Prediction 2024 - Best 23 + Emergencies - Rolling

[marcmurphy3]

A bit of a pipe dream considering it'll never happen but reckon our best 23 (or 24) has become obvious.

B: Newman Weitering McGovern
HB: Saad Marchbank Williams
C: Acres Cripps Docherty
HF: Fogarty McKay E.Hollands
F: Motlop Curnow Martin
OB: Pittonett Cerra Walsh
IC: Boyd Hewett Cotrell Owies
Sub: Kennedy

Very very unlucky (hence best 24): TDK (He's a gun but our clearance game is just so much better with Pittonett in the team and there are better forwards).

Weakest Position Marchbank: We need to upgrade this spot and find someone more durable asap

 

[JustOneTime]

A bit of a pipe dream considering it'll never happen but reckon our best 23 (or 24) has become obvious.

B: Newman Weitering McGovern
HB: Saad Marchbank Williams
C: Acres Cripps Docherty
HF: Fogarty McKay E.Hollands
F: Motlop Curnow Martin
OB: Pittonett Cerra Walsh
IC: Boyd Hewett Cotrell Owies
Sub: Kennedy

Very very unlucky (hence best 24): TDK (He's a gun but our clearance game is just so much better with Pittonett in the team and there are better forwards).

Weakest Position Marchbank: We need to upgrade this spot and find someone more durable asap

Like it. Particularly the ruck setup.

I'd look at swapping Pitto with TDK week to week. I too prefer Mckay as backup ruck like Daniher to allow us extra defence on turnover footy.

I feel our backline is made up of interceptors and qtr backs with no one being strong body one-on-one except Weitering. For balance, i'd personally opt for Cincotta or Cowan (whichever is in best form at the time) in place of Newman. Newman is slow/weak defensively when you notice how fast/powerful small opposition fwds are. We lose Newmans inside 50 kick but i think the defensive benefits offset that. Boyd, Williams, Saad, Mcgovern can all provide Newman's kick.

I personally think JSoS makes the side over Owies for utility. Cottrell, Motlop, Fogarty, Martin can represent the small forwards well enough. We are a stupid side so JSoS adds better decision making on positioning.

 

[macky99]

A bit of a pipe dream considering it'll never happen but reckon our best 23 (or 24) has become obvious.

B: Newman Weitering McGovern
HB: Saad Marchbank Williams
C: Acres Cripps Docherty
HF: Fogarty McKay E.Hollands
F: Motlop Curnow Martin
OB: Pittonett Cerra Walsh
IC: Boyd Hewett Cotrell Owies
Sub: Kennedy

Very very unlucky (hence best 24): TDK (He's a gun but our clearance game is just so much better with Pittonett in the team and there are better forwards).

Weakest Position Marchbank: We need to upgrade this spot and find someone more durable asap

TDK is in our best team without doubt.
Pitto has been solid, but only one win since he has been back, yes he helps in some aspects, but the extra mobility by going with TDk and Mckay also has some upside.

 

[Soapy V]

Get this side on the park and we can win it all:

B: Boyd Durdin McGovern
HB: Cincotta Weitering Saad
C: Acres Cripps Williams
HF: E.Hollands McKay Motlop
F: Martin TDK Charlie
Foll: Pittonet Kennedy Walsh
Int: Newman Cerra Hewett Owies
Sub: Cuningham/Cottrell

Williams up onto Wing
More run
Not convinced on 2 ruck situation?
Defence has run and good ball use
Multiple goal kicking options

 

[bradfisher14]

I wanted to hold off on raising this until we had a big enough sample size, but I think we've reached that point now.

I know he's in career best form, but I just can't see Pitto in our best 23 if we're really going to make an impact this season. For me, I view him as a high level back up to TDK and someone we can bring in against teams like Melbourne/Fremantle that require more help in the ruck department. This isn't about him personally but rather is an assessment of team structure when he's in the side. The TL;DR of this is we should play TDK and Harry in the ruck from now on.

We are a team that lacks natural pace across the park. This means that we need to fit in as many of our quick/endurance types as possible each week to make up for it. Otherwise we struggle in what I believe are the most important factors of the modern game: applying pressure and both phases on transition. We did this well across the first 4 games of the season by playing TDK and Harry in the ruck. From memory we were ranked 3rd in the comp on transition by Champion Data during that time and we had won every game.

Since we have brought Pitto into the team our lack of pace around the ground is getting exposed badly. We can't defend or score well enough on turnover. We can't apply adequate pressure around clearance or the rest of the ground. Another point to consider is that TDK and Harry's form have gone down since changing their roles. Quite simply, we aren't able to compete with the best teams when we have this many tall players in the side. We're 2-4 and have dropped out of the 8 for the first time this season. I don't have the data to know if we're winning clearances or hit outs across the six games Pitto has been in the team. However, even if we are I don't believe that winning in those stats will lead to winning games. History shows that you need to be top 3 in the league in turnover to win the flag and we can't do that with the team structure as it is right now.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

I wanted to hold off on raising this until we had a big enough sample size, but I think we've reached that point now.

I know he's in career best form, but I just can't see Pitto in our best 23 if we're really going to make an impact this season. For me, I view him as a high level back up to TDK and someone we can bring in against teams like Melbourne/Fremantle that require more help in the ruck department. This isn't about him personally but rather is an assessment of team structure when he's in the side. The TL;DR of this is we should play TDK and Harry in the ruck from now on.

We are a team that lacks natural pace across the park. This means that we need to fit in as many of our quick/endurance types as possible each week to make up for it. Otherwise we struggle in what I believe are the most important factors of the modern game: applying pressure and both phases on transition. We did this well across the first 4 games of the season by playing TDK and Harry in the ruck. From memory we were ranked 3rd in the comp on transition by Champion Data during that time and we had won every game.

Since we have brought Pitto into the team our lack of pace around the ground is getting exposed badly. We can't defend or score well enough on turnover. We can't apply adequate pressure around clearance or the rest of the ground. Another point to consider is that TDK and Harry's form have gone down since changing their roles. Quite simply, we aren't able to compete with the best teams when we have this many tall players in the side. We're 2-4 and have dropped out of the 8 for the first time this season. I don't have the data to know if we're winning clearances or hit outs across the six games Pitto has been in the team. However, even if we are I don't believe that winning in those stats will lead to winning games. History shows that you need to be top 3 in the league in turnover to win the flag and we can't do that with the team structure as it is right now.

No other team in the comp could cover the loss in player stocks we are currently experiencing....

Saad missing from the backline is massive, ditto that Williams has lost his mojo....

Think it's impossible to really gauge things like Pitto or TDK when so many are missing....

 

[Arr0w]

Picking best 23 is always difficult as those last 6 spots is just opinion or preference, as well as a player's primary starting position

Most would have the same ish 16 players, then another 12 or so in contention for 6 spots

What has always been clear, is every one of our injury prone players are in that list of 28 players, most in best 23

Continuity is gold in team sport, so we need to replace the majority of these types end of year, remaining end of 2025

 

[GoBlues!]

Get this side on the park and we can win it all:

B: Boyd Durdin McGovern
HB: Cincotta Weitering Saad
C: Acres Cripps Williams
HF: E.Hollands McKay Motlop
F: Martin TDK Charlie
Foll: Pittonet Kennedy Walsh
Int: Newman Cerra Hewett Owies
Sub: Cuningham/Cottrell

Williams up onto Wing

B: Newman Weitering Kemp
HB: Boyd McGovern Saad
C: Cincotta Cripps Acres
HF: Cerra McKay Williams
F: Motlop Charlie Owies
Foll: Pittonet Kennedy Walsh
Int: Cowan Elijah TDK Fogarty
Sub: Hewett

Don’t think Williams has the endurance to play wing. May be worth persevering at HF, especially if he can produce that tackling effort on Blakey and also kick goals.

If Martin is fit he’d be in the 22, but I’m starting to resign to the possibility his body may not be resilient enough when we need him.

The MC would probably prefer Hewett over Cowan. However I’ve opted for Cowan who can bring some physically and run which we need, with Cottrell out.

Of the highlighted players out, Saad and Cerra will make a huge difference. Fogarty and Motlop should come in and would contribute more to the team than Fantasia and Corey.

 

[carlton_99]

Defence: Weitering/McGovern/Kemp matchup fairly well against most tall forward set up in the competition. I personally don't think we need a proper lockdown key defender alongside Weitering. Saad, Newman and Boyd will be our main distributors off HB with Cincotta showing himself to be a really good small lockdown defender.

Midfield: Kind of picks itself in my opinion - Walsh and Cerra need to be at as many CBAs as possible with Cripps/Hewett complementing them with more inside-suited games. Fogarty and E.Hollands should also be getting some significant midfield rotations. Kennedy as the sub adds another.

Ruck: Just gone with the one ruck and McKay to help out. I really like Pittonet and think he has probably been the better ruck this season but long term I do think one ruck is the way to go. TDK having the versatility to go forward puts him just ahead imo.

Forward: Two key forwards pick themselves and I have gone with Jack Martin

19

Jack Martin

Age

29

Ht

186cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.7

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.9

4star

K

7.9

3star

HB

7.0

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

3.6

4star

G

1.1

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.6

3star

as the #3 option - however given his injury history it could also be JSOS. In terms of smalls I think Motlop and Fogarty are the ideal combination - Motlop can find the goals and Fogarty is really important for forward pressure and also adding to midfield rotations. E.Hollands/Cottrell round out the forward line quite nicely and add a bit of versatility with Hollands able to go into the midfield and Cottrell able to push to the wing if we want Doc on ball.

 

[JuddgementDay]

I'm going to assume all our short term injured players are available

B: Boyd Weitering Kemp
HB: Cincotta McGovern Saad
C: Acres Cripps O.Hollands
HF: E.Hollands McKay Motlop
F: Martin Charlie Williams
Foll: TDK Walsh Hewett
Int: Newman Cerra Owies Kennedy
Sub: Cottrell

 

[Coona Blues]

I'm going to assume all our short term injured players are available

B: Boyd Weitering Kemp
HB: Cincotta McGovern Saad
C: Acres Cripps O.Hollands
HF: E.Hollands McKay Motlop
F: Martin Charlie Williams
Foll: TDK Walsh Hewett
Int: Newman Cerra Owies Kennedy
Sub: Cottrell

Nice, but I reckon it needs more Fogarty and not sure a fit Cotts is the sub.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

I'm going to assume all our short term injured players are available

B: Boyd Weitering Kemp
HB: Cincotta McGovern Saad
C: Acres Cripps O.Hollands
HF: E.Hollands McKay Motlop
F: Martin Charlie Williams
Foll: TDK Walsh Hewett
Int: Newman Cerra Owies Kennedy
Sub: Cottrell

Cowan over Cincotta for me. Don't want to see him playing 2s ever again he's a long term player.

Cincotta looks more valuable up the ground.

 

[Coona Blues]

Cowan over Cincotta for me. Don't want to see him playing 2s ever again he's a long term player.

Cincotta looks more valuable up the ground.

Just shows that if we have a healthy list we can’t fit them all in, and that is excluding our two LTI staples.

Pitto hard done by too as is absolutely fair to consider “best 22/23”

Becomes horses for courses, and perhaps a little rotation.

 

[JuddgementDay]

Just shows that if we have a healthy list we can’t fit them all in, and that is excluding our two LTI staples.

Pitto hard done by too as is absolutely fair to consider “best 22/23”

Becomes horses for courses, and perhaps a little rotation.

Yeah, I can’t fit in Fogarty, Cowan, Marchbank nor Pitto - someone will be hard done by

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Just shows that if we have a healthy list we can’t fit them all in, and that is excluding our two LTI staples.

Pitto hard done by too as is absolutely fair to consider “best 22/23”

Becomes horses for courses, and perhaps a little rotation.

Having 30 best 22 players puts us in a good spot

 

[Azzurro]

Boyd Weitering Newman
McGovern Kemp/Young Saad

Pitto Cerra Walsh
Acres Cripps Doc

Williams Curnow Martin
Motlop McKay C Durdin

INT: TDK Marchbank Cottrell Hewett

EMG: Cowan Kennedy Hollands Silvagni

Stiff/In contention Fogarty Owies Cuningham Cincotta

The rest

Boyd has been a lock for me for some time.

Young will fight hard to regain his position, Kemp will improve. One or the other will start

Kennedy will probably be starting 22, but where and for who

Once again i have Jsos out of the side, but keeps putting his hand up

Williams would be the perfect forward/midfielder, but after doing a knee, club will probably start him behind the ball

Saw enough of Cowan to suggest he could lock in a position next year if he has a big preseason

Also backing in little Durdin to take a spot if he gets his body right

The 8 players, emergencies and in contention are pretty decent

Could we see a surprise in Binns or Carroll? Who knows, but it's exciting

Also based on Dow and Fisher being elsewhere next year

Nice prediction Arr0w , you called Williams forward very early.

By way of comparison and for no particular reason, here's my version at a similar time of year (post draft and trade):

November 2023 post draft best 23

Saad Weitering Newman
Williams McGovern Marchbank

O.Hollands Walsh Acres
DeKoning Cripps Cerra

E.Hollands McKay Martin
Motlop Curnow Fantasia

Moir JSOS Boyd Docherty

Sub: Kennedy

Emg: Hewett Cottrell Kemp Cuningham

I love Kennedy but I actually think he's the perfect sub - an impact player who can plug holes, hurt bodies and take full advantage of opposition fatigue later in games.

Not enough love for Fog, no idea how I missed him. Not enough for Cotters either. Kemp was in the squad but replaces Marchbank easily in that 23 now.

Too much optimism for Moir, picked Fantasia but would change that now.

Doch and JSOS in my 23 The impact of missing these 2 is far too easily ignored by the average punter, Carlton and non-Carlton alike.

And for completeness, here's my latest version based on exposed form:

June 2024 best 23 (excluding only long term injuries)

Kemp Weitering Saad
Newman McGovern Boyd

O.Hollands Walsh Acres
TDK Cripps Cerra

E.Hollands McKay Fogarty
Williams Charlie Martin

Cincotta Cottrell Hewett Cowan

Sub: Kennedy

Emg: Owies Pittonet Carroll Motlop

Hewett is at risk based on recent form, but there's no obvious replacement unless we throw Elijah into permanent mid and bring in another forward like Owies or go for dual ruck again (I'm not a fan of that system though).

If Motlop finds form, he is a lock and we will shuffle magnets.

Our depth doesn't feel as impressive as previous years, without the LTI JSOS and Doch as well as Dow and Fisher, especially given none of the new draftees (Moir et al) have stepped up.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Newman. Weitering. Boyd.
Saad. Marchbank. McGovern.
Acres. Cripps. O Hollands.
E Hollands. McKay. Martin.
Williams. Curnow. Fogarty.
R. TDK. Cerra. Walsh.
I. Kennedy. Hewett. Cottrell. Cincotta.
E. Kemp.
E. Carroll. Pittonett. Cuningham. Motlop. Cowan.

LTI. Docherty. JSOS.

 

[JustOneTime]

Going into this last stretch, this is how I hope it pans out...

Boyd Weitering McGovern
Cowan Marchbank* Saad
Acres Cripps O Hollands
E Hollands McKay Motlop
Williams Curnow Fogarty
R TDK* Cerra Walsh
I. Newman Martin* Cincotta Hewett*

• Hewett vs Kennedy for a spot on the bench. See more in Hewett as an out and out midfielder. Kennedy getting caught between two skillsets (fwd/mid)
• TDK to play with Mckay leaving us a much faster side and more able to defend rebound transition (and area we always need to focus on). Pitto only play to give TDK a rest.
• Marchbank vs Kemp. I keep looking at Marchbank in hope. Kemp can intercept mark but in most games like vs Bombers, he loses body on body most times. Kemp 75% of time needs a free jump at the ball to win. Marchbank is simply a prayer bet here to be better than Kemp because the side needs one more better defender (we have loads of interceptors and rebounders). Agree that Marchbank might not be better but we just haven't found out properly
• Cant fit Cottrell in win Cerra/Motlop coming back and Martin preferred in a final series
• Martin is like Marchbank. Want him but with Williams/E Hollands getting the job done, we don't have to be desperate on him getting back now. But if he was to come back roaring, jeez we'd have a nice finals side.
• Cincotta in current form is a lock
• An inform Cerra and motlop is a no brainer and im just assuming they get there in time for finals

Really like Voss closing down the 1-2 best opposition dangers as we have the personnel to do it through Cincotta/Cowan.

• The keys to our recent form have been re-intriducing McGovern/Saad into our defence. Metres gained from both of those two plus Saad's outstanding defensive taps/closing down abilities
• Cincotta adding speed to our midfield along with closing down an opposition player (SPEED/STRENGTH on ball)
• Playing one ruck allowing more speed in defending the oppositions transition game (a previous 'significant' weakness)

We've got a shot!!

 

[GoBlues!]

With pressure on positions increasing we need to objectively look at players performance and form..

A great first season Ollie Hollands output has significantly dropped off this year. With an average of 12.4 disposals in 12 games this year is this good enough to warrant a best 22 position?

 

[CCurnow3votes]

With pressure on positions increasing we need to objectively look at players performance and form..

A great first season Ollie Hollands output has significantly dropped off this year. With an average of 12.4 disposals in 12 games this year is this good enough to warrant a best 22 position?

View attachment 2019924

Although Ollie’s output looks to have improved over recent weeks, all going well I can’t see him holding a spot once others return to the team.

His weakness over the ball and inability to bring players to ground in a tackle won’t cut it.

Cotters replaces his two-way run on a wing - add goal kicking, ability to tackle & shut down, also a disposal efficiency upgrade.

IMVHO.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Backs:	Brodie Kemp	Jacob Weitering	Nic Newman
Half-backs:	Adam Saad	Mitch McGovern	Jordan Boyd
Centreline:	Matt Cottrell	Patrick Cripps	Blake Acres
Half-forwards:	Jack Martin	Charlie Curnow	Alex Cincotta
Forwards:	Elijah Hollands	Harry McKay	Zac Williams
Followers:	Tom De Koning	Sam Walsh	Adam Cerra
Interchange:	Lachie Cowan	Jesse Motlop
	Lachie Fogarty	George Hewett
Sub:	Ollie Hollands

From the team that played last week:
In - Cerra, Motlop, Cottrell, Martin
Out - Kennedy, Carroll, Durdin, Owies

 

[SurreyBlue]

Backs:	Brodie Kemp	Jacob Weitering	Nic Newman
Half-backs:	Adam Saad	Mitch McGovern	Jordan Boyd
Centreline:	Matt Cottrell	Patrick Cripps	Blake Acres
Half-forwards:	Jack Martin	Charlie Curnow	Alex Cincotta
Forwards:	Elijah Hollands	Harry McKay	Zac Williams
Followers:	Tom De Koning	Sam Walsh	Adam Cerra
Interchange:	Lachie Cowan	Jesse Motlop
	Lachie Fogarty	George Hewett
Sub:	Ollie Hollands

From the team that played last week:
In - Cerra, Motlop, Cottrell, Martin
Out - Kennedy, Carroll, Durdin, Owies

Ollie beats Matt every time in the 22.

Matt Cottrell and Oliver Hollands AFL Stats Comparison

Matt Cottrell and Oliver Hollands AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Ollie beats Matt every time in the 22.

Matt Cottrell and Oliver Hollands AFL Stats Comparison

Matt Cottrell and Oliver Hollands AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

It's a close call but I think Cotts brings a bit more in a few areas including scoreboard impact and being stronger over the ball. Love what Ollie does too.

 

[TENACIOUS]

FB:	.........	Weitering	Newman
HB:	.........	McGovern	Saad
C:	Acres	Cripps	.........
FOL:	TDK	Cerra	Walsh
HF:	.........	Curnow	Martin
FF:	Motlop	McKay	.........
Hollands	Docherty	.........	.........

IMO the above 15 would be our non negotiable locks...
Then we fill the remaining 7 spots from the rest of the list after trade week and/or pre-season....

Mid year update - If all were fit…

FB:	Kemp	Weitering	Newman
HB:	Boyd	McGovern	Saad
C:	Acres	Cripps	Cottrell
FOL:	TDK	Cerra	Walsh
HF:	E.Hollands	Curnow	Fogarty
FF:	Motlop	McKay	Williams
BENCH:	Docherty	Cincotta	Martin
	Cowan	SUB:	Kennedy/Owies

 

[Pinnell]

Going into this last stretch, this is how I hope it pans out...

Boyd Weitering McGovern
Cowan Marchbank* Saad
Acres Cripps O Hollands
E Hollands McKay Motlop
Williams Curnow Fogarty
R TDK* Cerra Walsh
I. Newman Martin* Cincotta Hewett*

• Hewett vs Kennedy for a spot on the bench. See more in Hewett as an out and out midfielder. Kennedy getting caught between two skillsets (fwd/mid)
• TDK to play with Mckay leaving us a much faster side and more able to defend rebound transition (and area we always need to focus on). Pitto only play to give TDK a rest.
• Marchbank vs Kemp. I keep looking at Marchbank in hope. Kemp can intercept mark but in most games like vs Bombers, he loses body on body most times. Kemp 75% of time needs a free jump at the ball to win. Marchbank is simply a prayer bet here to be better than Kemp because the side needs one more better defender (we have loads of interceptors and rebounders). Agree that Marchbank might not be better but we just haven't found out properly
• Cant fit Cottrell in win Cerra/Motlop coming back and Martin preferred in a final series
• Martin is like Marchbank. Want him but with Williams/E Hollands getting the job done, we don't have to be desperate on him getting back now. But if he was to come back roaring, jeez we'd have a nice finals side.
• Cincotta in current form is a lock
• An inform Cerra and motlop is a no brainer and im just assuming they get there in time for finals

Really like Voss closing down the 1-2 best opposition dangers as we have the personnel to do it through Cincotta/Cowan.

• The keys to our recent form have been re-intriducing McGovern/Saad into our defence. Metres gained from both of those two plus Saad's outstanding defensive taps/closing down abilities
• Cincotta adding speed to our midfield along with closing down an opposition player (SPEED/STRENGTH on ball)
• Playing one ruck allowing more speed in defending the oppositions transition game (a previous 'significant' weakness)

We've got a shot!!

Ollie Hollands replaced by Cotts and I’m on board