Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

[Foxman98]

He kicked a set shot goal from 48m out against the Lions in the EF. Literally our most recent game discounts this whole point.

The one he kicked from inside 50 and struggled to make the distance?

 

[carlton_99]

The one he kicked from inside 50 and struggled to make the distance?

I said 48m out which is inside 50. You said he can't make the distance from 40m out and he did from 48m.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Watched plenty,

Your backline is held together by Weiterings brilliance his lack of AA blazers was a laugh,

Cripps is your whole midfield when Walsh isn't at 100% and your forwad line is heavily reliant on McKay and Curnow kicking all your goals case in point you had 5 other players kick 15 goals or more and 2 of them are no longer at your club

Incredible insight... Our 5 best players... Are 5 of our most important players...

Can't kick btw...

 

[Gavin Excell]

Yep I agree. Dear going down in preseason hasn't helped that. However we won't know how bad his problems are till January end and Mitch Lewis is flying in preseason. He looks fitter than he has ever been and may come back earlier than expected hopefully to have a better impact at the end of the year.

Edit: In the mean time we have swing men in Sicily Weddle and Battle that can fill the role till they come back

What's best timelines for Lewis? Can he be back after the first month?

 

[TheFourPillars]

What's best timelines for Lewis? Can he be back after the first month?

The timelines are hard to judge mate. Lewis will have his hand up in April, but it all depends on what the doctors and trainers think. Usually, we have been conservative and given every ACL at least 12 months. It will be interesting as ACL surgeries have improved a lot over the years. I think we might delay his return to June. That's conjecture and there is no certainty around that statement

 

[Blackhawk42]

Respectfully, in what way are Newcombe and Day 'more dynamic' than Cripps and Walsh who out perform them in almost every way.

Hewett and Worpel pretty much cancel one another out, both simple work horse inside mids.

Nash>Cerra? If Cerra stays on the park whatsoever he's comfortably the better player.

TDK = Meek... I like the big mountain so I'll say fair play, but I think most would acknowledge TDK has considerably more upside than Meek.

Walsh is a player who gets by on insane s work rate and footy smarts. He is, however, a midfielder and a midfielder only.

Will Day can play in every third on the ground, and is the most naturally gifted footballer of the 4 we're discussing.

I may be underrating Cripps somewhat, because he has the ability to push forward and be a marking threat.
However, despite not possessing the back catalogue of pure dominant performances like Patty, Newcombe is one of the more complete mids in the competition and is only just entering his prime years.
He can kick, mark overhead, tackle and accumulate.
The two also average basically the same amount of goals per game over their careers.
We aren't too far off Nuke kicking 20+ goals in a season and everybody realising he's capable as a forward as well.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Walsh is a player who gets by on insane s work rate and footy smarts. He is, however, a midfielder and a midfielder only.

Will Day can play in every third on the ground, and is the most naturally gifted footballer of the 4 we're discussing.

I may be underrating Cripps somewhat, because he has the ability to push forward and be a marking threat.
However, despite not possessing the back catalogue of pure dominant performances like Patty, Newcombe is one of the more complete mids in the competition and is only just entering his prime years.
He can kick, mark overhead, tackle and accumulate.
The two also average basically the same amount of goals per game over their careers.
We aren't too far off Nuke kicking 20+ goals in a season and everybody realising he's capable as a forward as well.

Wtf are they putting in the water down at Waverly??
Day is more naturally gifted than Cripps???

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

It must be asked, if Day and Newcombe are such talents, why have they never consistently put an All Australian type season together?

You can say age but realistically they still perform quite a margin below the best youngsters in the league around the same age or younger.

Sheezel, Daicos, Ashcroft, Walsh, Butters, Serong, Green, Gulden etc.

 

[TheFourPillars]

It must be asked, if Day and Newcombe are such talents, why have they never consistently put an All Australian type season together?

You can say age but realistically they still perform quite a margin below the best youngsters in the league around the same age or younger.

Sheezel, Daicos, Ashcroft, Walsh, Butters, Serong, Green, Gulden etc.

Mitchell's philosophy is to spread the load. If we has 8 players getting 20+ to him that is much better than 4 players getting 30+. Its not to say that Newk hasn't got 30+ but he does spend time forward

To give you an example
The game against Adelaide we won by 10 goals never really looked like loosing after qtr time.

Stats

AFL - News, Fixtures, Scores & Results - AFL.com.au

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www.afl.com.au

Note 9 of our midfield / wingman got 18 plus disposals. This way no one (2 or 3) players are required to carry the load for the rest of the team.

 

[carlton_99]

Mitchell's philosophy is to spread the load. If we has 8 players getting 20+ to him that is much better than 4 players getting 30+. Its not to say that Newk hasn't got 30+ but he does spend time forward

To give you an example
The game against Adelaide we won by 10 goals never really looked like loosing after qtr time.

Stats

AFL - News, Fixtures, Scores & Results - AFL.com.au

Australian Football League. All the latest AFL news, video, results and information

www.afl.com.au

Note 9 of our midfield / wingman got 18 plus disposals. This way no one (2 or 3) players are required to carry the load for the rest of the team.

I personally don't think disposals are a great stat for determining how well a teams spreads the load but as you used it I'll reply using that stat.

If you look at average disposals per game both Carlton and Hawthorn had 5 players that averaged 20+ disposals in 2024. Even at a lower threshold like 16+ disposals the teams were very similar (11* for Carlton and 12 for Hawthorn). So I'm not really seeing the difference between the two teams.

*It's actually 12 for Carlton but I'm not counting Lord as he only played two games.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Mitchell's philosophy is to spread the load. If we has 8 players getting 20+ to him that is much better than 4 players getting 30+

That's rubbish. A good player will produce regardless of whether their team is 'spreading the load'.

Geelong in 2022 was one of the most balanced teams you'll ever see and still had 5 All Australians produce dominant seasons for them.

Neither Day nor Newcombe have ever shown themselves to be in that top tier of players for their positions. They're just two very good players at this stage, but the best the Hawks have in the middle atm.

 

[Mr Meow]

I personally don't think disposals are a great stat for determining how well a teams spreads the load but as you used it I'll reply using that stat.

If you look at average disposals per game both Carlton and Hawthorn had 5 players that averaged 20+ disposals in 2024. Even at a lower threshold like 16+ disposals the teams were very similar (11* for Carlton and 12 for Hawthorn). So I'm not really seeing the difference between the two teams.

*It's actually 12 for Carlton but I'm not counting Lord as he only played two games.

Take top 3 or 5 disposal winners, divide it by total team disposals for the season. I have no idea what the results would be but that would be one better method to see if the disposal load is spread more in either club.

 

[TheFourPillars]

That's rubbish. A good player will produce regardless of whether their team is 'spreading the load'.

Geelong in 2022 was one of the most balanced teams you'll ever see and still had 5 All Australians produce dominant seasons for them.

Neither Day nor Newcombe have ever shown themselves to be in that top tier of players for their positions. They're just two very good players at this stage, but the best the Hawks have in the middle atm.

Geelong have notoriously good record of all Australians because the have been a good team for a long time. All australian teams generally get some favourtism for certain players and they always get picked regardless of how well they played and how many games they missed. It takes time for some players to build their names to be selected. If you haven't been making finals you have to be really exceptional like Sicily to get in. Our midfield philosophy has been to spread it though.

By the way. I spoke to u about impact before and about Day and you brushed it off. Shaun Burgoyne, Luke Hodge hardly ever made all australian all through our glory years but I can tell you if you asked many of their team mates who they would select in their team these two would be right up there. They never got many possessions consistently but they were impact players and did what was best for the team. Some times sacrificing personal glory for team. They were match winners. Day is one such player. He can play anywhere from the back line to the forward line.

For as long as I can remember the team ethos at Hawthorn has served them well. Thats why it was never about brownlow medals and all australians even though we won so many premierships.

 

[carlton_99]

Take top 3 or 5 disposal winners, divide it by total team disposals for the season. I have no idea what the results would be but that would be one better method to see if the disposal load is spread more in either club.

Hawks averaged 360.0 disposals per game in 2024. Carlton averaged 359.2 disposals per game.

Hawks top 5 average 111.3 disposals per game combined (30.9% of total team disposals).
Blues top 5 average 126.6 disposals per game combined (35.2% of total team disposals).

So a slight difference using top 5 and it reduces when you go to a top 10...

Hawks top 10 average 205.9 disposals per game combined (57.2% of total team disposals).
Blues top 10 average 216.8 disposals per game combined (60.4% of total team disposals).

 

[Thrawn]

Melbourne in 2023 - if they beat Collingwood in the Qualifying Final they become premiership favourites. They lost by 7 points.

GWS in 2024 - They beat Sydney in the Qualifying Final, they get a home Preliminary Final. They were 20 points up at 3/4 time and lost by a goal.

Both teams had a greater chance at contending for the premiership than Carlton did in 2023 for example, given the difficulty of Carlton's preliminary final match-up.

If if. It didn't happen though, so Melbourne had to play a SF and they lost. How does someone who was eliminated in the SF have a greater chance than a team who makes the PF and is highly competitive in it?

As for GWS, again, they didn't make the prelims. Choked massively in both finals - a top 4 team wouldn't do that. They were top four in 2023, sure, but giving away such massive leads detracts from being a top 4 side really.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Geelong have notoriously good record of all Australians because the have been a good team for a long time. All australian teams generally get some favourtism for certain players and they always get picked regardless of how well they played and how many games they missed. It takes time for some players to build their names to be selected. If you haven't been making finals you have to be really exceptional like Sicily to get in. Our midfield philosophy has been to spread it though.

By the way. I spoke to u about impact before and about Day and you brushed it off. Shaun Burgoyne, Luke Hodge hardly ever made all australian all through our glory years but I can tell you if you asked many of their team mates who they would select in their team these two would be right up there. They never got many possessions consistently but they were impact players and did what was best for the team. Some times sacrificing personal glory for team. They were match winners. Day is one such player. He can play anywhere from the back line to the forward line.

For as long as I can remember the team ethos at Hawthorn has served them well. Thats why it was never about brownlow medals and all australians even though we won so many premierships.

If you're trying to compare Will Day to Luke Hodge and Shaun Burgoyne I don't know what to tell you other than to put down the bongs. Just as ridiculous as comparing him to Cripps.

He's had 1 quality season in 2023 and really doesn't provide anything 'special' other than being a point of difference to the rest of your midfield. He's not Cyril who could do things no other players could, he's not Nat Fyfe or Dusty Martin or Dangerfield. He's a solid player who compliments your midfield mix by giving it some more outside run and class, which compliments the in and under work of Worpel and Newcombe.

Carlton seemed to always play loads better when Jack Martin and David Cuningham could get on the park. But you certainly won't find me sitting here telling anyone they're great players or anything of the sort. They complimented our other players well and thus helped balance the team. Simple as that.

 

[Fadge]

If if. It didn't happen though, so they had to play a SF and they lost. How does someone who was eliminated in the SF have a greater chance than a team who makes the PF and is highly competitive in it?

It depends what example you are alluding to.

Surely not GWS 2024 and Carlton 2023? (Which is the examples I used).

 

[TheFourPillars]

Hawks averaged 360.0 disposals per game in 2024. Carlton averaged 359.2 disposals per game.

Hawks top 5 average 111.3 disposals per game combined (30.9% of total team disposals).
Blues top 5 average 126.6 disposals per game combined (35.2% of total team disposals).

So a slight difference using top 5 and it reduces when you go to a top 10...

Hawks top 10 average 205.9 disposals per game combined (57.2% of total team disposals).
Blues top 10 average 216.8 disposals per game combined (60.4% of total team disposals).

I don't think it's about possessions to be honest because you don't know how effective they were in helping us or Carlton win.

 

[StillAtLarge]

Wtf are they putting in the water down at Waverly??
Day is more naturally gifted than Cripps???

Well he's faster, has better footskills (on both sides), has a huge vertical leap, can take a big mark, kick a goal and is generally far more versatile. He's nowhere near the dominant player Cripps is but in terms of natural talent I think Day is (at worst) comparable.
There are a lot of similarities between Day and James Hird, albeit Day has never had close to A grade level consistency (or been able to stay on the park regularly).
I do think he's an All Australian lock if he plays 20+ games though. His best footy is a step up from Newcombe and on a par with Sicily. This whole comparison might sound ridiculous but if you watched Hawthorn live at the ground most weeks you'd have an insight into how special a player Day will be

 

[TheFourPillars]

If you're trying to compare Will Day to Luke Hodge and Shaun Burgoyne I don't know what to tell you other than to put down the bongs. Just as ridiculous as comparing him to Cripps.

He's had 1 quality season in 2023 and really doesn't provide anything 'special' other than being a point of difference to the rest of your midfield. He's not Cyril who could do things no other players could, he's not Nat Fyfe or Dusty Martin or Dangerfield. He's a solid player who compliments your midfield mix by giving it some more outside run and class, which compliments the in and under work of Worpel and Newcombe.

Carlton seemed to always play loads better when Jack Martin and David Cuningham could get on the park. But you certainly won't find me sitting here telling anyone they're great players or anything of the sort. They complimented our other players well and thus helped balance the team. Simple as that.

So let it be written. I will ask you this question in 2 or 3 years time. Lets see if you change your opinion then but i doubt it because for you its about possessions and all australians. I have never paid attention to players getting loads of possessions because as far as I am concerned it's about their impact on the game and the team. HAHAHA at David Cunningham and Jack Martin. I am not sure you are going to get this but Will Day is what you call a High IQ player. In a similar vein to Hodge and Burgoyne. His impact on our side is well known to those who watched us play this year. For instance Sam Mitchell is a great player and was much more consistent accumulator. I would Pick Hodge and Burgoyne before Mitchell if picking a team.

That is the reason I still consider Bont to be the best player in the game ahead of Cripps and some of the others

 

[Mr Meow]

Hawks averaged 360.0 disposals per game in 2024. Carlton averaged 359.2 disposals per game.

Hawks top 5 average 111.3 disposals per game combined (30.9% of total team disposals).
Blues top 5 average 126.6 disposals per game combined (35.2% of total team disposals).

So a slight difference using top 5 and it reduces when you go to a top 10...

Hawks top 10 average 205.9 disposals per game combined (57.2% of total team disposals).
Blues top 10 average 216.8 disposals per game combined (60.4% of total team disposals).

Nice. We're talking about big overall numbers. I wouldn't be discounting 35.2% vs 30.9% as quite significantly different.

There isn't necessarily a right or wrong way to go about it, if we're talking about game plan. But it is fine to note it as a factor when we are comparing raw disposal averages between each sides top few midfielders, for example.

Some sides simply rotate more players through midfield, or their half forwards and half backs are de facto wingmen, or they expect their forward/back pockets to link up with the play more. It doesn't mean they have a stronger game plan. But it doesn't mean their best few ball winners are worse at finding the footy.

 

[peetoo]

That's rubbish. A good player will produce regardless of whether their team is 'spreading the load'.

Geelong in 2022 was one of the most balanced teams you'll ever see and still had 5 All Australians produce dominant seasons for them.

Neither Day nor Newcombe have ever shown themselves to be in that top tier of players for their positions. They're just two very good players at this stage, but the best the Hawks have in the middle atm.

I recall Worpel was second MVP the entire AFL earlier in 2024 champion data
He’s not even in this conversation

 

[Thrawn]

It depends what example you are alluding to.

Surely not GWS 2024 and Carlton 2023? (Which is the examples I used).

You were saying that Melbourne in 2023 were a greater chance at contending for a premiership, when they lost the SF.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Well he's faster, has better footskills (on both sides), has a huge vertical leap, can take a big mark, kick a goal and is generally far more versatile. He's nowhere near the dominant player Cripps is but in terms of natural talent I think Day is (at worst) comparable.
There are a lot of similarities between Day and James Hird, albeit Day has never had close to A grade level consistency (or been able to stay on the park regularly).
I do think he's an All Australian lock if he plays 20+ games though. His best footy is a step up from Newcombe and on a par with Sicily. This whole comparison might sound ridiculous but if you watched Hawthorn live at the ground most weeks you'd have an insight into how special a player Day will be

Good Lord...

Can kick a goal - Will Day has kicked 13 goals in his career. Cripps kicked more this year alone.

Can take a big mark - averages 0.3 contested marks a game. Cripps 0.6

Similarities with James Hird - Hird was 10x the player Day currently is, as is Cripps.

The hyperbole and drivel from Hawks fans about these two is neverending.

They're good players. They are not however, secretly transcendent superstars that nobody can truly comprehend because they're just that good.

Just utter dross.

 

[Kenny Hunter09]

Am I reading this right - there are Hawthorn supporters are saying that Newcombe and Day are in the same realm of talent as Patrick Cripps?