Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[1990crow]

The devil is in the details.

What does peace look like to you, and how do we get there? Because all short routes to peace look like rewarding Russia for its aggression, and punishing Ukraine for its unwillingness to roll over.

As someone who also wants peace, and doesn't want world war 3, that doesn't look like either peace, or a way to avoid world war 3 imop.

As previously mentioned, Russias conditions for talks are impossible, so either Ukraine fights until Russia has to change them, or Ukraine is forced to accept them. Do you have another way in mind? Bearing in mind, washing our hands of it and sitting back is effectively option 2.

Rewarding Russia and preventing ww3?
It's worth discussing before it happens.
Because that's what it looks like right now.
NATO is actively preparing for it.
Obviously trusting Russia in any negotiation is a problem.

Option b is a ceasefire along the contact line.

 

[1990crow]

Is it not underlined for you? I can quote it here:
"the West are currently choosing to keep this conflict going indefinitely"
Parroting this racist claim every 10 pages for 4 threads doesn't make it true.

Racist? WTF?

 

[Visions]

Option b is a ceasefire along the contact line.

It is until shortly after option b, Russia attacks again leading to more genocide and the same misguided peace loving activists calling for another ceasefire along the new contact lines to prevent WW3.

Then we keep on rinsing and repeating.

 

[Mobbs]

Racist? WTF?

Yes. Well, borderline, or by association. You are suggesting that Ukrainians lack the capability to choose if they want to defend themselves . Hate to break it to you, but people in other countries do think for themselves. I've talked to a number (incl. one last night) and they are intent on fighting for self-preservation regardless what "the West" says.

Any claim that Ukraine are only able to do what they are told, and not decide for themselves, is dehumanising an entire people.

 

[Mobbs]

Rewarding Russia and preventing ww3?

Rewarding Russia means greenlighting the annihilation of an entire people.
If we are a species who believes it's ok to sacrifice an entire people in order to appease a threat of WW3, then why do we deserve as a species to be spared it?
Right now the RF are the monsters. If we say it's okay to destroy Ukraine in order to preserve our own safety from a possibility, then RF would no longer be the only monsters.

 

[1990crow]

It is until shortly after option b, Russia attacks again leading to more genocide and the same misguided peace loving activists calling for another ceasefire along the new contact lines to prevent WW3.

Then we keep on rinsing and repeating.

I completely understand this point of view. And maybe it's correct.

All I'm saying is we need to talk about it, because it's looking like heading towards NATO/Russia direct conflict.

 

[1990crow]

Rewarding Russia means greenlighting the annihilation of an entire people.
If we are a species who believes it's ok to sacrifice an entire people in order to appease a threat of WW3, then why do we deserve as a species to be spared it?
Right now the RF are the monsters. If we say it's okay to destroy Ukraine in order to preserve our own safety from a possibility, then RF would no longer be the only monsters.

It wouldn't be greenlighting. It would be acknowledging Russia isn't willing to move back to its previous borders, and currently Ukraine doesn't have the ability to force it.

 

[1990crow]

Yes. Well, borderline, or by association. You are suggesting that Ukrainians lack the capability to choose if they want to defend themselves . Hate to break it to you, but people in other countries do think for themselves. I've talked to a number (incl. one last night) and they are intent on fighting for self-preservation regardless what "the West" says.

Any claim that Ukraine are only able to do what they are told, and not decide for themselves, is dehumanising an entire people.

I'm not suggesting that at all.
I said, the West is committing to a prolonged conflict in Ukraine. And Russia is likely to increase its mobilisation and arms race to counter this.
You have to think what the other side is going to do.

Appeasement didn't work in ww2. I know this. But Hitler was always going to have his conquest.
The question is will Putin stop if there's a ceasefire?

I don't know the answer to this, as there's no way of knowing.

 

[Mobbs]

That's not the assumption.
The assumption is he will send more bodies to the front than concede back into pre 2014 borders or worse expand mass mobilisation.
He would see retreating as a sign of weakness for his leadership - my point is the West are currently choosing to keep this conflict going indefinitely because they know Putin won't retreat.

Again here is your post. Within the post are these words:
"my point is the West are currently choosing to keep this conflict going"
Have you worded it wrong? Do you mean to say "the West are currently supporting Ukraine's intention to defend itself"?
Hopefully yes.

The other two points I don't have a problem with:
"he will send more bodies to the front than concede back into pre 2014 borders or worse expand mass mobilisation"
This is potentially true. And the guy you responded to is also right. "doesn't care how many people he sends to die" (can't remember wording). Both feel valid as potentially true.

"He would see retreating as a sign of weakness for his leadership." - I don't disagree. I think this could be true of many if not all leaders in a conflict situation. Almost everyone here has said that either Putin needs to be ousted/offed for the RF to stop, or for Putin + any influential silovici need to be ousted/offed for the RF to stop.

IMO he would need to go even if he hadn't invaded a bunch of places - political persecution, minority oppression and the militaristic police state are enough to ruin the world of millions of Russians even without the invasion of Ukraine.

 

[Mobbs]

Appeasement didn't work in ww2. I know this. But Hitler was always going to have his conquest.
The question is will Putin stop if there's a ceasefire?

Knowing the future is impossible. But modelling possible futures on the past is very possible. Which is why I can't conceive of him stopping in the case of a ceasefire.
He's already started in Moldova the same thing as he started pre-2014 in Ukraine. And knowing the present is fairly assessable.

 

[1990crow]

Again here is your post. Within the post are these words:
"my point is the West are currently choosing to keep this conflict going"
Have you worded it wrong? Do you mean to say "the West are currently supporting Ukraine's intention to defend itself"?
Hopefully yes.

The other two points I don't have a problem with:
"he will send more bodies to the front than concede back into pre 2014 borders or worse expand mass mobilisation"
This is potentially true. And the guy you responded to is also right. "doesn't care how many people he sends to die" (can't remember wording). Both feel valid as potentially true.

"He would see retreating as a sign of weakness for his leadership." - I don't disagree. I think this could be true of many if not all leaders in a conflict situation. Almost everyone here has said that either Putin needs to be ousted/offed for the RF to stop, or for Putin + any influential silovici need to be ousted/offed for the RF to stop.

IMO he would need to go even if he hadn't invaded a bunch of places - political persecution, minority oppression and the militaristic police state are enough to ruin the world of millions of Russians even without the invasion of Ukraine.

1. Obviously I mean the West is supporting Ukraine's intention. Nowhere in my post does this suggest otherwise. This is geopolitics we are talking about.
2. Suggesting I'm racist is offensive.

 

[Mobbs]

1. Obviously I mean the West is supporting Ukraine's intention. Nowhere in my post does this suggest otherwise. This is geopolitics we are talking about.
2. Suggesting I'm racist is offensive.

Again here are your words:
"my point is the West are currently choosing to keep this conflict going".
Did you think I'd already forgotten?

 

[DaTBird187]

Yeah. South Korean law prohibits sending arms to conflict zones

Hi South Korea, can we get some of those weapons you use for fighting wars?

Sure thing. But just to check, you're not going to use them for any fighting type stuff are you?

You mean like a war?

Yeah.

Well, yes, of course we are.

No, you can't use them for that.

 

[Visions]

I completely understand this point of view. And maybe it's correct.

All I'm saying is we need to talk about it, because it's looking like heading towards NATO/Russia direct conflict.

You just need to look at the last 30 odd years to know how Russians respect ceasefires in conflict.

Hell, even in my post a few pages back, during initial negotiations two years back Russia didn't want any clauses inserted which meant retribution if there was any further attacks on Ukraine. That's a sign right there!

All a ceasefire on current lines will do is kick that can down the road.

 

[CD Xbow]

Can we just send Nigel to Russia?

This whole provoked narrative is embarrassing.

The bit I find really disturbing is where he says 'he admires Putin as a political operator for the degree of control he has over Russia'. What is it about these people that makes them admire autocracy and fascism? Haven't we seen enough of the horrors it brings, from WWII all the way through to Ukraine. Perhaps even more disturbing are the supporters of these people who enable it. Putin, Xi and even Trump are despots whose ultra nationalistic agendas and playbooks are often very similar to the Nazi's. Human race needs to grow up.

 

[Mobbs]

Daniil Orain (formerly producer of the 1420 Russian vox pop interview channel) now expresses himself more openly and cyncially in his new format:

The Lithuanian win at the BRICS is just mind-numbing.

 

[Mobbs]

Fans of Viktor Tsoi prevented from visiting his gravesite to celebrate his birthday. [Fontanka SPB TG]

Tsoi was the face of the internationally popular group Kino, and many would probably recognise his name worldwide even without the connection.

His songs were known for some critical or even revolutionary themes and thus he's persona non grata to the imperialist machine of the RF, even in memoriam.

My favourite songs from Viktor Tsoi are probably the two best known, Kukushka (later rejigged by Polina Gagarina and used in the film the Battle for Sevastopol) and Changes (which I first heard in the movie Assa) that talks about needing change - though Tsoi denied it was an activist statement ... fooling absolutely no-one.

Fans of Viktor Tsoi fought with construction equipment at the singer’s grave on his birthday

They gathered to celebrate Tsoi’s birthday and were pushed away from his burial site by construction equipment. Work on landscaping the area began on the evening of June 21.

At 18.00, police officers politely asked the musician’s fans gathered at the Bogoslovskoye cemetery to leave. Most of the fans moved behind the railroad tracks onto the lawn, but some remained where they were.

At about 20:00, five pieces of equipment and about ten workers converged on the grave of Viktor Tsoi, who silently began to remove soil from the newly laid lawn.

A skirmish ensued; several people attempted to stand in front of the heavy equipment and even lie down in the bucket. After this, the police arrived at the scene, accompanied by a man who introduced himself as the work manager. In response to the bewilderment of fans, he said that he did not see anything unusual in the work being carried out on Friday evening. After this, the fans switched to a musical protest and sang the song “I’m planting aluminum cucumbers on a tarpaulin field,” to which workers in blue overalls began to roll out rolled turf.

A traffic police squad is currently on duty in the cemetery area.

Viktor Tsoi - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[1990crow]

Again here are your words:
"my point is the West are currently choosing to keep this conflict going".
Did you think I'd already forgotten?

You're being a illogical and not actually reading my posts. It's an emotional topic for sure, but no reason to be offensive.

 

[1990crow]

You just need to look at the last 30 odd years to know how Russians respect ceasefires in conflict.

Hell, even in my post a few pages back, during initial negotiations two years back Russia didn't want any clauses inserted which meant retribution if there was any further attacks on Ukraine. That's a sign right there!

All a ceasefire on current lines will do is kick that can down the road.

Again, understand this. I'm just highlighting we are currently at a very dangerous time where a major Eurpoean conflict looks more likely than not if this continues.

I'd like to avoid it if possible.

 

[Mobbs]

... not actually reading my posts.

Well ... not anymore.

 

[1990crow]

Well ... not anymore.

You never did.

 

[Mobbs]

High-quality photographs of the consequences of the arrival of Ukrainian missiles at the control point and storage base of the Russian UAV "Shahed 136" in Yeysk have been published - [Mysiagin TG]

 

[jatz14]

Rewarding Russia and preventing ww3?
It's worth discussing before it happens.
Because that's what it looks like right now.
NATO is actively preparing for it.
Obviously trusting Russia in any negotiation is a problem.

Option b is a ceasefire along the contact line.

Worth discussing?

What makes you think its not being discussed? Because they didn't invite you?

They can discuss anything and everything all they want. Can Santa Claus negotiate peace, can Putin blow purple bubbles from his butt?

What matters is what concrete things are being called for as a requirement for peace talks, and what countries actually do.

Everyone acknowledges what Russia demands for real talks is unacceptable for Ukraine or the West.

So, what happens then, beside Ukraine discussing how it's unacceptable and Russia discussing how it's that or more war.

What next?

What are the actual concrete steps everyone takes while these non discussion discussions are happening and achieving nothing?

Because I only see 2 options, keep supporting Ukraine until the unacceptable becomes acceptable, or don't, and force them to take the unacceptable.

Given that this is also unacceptable to the US and NATO, and particularly, the individual states near Russia, that's not happening.

Which leaves us back where we are.

Everyone thinking the West is wrong keeps saying the same thing. Peace not war, negotiate, not bombs.

How does that happen? What do we do right now, that isn't just forcing Ukraine to capitulate to subjugation?

I suspect the real answer for some of them, not saying this is you, more the extreme nutjobs, is that they are ardent haters of the West, or rabid Putin fanboys, or both, and for them, the total subjugation of Ukraine, and subsequent ethnic cleansing to permanently consolidate Russia hegemony, is the goal.

Ths is what they want. Negotiating for Russian victory, not for peace. Peace is just the sugar coating to make the genocide pill easier to swallow.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[1990crow]

Worth discussing?

What makes you think its not being discussed? Because they didn't invite you?

They can discuss anything and everything all they want. Can Santa Claus negotiate peace, can Putin blow purple bubbles from his butt?

What matters is what concrete things are being called for as a requirement for peace talks, and what countries actually do.

Everyone acknowledges what Russia demands for real talks is unacceptable for Ukraine or the West.

So, what happens then, beside Ukraine discussing how it's unacceptable and Russia discussing how it's that or more war.

What next?

What are the actual concrete steps everyone takes while these non discussion discussions are happening and achieving nothing?

Because I only see 2 options, keep supporting Ukraine until the unacceptable becomes acceptable, or don't, and force them to take the unacceptable.

Given that this is also unacceptable to the US and NATO, and particularly, the individual states near Russia, that's not happening.

Which leaves us back where we are.

Everyone thinking the West is wrong keeps saying the same thing. Peace not war, negotiate, not bombs.

How does that happen? What do we do right now, that isn't just forcing Ukraine to capitulate to subjugation?

I suspect the real answer for some of them, not saying this is you, more the extreme nutjobs, is that they are ardent haters of the West, or rabid Putin fanboys, or both, and for them, the total subjugation of Ukraine, and subsequent ethnic cleansing to permanently consolidate Russia hegemony, is the goal.

Ths is what they want. Negotiating for Russian victory, not for peace. Peace is just the sugar coating to make the genocide pill easier to swallow.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Why so aggressive?

 

[wannabejack]

Putin has threaten NATO countries.
"To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace." For me this is a better way to look at why NATO is preparing for war.