Opinion The Way Forward

[smeggaz]

Wouldn't mind experimenting with

Lmac back, but ideally he becomes a genuine A-grader and has a 45+ goal season (JUH is just as inconsistent).
Amartey or McLean out, the one in plays forward + chop out ruck.
Blakey forward but gets up the ground (need someone who can take a mark and has pace). I only want two tall forwards but blakeys got pace.
Campbell forward
Heeney playing more 60/40 forward/mid to help preserve his body. His best games he roams all over the ground.
Sheldrick to the mids, with Rowbottom, and the other a rotation of mills and Warner (main), paps / jmac / Heeney / Florent (minor)

Gulden stays outside

If we can't trade in, then draft a big body mid, a fast leading power forward consistently clunks it (Josh Tracey / waterman mould) and a key defender. Ideally all ready to go round one. Need a clearance winner, front half speed, aggression and contested marking.

If Warner leaves we are likely looking at 4 first rounders (2 + 2 for Warner).

Id take stringer for a year or two - need big bodies with fire power.



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[TheMase]

Blakey 5th in AFL for metres gained
2nd rebound 50s
Eq 14th intercepts (Swans no.1)
(7th in bounces)
All Australian

And people want to move him up forward?

You don’t rob Peter to pay Paul. Nuts.

 

[Olian]

If you look back at the ‘12 grand final. What stands out is that we had players willing to crash into packs and win the ball through contested possession. Big always pretty but competitive.

Yesterday like ‘22 we showed no physicality. The norm smith medalist was a 20 year old coming back from an ACL. He showed more fight for the ball. The midfield was embarrassing.

We have some very good players in their positions but as a collective on grand final day we resemble an Aus Kick team.

Longmire should walk away the McDonald inclusion was poor after Reid in ‘22. He’s shown management wise to be poor.

We need to draft the next Josh Kennedy.

 

[melbournehammer]

LONG POST INCOMING

I didn't do much commenting yesterday as I wanted to sleep it off and hopefully be a bit more measured in my thoughts.

Watching yesterday I was reminded of something my junior coach used to always say after a loss: You get the team you coach. I feel like Horse & co yesterday got the team they coached this season and even the last few seasons. It would've been shocking but surely none of it surprising to them.

I think it applies to both micro tactics and elements of the game plan, as well as the more overriding direction of the team.

- Our lack of presence at ground level inside 50 was glaring all day. Just five tackles inside 50, half of what the Lions dished up. There was never any Swans when it hit the deck, no pressure on the Lions defenders trying to exit, and, most alarmingly, no one for the Lions defenders to really worry about. They had Lohmann, and if it wasn't Lohmann, it was Ah Chee. If it wasn't Ah Chee, it was Cameron. If it wasn't Cameron, it was Rayner. If it wasn't Rayner, it was Bailey. Small, ground level threats everywhere inside 50. That's before even getting to their mids who got loose inside 50, like Ashcroft and McCluggage. All of these names combined for 12 goals & 8 tackles inside 50 (more than our entire team.) That's just devastating forward half footy, whilst we had Papley and a bunch of talls & mediums. This after Collingwood also won the flag last year with four smalls in their forward line. You get the team you coach and Horse & co haven't seemed like a coaching group that's quite grasped the importance of this aspect of footy in the 2020s.

- I think this idea that Horse "doesn't care" about clearances is adding a bit of mayo to it. I think a more apt description would be that he doesn't have it as high on the priority list for our team/game plan as other aspects, like ball movement, transition from defensive 50, etc. And in fairness to Horse, many fans on here agreed, and were touting how we wouldn't need to be that great in clearances because we had our turnover game and amazing ball movement from the back half. But you get the team you coach, and you get the midfield you coach. There were many times yesterday - as in almost every game this year - where I looked at our stoppages and what I saw baffled me. Heeney was being wrapped in a bear hug, getting the most opposition attention, this time from Dunkley; Rowbottom had his back to the ball, putting the block on his opponent, mostly Neale; Warner or Gulden were a metre or two away from the ball drop, in position for a handball receive. This scenario played out over and over and over and each time it begged the question - who is winning the ball for us there, and how are they possibly going to do it? Compare that with Brisbane's mids, guys like McCluggage and Ashcroft were just attacking the ball, going straight for the ball drop each time, potential to be caught out of position each time be damned. They took those risks and it paid off. You get the team you coach, and we got the same midfield that is full of quality, talented players but a system that's always going to make winning effective clearances very difficult.

- We had 45 tackles yesterday for the game, 19 less than the Lions, despite them having 80 more possessions. 45 seemed a far cry from the 100 tackles we managed in the 2012 GF. To console myself yesterday I watched that grand final again, maybe looking for things that that group had that this group does not. What was clear watching that game, is that Rowbottom is close to the only current Swan who is imbued with the same spirit as that bunch. It's a certain fearlessness, tenacity and determination. But the rhetoric around players like Rowbottom has been problematic all year, or for multiple years. Because he's not the player being put on a pedestal or used as a benchmark for his teammates to meet or measure themselves against. Instead he's the player being used as an "out", a cover for his teammates so they don't have to show that same fearlessness, tenacity and determination. "He does all the hard stuff," his teammates often say. Ummm, you mean cracking in? Making one percenters? Giving second and third efforts? Tackling? Smothering? Just generally giving a shite? You get the team you coach, and the minute these all became selective things done by the few, rather than non-negotiables expected of the many, our whole DNA as a team and club changed.

All in all, I think what I want to see going forward is the club to find that DNA again. Remember what the Bloods is all about. It's not showing up for fourth quarter cameos when the pace is out of the game and it's all opened up so you can produce some highlights and pick up coaches votes. It's not picking and choosing when to defend or contest or put your body on the line because those things "aren't part of your role." It's not looking to teammates who give their all and hoping/expecting they'll take you over the line, but actually emulating their efforts as a team. You get the team you coach - over to Horse & co to make us a team of hardness, grit and character again.

Apologies for the long post.

Agree with all of this. Great post. Well worth the wait

Jack, hanners, jpk Jude non negotiable ball and body. Not moaning if you don’t get used. Doing your role - rok running through hanners to get the ball. Marty mattner up and back.

But can I just say it was obvious as long ago as 2014 that four tall forwards doesn’t work. We had Tippett, Goodes, Reid and Franklin - all of whom are better than each of our current four - and the ball bounced out all day.

The era of tall forwards is over. If there is any pressure on up the ground all they can do is bring the ball to ground. And unless there is something there the team with the best ground ball players will win out.

This is compounded by a strategy which says big guys should separate so the distance between one and the next is large - how is the slower lumbering player going to get first to the ball ?

On that I’m not remotely surprised at the low number of tackles. We couldn’t make any in the front half and the ball went too fast for the midfield. Repeat stoppages may have helped but we went from ten down to 40 down in five minutes.

To me this is why horse needs to prioritise clearances. We concede repeatedly really quickly. Until we manage to come up with a plan b (plan a being the same tap backwards to heeney running around behind) either smack it forwards and tackle the first bloke who gets it, or take it out of the ruck and do that ten times in a row.

 

[lazy77]

Not sure why we’re getting rid of Chad? He’s an absolute gun and one of our very best players. We’d lose so much offensive potency without him. He’s not a good defender, but he shouldn’t have to be. We just need the right mix around him to let him do his thing.

I would be glad to offload McDonald though. Such a mediocre player.

 

[WillHayward]

Pridham should call a club review and maybe it isn't Horse has to go, maybe it's change around him for example.

Stop being such an odd secretive club who talks drivel . Oh we are the biggest club in the land- who gives a ****. So quiet on injuries , closed off training when on the road compared to other clubs. Give the media and fans straight line stuff.

Be open and honest , is working for other clubs, fagan was honest about struggles etc

Sometimes Pridham down in the media are cringe worthy.

Even the handing out shirts to celebrate the minor premiership who gives a **** about that .

The sooking from the club and Harley over the Heeney suspension and Toby Greene thing was embarrassing. We tried to act holier than though as though somehow Heeney was above the rules or the Brownlow rules should be changed. Or we were "above" a bit of fun on social media which was beneath us. That was so cringe.. firstly who gives a flying **** about the Brownlow? Second the arrogance of assuming he was going to win anyway? Third who cares about some fun on social media?

Heeney broke a blokes nose..accident. copped a week. Fair play move on and cop it. Don't sook it up and pretend we are some high priests.

Then when it came to the crunch our boys like bruise free/free running footy.
If an opponent decides to tackle or body us we just crumble .

Add to that no proper tall defender and three complete shit truck tall fwds.

 

[lazy77]

Good tall forwards are worth their weight in gold. Our issue is that we have 3 mediocre ones who can’t take a contested mark to save their lives.

 

[The King!]

The sooking from the club and Harley over the Heeney suspension and Toby Greene thing was embarrassing. We tried to act holier than though as though somehow Heeney was above the rules or the Brownlow rules should be changed. Or we were "above" a bit of fun on social media which was beneath us. That was so cringe.. firstly who gives a flying **** about the Brownlow? Second the arrogance of assuming he was going to win anyway? Third who cares about some fun on social media?

Heeney broke a blokes nose..accident. copped a week. Fair play move on and cop it. Don't sook it up and pretend we are some high priests.

Then when it came to the crunch our boys like bruise free/free running footy.
If an opponent decides to tackle or body us we just crumble .

Add to that no proper tall defender and three complete shit truck tall fwds.

Remember Longmires quotes

"Given all that, what am I supposed to tell him and how am I supposed to coach him?"

"“I just don't know what to tell him now. What do I tell him?”

Cringey

 

[WillHayward]

When did we become the team everyone loves to hate

Acting high and mighty all the time and not humble.
Talking corporate speak
Ruining GF day with games finished at half time.

 

[melbournehammer]

Not sure why we’re getting rid of Chad? He’s an absolute gun and one of our very best players. We’d lose so much offensive potency without him. He’s not a good defender, but he shouldn’t have to be. We just need the right mix around him to let him do his thing.

I would be glad to offload McDonald though. Such a mediocre player.

It’s the answer to these questions


1. Is Chad determined to leave in next three years
2. Is his value as high as it is likely to be
3. Is this draft one that’s worth having high picks in ?
4. Is this team so mentally rooted (he wouldn’t be I reckon - I think he loves footy) that they’re not going to compete in the time period at 1 ?
5. Is Logan likely to improve
6. Do the Perth clubs have got draft capital to spend
6. Would we be selling Logan at his best value
7. Is logan likely to leave ?

Given the first six trend yes and the last two no chad makes more sense.

But that’s just wild speculation and based on info from others…

 

[WillHayward]

Remember Longmires quotes

"Given all that, what am I supposed to tell him and how am I supposed to coach him?"

"“I just don't know what to tell him now. What do I tell him?”

Cringey

Yeah not sure why we made such a drama out of it. Was an an accident. Bit of bad luck. It's sport. These things happen. Cop Ur week and move on and focus on the next game with the 23 lads who are playing.

 

[WillHayward]

Let's look at team makeup for a start.

Our forward & backline still needs significant work and our continuous loss at clearance puts us under undue pressure across the ground.

Pretty much it in a nutshell.

Imagine a Daniher, Andrews and Neale in our side.

Truth is we have absolutely nothing even close to these three.

Then hard nosed reliable defenders like Starcevitch and Lester. Not sure we have any? Rampe I suppose but sheesh he's probably cooked imo.

 

[The King!]

Pretty much it in a nutshell.

Imagine a Daniher, Andrews and Neale in our side.

Truth is we have absolutely nothing even close to these three.

Then hard nosed reliable defenders like Starcevitch and Lester. Not sure we have any? Rampe I suppose but sheesh he's probably cooked imo.

When we are flying we have goal kickers everywhere and defenders intercept making .

If the midfield just lose every single contest the dam wall breaks in defence and if you just bomb forward occasionally the forwards are stuffed.

Just swap say Mccartin for Andrews and Daniher for Amartey yesterday and I bet Brisbane still win comfortably

 

[smeggaz]

Blakey 5th in AFL for metres gained
2nd rebound 50s
Eq 14th intercepts (Swans no.1)
(7th in bounces)
All Australian

And people want to move him up forward?

You don’t rob Peter to pay Paul. Nuts.

Plenty could cover the loose defender / rebounding flanker role. We are in need of front half players that can take a mark, apply pressure and half a contest. Sam Reid was pretty good at this when not injured.

Heeney went from AA forward to AA mid and in the top 5 players in the league. Hawks throw Sicily forward as did another team (McGov?). Love to see them be more experimental in game and move blakey up to wing and forward more often when we are struggling to move it beyond halfway.

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[smeggaz]

Not sure why we’re getting rid of Chad? He’s an absolute gun and one of our very best players. We’d lose so much offensive potency without him. He’s not a good defender, but he shouldn’t have to be. We just need the right mix around him to let him do his thing.

I would be glad to offload McDonald though. Such a mediocre player.

We aren't getting rid of Chad, but can't stop him if he wants to leave and should get the draft capital this year before we lose leverage, unless we think the difference between us winning the premiership next year is having Chad in the side.

Would love if Chad was a swan for life. Top 10-20 player in the comp, and top 5 when he's having a purple patch.

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[Downhill Skier]

Blakey 5th in AFL for metres gained
2nd rebound 50s
Eq 14th intercepts (Swans no.1)
(7th in bounces)
All Australian

And people want to move him up forward?

You don’t rob Peter to pay Paul. Nuts.

Max Holmes move to the midfield at Geelong had them 3 minutes away from a Grand Final .

Who would have thought Rory Lobb could be the answer to the Bulldogs key defender problems .

Blakey has all the attributes to be a great medium forward , pace , marking ability , speed , elusiveness . Kicking ability and flair. And replacing one of the talks .

It may be robbing Peter a touch bit we don’t even have a Paul .

 

[melbournehammer]

Max Holmes move to the midfield at Geelong had them 3 minutes away from a Grand Final .

Who would have thought Rory Lobb could be the answer to the Bulldogs key defender problems .

Blakey has all the attributes to be a great medium forward , pace , marking ability , speed , elusiveness . Kicking ability and flair. And replacing one of the talks .

It may be robbing Peter a touch bit we don’t even have a Paul .

I do like this except Blakey covers up an awful lot of our inability to defend the bigger forwards one on one. It’s very often him that’s coming across to spoil the big lads who might be wrestling with mccartin. We don’t really have anyone else who can do this. I think we all agree that the rampe of 2016 isn’t coming back any time soon

 

[Bonz]

Blakey 5th in AFL for metres gained
2nd rebound 50s
Eq 14th intercepts (Swans no.1)
(7th in bounces)
All Australian

And people want to move him up forward?

You don’t rob Peter to pay Paul. Nuts.

Finally some sense here.

We had a great season, yes we didn't turn up yesterday (and by god is it fricken frustrating and infuriating).

But our best is still the best in the league.

I agree we need some changes, but Blakey going back forward is NOT one of them, his brilliant in his current role.

Logan is still developing nicely and I imagine he will take another step forward next year.

The changes I would make

• Play 2 of McDonald, Amartey and McLean (Use second (Amartey or McLean as second ruck), Haywood as third tall
• Another genuine small forward in the team, added pressure inside 50.
• Another pure inside bull in team (Sheldrick, Adams, I don't mind whom).
• Gulden stays on wing, Remove him from Centre square rotations
• Play Grundy 2 in 3 matches, Blood games into our younger rucks to develop.

This helps us keep our DNA, but also hits out on our genuine issues in the side. Warner, McDonald, Gulden, Blakey, Haywood, McDonald, Melican, McCartin, Campbell, Amartey, Roberts and McInerney still have development left in them. Let's back them in to improve.

Lastly I would be looking at getting some former players/ assistant coaches from successful clubs (Richmond or Hawthorn) and getting them roles with us (Would LOVE to poach a Cotchin type of player).

 

[Downhill Skier]

I do like this except Blakey covers up an awful lot of our inability to defend the bigger forwards one on one. It’s very often him that’s coming across to spoil the big lads who might be wrestling with mccartin. We don’t really have anyone else who can do this. I think we all agree that the rampe of 2016 isn’t coming back any time soon

Hooefully a fit Mills after a full preseason slots back into the backline and gives us some composure and footy smarts .

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

Looking in from outside:

Firstly, you don't make a lot of and finals without a very good coach. This can get lost when it doesn't result in regular silverware.
The AFL is hard like that, American sports have conference titles (I don't want conferences here) that mean something, Association Football in Europe and South America have meaningful champions league qualifications and cup competitions (other continents have the comps, but not as meaningful to fans or clubs). There is nothing of meaning in the AFL (or NRL for that matter) except one prize. That can lead to harsh judgment on very good coaches.

Second, it is tough to make the right move from here. Changing coaching staff probably only leads to going backwards with the same list. List turnover much beyond natural attrition probably only leads to going backwards with the same coaches.
Do too much and you stop being top-end competitive, but the GF is a trend now. And the last two have been blowouts.
It probably would take an outside consultant to look at it. Its presumably mental, maybe preparation. Is it a few players getting edgy who drop the group or what?
Although it may be set-up. Brisbane did have the disadvantage of playing away the week before, but with that came the advantage of winning on the wider MCG. Did they simply use space Sydney weren't adjusted to closing down, having not played anywhere except the SCG for a month. [MCG familiarity is a real thing, imo]

One thing I would suggest is that across the season PlanB hasn't been the problem. PlanA might have been.
Sydney had poor starts all season, by the standards of a team anywhere near top of the table. That suggests either the rest of the comp runs out of legs at half time (possibly something in that, most teams have to work to stay with Sydney and may tire earlier) or often PlanB works where PlanA fails.
However, on the second point, I'm not even sure what PlanA was for the GF and on that occasion PlanB never eventuated. Whatever the plan was, the players didn't seem to be on the same page - as each other or any plans.

Great reflections little john - thank you.

If Longmire was an EPL coach, he would be seen as indisputably one of the best of his generation, if not the best (I honestly don’t know the minor premiership records of other teams).

Which isn’t to absolve him of responsibility for GF fails, as whether we like it or not, the minor premiership is almost worthless as an end in itself in the AFL. In fact, you are probably better coming in second so you still get two home finals but you don’t get the noose around your neck if you fail to take out the premiership.

 

[Punts]

Hopefully no mental scars

Move on from the 3 forward set up , hated it ever since 13/14.

Get speed on the ball in the front half , another small with pressure number priority.

I don’t think will get one but we desperately need a bloke that can take contested marks just to take the heat of the game at times.

A clean pure clearance player , hunts.

The defence would be under less pressure as much if we fix the middle

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

Step 1: Sheldrick and Cleary must be introduced as permanent fixtures.

Step 2: time to move on from McLean. Honest toiler but we need more dynamism.

Step 3: Rampe to spend time in the VFL mentoring Snell and Edwards. They’re the future hope of our defence.

Step 4: draft a dynamic small / medium forward. My views on Hamish Davis are well documented. I’m sure there’s others like him.

Step 5: Horse to announce 2025 will be his last. It’s the only way to heal the mental scars.

Step 5 is critical.

History shows belted grand finalists struggle the following season. We’ll be no different. But we need to prepare for 2026.

McLean was a big disappointment for me this year. I had referred to him as a metronome as he just kept slowly getting better and better - I thought this would be a break out year where his improvement would take him to dominant forward status.

Next year he should take a leap out of the Ted Richards playbook. Ted read Good to Great and decided that he didn’t need to be good at 3km trials, he needed to be able to wrestle monsters. So he spent more time in the gym and muscled up, becoming one of the best KPDs in the comp.

McLean will never be agile, and I am not sure his endurance is worth that much. I’d love to see him stack on the kilos and seek to become the biggest badest KPF in the game. He has the frame to do it. And he frankly needs to mongrel the f*** up if he wants to be a professional. Being a gentle giant is unacceptable for a big man. It would be like Gulden saying he prefers to handball than kick because that is just the way he is.

Some will say that game is switching to smaller faster players. I actually think having distinct players in some positions will complement this better. It almost seemed like we stacked out forward line with too many KPFs and medium forwards because we didn’t trust any of them to take enough strong marks.

I also think McLean was used too much in the ruck. If Grundy needs a rest, play bloody Ladhams a few games and give Grundy a rest. It was madness to play Grundy non-stop when we had a half decent ruck in reserve (who frankly may have done a better job than Grundy in some of the games, as he would have been fresh and hungry). And playing McLean meant his time up forward was severely limited and his opportunities to sync with the midfield was reduced.

 

[lazy77]

I do like this except Blakey covers up an awful lot of our inability to defend the bigger forwards one on one. It’s very often him that’s coming across to spoil the big lads who might be wrestling with mccartin. We don’t really have anyone else who can do this. I think we all agree that the rampe of 2016 isn’t coming back any time soon

Rampe’s been an absolute rock all season though. He had an unimaginably poor game yesterday, but I’d need a few more of those before I start calling him cooked. I think he has one more decent season in him.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

If Sheldrick doesn’t play next year, he’s gone.

Granted, injuries have been a problem, but if he doesn’t play next year purely because Horse sticks with the status quo, it’d be negligence of the highest order.

Sheldrick and Cleary are what we lack - young, fearless, ultra-competitive types who just want the ball at all costs.

It’s only with those type of players can Gulden, McI and even Warner shine in high-pressure games.

We never would have won flags without the Kirks, Judes and Fosdikes.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

Excellent post. Would like to build on this only from a winning a GF perpsective.

We are too nice a club from the board all the way down to the players and that lack of mongrel is what kills us in grand finals. We need a clean out of sorts as this 23 ain’t winning us a flag, ever.

Our lack of inside grunt needs urgent correction. No clearance / no premiership.

1. Time to trade some players.

• McCartin (panic merchant, too many low percentage plays, won’t win a GF)
• Amartey and McClean, VFL not AFL level. Stringer would have performed better. Not the nicest guy but has mongrel we need. Not necessarily him but someone who has presence.

2. Heeney injured so should play mainly forward as can’t sustain midfield, better than 3 talls.
3. Logan to be made a defender if we can’t draft one. Not our KPF solution.
4: in addition to Cleary and Gus, Campbell and Fox must start. Who goes out ? Don’t really care, reshuffle if we have to. (Parker, Lloyd, Florent etc)
5. Adams to play or we trade him asap.
6. Ramps / Parks will retire or leave soon so need to plan for that.
7. Warner - hmmm. Would keep as I’m assuming we get the inside grunt to allow him to play outside.
8. If Jmac doesn’t recover from PCL, he plays in the 2nds.

And Horse, time to retire. Same for many of the assistants. He’s been a great coach, but We need someone who is ruthless if we are to win the flag. Playing zone when Lions went uncontested is unforgivable.

Doing the same stuff with the same folk will yield the same outcome.

If Logan becomes a KPD we certainly bought high and sold low with the timing of his contract extension.

Given the rarity of strong KPFs, I think you don’t close the door on the KPF option yet. Perhaps he plays more a swing man role next year as we try to work out his role.

Heck, he has already been useless in final due to injury, so he is in the way to filling Reid’s shoes.

He better come out of preseason several kilos heavier regardless.