14,583

[Pilchard_Adams]

I did address it. West Coast only play in a 43K stadium. Their crowds are capped. You guys averaging 38K in a 51K stadium is patheitc.

To which I replied that it didnt seem to affect WC back in 05 and 06 where they averaged over 40k to a game.

You also seem to have strategically forgotten several points so I will repost them for you in bold

1996 finished 12th with an average crowd of 39,428
1997 finished 4th with an average crowd of 40,173 - A rise of 745 per game.
1998 finished 5th with an average crowd of 41,245 - A rise of 1072 per game

2011 finished 14th with an average crowd of 35,020
2012 currently 3rd with an average crowd of 36,825 - A rise of 1805 per game

By the end of the season its quite possible that Adelaides crowds will have improved by more than the improvement shown from 1996-1998 on the back of 2 flags. Why would any Adelaide fan be concerned about this improvement?

and this is the other section you keep over looking:

Why did west coasts crowds only rise from 35k in 2010 to 37.5k in 2011 when the eagles went from their worst season ever to finishing top 4? After all, in 05, 06 and 07 they averaged over 40k.

Why have Ports crowds dropped from 23.8k in 2008 to 21.2k average in 2012 despite both years having a 30% win average? Thats an 11% drop...

Why did Ports crowds rise from 26.3k average in 2000 to 27.2k average in 2006, yet today Ports crowds are averaged at 21.2k in a year they have similar win/loss percentages?

 

[Sekaj]

I cant see things like 119, 3, 165, 138 in those stats. These embarrassments caused plenty of people to turn their backs. Im sure supporters would have microwaved their memberships if they had a microwave.

I'm aware of a certain sociopathic individual who is already threatening to not renew his membership should he not receive a satisfactory response to his questions from Poort Power CEO Keith Thomas.

 

[Geoffa32]

Moo:

A commonly used Australian/british/new zealand word used to describe a ****ball, jerk, arseh*le or jackass.
Another word for tosser, which is usually reffered to when someone is being a tool or a complete dick. The term is usually asscossiated with one who masturbates regularly. Often reffered to as having a wank, hence the term Moo (one who wanks).

So he is a Sociopathic Moo?

 

[The Karma Bus]

You average 21k in a 51k stadium

Are you really that thick?

Yes.. Yes he is..

I cant see things like 119, 3, 165, 138 in those stats. These embarrassments caused plenty of people to turn their backs. Im sure supporters would have microwaved their memberships if they had a microwave.

Or if they had a membership..

 

[kaltmeibel]

I'm aware of a certain sociopathic individual who is already threatening to not renew his membership should he not receive a satisfactory response to his questions from Poort Power CEO Keith Thomas.

Yeah how funny. Bet yes man KT is worried about facing the wrath of Matt.

 

[kaysee]

This thread has nearly clocked up more replies than attended against Freo... ahh well quality always beats quantity.

 

[TheRoo32]

This thread has nearly clocked up more replies than attended against Freo... ahh well quality always beats quantity.

I doubt you'd know what quality is. As a Port supporter you wouldn't of seen any for quite some time...

 

[kaysee]

I doubt you'd know what quality is. As a Port supporter you wouldn't of seen any for quite some time...

Bagged your misses last night... that was quality.

 

[TheRoo32]

Bagged your misses last night... that was quality.

That comeback was quality

 

[kaysee]

That comeback was quality

As I said.. so it was with your misses.

 

[D_One]

*Face Palm*

What you don't understand my point?

*Face Palm*

 

[D_One]

You average 21k in a 51k stadium

Are you really that thick?

Someone else without the intellectual abilty to understand my point?

 

[TheRoo32]

What you don't understand my point?

*Face Palm*

You are the definition of fail...

 

[D_One]

There you go with the names again.

A polynomial is used when there is a relationship between 2 numbers. What you are asserting is that the value 1991 gives a certain crowd figures, while 2012 results in a different figure. Using a regression line with the year as a value is nonsense. You must now prepare for your nightly owning.


All the crowd figures and graphs tell us is that the usual home ground average is about 40k with a range from 38 - 43k with one really good year 46k. It shows that in 10 & 11 the crowds dropped, our win loss record shows this to be no surprised. And this year we are on the way back up.


What direction is the Port Power graph trending?

Haha you dont understand, do you sonny. I just gave you two math websites that explain how polynomial trending is done.

Here's a few more ...

http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cm/m06/m06-06.pdf
http://www.gigawiz.com/aabel3.html
http://math.tutorvista.com/statistics/trend-line.html#

 

[D_One]

You are the definition of fail...

Such a witty retort. You could have gone one better and said "Nah you are".

 

[Mattrox]

Bagged your misses last night... that was quality.

'Things Daniella Pierce does not approve of' board

 

[Mattrox]

Haha you dont understand, do you sonny. I just gave you two math websites that explain how polynomial trending is done.

Here's a few more ...

http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cm/m06/m06-06.pdf
http://www.gigawiz.com/aabel3.html
http://math.tutorvista.com/statistics/trend-line.html#

You can plot anything on a graph and perform a regression. But unless there is s relationship between the x and y values the regression is meaningless. The dependent and independent variable have to be related. Again, does the crowd number change as a result of the numerical value of the year. No its impossible.


Regression can link things like ' temp of day vs number of decrease sold' or 'area of land vs sale price' these are two simple examples.

The moving average is the more correct way to do this, and you know that, otherwise you would have used a polynomial to begin with. You just applied the moving average in the wrong manner. You also manipulated the y axis to exaggerate your trend.


Maths web sites might tell you how to do something, but can't make you choose the correct technique, or understand when to apply each method.

 

[kaysee]

What you don't understand my point?

*Face Palm*

He's too busy brainstorming his next BF alias.

I'm tipping it will be something like: The_#1_Dick

and this as his avatar...

 

[D_One]

You can plot anything on a graph and perform a regression. But unless there is s relationship between the x and y values the regression is meaningless. The dependent and independent variable have to be related. Again, does the crowd number change as a result of the numerical value of the year. No its impossible.

Regression analysis has always been used on time based data.

Time based regression analysis

The moving average is the more correct way to do this, and you know that, otherwise you would have used a polynomial to begin with. You just applied the moving average in the wrong manner. You also manipulated the y axis to exaggerate your trend.

Can you do a 5 year moving average? A linear regression also shows the obvious downward trend.

Maths web sites might tell you how to do something, but can't make you choose the correct technique, or understand when to apply each method.

No they also explain the correct technique.

 

[subaru]

Regression analysis has always been used on time based data.

Time based regression analysis



Can you do a 5 year moving average? A linear regression also shows the obvious downward trend.



No they also explain the correct technique.

Oh that reminds me of yet another gem ....

"Retrograde Improvement"

Ha

RETROGRADE IMPROVEMENT ...is that what Port have been doing ..improving in a retrograde fashion.????

Two year Lags, Belting the living suitcase out the Gold Coast, No Improvement for the Krows, You had Daniel Bass and we didn't.........so much fail from one person.

 

[Mattrox]

Regression analysis has always been used on time based data.

Time based regression analysis



Can you do a 5 year moving average? A linear regression also shows the obvious downward trend.



No they also explain the correct technique.

But you can't treat a Footy season as "time", time is continuous and doesn't stop at the end of September.

A football season is a discrete unit with a beginning and end, hence it must be treated as a discrete variable rather than time which is continuous.

You fail again because you don't fully understand.

 

[Mattrox]

To do an analysis for Crowds you need to select the correct method.

I am looking to determine a change in the "short term" crowd trends. To do this a short term moving average is required. I am looking for a cross over of the short term average over the line of the actual data. The Crows season data crosses up over the two year moving average line. This shows that the short term downward trend has broken this season.

Look at the Port Power graph, no crossover signalling a change from the recent downward trend.

 

[Mattrox]

To look at the longer term trend I changed the lower boundary of the Crows to the last figure before the the two bad seasons. See how the 2010 season sees the data line break out of the upper and lower lines. This shows the change from steady season averages, ie a downward change in the short term trend. We already knew that was happening. So to analyse if the long term trend has actually changed, I put the 10 year moving average line in. We see that the Crows long term trend is stil between the upper and lower lines. This means there is no significant change in the long term trend, ie 2010 and 2011 were blips on the radar.

The long term trend for Port Power is still falling.


So what is the upshot.
Crows : Short term trend has changed, therefore a recovery in crowd numbers. No change in the long term trend.
Port Power: Downward trend within the bounds of the upper and lower lines. No change in trend, still down, down down.


And that kind folks of the Bay is how a trend analysis for this kind of data is done (properly). D_One knows this but selectively chose misleading numbers.

Stand by for the "Why polynomials are a nonsense to model AFL crowd attendance" lesson.

D_One has adamantly stated for the record that they can be used. He can retract it now or look D_umb.
Last chance D_One.....

 

[Mattrox]

P.S.

D_One if those 2 graphs were presented for you as possible share investments which one would you jump on? Red line or Blue line.

Correct answer, you would jump on the blue line asap because if you waited the share price would recover back to historical levels and you would make a tidy capital gain.

Folks D_One will refuse to answer this question.

 

[subaru]

He won't answer....never does when he knows he's beat.
Which, although it is most of the time, I dare say he has yet to be beaten as comprehensively as this...and at his own game.

Well done !!!!

I'd get on the blue line too. I used to think the Port rusted ons was about 20000, I reckon now it's down to 15000.

By the end of this year, it will be 12000 - and Adelaide's Oval will not make money for them at that rate.