Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[wannabejack]

Russian Dirt Bike Troops Are Dying By The Dozen As The Kremlin Doubles Down On Two-Wheeled Tactics

The more Russians ride into battle on motorcycles, the more Russians die while riding into battle on motorcycles.

www.forbes.com

More and more, vehicle-starved Russian commanders are sending their bike troops in direct assaults on Ukrainian positions.

There was some speculation this spring that Russia’s new bike tactics might actually help the Kremlin’s war effort—by making individual soldiers faster and harder to spot from the air.
In practice, the bike troops are hopelessly vulnerable to artillery and drones—and are dying in ever greater numbers. But with too few armored vehicles to go around, the Russians don’t have many alternatives.

 

[Zidane98]

Gee that's grim. Just send hordes of troops on motorbikes to their slaughter because they are out of armoured vehicles.

Cannon fodder. But all is going well according to some.....

 

[Aussie in exile]

This will irk Putin. Happy days.

MSN

 

[jatz14]

Apr 2024
NATO members have agreed to start planning military support for Ukraine on a long-term basis.
“What we are discussing is not a NATO combat presence in Ukraine. We are discussing how we can coordinate and deliver support from outside Ukraine to Ukraine as NATO allies do,”

And I believe the motive for this was the possibility of pro Russian politicians getting in, in Washington.

The US preemptively moving supplies and equipment under NATO, and out of the reach of Trump.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[wannabejack]

This will irk Putin. Happy days.

MSN

English is more useful than russian if you want to be a global citizen.

"As many as 80 percent of young Lithuanians professing English proficiency, and similar trends in the other Baltic states."
"30% of Poles speak English as a foreign language, making it the most popular second language in the country."

 

[Aussie in exile]

English is more useful than russian if you want to be a global citizen.

"As many as 80 percent of young Lithuanians professing English proficiency, and similar trends in the other Baltic states."
"30% of Poles speak English as a foreign language, making it the most popular second language in the country."

True of course, but Putin wanted everyone in Ukraine to have Russian as their first language.

 

[Zidane98]

True of course, but Putin wanted everyone in Ukraine to have Russian as their first language.

Putin also wanted everyone to have the Russian flag in Ukraine and make it a crime for anyone to wear yellow & blue.

 

[Visions]

This is someone I wish fell out of a Russian window. Just a waste of oxygen.

 

[jatz14]

Gee that's grim. Just send hordes of troops on motorbikes to their slaughter because they are out of armoured vehicles.

Cannon fodder. But all is going well according to some.....

Can you imagine what some on here would say if Ukrainians were going into battle on bicycles?

Also, word is that North Korea is sending engineering units to Ukraine.

And what the NKs are reportedly after is, the tech to put multiple independently targetable warheads in a ballistic missile.

This is going to piss of a lot of people if it happens, including China.

And of course, people are freaking out that this means NK will send troops, which doesn't automatically follow.

But if it does, I think this pulls the rug from those saying NATO cannot get involved.

I also think SK ramps up it's involvement.
If NK starts getting goodies from Putin, because he needs help fighting the exhausted Ukrainians, SK is going to make him pay.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Mobbs]

Footage of Ukrainian Mig-29 launching french Hammer Bombs. The youtuber describing the launch talks about the location, and the lack of flares.

 

[Baldur]

You sense a plan slowly suceeding as Russian forces are degraded and forced into defensive positions.

 

[barreness]

Iran, North Korea, India and China also have a say in Russia's decisions then? Without NK and Iran, Russia would be struggling. Without India and China, there would be total economic collapse in Russia.

Yes. The major difference being Russia buys their arms, Ukraine takes charity

If Ukraine are willing to fight, the west should supply the weapons. If they let Ukraine be taken, the Baltics and Central Asia don't stand a chance.

No. As far as the baltics because NATO, you think the 10,000 inexperienced infantry of the the Baltics would stand a chance? No one really wants them long term if we're honest

Central Asia has long been Russian vassal states, why would this change. Chinese money which they already get? would require another china-russia split

 

[barreness]

Ukraine, that is the only country to have made significant gains in over 2 years?

Russia holds 20% of Ukraine

Ukraine, that is still producing new brigades?

From press ganging the military aged males that haven't fleed

Ukraine, that is able to rotate troops off the front line for r and r because at no point have they been forced to put everything on the line?

Source?

Ukraine, that is still pulling from the approx 3000 Soviet era T64s left in the country and upgrading them, to the extent T64S can be, faster than they are being lost. They aren't even fully utilising all the agreements they have in place, to upgrade them?

So soviet era shit is cool as long as it's in Ukranian hands?

Ukraine, that is the defender, who's role is to stop the aggressor, an aggressor who hasn't been able to move to any meaningful extent in over 2 years?

Neither side has moved

I mean, Russia is the invader. Not making breakthroughs is a sign they cannot win, because they are the ones needing breakthroughs.

They hold territory that Ukraine demands back, that's the issue

If they don't get a breakthrough and force Ukraine from the battlefield, then they face spending eternity losing men and equipment in a foreign country.

It doesn't matter how stoik the Russians are, or how much under Putins thumb, that will get old eventually.

So stalemate? negotiations?

You keep saying that Ukraine is exhausted. What metric are you using here?

Press ganging, multiple conscriptions, asking western Europe to deport military aged males, multiple begging runs for NATO weapons, slowly losing ground on various fronts, no counter attacks for a year etc

Because as far as I can tell, that Ukraine asks for aid is the only metric you are using.

To me, a sign of sanity, and reality.
To you, a sign of weakness?

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

A sign of inevitability, unless we do WW3

 

[barreness]

This isn't my safe place at all, I have former work colleagues who are Ukranian with family in Kharkiv. They're terrified. The parallels are stark in every way.

I don't believe you

View attachment 2032606

Now sub in Israel/Netanyahu for Putin,

You should be consistent in your insanity

 

[barreness]

Can you imagine what some on here would say if Ukrainians were going into battle on bicycles?

Also, word is that North Korea is sending engineering units to Ukraine.

And what the NKs are reportedly after is, the tech to put multiple independently targetable warheads in a ballistic missile.

You just made that up. They will get missile tech but thats silly, literately the easiest bit

This is going to piss of a lot of people if it happens, including China.

Nah, they're giving it to both as part of the settling lines for WW3

And of course, people are freaking out that this means NK will send troops, which doesn't automatically follow.

Sending sappers, this counts as troops. NK will like this tbh, bit of experience under fire

But if it does, I think this pulls the rug from those saying NATO cannot get involved.

I thought they were a defensive alliance?

I also think SK ramps up it's involvement.
If NK starts getting goodies from Putin, because he needs help fighting the exhausted Ukrainians, SK is going to make him pay.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yeh they had too much fun in Vietnam, need to be fair about the murder things

 

[Mobbs]

"The Crimean Tatar language will appear in Google Translate. The company is preparing the largest expansion of its translator: 110 new languages will appear, including Crimean Tatar.
Ruslar, nahuy kiteŋiz. Crimea - Ukraine"
[Trukha Krim (Real Crimea) TG]

Would be cool to be able to check this out. I wonder if they'll add Sakha too, I'd been trying to teach it to myself for a few years now, but the guides are not extensive.

 

[Zidane98]

Russia holds 20% of Ukraine

From press ganging the military aged males that haven't fleed

Source?

So soviet era shit is cool as long as it's in Ukranian hands?

Neither side has moved

They hold territory that Ukraine demands back, that's the issue

So stalemate? negotiations?

Press ganging, multiple conscriptions, asking western Europe to deport military aged males, multiple begging runs for NATO weapons, slowly losing ground on various fronts, no counter attacks for a year etc

A sign of inevitability, unless we do WW3

 

[Aussie in exile]

Putins top banker gives him a warning about the Russian economy. Happy days.

MSN

 

[Mobbs]

There are reports of an S500 missile system in Kerch City providing protection to 'The Bridge'.

S-500 Prometheus Air Defense System Now Protecting Russia’s Kerch Bridge: Ukraine’s Spy Boss

Russia’s most advanced air defense system would add a major anti-ballistic missile defense bubble around the Crimean Peninsula.

www.twz.com

There had been reports over recent weeks of older Russian air defence systems being withdrawn from Crimea, the deployment of the S500 may be part of the reason. The other might be they were boing kaboom frequently. S500 provides longer range air defence as well as theatre ballistic missile defence. It will be interesting to see how Ukraine tries to overcome Russia's premier air defence system.

I guess your query might have got its anwer.

 

[Mobbs]

The Ukrainian counter-offensive in Vovchansk continues to slowly but methodically push the RF back towards the border in Kharkiv region.
Note that the title is slightly misleading - not so much "lost" as much as more like "kicked out".

The Russians May Have Lost An Entire Airborne Brigade In Vovchansk

Russia’s Victory Day offensive is turning into a bloodbath ... for Russian troops.

www.forbes.com

Ruzzia had to withdraw the main forces from Vovchansk under the pressure of Ukrainian counterattack.
[Denys Davydov TG]

 

[Zidane98]

Putin's big chance to push a victory was when the republicans were holding out on an aid package and European allies of Ukraine had not yet ramped up production to compensate.

It is very telling that the best he could do was pick up a little bit of extra territory at a,huge cost to Russia

Dynamic has changed now - US aid is starting to arrive. European nations have also ramped up their commitments. This is looking more like 2022 when Putin was chased out of Kherson & Lyman area. The entire cities celebrating the departure of Russian fascists making an absolute mockery of Putin's "referendums".

Putin has lost the war. There is no way Europeans are going to let another European nations be invaded because allowing that means an eventual war


It's now a question of how much Putin is prepared to lose before calling it quits. And the reality is a loss of central Asian states to China as vasall states is a very real possibility. This is likely China's geopolitical end game - becoming the dominant power in the region with the added bonus of Russia becoming a client state.

 

[wannabejack]

How the mighty have fallen. Under Putin, Russia is not only kowtowing to the undoubted power of Beijing, but now also comes as a supplicant to North Korea. For Kim this is an untold chance as he can demand a lot in exchange for unreliable ammunition and missiles with questionable accuracy - the latter still being an impressive feat for a country too poor to feed its own population. Kim must know that the Russians were willing to pay Russia's Iranian ally in gold for its Shahed-136 drones. He will drive a hard bargain for his support. But these are the kind of allies Russia has.

We aren't at that colossal wreck of Russia yet, so much is certain. This Summer will remain tough and the result of the American Presidential election can reshuffle the cards dramatically. But if Putin feels forced to come out of his protective shell and travel all the way to North Korea to look for help in a pariah state, he is not as confident of Russia's odds as he tries to project.

From:

Frederik Mertens on LinkedIn: How the mighty have fallen. Under Putin, Russia is not only kowtowing to…

How the mighty have fallen. Under Putin, Russia is not only kowtowing to the undoubted power of Beijing, but now also comes as a supplicant to North Korea. For…

www.linkedin.com

Edit: From another article.
What it does illustrate is that despite what Putin might like to portray, the longer Russia becomes embroiled in this war of attrition, they’ll become as dependent on external support as Ukraine.
Just to repeat : How the mighty have fallen.

 

[Cap]

I knew it wouldn't be long.

 

[Visions]

I knew it wouldn't be long.

They panicked bringing their only S500 system over to Crimea because their S400 were getting wiped out by ATACMS.

The S500 then gets wiped out by the same ATACMS missiles it was designed to destroy. Russian engineering at its best!

 

[RonSon]

Russia holds 20% of Ukraine

Not really a great claim to fame for the worlds second largest "super power".