Where's the "success" line ... and how far below it are we?

[baldandbroke]

AFL Premierships

www.wheeloratings.com

How would you sort the list to show "success" - where would the thumbs up / thumbs down line be?

I think any premiership in the last 10 years puts you above the line - then # premierships - then GF appearances.

Here's my list:



We are right to feel starved of success.

 

[1970crow]

AFL Premierships

www.wheeloratings.com

How would you sort the list to show "success" - where would the thumbs up / thumbs down line be?

I think any premiership in the last 10 years puts you above the line - then # premierships - then GF appearances.

Here's my list:

View attachment 2125388

We are right to feel starved of success.

I would think prelims and finals should play a part in judging clubs against each other. Giants should be higher, although that could be recency bias.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

It's pure maths

8/18 years making finals
4/18 years making preliminary final
2/18 years making grand final
1/18 years premiership

That's the line where average is. The clubs furthest above it are the winners with successful cultures. Those below it are the other thing. We were above historically now maybe middle-ish after a barren recent period

 

[hugecannon]

Our first 20 years we were a successful club IMO, 2 premierships, regular finals including a couple of real opportunities to get to more grand finals and challenge for the premiership.

Since the end of 2012 we have made finals three times and haven’t been close to getting back to the top echelon of teams, and we don’t seem like we’re getting any closer to this level any time soon.

We always find ways to sabotage ourselves and demonstrate a complete inability to take advantage of our opportunities.

 

[FR0GGY]

It's pure maths

8/18 years making finals
4/18 years making preliminary final
2/18 years making grand final
1/18 years premiership

That's the line where average is. The clubs furthest above it are the winners with successful cultures. Those below it are the other thing. We were above historically now maybe middle-ish after a barren recent period

What if you were
2/18
2/18
2/18
2/18

 

[Bevoman]

What if you were
2/18
2/18
2/18
2/18

It's all the umpires fault

 

[CrowToon]

I don't think a rolling 10 year period should ever be the yardstick. Its 18 team competition with aggressive equalisation processes in place. Expecting 1 flag every 10 years to be considered successful is wildly unrealistic expectations.

With that being said once you get a drought beyond 20 years you've got cause for frustration (and not just because of the 18 team thing, 20 years is enough time to significantly address your list many times over). Sparse finals appearances magnify this.

I dont think Sydney aĺl things considered would be considered unsuccessful because despite their woeful GF record in the past 10 years they've still been there 4 times.

A rolling 20 year period seems more realistic.

 

[baldandbroke]

I don't think a rolling 10 year period should ever be the yardstick. Its 18 team competition with aggressive equalisation processes in place. Expecting 1 flag every 10 years to be considered successful is wildly unrealistic expectations.

With that being said once you get a drought beyond 20 years you've got cause for frustration (and not just because of the 18 team thing, 20 years is enough time to significantly address your list many times over). Sparse finals appearances magnify this.

I dont think Sydney aĺl things considered would be considered unsuccessful because despite their woeful GF record in the past 10 years they've still been there 4 times.

A rolling 20 year period seems more realistic.

Yes but if you are assessing a 20 year period - having 10 years as above the line is not wildly unrealistic at all. Right?

 

[George Kramer]

Our first 20 years we were a successful club IMO, 2 premierships, regular finals including a couple of real opportunities to get to more grand finals and challenge for the premiership.

Since the end of 2012 we have made finals three times and haven’t been close to getting back to the top echelon of teams, and we don’t seem like we’re getting any closer to this level any time soon.

We always find ways to sabotage ourselves and demonstrate a complete inability to take advantage of our opportunities.

Coincides with Roos reign of terror and Hamish shit show

 

[George Kramer]

It's all the umpires fault

Who did you plagiarise that from?

 

[Dirty Bird]

-	Expected	Won	-
ESS	10.493​	16​	5.507​
HAW	7.51524​	13​	5.485​
CARL	10.9097​	16​	5.09​
COLL	10.9097​	16​	5.09​
RICH	9.53469​	13​	3.465​
MELB	10.368​	13​	2.632​
BRIS	2.33343​	4​	1.667​
WC	2.33343​	4​	1.667​
-	-	-	-
ADEL	2.04771​	2​	-0.05​
GEEL	10.4779​	10​	-0.48​
PA	1.65605​	1​	-0.66​
UNI	0.7​	0​	-0.7​
GWS	0.72222​	0​	-0.72​
GC	0.78105​	0​	-0.78​
FITZ	9.25364​	8​	-1.25​
FRE	1.78105​	0​	-1.78​
NM	7.51524​	4​	-3.52​
WB	7.51524​	2​	-5.52​
SYD	10.6597​	5​	-5.66​
STK	10.493​	1​	-9.49​

 

[baldandbroke]

-	Expected	Won	-
ESS	10.493​	16​	5.507​
HAW	7.51524​	13​	5.485​
CARL	10.9097​	16​	5.09​
COLL	10.9097​	16​	5.09​
RICH	9.53469​	13​	3.465​
MELB	10.368​	13​	2.632​
BRIS	2.33343​	4​	1.667​
WC	2.33343​	4​	1.667​
-	-	-	-
ADEL	2.04771​	2​	-0.05​
GEEL	10.4779​	10​	-0.48​
PA	1.65605​	1​	-0.66​
UNI	0.7​	0​	-0.7​
GWS	0.72222​	0​	-0.72​
GC	0.78105​	0​	-0.78​
FITZ	9.25364​	8​	-1.25​
FRE	1.78105​	0​	-1.78​
NM	7.51524​	4​	-3.52​
WB	7.51524​	2​	-5.52​
SYD	10.6597​	5​	-5.66​
STK	10.493​	1​	-9.49​

Mmm anything that lists VFL premierships is not relevant imo. Also, I'm guessing this does not take into account the number of teams in the comp each year?

 

[Dirty Bird]

Mmm anything that lists VFL premierships is not relevant imo. Also, I'm guessing this does not take into account the number of teams in the comp each year?

Actually it does.

 

[kirky]

Our first 20 years we were a successful club IMO, 2 premierships, regular finals including a couple of real opportunities to get to more grand finals and challenge for the premiership.

Since the end of 2012 we have made finals three times and haven’t been close to getting back to the top echelon of teams, and we don’t seem like we’re getting any closer to this level any time soon.

We always find ways to sabotage ourselves and demonstrate a complete inability to take advantage of our opportunities.

3 finals appearances in the past 12 years is unacceptable for a club with the resources it has.

We have underachieved on a massive scale.

No ifs or buts about that.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Here's an AFL only one

-		Expected	Won	-
HAW		2.11914​	5​	2.881​
BRIS		2.11914​	4​	1.881​
WC		2.11914​	4​	1.881​
GEEL		2.11914​	4​	1.881​
COLL		2.11914​	3​	0.881​
RICH		2.11914​	3​	0.881​
-		-	-	-
ADEL		2.04771​	2​	-0.048​
ESS		2.11914​	2​	-0.119​
NM		2.11914​	2​	-0.119​
SYD		2.11914​	2​	-0.119​
FITZ		0.4631​	0​	-0.463​
PA		1.65605​	1​	-0.656​
GWS		0.72222​	0​	-0.722​
GC		0.78105​	0​	-0.781​
CARL		2.11914​	1​	-1.119​
MELB		2.11914​	1​	-1.119​
WB		2.11914​	1​	-1.119​
FRE		1.78105​	0​	-1.781​
STK		2.11914​	0​	-2.119​