List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 5

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Groupie_ said:
wow scats board is melt city

we are delusional in thinking we can transition our list in one of season like them 😂

hopper wouldnt get a game for them

and the old we never wanted him anyway of course 😂
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We might have to trade a few out because he might not get a game for us either
Noidnadroj said:
For those talking about TT and Hopper ‘backfiring’ …. you don’t know what you’re talking about. Getting 2 x excellent players to your club cannot be a bad move - it’s just not logical. Sure, they might get injured, but so could a draftee you get. So could Shai Bolton, Balta, Rioli, Baker or Sonsie. We are not picking up a Hannebery or Beams …. we are not picking up a flanker (Wingard) or soft winger (Hill).

And let’s say we ignore TT and Hopper and get 3-4 x draftees instead. They take 3-4 seasons to mature. So by the time they are ready to really make an impact the following players are all gone:

Grimes
Prestia
Lynch
Cotchin
Dusty
Riewoldt
Broad
Pickett
Tarrant

Without TT and Hopper we’d be no chance of a flag from 2023-24 as with Cotchin another year older and Prestia injury prone we just don’t have the midfield grunt.

So we’d really be banking on some amazing draftees to be good enough to have us contending when the above list of players are gone…. get the draft picks wrong and we just don’t have quite enough elite talent to contend.

So we may not win a flag any time soon, and we may not even make top-4 regularly etc…. it’s a bloody hard league. But I do know that TT and Hopper give us our best chance of contending for the next 5-7 seasons. And give us a chance in 2023 which we wouldn’t have without them.

In terms of the 7-year contract lengths, I don’t think we should be naive enough to think Hartley and the team haven’t analysed the data of when quality midfielders ‘retire’. I went back to 2010, and these are the ONLY ‘quality’ midfielders I could find who retired at 30yo or younger… from literally hundreds of midfielders to finish their careers:

2010: Hasleby 29yo
2011: Ling 30yo
B Rawlings 30yo
2012: None
2013: Kerr 30yo
2014: Ball 30yo
Sewell 30yo
2015: Foley 29yo
2016: VanBerlo 30yo
Cooney 30yo
2017: swallow 30yo
2018: None
2019: None
2020: Beams 30yo
Steven 30yo
Bennell 28yo
Ebert 30yo
2021: Scully 29yo
2022: Lambert 30yo


And here are the age of retirees of players I regard as B+ or better midfielders in the same time:

2010: Tyson Edwards 33yo
Goodwin 33yo
McLeod 34yo
Cousins 32yo
Kirk 33yo
Johnson 34yo

2011: None

2012: Power 32yo

2013: Black 34yo
Corey 31yo
Bolton 33yo
Kerr 30yo

2014: Ball 30yo
Hayes 34yo
O’Keefe 33yo

2015: Judd 31yo
Chapman 33yo
Cross 32yo
Cornes 32yo
Goodes 35yo

2016: Swan 32yo
Cooney 30yo
Bartel 32yo
DalSanto 32yo
Boomer 38yo

2017: Thompson 34yo
Kelly 33yo
Watson 32yo
Montagna 33yo
Mitchell 34yo
Priddis 32yo
Boyd 34yo

2018: Griffen 32yo
Vince 32yo

2019: Wells 34yo
Rischetelli. 33yo
Deledio 32yo
Lewis 33yo
Jack 32yo
McVeigh 34yo

2020: Gibbs 31yo
Ablett 36yo

2021: Murphy 34yo
Mackay 33yo
S Hill 31yo
Burgoyne 38yo
Jones 33yo
Rockliff 31yo

2022: Mundy 37yo
Shiels 31yo
Gray 34yo
Edwards 33yo
Hanneberry 31yo
Kennedy 34yo


So as you can see, only 4 x ‘quality’ midfielders have retired before 30yo in the last 12-years: Bennell, Foley, Scully and Hasleby.

And nearly all ‘quality’ mids have retired well beyond 31yo. This is not to say both TT and Hopper will be playing $750k football in year 7 …. but is Dusty playing $1.3m footy? Is Buddy playing $1.2m footy? Is McGovern playing $1m footy etc ……

Anyway … the data shows there is very little risk with 7-year deals for these 2. And $750k will be ‘chump change’ relatively speaking in 7-years time anyway.


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Remember when we where considering Hannebery?
 
RJK Tiger said:
People who say they can't see how it could backfire have obviously not experienced much life.

Trading 2 years of your best draft assets for 2 players can backfire in so many ways.

Once you start moving future picks, the risk factor multiplies considerably. Better teams than us have fallen off the cliff completely from our current position.

The one thing our club has proved to be since 2019 is very unpredictable. Drama, is always just around the corner
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Not only that just means the cliff is more certain later.

Get worse draft picks, comp work to beat you more as counter productive and the youngsters do not want to come because they know the cliff is coming.

Funny how Geelong are going even younger with Bruhn.


Means fans and supporters guaranteed to drop off in the years ahead.

What might have been good players like Brown leave because they are not given a opportunity.

Very self serving play
 

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Mr Magic said:
Not only that just means the cliff is more certain later.

Get worse draft picks, comp work to beat you more as counter productive and the youngsters do not want to come because they know the cliff is coming.

Funny how Geelong are going even younger with Bruhn.


Means fans and supporters guaranteed to drop off in the years ahead.

What might have been good players like Brown leave because they are not given a opportunity.

Very self serving play
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Geesook have done it. Yes they haven’t quite won the flag yet but will this year
 
banzai said:
Whats the backfire part of it though? Any player we draft in the next 2 years aint helping us win finals for at least 5 years, by then even the likes of Bolton are getting towards 30 and Lynch and Prestia are gone. We may as well try and win another flag with Dimma in the next 4-5 years. If we fall short, and it happened to Hawthorn, so what? Just start our rebuild when its clear it didnt work, yeah you lose a few years but can start a rebuild at anytime.
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Exactly you can clear the decks and rebuild at any point. Maybe you don’t have a first rounder the first year at worst, plus it just means you can be shitter the year after that.

Culture and development are the real keys a rebuild anyway otherwise GC, GWS, Carlton etc. would be unbeatable with all their top picks.
 
Groupie_ said:
View attachment 1503139
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Lol carlscum do these buffons ever stop to think about what they are saying?

Now If Kennedy and cerra both went on the market alongside Taranto and Hopper would anyone seriously take Kennedy and Cerra over Taranto and hooper? I highly doubt it.
 
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RJK Tiger said:
People who say they can't see how it could backfire have obviously not experienced much life.

Trading 2 years of your best draft assets for 2 players can backfire in so many ways.

Once you start moving future picks, the risk factor multiplies considerably. Better teams than us have fallen off the cliff completely from our current position.

The one thing our club has proved to be since 2019 is very unpredictable. Drama, is always just around the corner
Click to expand...

There is no risk-less way to build a team capable of winning a premiership.

From a financial standpoint, yes we’ll have the bulk of our cash tied up in five players. The new TV deal however likely sees player salaries rise and the salary cap along with it. Of those:

Dusty and Prestia out of contract in 24
Lynch in 25.

Depending on how they go next season, I wouldn’t be surprised if Dusty and Prestia extended and at the same time reducing the amount payable in the last year of thei current Contract. Same with Lynch in 24.

In fact, we are more likely to avoid the pain coming to Carlton who will have so many Contracts in the $600k - $800k that they’ll likely lose someone (Harry McKay or De Koning
Would be my guess); or like Collingwood who has had to force out heavily contracted players (and pay some of their wages) to re-balance their salary cap.

You may lose some mid-tier guys who seek the best Contact they can in their prime (Conca and Brandon Ellis are examples), but we have generally been able to keep the players we want (exception probably Higgins and CCJ, but even then not a huge loss) and you get compensated for that loss.

Admittedly I was originally against getting both because of the financial repercussions, but the TV deal changes things, as does Cotch and Riewoldt taking pay cuts. Which also sets the standard for those towards the end of their careers who want continued success (Grimes etc.).

Yes you also give up significant draft capital over a two year span. But you also had significant draft capital that was utilised last season (six top 30 picks), and we’ve shown a knack for getting handy guys with picks outside top 30 (Cumberland, Ralphsmith, Ross, MRJ, Miller, Graham, Baker etc.). You can also trade back into the draft to regain that capital.

In fact, I’d go so far to say we are treating last years draft as both last year and this years draft haul; which is why we are happy to trade out of it to bring in two established players that help cement your core in one hit.

Where teams like Essendon and to a degree Carlton and Hawthorn have fallen down is that year on year they give up draft capital for players. If you can avoid this vicious cycle (which we have, since 2017 brought in only 4 players with prior AFL experience Lynch [UFA], Mav Weller [DFA], Matt Parker [MSD] and Robbie Tarrant) it’s a coverable two year blip that even if it doesn’t work, still gives you time to recalibrate.

Lastly, it’s also an opportunity that very ever rarely comes up. Like with Lynch as a UFA, if you have a chance to do it, do it. The opportunity is unlikely to come around again for a while.
 
tigerfan1961 said:
The McRae Bubble is going to burst so badly next year, guaranteed. They lack so much in the way of elite talent.
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They will definitely struggle. Feel like all there senior players have had great seasons except Grundy and Adams of course.

And young Dacois won't be there next year.

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RJK Tiger said:
Not overly relevant. There are a 1000 other ways moves like these backfire. Trading future picks is a risky game. 7 year deals are a really risky move. We are 2 years off COVID & people don't see the risk in committing to something for 7 years??

I am not completely opposed to getting both these guys, I just don't like the idea of being so dry with picks when we also have very obvious roster flaws such as

  • Possibly no ready made back up ruckman is Soldo is moved
  • No Key Position Forward back up with senior experience & only moderate prospects in Samson & Bauer developing
  • Backline depth still a bit unknown

In the 2 years we will be dry of bluechip draft pieces, we will go into those 3 drafts facing the task of replacing Edwards, Lambert, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Tarrant, Grimes, Martin, Prestia.

The moves we made in getting Hopper & Taranto possibly cover us for the impact both Lambert & Edwards had at peak time in our dynasty. I mean, that is a really high level for sure - but it leaves us totally bare in the future years were its now the clubs GOATS walking away. These moves are all about winning a flag in the next 2 years . If that doesn't happen tho, we could see us fall away incredibly fast & have a much longer & harsher rebuil
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Can you not find any positives with getting 2 gun mids about to enter there prime?

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Mr Magic said:
Not only that just means the cliff is more certain later.

Get worse draft picks, comp work to beat you more as counter productive and the youngsters do not want to come because they know the cliff is coming.

Funny how Geelong are going even younger with Bruhn.


Means fans and supporters guaranteed to drop off in the years ahead.

What might have been good players like Brown leave because they are not given a opportunity.

Very self serving play
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How self-serving of Richmond to give us a 3-peat.

Bad take.

We can thank Jack & Trent for the million dollars they’ve gifted us next year to pay these two.
 

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Pies will be desperate to off load Grundy to free up cap space. Melbourne should offer a third rounder

Still can't see how Collingwood can bring in 4+ players, they don't have the list spots. Only have 2 spots currently Roughead and Keane (rookie) retirements.
I can see another fire sale happening to off load players.
 
Can't believe some people in the footy world (and Richmond fans) reckon we're trading away the future.....we won't be dealing away any top 10 picks, just mid-late first rounders.

Here's our previous top 30 picks since 2010. Have left off 2021 draftees since they're still in the early stages.
Striking out Dow might be considered harsh but he's had opportunity and Sonsie and Ross have shown more imo.

2010 - Pick 6: Reece Conca
2010 - Pick 30:Jake Batchelor
2011 - Pick 15: Brandon Ellis
2011 - Pick 26: Todd Elton
2012 - Pick 9: Nick Vlastuin
2013 - Pick 12: Ben Lennon
2014 - Pick 12: Corey Ellis
2015 - Pick 15: Daniel Rioli
2016 - Pick 29: Shai Bolton
2017 - Pick 17: Jack Higgins
2017 - Pick 20: Callum Coleman-Jones
2017 - Pick 25: Noah Balta
2018 - Pick 20: Riley Collier-Dawkins
2019 - Pick 21: Thomson Dow

That's a 5/14 strike rate. If I included the 2008 draft I would have made you blokes spew up.

Trading for mature players in their peak delivered us flags... Lynch, Prestia, Caddy, Nank, Houli etc. This obviously does come with a bit of risk...but landing a 200+ game AA caliber player in the first round is hard work.

We hit the draft hard last year with 5 top 30 picks and they look good so far.
Good decision to now land some proven guns who can fill our biggest need.
 
Ahhh the old "it's bad for the game" narrative is being run out by Cornes.
Happy Big Brother GIF by MOODMAN
 
tastiger said:
If this was Geelong bringing in Grundy and hopper every journo would be judging it as a master-stroke

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100%


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