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If I recall correctly Newcombe selection was a bit dodgy (minimum wage/contact) and the AFLHQ changed the rules after that.2019 there were 13 players taken. Only 4 of those have played any significant amount of AFL games.
M Pickett, J Noble, R Gardner, W Snelling
2020 no MSD
2021 22 players were taken. Of those 10, 11 or 12 have played a significant amount of AFL games, depending what you define as significant.
J Newcombe, A Johnson, P Parnell, N Moyle, J Peatling, S Durham, M Parker, J McEntee, J Boyd, C Sharman, D Turner
2022 17 players were taken. Of those probably 7 have played significant games or shown decent promise.
J Culley, K Dawson, M D'Ambrosio, J Carmichael, J Bauer, J Menzie, J Blanck
2023 just 13 players were taken. Of those the following have shown some promise, but still early days: R Maric, M Coulthard, J Trezise.
So we can see in 2021 there was a lot taken after all the COVID lockdowns. We were a bit stiff to be higher on the ladder than where we finished the season, otherwise we get Durham almost for certain. But there were still decent players taken after our pick.
In all 3 other msd's we can see you are probably looking at 2-3 x 100 game players at best.
Overall by far the best so far have been M Pickett, J Newcombe, S Durham, but Boyd, McEntee, Noble, Peatling, D'Ambrosio have either held down a best 22 position for an extended period or look well capable of doing so. And there are some other promising guys.
I would assume we will be looking at 2-3 players in the 19-23yo age range and unless there is someone available who just appeals as a really good player, we will be looking at guys with possible upside that the club can effectively trial for half a season and unload if they don't look like making the grade. With pick 2 just about sewn up there might be a chance of getting a ready made player, but otherwise I would think the club will be very speculative with these picks.