Traded #10: Aaron Francis - Traded to Sydney w. Pick 42 + Future fourth rounder for Pick 37. Thanks Frang!

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10 - Frang.jpg
Contract Status: Out of contract 2022
Injury Status: n/a

My Boy Draft 2022: Pick 29, Mr Bultitude
 
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He can't be that confident if he's asking for anyone else to pick him up rather than nominating a club.
 
Old Campaigner said:
He can't be that confident if he's asking for anyone else to pick him up rather than nominating a club.
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Looking for opportunity I guess. SA probably the preference but at this stage if neither of those is interested then it’s going to be a flight either way
 
ant555 said:
Did we mess around with him ?
The first three seasons where mental health and injury.
2019 he had a solid season playing 17 games.
2020 only 8 games due to injury.
2021 he played 15 games but missed 4 weeks mid season with mental health.
I know people rate him as a defender and not a forward but the fact the club rated him enough to put him in the side as a forward says a bit. If they stuffed him around they could have just left him playing back in the VFL.
The fact is he became an almost player. If he hung onto those marks he would have had a good game. If he kicked those goals it would have been a decent game.
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If he didn't kick it straight into the the team mate standing next to him we wouldn't have had to scratch our heads so much.
 

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citizen-erased said:
flippancy aside, i can't recall a kid i enjoyed watching more.
i was stoked he was projected at our pick and when we got him. Thought Goddard would give him the apprenticeship and we'd have an elite Rance/Goddard hybrid coming through

sometimes it's just doesn't work.
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A good case study of why draft picks are overrated when you consider what he was projected to be.
 

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doug85 said:
A good case study of why draft picks are overrated when you consider what he was projected to be.
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Yet all the best sides have a combination of good drafted players and good players via FA / Trade.
Melbourne drafted Oliver / Pertracca and Gawn.
Hawks drafted Hodge / Buddy / Roughy / Lewis / Mitchell.
Both also traded well and picked good free agents.
You need to do both well.
 
ant555 said:
Yet all the best sides have a combination of good drafted players and good players via FA / Trade.
Melbourne drafted Oliver / Pertracca and Gawn.
Hawks drafted Hodge / Buddy / Roughy / Lewis / Mitchell.
Both also traded well and picked good free agents.
You need to do both well.
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Agree, high draft picks are important. I just think the expectations of what they’ll produce are too high. Someone used the analogy of driving a car out of the show room in relation to high draft picks. Beautiful and shiny, then lose half their value as soon as they’re driven off the lot!
 
Howard Moon said:
draft picks are only overrated if you pick the wrong guy
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Knightmare (yeah I know) did an analysis of every top 10 from about 2008 onwards. On average there’s about 3-4 busts every year, 3-4 solid players and 3-4 stars. On the D&T board people are botching about a top 10 pick for Parish, but you eliminating a hell of a lot of risk by taking the established player. You know exactly what you’re going to get (all things being equal).
 
doug85 said:
Knightmare (yeah I know) did an analysis of every top 10 from about 2008 onwards. On average there’s about 3-4 busts every year, 3-4 solid players and 3-4 stars. On the D&T board people are botching about a top 10 pick for Parish, but you eliminating a hell of a lot of risk by taking the established player. You know exactly what you’re going to get (all things being equal).
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Wonder about the correlation of high picks failing at shit clubs (highest pick = bottom of ladder)

If in some fantasy world the draft was open and gun kids could go to top clubs would they more likely succeed ?

What makes a shit club?...other than no success on field, no gun peers, poor preparation, bad development...it's gotta affect the success rate of potential guns coming in
 
Howard Moon said:
Wonder about the correlation of high picks failing at s**t clubs (highest pick = bottom of ladder)

If in some fantasy world the draft was open and gun kids could go to top clubs would they more likely succeed ?

What makes a s**t club?...other than no success on field, no gun peers, poor preparation, bad development...it's gotta affect the success rate of potential guns coming in
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It’s a good point that wasn’t considered. Melbourne had many busts from 2007-2013 when they were in all sorts of shit. Carlton too.

Edit: GCS another example
 
It's not overly difficult to pull the data for each draft year off the draftguru website and muck around with it to see what you get.

Essendon has had 7 top ten selections from 2008-2017, and in that period, ranked by average games per season:

Darcy Parish - 18.9 games per season, 15/100 most reliable top 10 pick
Andrew McGrath - 18.5 games per season, 20/100 most reliable top 10 pick
Dyson Heppell - 17.8 games per season, 25/100 most reliable top 10 pick
Jake Melksham - 15.8 games per season, 41/100 most reliable top 10 pick
Joe Daniher - 14.9 games per season, 48/100 most reliable top 10 pick
Michael Hurley - 13.9 games per season, 54/100 most reliable top 10 pick
Aaron Francis - 7.7 games per season, 80/100 most reliable top 10 pick

This is the bottom 20% across the league for top 10 picks 2008-2017:
0-4 games per season
  • Nathan Freeman, Collingwood, Pick 10, 2013 - played 2 games
  • Anthony Morabito, Fremantle, Pick 4, 2009 - played 26 games
  • Jonathon O'Rourke, GWS, Pick 2, 2012 - played 21 games
  • Jarrod Pickett, GWS, Pick 4, 2014 - played 17 games
  • Daniel Gorringe, Gold Coast, Pick 10, 2010 - played 26 games
  • John Butcher, Port Adelaide, Pick 8, 2009 - played 31 games
  • Liam Sumner, GWS, Pick 10, 2011 - played 32 games
  • Paul Ahern, GWS, Pick 7, 2014 - played 24 games
  • Jimmy Toumpas, Melbourne, Pick 4, 2012 - played 37 games
4-8 games per season
  • Matthew Scharenberg, Collingwood, Pick 6, 2013 - played 41 games
  • Andrew Moore, Port Adelaide, Pick 9, 2009 - played 60 games
  • Billy Longer, Brisbane, Pick 8, 2011 - played 66 games
  • Matt Buntine, GWS, Pick 5, 2011 - played 67 games
  • Nakia Cockatoo, Geelong, Pick 10, 2014 - played 49 games
  • Caleb Marchbank, GWS, Pick 6, 2014 - played 52 games
  • Tom Boyd, GWS, Pick 1, 2013 - played 61 games
  • Jack Trengove, Melbourne, Pick 2, 2009 - played 89 games
  • Paddy McCartin, St Kilda, Pick 1, 2014 - played 56 games
  • Harley Bennell, Gold Coast, Pick 2, 2010 - played 88 games
  • Aaron Francis, Essendon, Pick 6, 2015 - played 54 games
  • Will Brodie, Gold Coast, Pick 9, 2016 - played 47 games
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Tell you what else is bleeding obvious: The higher your average the more accolades you get, regardless of how long you've actually played.

In the top 30 (17.8+ ave games/season) there are exactly 4 top ten picks that have never had any of the following: Rising Star, B&F, AA40, AA, AFLPA MVP, Brownlow, Norm Smith or Premiership: Aaron Naughton (99 games), Adam Cerra (94 games), Jack Ziebell (258 games), Sam Petrevski-Seton (108 games).

Also a load of other charts that might be enlightening (2008-2021, all picks unless marked top 10 only);
Screen Shot 2022-09-13 at 15.57.21.png Screen Shot 2022-09-13 at 15.57.57.png Screen Shot 2022-09-13 at 15.58.35.png Screen Shot 2022-09-13 at 16.00.22.png Screen Shot 2022-09-13 at 16.03.18.png Screen Shot 2022-09-13 at 16.08.31.png Screen Shot 2022-09-13 at 16.10.12.png Screen Shot 2022-09-13 at 16.13.36.png Screen Shot 2022-09-13 at 16.15.57.png
 
Wish he was left to settle down back. Has as much talent as anyone there. Ridley coming on so well and the failure of Stewart and Laverde forward meant he was tried there. Only because he was a better option up forward than the other defenders, not that he was a worse option down back. He also clearly struggles with depression at times and that can be deadly in such a cut-throat world. I feel like his time at Essendon is a lot like his time in the forward line. "Almost". Good luck to him if he gets another chance. I have no doubt that if his body holds up and he's given a good chance to settle in the backline he'll be a very valuable player.
 

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Traded #10: Aaron Francis - Traded to Sydney w. Pick 42 + Future fourth rounder for Pick 37. Thanks Frang!

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