Prediction The Run Home- The next six Games and beyond

[Scott Tracy]

Well we need something to chat about during the bye. Pretty up and down season from us so far. I'd say we've looked pretty consistent since the Richmond win.

Theres no secret we probably have one of, if not the most hardest run home out of all teams this year. Specifically the next 6 games. You'd expect the next 6 will defy where we finish on the ladder.

We play four teams (Three being interstate) who as I write this are all currently in the top 5.

The next 6 games:

North
Port (Away)
Carlton
Geelong (Away)
Sydney (Away)
Melbourne

North is the only team there that you would be pretty confident about. We should be confident against Melbourne who look terrible at the moment but the way things have shaped out in the past three years, you can't be confident against them.

Unless theres an Injury surge for Sydney, can't see us beating them up there. Even with a full strength team.
Reckon Carlton will be too hard also. Their Forward line is simply too good against our defence. We would have to be very switched on to win that one

Geelong and Port are the big ones, both haven't looked too comfortable at home in recent weeks. We would have to upset one of them if we want to make the eight you would think.

But who knows what we can do with a full team back, still worried about our backline. We love a fairytale though!

3-3 is probably a win in my books. How do you think we approach the next 6 games?

 

[iambrilliant]

I reckon we beat north and Melbourne and maybe Carlton

 

[Testekill]

I'm split between 3-3 and 4-2.

Geelong are the team that we can just never beat so I don't think I'd back us even if we had a clear advantage. Port are unreliable but I'd be much more comfortable if it was at Marvel instead of SA. Sydney have looked really good this year but we proved that we could match it with them even with half of the bench out for half the game or more.

Melbourne and North I'd back us, Carlton are fairly up and down as well so I think that we can beat them if we turn up like we did for the last month outside of the Brisbane game.

 

[Golden_6]

Playing as we did today, I think we can go 4-2. There’s some very tough games there but everyone is definitely beatable. The team is playing with extreme confidence.

I can see us winning the next 3, losing the 2 after that and then beating a defeated Melbourne (something we haven’t done in a long time). We’ll probably be favourites in only 2 games.

 

[TiAn_]

We need to beat North, Melbourne and Port at minimum to play finals. If we can also knock over one of Carlton, Sydney or Geelong then our destiny is in our own hands.

 

[The Inbetweener]

No doubt the Fremantle win keeps the season alive, but there is still plenty of work to do if we want to play finals.

We can afford 3 more losses from the below:

Games we’ll start outsiders:
Sydney (away)
Geelong (away)
Port (away)
Carlton

50/50
GWS (home)

Games we’ll likely start favourites
Melbourne (home)
Adelaide (away)
North Melbourne x 2

I feel like we can beat Port away, and Geelong have dropped some at home, but it’s hard to have any confidence down there. We will be favs vs Melbourne and Adelaide, but who knows how they will be playing at the time.

All remaining games are winnable, really excluding Sydney at the SCG, but it will take our best most weeks to get it done.

Do we have another 6 wins from the above games?

 

[ScragCity]

I think we'll win between 3-6 games of those last 9. Who knows with this team. Most of those teams are higher than us on the ladder for a reason. At our very best we can beat anyone but we've never been able to sustain our best for more than 2 or 3 weeks under Bevo.

 

[Dazb86]

Really hard to tell with this team.

 

[JTCWBFC]

Just win em all

 

[Next Waiting]

No doubt the Fremantle win keeps the season alive, but there is still plenty of work to do if we want to play finals.

We can afford 3 more losses from the below:

Games we’ll start outsiders:
Sydney (away)
Geelong (away)
Port (away)
Carlton

50/50
GWS (home)

Games we’ll likely start favourites
Melbourne (home)
Adelaide (away)
North Melbourne x 2

I feel like we can beat Port away, and Geelong have dropped some at home, but it’s hard to have any confidence down there. We will be favs vs Melbourne and Adelaide, but who knows how they will be playing at the time.

All remaining games are winnable, really excluding Sydney at the SCG, but it will take our best most weeks to get it done.

Do we have another 6 wins from the above games?

My ladder predictor says 14 wins are required to make the 8 this year. 13 wins and you miss out.

On that basis, we have to win 7 of our last 9 games and beat at least 4 of Sydney, Geelong, Port, Carlton, GWS and Melbourne.

With a full strength midfield and forward line, I give us a decent chance of doing just that ... and possibly better.

 

[maddog37]

Sense of deja vu here.

 

[Sentinel]

For a relatively objective and unbiased view, the bookies have us at about $2.25 right now to make finals, which puts it a little below 50%

 

[my plums]

Six wins isn’t even a guaranteed place. 14 total will get us in for sure. Gonna be a tight run home death riding teams like the bombers and the dees.

 

[Doggy]

Won't lose another game for the entire year

 

[House_of_Dahl]

I think we need 4-2, not sure 3-3 gets us there.

Mind you I'd effin love to win it from 8th, especially against Sydney in the grandfinal feeling like they are the deserving ones that are entitled to it. We can knock off GWS in an away prelim too please

 

[Next Waiting]

As I may have already suggested, I'm looking forward to the gnashing of teeth and complaints that we were favoured by getting the bye at Round 15 if we come out blazing in the back half and storm into finals.

 

[DogDays]

I’m going all in on 6 wins… North we should do, Port are mentally weak, Carlton believe their own hype, Sydney got lucky last time with our injuries, Geelong deserve a pantsing and Melbourne - meh no Petracca…

Bont to take the Brownlow home.


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[my plums]

I’m going all in on 6 wins… North we should do, Port are mentally weak, Carlton believe their own hype, Sydney got lucky last time with our injuries, Geelong deserve a pantsing and Melbourne - meh no Petracca…

Bont to take the Brownlow home.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bont to get 18 votes in those six games

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Geez it's going to be depressing if we just miss finals. Seeing how we can play this last month you just know we could go far if we get the shot.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

As I said in another thread I don’t have much confidence

Bye
North (Win)
Port Away (L)
Blues (L)
Cats Away (?)
Swans Away (L)
Dees (L)
Crows away (?)
North (Win)
Giants Ballarat (?)

 

[Dazb86]

We'd need to plan for the Geelong game.

Tagging Stewart is an absolute priority.

 

[ScragCity]

For a relatively objective and unbiased view, the bookies have us at about $2.25 right now to make finals, which puts it a little below 50%

And as we know, the betting market have significantly over rated us over the last couple of seasons

 

[olimauldon]

Getting Darcy back after the bye will really stretch Norths defence. They don't have the numbers or quality to go with JUH, Darcy and Lobb (or Naughton if he's back)

 

[X_box_X]

NM in rare form. That'll be right, just before we play them.

 

[Anja_Nees]

NM in rare form. That'll be right, just before we play them.

Timing is a big thing this year. We got Essendon, Hawthorn and Brisbane at the wrong time but got Richmond, Collingwood, St Kilda and WC at the right time.

North will be encouraged by breaking their duck but if we don’t brutalise them twice we shouldn’t be worried about making finals. They are still the worst side in it.