Autopsy The Stats Don’t Lie: VicBIAS By The Numbers - An Empirical Analysis

[Caligo]

To add another one into the mix, Hawthorn had the best zone for some decades, that created a culture of success at the club which persisted right through the draft era.

Geelong do well out of f/s (have never had a NGA draftee of any note AFAIK) because they are a regional club and country folk tend to have kids earlier and more often. But a few decades back nobody wanted to live in Geelong, now it is popular (not Geelong but the coast).

Cats did get a better deal on Ablett than the Hawks on Franklin, but ours went to a new club not an established one. in any event those picks did very little for Geelong, who did Hawthorn draft with that pick 19?

Agree completely. All swings and roundabouts.

I don't believe we used pick 19 at all. I think we sent it and savage to St kilda for mcevoy (from memory).

 

[The 747]

Agree completely. All swings and roundabouts.

I don't believe we used pick 19 at all. I think we sent it and savage to St kilda for mcevoy (from memory).

We got Josh Caddy and Billie Smedts so if you got 50% of McEvoy I think you came out on top.

Anyway, Vic clubs losing Hall of Fame players to interstate clubs for little compensation is obviously #VICBIAS!

 

[Caligo]

We got Josh Caddy and Billie Smedts so if you got 50% of McEvoy I think you came out on top.

Anyway, Vic clubs losing Hall of Fame players to interstate clubs for little compensation is obviously #VICBIAS!

I think Caddy was underrated. But even so I still agree with you. We were very fortunate to turn a player surplus to requirements and pick 19 into a highly competent (without being great) ruckman for the best part of a decade.

 

[WilloTree]

Hawthorn have never gotten a single 1st round father son. Ever.

You are talking about the wrong club if you want to say we have benefited from F/S, NGA or anything else (except PP. We did get two elite PP almost 20 years ago).

I am just absolutely boggled you would bring up NGA as a Fremantle supporter.

In the olden days father-son's were paid with using a 3rd Rounder.

My god man - do some research.

 

[Caligo]

In the olden days father-son's were paid with using a 3rd Rounder.

My god man - do some research.

View attachment 1786027

That is true. But unlike Hawkins (who was a consensus pick 1) neither Kennedy nor Tuck had even the slightest bit of interest from other clubs.

Tuck was lucky to be drafted at all.

 

[Mattrox]

Until each decision is looked at and information is collated from that, no assumptions can be made.
The perceived bias of home teams may also be due to the home team going in for the ball harder.

79% one way? It is impossible that the home team gets the rub of the green that often when a large differential occurred. What you are positing is that: The non Victornian away team in Victoria plays from behind 79% of the time, but the Victorian team away interstate only plays from behind 56% of the time???

It is a massive statistical anomoly which takes into account years data and is not a mirco analysis based on single games.



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[Mattrox]

Completely flawed! How does he land on 56% as a game of 'large differential' - in that case, say 40 free kicks are given, that is a 22-18 free kick count. Hardly excessive and more likely just variance. More likely that number's been plucked out to make the outcome look good. He calls out a 15-5 free kick count as excessive, that's a 75/25% split.

His percentage for the second column, Home Non-VIC vs Away VIC is wrong, 102 vs 60 is 63%. Therefore his point on it better for a VIC team to be playing interstate than a neutral home game is wrong.

Hardly conclusive.

Not 56% of free kicks. 56% more free kicks.

If a team gets 18 free kicks, then 56% more is 10+18, so a differential of 28 to 18.


A 40 freekick game is closer to 24 - 16.

56% more is arbitrary, but it's the same for all the categories. If there were no bias the amount of times it happens would be about the same in each category.

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[Mattrox]

I can’t be bothered listening to the whole lot, but I do know Richmond has been bottom of the free kick differential ladder from 2017-2023. So if Vic bias exists it’s ‘Vic bias’ minus Richmond.

FWIW, Adelaide v Richmond R5 in 2022 was 33-13 free kicks in Adelaide’s favour. Not a single media person or Crows supporter batted an eyelid.

And aren’t I correct in saying the biggest discrepancy for free kick differential in home games is the Eagles?



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What you are doing is cherry picking individual games. The video is not saying lopsided free kick games should never happen. It's saying lopsided free kick games should happen at similar rates no matter home or away.

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[The 747]

Not 56% of free kicks. 56% more free kicks.

If a team gets 18 free kicks, then 56% more is 10+18, so a differential of 28 to 18.


A 40 freekick game is closer to 24 - 16.

56% more is arbitrary, but it's the same for all the categories. If there were no bias the amount of times it happens would be about the same in each category.

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Not content with stats the #VICBIAS! crew are getting into numerology.

 

[The 747]

What you are doing is cherry picking individual games. The video is not saying lopsided free kick games should never happen. It's saying lopsided free kick games should happen at similar rates no matter home or away.

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That makes no logical sense, given the numbers involved here. But logic is not the point here is it?

 

[Mattrox]

Ok … be careful of ‘stats’ gurus. He’s chosen 56/44 for a very specific reason … because it provides him with the best data to support his proposition. If he chose 58/42 or 60/40 it would be vastly different.

Free kick differential is more relevant. This shows over an entire season which teams get ‘looked’ after by the umpires:

2023 as of R19:

Worst differential:

North : -51
Port: -48
Rich: -43
Adel: -32
Hawks: -31

3 x Vic teams.

Best:

Saints
Carlton
Bris
Coll
Freo

3 x Vic teams.

And if you look at 2023 currently, 4 x non-Vic teams sit in the top-6 for free kicks received: Freo, Adel, Swans, Lions.

So non-Vic teams make up less than half the comp, but take up 66% of top-6 for most free kicks. Hardly the stuff of Vic bias.

Of the bottom 5 for free kicks received, only GWS appear, along with 4 other Vic teams. So 80%
of bottom 5 are Vic teams. Hardly the stuff of Vic bias.

In 2022, the bottom 3 teams for free kick differential were:

North: -39
Saints: -42
Richmond : -69

Now let’s look at 2017-2021 differential :

Adelaide 4th with positive 156
Eagles 5th with positive 145
Lions 6th with positive 63
Port 8th with positive 11
Gold Coast 10th minus 23
Freo 11th minus 36
Sydney 15th minus 126
GWS 17th minus 219

Richmond are last with minus 368.

So over 5-years there’s approx 105 games inc 2020. So we are taking minus 2 for GWS as the worst, and minus 1 free kick or better for every other non-Vic team.

So if you add up all non-Vic teams with frees for and against over a 5-year period it’s almost exact parity for and against. If you add up Vic teams for and against it’s also almost exact parity.

So you can massage the numbers to get the outcome you want any way you like. But when a 5-year period is analysed, and the 8 x non-Vic teams are almost exact the same for and against, and the Vic teams are almost the exact same for and against then guess what?

There’s no bias no matter how hard you look.


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You are looking at individual teams.

He is looking at home team bias.

The Vic home vs Vic away has a the home team with an anomoly more often. But since the home team always has an anomaly no matter who the opponent it shows a bias. The bias increased when a vic vs non-vic plays in vic.


Do the same analysis and use 65% more.

Prove him wrong.

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[Mattrox]

Are all South Australians sooks or just the ones on Bigfooty??

The VFL expanded and let some interstate clubs join, and all you want to do is whinge about it. Don't like the league? Simple, go watch the SANFL.

The VFL would have gone broke without Non Victorians clubs joining. Would have bankrupt in Non Victorians had you attitude. And in hindsight, perhaps we collectively should have let it happen.

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[The 747]

You are looking at individual teams.

He is looking at home team bias.

The Vic home vs Vic away has a the home team with an anomoly more often. But since the home team always has an anomaly no matter who the opponent it shows a bias. The bias increased when a vic vs non-vic plays in vic.


Do the same analysis and use 65% more.

Prove him wrong.

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If something always has an anomaly is it really an anomaly?

 

[LoungeLizard]

The VFL would have gone broke without Non Victorians clubs joining. Would have bankrupt in Non Victorians had you attitude. And in hindsight, perhaps we collectively should have let it happen.

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Here we go again.
VFL would have gone bankrupt without non-Vics.

Well leave and let the VFL go bankrupt, simple.

I couldn't give a rats if you leave, not many in Vic would, all most of you do is cry about how hard done by y'all are, well go watch the state leagues in peace.

 

[Checksider]

Completely flawed! How does he land on 56% as a game of 'large differential' - in that case, say 40 free kicks are given, that is a 22-18 free kick count. Hardly excessive and more likely just variance. More likely that number's been plucked out to make the outcome look good. He calls out a 15-5 free kick count as excessive, that's a 75/25% split.

His percentage for the second column, Home Non-VIC vs Away VIC is wrong, 102 vs 60 is 63%. Therefore his point on it better for a VIC team to be playing interstate than a neutral home game is wrong.

Hardly conclusive.

You don’t math so good.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

79% one way? It is impossible that the home team gets the rub of the green that often when a large differential occurred. What you are positing is that: The non Victornian away team in Victoria plays from behind 79% of the time, but the Victorian team away interstate only plays from behind 56% of the time???

It is a massive statistical anomoly which takes into account years data and is not a mirco analysis based on single games.



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It's not 79%. Where did u get that?

 

[RUNVS]

To add another one into the mix, Hawthorn had the best zone for some decades, that created a culture of success at the club which persisted right through the draft era.

Geelong do well out of f/s (have never had a NGA draftee of any note AFAIK) because they are a regional club and country folk tend to have kids earlier and more often. But a few decades back nobody wanted to live in Geelong, now it is popular (not Geelong but the coast).

Cats did get a better deal on Ablett than the Hawks on Franklin, but ours went to a new club not an established one. in any event those picks did very little for Geelong, who did Hawthorn draft with that pick 19?

Geelong also get a tonne of players moving back to Geelong on the cheap which has to help.

It has been a decade since Sydney managed to convince even a best 22 player at another club to come to the Swans.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Geelong also get a tonne of players moving back to Geelong on the cheap which has to help.

It has been a decade since Sydney managed to convince even a best 22 player at another club to come to the Swans.

Mommy why have I got no friends, why won't they come to my party.

 

[RUNVS]

Mommy why have I got no friends, why won't they come to my party.

Have you considered that maybe you have no friends because you have a poor grasp of the English language?

 

[The 747]

Geelong also get a tonne of players moving back to Geelong on the cheap which has to help.

It has been a decade since Sydney managed to convince even a best 22 player at another club to come to the Swans.

Geelong do well now with players wanting to live in a regional area. They did not do well a while ago when nobody wanted to live in a regional area, was my point.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Have you considered that maybe you have no friends because you have a poor grasp of the English language?

Nah it's most likely because I laugh at sooks like you.

Players don't like Sydney, Vic bias, i've heard it all now.

 

[Burtman]

2012 Prelim against the Hawks was a complete robbery. We played badly in the 2017 Grand Final, but were never given a chance to anyway - The umpiring in that first half was shocking.

Anytime we get anywhere near a flag the umpiring makes sure we have one arm tied behind our back.

Yeah had nothing to do with the 38-64 inside 50’s or the 32-22 scoring shots. Those 2 extra frees really got us going….. you were lucky not to get done by 10 goals

 

[RUNVS]

Nah it's most likely because I laugh at sooks like you.

Players don't like Sydney, Vic bias, i've heard it all now.

Are you a teenager?

 

[LoungeLizard]

Are you a teenager?

Why are you looking for teenagers on the internet? there is a title for that.

 

[RUNVS]

Why are you looking for teenagers on the internet? there is a title for that.

Definitely a teenager. Certainly explains a few things.