Prediction The Run Home- The next six Games and beyond

[threenewpadlocks]

Next three games are massive. Its pointless to do in depth predictions as this season is a box of chocolates. Every chance we beat Geelong and Sydney but then loose to Crows at this rate.

The thing that is for sure though is that the eight point games against Giants and Melbourne are massive. Especially considering we lost to Port. You'd think we will have to win both of those if we wanna make it.

If we can somehow pinch a win against either Geelong or Sydney that would be huge

There is a small but not negligible chance that provided we beat both Melbourne and GWS, (and win one other game) that 12 wins is enough, because locking in those losses for those two teams it makes it that much more likely that they both finish on also on exactly 12 wins, other results means that there's only 0 or 1 (finishing 7th) teams on exactly 13 wins, and percentage helps us sneak into 8th (while we may go through with only 12 wins with a loss to those two teams, the chances are virtually nil, as it requires both GWS and Melbourne to lose multiple games they shouldn't lose). The chance of this happening is probably over 2%, which is not insignificant.

It's despite the difficult draw and the Port loss being a key 8-pointer the betting odds are not so down on us - the bookies can run simulations on the season and this 12-win scenario does happen a few times.

AFL Simulation Results

www.wheeloratings.com

Consider how GWS are 51.9% chance to make finals, we are a 48.3% chance, and Melbourne a 45.7% chance. But we're a much greater chance to finish exactly 8th than both teams (12.4% vs. 11.6% and 10.%), which is interesting.

 

[fargy]

To use an overused cliche, one week at a time. So many games each week that are having a big impact on ladder position.
This week:
Bombers should win, but the Crows are not without a chance.
Imagine the Giants beat the Suns.
Saints Eagles is a team that can’t kick goals vs a team that can’t stop goals. Doesn’t matter in the scheme of the year.
Hawks Pies is huge, if the Pies lose I can’t see them making it.
Cats Dogs, do we stay in the outside pack or move up into the finals pack.
Port should win, and most likely will win very well. I’d love for the Tigers to kick a few early ones to see if Port implode like they can.
Lions Swans are probably the two best in at the moment. I think the Lions form is tapering a bit.
Dockers Demons, it seems like a couple of weeks ago the Dockers spanked them. Can’t see the Dees winning over there.
Blues should beat Norf comfortably given they’ve lost a couple in a row. Hopefully Norf don’t fall in a heap this week after being spanked.

It won’t happen, but to show how close this season is:
Crows beat the Bombers
Gold Coast beat the Giants
Saints Eagles who cares
Hawks Pies either way
Dogs beat the Cats
Tigers beat Port
Swans beat the Lions
Dees beat the Dockers
Norf beat Carltion

Ladder:
Swans 60
Carlton 44
Cats 44
Dees 44
Lions 42
Freo 42
Bombers 42
Dogs 40
Giants 40
Port 40
Gold Coast 40
Pies/Hawks 40
Pies/Hawks 36

That would leave 4 points between 2nd and 12th.

 

[CarnTheScray]

We will either go undefeated for the rest of the home and away season or play like busted arses.

None of this losing to Geelong and Sydney and beating everyone else crap.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Schroedinger's finals. Somehow realistic to both miss finals and make top 4 at the same time

 

[Golden_6]

What a strange strange ladder. Playing some magnificent footy yet still sit outside the 8. One more win would have us sitting second on the ladder.

3-2 probably gets us into finals and 4-1 gives us a solid chance at top 4.

 

[Doggy]

What a strange strange ladder. Playing some magnificent footy yet still sit outside the 8. One more win would have us sitting second on the ladder.

3-2 probably gets us into finals and 4-1 gives us a solid chance at top 4.

I'd back the last 4. None will be easy though

 

[Doggy]

Just saw Gawn likely to be back next round

 

[X_box_X]

One week at a time.

Trying to mount a case of beating Sydney at the SCG.

1. 2015 and 2016 vibes.

2. Horse has never beaten Bevo at the SCG during the day.

3. We should have beaten them at the SCG last year albeit for the umpires favouring them something shocking. Fact.

4. Most here would agree that we probably beat Sydney two months ago if we didn't cop two early injuries.

5. Swans have shown they can be vulnerable.. This was obviously evident when we took charge of them in the final qtr two months ago, but they have lost to Freo and Saints, two teams we smashed. They also looked like losers against Geelong and Adelaide before turning it on in the fourth qtr.

 

[Doggy]

One week at a time.

Trying to mount a case of beating Sydney at the SCG.

1. 2015 and 2016 vibes.

2. Horse has never beaten Bevo at the SCG during the day.

3. We should have beaten them at the SCG last year albeit for the umpires favouring them something shocking. Fact.

4. Most here would agree that we probably beat Sydney two months ago if we didn't cop two early injuries.

5. Swans have shown they can be vulnerable.. This was obviously evident when we took charge of them in the final qtr two months ago, but they have lost to Freo and Saints, two teams we smashed. They also looked like losers against Geelong and Adelaide before turning it on in the fourth qtr.

Lost 3 players last time we played them. Scott, Naughton and Richards. Warner only got going when Richards was taken out

 

[X_box_X]

Lost 3 players last time we played them. Scott, Naughton and Richards. Warner only got going when Richards was taken out

It sounds weird saying this about a loss, but I was proud of our efforts against them earlier in the year... Simply because I know we would have beaten them if we didn't lose those three players (two in the first qtr).

 

[BallaratBulldog]

I see a fourth finish from here (lose sydney, win all others) but that assumes consistency of preformance

 

[ScragCity]

Just win the next 5 in a row and finish top four then win the flag.

 

[oneoffpost]

Any of our stats geniuses able to work out whether a team has beaten 1st, 2nd, 3rd three weeks in a row this late in the season from outside the top 8. My guess never happened

 

[JohnnySteel]

Injuries will be massive in the run home. If we make finals and get Jones, JJ and Harmes back firing and we don’t pick up anymore injuries than we are a serious threat for the flag.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[TiAn_]

We need 14 wins to guarantee finals. 13 is still a strong chance to miss, given some other teams around us have drawn games, rendering percentage irrelevant in certain scenarios.

 

[Scott Tracy]

We're 7-3 since that Hawthorn Loss.
Could've very well won that Sydney game too. Port and Brisbane we were out-coached/didn't show up.

Still need to be switched on. Sydney next week will be hard, Melbourne have had the better over us since 21, Crows looking like they'll finish the season strongly, North have become far more competitive too and Giants and Ballarat is anyones guess.

 

[strikeymate]

Not a Dogs supporter ... North :-( actually, but have a soft spot for the Doggies.
Well they beat Geelong, which keeps the hope of finals alive, but this year 12 wins are not enough. Even 13 wins may not be enough for some with low percentage like Hawk, Melb, and Pies, but the Dogs have a high % which will give them the edge IF THEY WIN 3 of the next 5.
Of course you will beat North, and I hope you thrash us to lower out percent and put us in line for another 1st draft pick. And I Think you will beat Melbourne also, but which is the next to make it 3 wins?
Sydny away... NO
Crows away... NO
GWS home....Maybe.
It would be good to seal it before the last game, but I thing that game against GWS for the last game will be a cracker, because they also are in the same boat as you. I feel whoever wins that game will finish 8th.

 

[BEaston]

Would actually be hilarious and very on point for a Bevo team if we finally actually made the top 4 in a season where most people wanted the coach sacked for a large portion of it.

 

[flamethrower]

Would actually be hilarious and very on point for a Bevo team if we finally actually made the top 4 in a season where most people wanted the coach sacked for a large portion of it.

And then went win, win, win, flag.

It would be life imitating art, as it would be a carbon copy of what happened to Collingwood in the movie The Club.

 

[olimauldon]

So win 3 of our last 5 and we should be good ? Win 2 and we are still a chance ?

 

[Bulldog Brent]

So win 3 of our last 5 and we should be good ? Win 2 and we are still a chance ?

Put it this way. We’re 10-8 with a strong percentage and still sitting outside the 8.

I can’t see how going 2-3 will lift us into the 8.

3-2 at the absolute minimum. 4-1 will lock us in.

We can afford to lose one but the absolute non negotiables are the Dees and GWS matches as they are eight pointers.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

The best thing about how we are playing is that we can cope with outs. It used to be over if any of Libba, Naughts, Jones out. Even Bont was good but we weren't reliant on him. VFL team being 2nd showing great depth. Jones to come back plus trying to get players like Garcia, JOD, Daniel, Buss in. Can be more important late season

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Do not like the 5 day break before the dees games need in a win this week for insurance.

 

[grassman75]

Any of our stats geniuses able to work out whether a team has beaten 1st, 2nd, 3rd three weeks in a row this late in the season from outside the top 8. My guess never happened

Sounds like a sir swamp thing question

 

[grassman75]

Would actually be hilarious and very on point for a Bevo team if we finally actually made the top 4 in a season where most people wanted the coach sacked for a large portion of it.

I’m not most people, but it would show how little you commoners know

#PeakBevo be trending