Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

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bombreys said:
Think you’ve gone a bit over the top here - Merrett and Heppell are the only two players (excl Goldy) to have played 200 on our list. Playing 200 is a big effort.

Suggesting those 6 (5 of which can’t get a game in a side outside of the top 8) is an enormous and unrealistic call
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It’s less of an effort to get to 200 games then it used to be thanks to better sports science/medicine.

There are currently 5 players on the list that have played >200 games including Stringer and Sheil.

Most of the better sides have closer to 10. Not all are stars some of them are just guys who have managed to be good enough to get picked most games for 9-10 years.

Using the word Established with Jones and the wing position feels a bit strong. But I’ve liked the way he’s played in a “he’s the 18th player picked every week” kind of way. He’s still working out how to play the position but I think he’s an average AFL standard player that shouldn’t command a big contract over his career but should get consistent games for a long time.

If the average mid first round pick plays 100 games at average AFL standard and any of Jones/Perkins/cox/whoever plays 200 games they are basically making themselves worth 1 FRP due to durability and not having to be replaced which is pretty cool.


I like Jones on the wing and think He, Martin and Dursma is looking like a set and forget wing trio for a good while health permitting.

(I don’t like Cox there. Think he much more a KPP and should bulk up. )

Means we can focus our attention at other positions which is nice. (Although we do badly need some backup flankers should any of that trio get injured. )


Re Parish. If you were to move him I think a player for player swap is the most likely way he gets moved. Trading good players for draft pics feels like a sell low unless you get multiple picks
 
jdstorm said:
It’s less of an effort to get to 200 games then it used to be thanks to better sports science/medicine.

There are currently 5 players on the list that have played >200 games including Stringer and Sheil.

Most of the better sides have closer to 10. Not all are stars some of them are just guys who have managed to be good enough to get picked most games for 9-10 years.
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Yep. Also players get games at 18-19 years old because they are top draft picks and could be great when they're 25 whereas in old days they'd be cutting their teeth in the reserves.

They get 50 games these days just to see what they've got. List sizes are also small so players often play before they're ready due to others getting injured.
jdstorm said:
Using the word Established with Jones and the wing position feels a bit strong. But I’ve liked the way he’s played in a “he’s the 18th player picked every week” kind of way. He’s still working out how to play the position but I think he’s an average AFL standard player that shouldn’t command a big contract over his career but should get consistent games for a long time.

If the average mid first round pick plays 100 games at average AFL standard and any of Jones/Perkins/cox/whoever plays 200 games they are basically making themselves worth 1 FRP due to durability and not having to be replaced which is pretty cool.


I like Jones on the wing and think He, Martin and Dursma is looking like a set and forget wing trio for a good while health permitting.

(I don’t like Cox there. Think he much more a KPP and should bulk up. )

Means we can focus our attention at other positions which is nice. (Although we do badly need some backup flankers should any of that trio get injured. )


Re Parish. If you were to move him I think a player for player swap is the most likely way he gets moved. Trading good players for draft pics feels like a sell low unless you get multiple picks
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Yeah I wouldn't have thought Jones is established just yet. He is almost being squeezed in and a role found for him at the moment due to okay form, which is a credit to him, but he could easily drop out if his form drops even slightly.
 

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yodellinhank said:
Yep. Also players get games at 18-19 years old because they are top draft picks and could be great when they're 25 whereas in old days they'd be cutting their teeth in the reserves.

They get 50 games these days just to see what they've got. List sizes are also small so players often play before they're ready due to others getting injured.

Yeah I wouldn't have thought Jones is established just yet. He is almost being squeezed in and a role found for him at the moment due to okay form, which is a credit to him, but he could easily drop out if his form drops even slightly.
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See I disagree with this.

I think the wing thing is a happy accident that in hindsight just makes perfect sense.

He’s got a big tank, a faster top speed than you’d think. Also surprisingly good ball use for his height due to a late growth spurt. Not great in a one on one marking contest (unless he has a significant height advantage which he often gets on the wing) and prefers to fly from the side as third man up. Which he is now doing both offensively and defensively.

His positioning is still a work in progress, but in general I think the good outweighs the bad and think he should come back next season with a good understanding of how to play the position and if you keep the good stuff while minimising the bad I think the probability that it all works out is pretty good.
 


Would we have a look?

They’d ask for a first round pick so I lean towards no but he’s a super talent when on.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
footyfanatic111 said:


Would we have a look?

They’d ask for a first round pick so I lean towards no but he’s a super talent when on.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
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Not for the price WC will ask. Would rather take Berry with the pick Ryan would cost.

And his hammies scare the shit out of me.
 

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BIG SHOW said:
Just wondering if someone can give me an update on Darren Bewick son, how is he tracking and when is he eligible for the draft?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
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2027 draft eligible, going well. Someone on the draft board had him late teens at the moment but will rise over the next two years
 
Vindicater said:
If we lose Hobbs I will spew.
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I rate him in his natural inside role, is he any chance to get that shot next year? Parish, Durham, Caldwell and Merrett clearly ahead. Perkins, Tsatas and Hobbs trying to fight their way in.

It's an ok problem to have, but if Hobbs is playing VFL or half forward in 2025, he'll walk very cheaply end of next season.
 
Milanista28 said:
I rate him in his natural inside role, is he any chance to get that shot next year? Parish, Durham, Caldwell and Merrett clearly ahead. Perkins, Tsatas and Hobbs trying to fight their way in.

It's an ok problem to have, but if Hobbs is playing VFL or half forward in 2025, he'll walk very cheaply end of next season.
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Its a tough decision. I genuinely think hobbsy will come good. Hes a gun, and we need more blokes like him in our team. I think merrett should play some more outside, durham and caldwell are great distributors, and let hobbsy do the grunt work. Parish should be traded, not because hes shit, but because hes surplus to our needs and i think Ben hobbs in 2-3 years will offer us a lot more than Parish (on and off the field)
 
doug85 said:
Not for the price WC will ask. Would rather take Berry with the pick Ryan would cost.

And his hammies scare the shit out of me.
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Agree . we would be spending next years draft capital to do it as well.
 
Hobbs looks like he has potential but he's also a small inside mid (which we have a number of ahead of him) with limited flexibility to play other roles. Essendon fans are notorious for rating our own too highly - if we can get something good for him (possibly a late first?) I reckon it's a good opportunity for us to fill bigger needs
 
Bunk Moreland said:
Long post alert

Wasn't sure whether to start a new thread on this... It's really about list management, but looking at our draft profile it's becoming increasingly obvious that we may have a BIG problem on our hands in coming years... Unless we get some rapid improvement out of our recent high draft picks, it's going to leave a mammoth hole in our list.

The classic example is Hawthorn, when Clarko decided he could completely abandon the draft and drove their list into a massive hole. It necessitated a cleanout of O'Meara, Mitchell and others as they went scorched earth... Though they have recovered quickly, seemingly thanks in large part to Mitchell's coaching https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/can-hawthorn-succeed-while-ignoring-the-elite-end-of-the-draft.1207618/

The old first and second rounds (before all the extra compo picks blew it out) is the only place you can get elite talent cheap. Trades cost a lot. I look at the Top 40 picks. Here's us:

2017: Nothing
2018: Mosquito (delisted)
2019: Jones, Bryan
2020: Cox, Perkins, Reid, Eyre (delisted)
2021: Hobbs
2022: Tsatas, Hayes

We didn't totally abandon the draft, but at the top level we had a six-year run of possibly horrific draft decisions at the pointy end.

There's no getting around the fact that from those six national drafts, we have ONE player (Jones) who is currently a locked-in member of our best 22.

Can they improve? Yeah, but bloody hell... To not have any of these players locked into the best 22 by now is a huge problem. Hobbs and Tsatas are behind Merrett, Parish and Durham and can't get a game in their position. Reid is luck, but that happens. Perkins is playing reserves. Cox has significant issues. We have to face facts that at least a good number of these guys is just not going to make it. They're not showing it.

Yes you can plug holes and we have, with later selections (Martin, Durham) or trades (Caldwell, Duursma)... But without your own guns from the draft, it's borderline impossible to build a deep, elite list to challenge for flags.

Our core of Stringer, Merrett, Wright (til this year), Langford, Parish, Redman, McKay, McGrath, Draper and Ridley are now in their prime at 26 - 30 years old. I don't think they're good enough to win a flag. We then have this enormous gap thanks to terrible drafting.

I'd like to hear from others who are better informed because it looks like a huge concern that will have us in a heap of trouble in 3-5 years. And the solution may have to be to get aggressive at the trade table now (Stringer? Wright? Parish? Redman? gulp... Ridley?), clear the way for Tsatas and Hobbs in the middle, secure some picks and look to build a good group over the next couple of years around Caddy. And we'd retain senior players like Merrett, Langford, McKay, Draper, Martin, Durham, Caldwell to go with them. Cos we might have lost a generation between them.
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Here’s a good illustration of what I was talking about.

People will argue at the margins about this bloke and that bloke but the overall trend is clear - we don’t have a single player considered in the top 40 players under 22yo in the game

1723099791910.png

Us and Richmond are the only ones. That is where our list is at.

This list is peaking now. This is as good as it gets.

Our last 4-5 years of top end drafting has been horrific and it will come home to roost. People don’t seem to have their heads around the fact that Cox, Perkins, Reid, Hobbs, Tsatas are not coming through. We might get lucky with one or maybe even of them… but largely they are busts (in relation to their draft position) who will not be the elite players we need to push us forward.

It can turn quickly but we need to be decisive. We need high picks now and we need to trade for them. Caddy looks the goods and we need to add to him.

It’s hard but the likes of Stringer, Redman, perhaps Ridley need to be on the table now to get us the returns we need.
 

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Bunk Moreland said:
Here’s a good illustration of what I was talking about.

People will argue at the margins about this bloke and that bloke but the overall trend is clear - we don’t have a single player considered in the top 40 players under 22yo in the game

View attachment 2072213

Us and Richmond are the only ones. That is where our list is at.

This list is peaking now. This is as good as it gets.

Our last 4-5 years of top end drafting has been horrific and it will come home to roost. People don’t seem to have their heads around the fact that Cox, Perkins, Reid, Hobbs, Tsatas are not coming through. We might get lucky with one or maybe even of them… but largely they are busts (in relation to their draft position) who will not be the elite players we need to push us forward.

It can turn quickly but we need to be decisive. We need high picks now and we need to trade for them. Caddy looks the goods and we need to add to him.

It’s hard but the likes of Stringer, Redman, perhaps Ridley need to be on the table now to get us the returns we need.
Click to expand...
Brilliant idea. Let's blow the list up for draft picks so we can draft more duds. Sure, by your logic we've messed up every pick except for Caddy. But hey, give us a few more darts and we'll surely nail them this time.

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Bunk Moreland said:
Here’s a good illustration of what I was talking about.

People will argue at the margins about this bloke and that bloke but the overall trend is clear - we don’t have a single player considered in the top 40 players under 22yo in the game

View attachment 2072213

Us and Richmond are the only ones. That is where our list is at.

This list is peaking now. This is as good as it gets.

Our last 4-5 years of top end drafting has been horrific and it will come home to roost. People don’t seem to have their heads around the fact that Cox, Perkins, Reid, Hobbs, Tsatas are not coming through. We might get lucky with one or maybe even of them… but largely they are busts (in relation to their draft position) who will not be the elite players we need to push us forward.

It can turn quickly but we need to be decisive. We need high picks now and we need to trade for them. Caddy looks the goods and we need to add to him.

It’s hard but the likes of Stringer, Redman, perhaps Ridley need to be on the table now to get us the returns we need.
Click to expand...

You had me agreeing until you said trade our good players for more picks.
 
Honestly trading for draft pics in this current market is such bad value.

Teams make you pay for the high end outcome of that pick or with an uncertain future pick and both are typically bad value trades

Essendon will get in 2 x top pics due to Kako NGA that’s a great start. Keep building around the margains with Free agents and discard guys
 

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