldn't this statistical trend be about what you'd expect for the majority of teams over that time period?

Maybe Geelong and Hawthorn would be outliers at the top end, and Gold Coast etc at the bottom end. My hunch is that it would be a bell curve and we're at the top of the hill.

I have the ladder 2013-2024 v. Top-4. We can compare Port against the rest.

But I will get them tomorrow morning. Now, I’m going to sleep. 🙂
 
- This to me is the most damning stat. If our oppo is in the 8 we're basically a toss up to win the game. Anyone who reckons we have a genuine home advantage during the season is kidding themselves unless we're playing a team in the bottom 10 that we're genuinely better than.

While the media double down on the popular mythology that beating Port at Adelaide Oval is the hardest task in footy, and every year a premier is asked, “when did you know you were primed to win it all?”

“When we beat Port over there”.

Good omen for Brisbane.
 
Playing the devil's advocate, and with only a cursory glance at the stats, wouldn't this statistical trend be about what you'd expect for the majority of teams over that time period?

Maybe Geelong and Hawthorn would be outliers at the top end, and Gold Coast etc at the bottom end. My hunch is that it would be a bell curve and we're at the top of the hill.
Yeah that thought occured to me as well. For me it's the stats at AO that really show up where we let ourselves down during H&A
 
Ladder
Season: MR - Finals

2013: 7th - 5th (+2)
2014: 5th - 3rd (+2)
2015: 9th
2016: 10th
2017: 5th - 7th (-2)
2018: 10th
2019: 10th
2020: 1st - 3rd (-2)
2021: 2nd - 3rd (-1)
2022: 11th
2023: 3rd - 5th (-2)
2024: 2nd - 4th (-2)

Hinkley’s gotten a Gold Pass for Life because of two good seasons. It’s unbelievable!

Four times, he has put himself in a position to fight for the flag. He failed to reach the GF in all of them, being eliminated at home in 3 of those times.
 
Ladder
Season: MR - Finals

2013: 7th - 5th (+2)
2014: 5th - 3rd (+2)
2015: 9th
2016: 10th
2017: 5th - 7th (-2)
2018: 10th
2019: 10th
2020: 1st - 3rd (-2)
2021: 2nd - 3rd (-1)
2022: 11th
2023: 3rd - 5th (-2)
2024: 2nd - 4th (-2)

Hinkley’s gotten a Gold Pass for Life because of two good seasons. It’s unbelievable!

Four times, he has put himself in a position to fight for the flag. He failed to reach the GF in all of them, being eliminated at home in 3 of those times.
6xtop5 end of season finishes. Not once greater than. 3rd. Sad.

The stat someone posted the other day of us having played the 2nd most Prelims since we entered the comp, for 1 flag and 2 GFs was stark.

2002, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2014, 2020, 2021, 2024.

That's a lot of opportunities. Besides the Hinkley era, our club overall has been a huge disappointment on the big stage.
 
6xtop5 end of season finishes. Not once greater than. 3rd. Sad.

The stat someone posted the other day of us having played the 2nd most Prelims since we entered the comp, for 1 flag and 2 GFs was stark.

2002, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2014, 2020, 2021, 2024.

That's a lot of opportunities. Besides the Hinkley era, our club overall has been a huge disappointment on the big stage.

We’ve made a proper transition into the AFL. “This is not the SANFL anymore” is b*llsh*t.

Our problem in the AFL has been Finals.

We only did well in 2004, 2013, and 2014.

We wasted 3 of our 4 Minor Premierships (2002/03/20).

We went out in straight sets in 2001 and 2023.

In 2005, 2007, 2021, and 2024 we got humiliated at some stage.

Finally, there’s also the disappointing home EF loss in 2017.

Have I missed something?
 
This is not the SANFL anymore”

That’s what’s so sickeningly hilarious about it.

Had we actually won the finals we were raging favourites for we’d have 3? 4? 5? premierships since joining the AFL.

You’d think we were Celtic struggling to not finish bottom of their Champions League group.
 
That’s what’s so sickeningly hilarious about it.

Had we actually won the finals we were raging favourites for we’d have 3? 4? 5? premierships since joining the AFL.

You’d think we were Celtic struggling to not finish bottom of their Champions League group.
tribey, look at my last post in the Let’s Talk Port thread.
 

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