Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[1990crow]

Putin has threaten NATO countries.
"To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace." For me this is a better way to look at why NATO is preparing for war.

To a degree.

WW1 was a direct result of a breakdown in communications and clear alliances leading to mass military build up. War was likely inevitable when all sides stopped looking for deescalation.
I see more similarities with WW1 then WW2.

 

[Visions]

Again, understand this. I'm just highlighting we are currently at a very dangerous time where a major Eurpoean conflict looks more likely than not if this continues.

I'd like to avoid it if possible.

What about other hot zones?

If China invades Taiwan, then a major conflict happens.

If Nth Korea invades Sth Korea, then a major conflict happens.

For the sake of avoiding these conflicts expanding, do you just take your advice and give in to the aggressor rewarding them with their demands?

 

[Saint]

Again, understand this. I'm just highlighting we are currently at a very dangerous time where a major Eurpoean conflict looks more likely than not if this continues.

I'd like to avoid it if possible.

TO Avoid Major European conflict, Putin has to be not only stopped where he is, but turned back. If he's rewarded for his invasion. He will invade again, and again, and again.

Honestly. There's people talking about world history/politics and they don't even know what appeasement is and how it works.

Russia started the conflict and if they're allowed to quit while they're ahead, they'll start more conflicts.

A direct battle between NATO and Russia is not something to be feared. It will put a stop to Russia's intransigence once and for all. It's the only thing which will.

Russia has already deported and orphaned off Ukrainian children and killed many more, and have a long history of ethnic cleansing. They'll do the same when they conquer more territory. THat's why Ukrainians will fight for every inch, whether they have US weapons or not.

 

[1990crow]

What about other hot zones?

If China invades Taiwan, then a major conflict happens.

If Nth Korea invades Sth Korea, then a major conflict happens.

For the sake of avoiding these conflicts expanding, do you just take your advice and give in to the aggressor rewarding them with their demands?

This is the exact point I'm making though.
Ukraine leading into a hot NATO/Russia conflict potentially allows these other conflicts to commence given the world's attention will be in Europe and China will take advantage.

Maybe this is all eniveitable. But I'm not happy about it.

 

[CD Xbow]

To a degree.

WW1 was a direct result of a breakdown in communications and clear alliances leading to mass military build up. War was likely inevitable when all sides stopped looking for deescalation.
I see more similarities with WW1 then WW2.

Nah. If you ask folks who started WW1 you will get many complex answers, usually ending with proximate cause (the spark) being the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand,. Ask who started WWII you nearly always get one answer - Hitler/Nazis/Germany.
This IMHO is similar to the situation with Russia's invasion of Ukraine

In both WWII and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the prewar period featured many demands and claims by the larger party, such as "protect their people", dubious historical claims over land, destiny of the people etc. The ultimate irony being Putin's desire to 'de-nazify' Ukraine. I don't know how he could ever say it and keep a straight face.

If you look at the pattern of the combatants involved, it is again closer to the start of WWII - A single much larger, aggressive, autocratic neighbour invades smaller neighbour after a period increasing pressure and demands. After the assassination WWI took off like wildfire to involve large powers on both sides of the conflict.

If you are talking about the pattern of conflict then there certainly are similarities with it stagnating into hard to penetrate lines and the huge loss of life when trying to advance your lines. There are many differences, too.

 

[darth_timon]

The bit I find really disturbing is where he says 'he admires Putin as a political operator for the degree of control he has over Russia'. What is it about these people that makes them admire autocracy and fascism? Haven't we seen enough of the horrors it brings, from WWII all the way through to Ukraine. Perhaps even more disturbing are the supporters of these people who enable it. Putin, Xi and even Trump are despots whose ultra nationalistic agendas and playbooks are often very similar to the Nazi's. Human race needs to grow up.

I have little doubt that Farage would have been on the side of Hitler in WWII. At least one Reform candidate outright said that Britain should have been neutral in WWII. Reform is filled with bigots, many of whom would have felt right at home with the Nazis, and they'll feel right at home with Putin too.

 

[darth_timon]

TO Avoid Major European conflict, Putin has to be not only stopped where he is, but turned back. If he's rewarded for his invasion. He will invade again, and again, and again.

Honestly. There's people talking about world history/politics and they don't even know what appeasement is and how it works.

Russia started the conflict and if they're allowed to quit while they're ahead, they'll start more conflicts.

A direct battle between NATO and Russia is not something to be feared. It will put a stop to Russia's intransigence once and for all. It's the only thing which will.

Russia has already deported and orphaned off Ukrainian children and killed many more, and have a long history of ethnic cleansing. They'll do the same when they conquer more territory. THat's why Ukrainians will fight for every inch, whether they have US weapons or not.

I agree that appeasing Putin will end badly. He will definitely be emboldened if he gets away with annexing bits of Ukraine.

As for a direct battle with NATO... my big concern is that this rapidly escalates into nuclear war.

 

[1990crow]

I agree that appeasing Putin will end badly. He will definitely be emboldened if he gets away with annexing bits of Ukraine.

As for a direct battle with NATO... my big concern is that this rapidly escalates into nuclear war.

I'm not saying appeasement was right in 1938, but there weren't nukes then.
And even then it took them to end it.

 

[CD Xbow]

I have little doubt that Farage would have been on the side of Hitler in WWII. At least one Reform candidate outright said that Britain should have been neutral in WWII. Reform is filled with bigots, many of whom would have felt right at home with the Nazis, and they'll feel right at home with Putin too.

Terrible. People have forgotten.

 

[Visions]

This is the exact point I'm making though.
Ukraine leading into a hot NATO/Russia conflict potentially allows these other conflicts to commence given the world's attention will be in Europe and China will take advantage.

Maybe this is all eniveitable. But I'm not happy about it.

On the flip side, giving Putin and Russia what they want in terms of Ukrainian territory will just embolden countries like China to go ahead and attack Taiwan, as they will know full well the West is weak and would give them a green light to obtain the same through genocidal tactics.

 

[jatz14]

Why so aggressive?

I'm a little sick of people coming here with their, they should all stop shooting and have a nice discussion over a coffee. This is what will happen if only the West wasn't full of warmongers supplying weapons.

Everyone who disagrees doesn't want peace like me.

Or.

Oh no, poor Ukrainians, look how they are suffering, we need to end this by completely ****ing them over and giving that nice misunderstood Putin everything he wants.

So, do you have anything that isn't a variation of, oh no, I hate war, they should have talks, or, let's not prolong this by providing Ukraine with weapons?


Personally, I think we need to escalate. Start providing air cover. Start having NATO intercept missiles.

I would have a declaration made, if Russian forces enter Kiev, Nato enters Ukraine.

Nothing drastically direct, but direct enough to send a signal, NATO will not let Russia win, ever.

That sets Putin a challenge, fight in Ukraine forever, with no prospect of victory, or come up with some realistic proposals for an exit.

He isn't fighting on because he thinks Ukraine will quit, he fights on thinking we quit.

The sooner we end that belief, the better.

I remember a quote from WW2.

They refused to risk war when the risk was small, and therefore made it inevitable.

The risk of avoiding risk, and letting this meander along for 3 more years is greater imoo.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jatz14]

To a degree.

WW1 was a direct result of a breakdown in communications and clear alliances leading to mass military build up. War was likely inevitable when all sides stopped looking for deescalation.
I see more similarities with WW1 then WW2.

Russia isn't building up. It's building down. Not voluntarily of course.

Putin isn't taking on NATO. Their whole doctrine was SAM systems to provide air denial while massed tanks and infantry overwhelm. With tactical nukes to pulverised defences.

But that isn't going to work.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Baldur]

I'm a little sick of people coming here with their, they should all stop shooting and have a nice discussion over a coffee. This is what will happen if only the West wasn't full of warmongers supplying weapons.

Everyone who disagrees doesn't want peace like me.

Or.

Oh no, poor Ukrainians, look how they are suffering, we need to end this by completely ****ing them over and giving that nice misunderstood Putin everything he wants.

So, do you have anything that isn't a variation of, oh no, I hate war, they should have talks, or, let's not prolong this by providing Ukraine with weapons?


Personally, I think we need to escalate. Start providing air cover. Start having NATO intercept missiles.

I would have a declaration made, if Russian forces enter Kiev, Nato enters Ukraine.

Nothing drastically direct, but direct enough to send a signal, NATO will not let Russia win, ever.

That sets Putin a challenge, fight in Ukraine forever, with no prospect of victory, or come up with some realistic proposals for an exit.

He isn't fighting on because he thinks Ukraine will quit, he fights on thinking we quit.

The sooner we end that belief, the better.

I remember a quote from WW2.

They refused to risk war when the risk was small, and therefore made it inevitable.

The risk of avoiding risk, and letting this meander along for 3 more years is greater imoo.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Well said, 100% agree.

 

[Baldur]

The Jeune École in action. It is not so much that they sink bigger more expensive ships, but they deny a stronger navy the ability to use sea power. Russia attempted a naval blockade of Ukrainian trade, it failed becouse the Russian Black Sea fleet cannot afford to patrol and board ships in the western black sea.

 

[rank and file]

The Jeune École in action. It is so much that they sink bigger more expensive ships, but they deny a stronger navy the ability to use sea power. Russia attempted a naval blockade of Ukrainian trade, it failed becouse the Russian Black Sea fleet cannot afford to patrol and board ships in the western black sea.

Russian navy managed to send over a few boats to Cuba for war games.
Their mate China flexing.
No rush.
6 month sea trial
US sleepwalking into disaster and dragging us all along.
Australia should tap out on the sub deal.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Not the news our Russian apologists want to hear

Ukraine says it destroyed Russian drone base

The warehouse seen in satellite images was used to launch Iranian-made Shahed drones and train people, Kyiv said.

www.bbc.co.uk

MSN

 

[Saint]

I'm not saying appeasement was right in 1938, but there weren't nukes then.
And even then it took them to end it.

Germany surrendered 3 months before nuclear bombs were dropped and they'd practically collapsed months before that.

Russians are not as fanatic as Japan folk in WW2. The Russian Government has a history of collapsing soon after military disaster. Only Zhukov talked Stalin out of giving up after Barbarossa started. This one won't be big enough, unless it drags on longer and longer and Putin sells more and more of the farm.

NATO or anyone doesn't seem remotely interested in war or regime change in Russia. As long as that is the case, nuclear war is completely avoided.

 

[jatz14]

Russian navy managed to send over a few boats to Cuba for war games.
Their mate China flexing.
No rush.
6 month sea trial
US sleepwalking into disaster and dragging us all along.
Australia should tap out on the sub deal.

Is this meant as a serious post, I genuinely cannot tell?

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jatz14]

Germany surrendered 3 months before nuclear bombs were dropped and they'd practically collapsed months before that.

Russians are not as fanatic as Japan folk in WW2. The Russian Government has a history of collapsing soon after military disaster. Only Zhukov talked Stalin out of giving up after Barbarossa started. This one won't be big enough, unless it drags on longer and longer and Putin sells more and more of the farm.

NATO or anyone doesn't seem remotely interested in war or regime change in Russia. As long as that is the case, nuclear war is completely avoided.

Even Japan didn't surrender because of nukes, they surrendered because Russia crushed their pretty insane hope that the massive Japanese presence in China would save them.

There had already been single bombing raids that killed more people and did more damage than the nukes did.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Baldur]

A year ago, Prigozhin launched his mutiny, Putin quickly reached a peace deal with him & then murdered him. Yet fools suggest Ukraine should make a peace deal with Putin.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Feel sorry that civilians are caught in this, but you have to be a special kind of stupid to have a vacation in a war zone.

Crimean beachgoers struck by deadly shrapnel shower from missile

Footage on Russian state television showed people running from a beach and some people being carried off on sun loungers.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Cap]

Assuming this is big.

 

[Saint]

Feel sorry that civilians are caught in this, but you have to be a special kind of stupid to have a vacation in a war zone.

Crimean beachgoers struck by deadly shrapnel shower from missile

Footage on Russian state television showed people running from a beach and some people being carried off on sun loungers.

www.theage.com.au

they were locals, one of the tragedies of war.

But, unlike Russia, Ukraine weren't aiming at the civilian area, Russia intercepted the missiles there.

 

[Saint]

Even Japan didn't surrender because of nukes, they surrendered because Russia crushed their pretty insane hope that the massive Japanese presence in China would save them.

There had already been single bombing raids that killed more people and did more damage than the nukes did.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

They only surrendered when they really had no other choice. People keep talking about negotiations like there should be some part of surrender by Ukraine. But they wont. So Putin has to be faced with "no other choice" but to retreat back to Russia. The world has to make it clear that occupation of parts of Ukraine will not be tolerated. Sanctions should be increased, and will remain as long as Russia occupies that land, even if there's a ceasefire.

Make it so that Putin has less and less choice.

Now that Modi has lost his majority, Putin might see less overt economic support from India or at least Modi won't be able to be so unabashed in his support for Putin.

 

[Visions]

More terrorist activities within Russia, just months after Crocus City Hall. Maybe Putin should look at his own backyard first and quell the rebellions there rather than focusing on territorial gains elsewhere.