2009 AFL Grand Final betting thread

[GoodesStuff]

Grand final

OK this is what we have been waiting for!

St. Kilda 2.35 v Geelong 1.61

Ive got a $50 bet on the saints earlier in the year at 2.60, but what are the rest of you thinking of doing at this early stage?

 

[Death]

TAB/Centrebet - St Kilda $2.30 vs. Geelong $1.60
Sportingbet - St Kilda $2.10 vs. Geelong $1.72

I know it's pretty early but I got nothing else to do. My heart is hoping that St Kilda will get up. Even though they just beat the Doggies, the side they faced Friday night was a lot better than the Doggies from the QF. Think they will play the same tactics from the PF - lots of 1 on 1 pressure.

Geelong did look irresistable last night. However, were up against a side in an entirely different class.

One of the hardest games of the year to pick. As long as Riewoldt gets some more support from the forwards, I'm going with the the Saints in a low scoring game.

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Saints at 2.36 looks big, geelong shortening as we speak into 1.71

 

[R1KSTA]

Ive got $10 on St.Kilda to win the flag, Melbourne Storm to win the flag and Northern Bullants to win the flag. Its paying $23.40. So ive got a 1 in 4 chance atm to get up!!

 

[Colin D'Cops]

Norm Smith Medallist interest bets;
Joel Selwood @ $12.
Steve Johnson @ $16.

 

[dr nick]

Ive got $10 on St.Kilda to win the flag, Melbourne Storm to win the flag and Northern Bullants to win the flag. Its paying $23.40. So ive got a 1 in 4 chance atm to get up!!

bit longer than 1/4 at the minute mate.

 

[SmothOperRaider]

Chappy $11 to win the Norm Smith.

Sadly can't double it into the Churchill like I did with Stevie into GI in 2007.

 

[R1KSTA]

Sam Gilbert paying $41, for some reason, i think he is an outside chance..

 

[flea29]

Got on Kosi @ $151 last week.

 

[Nuke]

Love Max Rooke, would love to see him get Normy, I'll chuck some shrapnel on him just for fun! haha realistically don't think he's a chance though, not flashy enough. My 'serious' bet will be on Chappy lol, one of my favourite non-Bombers player ever.

Could someone like a Milne/Schneider be worth a go at 40-1+? I reckon Cats will win so can't have either, but if you like Saints, if one of these guys fire - which I think they have to, kicking a bag of 4 or 5 could see him storm right into the finish for it.

 

[Kahuna]

Can you multi a cats win with Norm Smith winner?

 

[tarky]

might put 10 on kelly @ 50-1.....you never know

 

[pacemaker]

F Ray at $70, is worth a $5 or $3

 

[mike262]

sad there is only 1 game left. i will miss it. what do i have to look forward do each w/e now.

 

[KR37]

Might put a bit of my winnings from Brownlow night onto St.Kilda winning and Hayes or Dal Santo for the Norm Smith.

 

[IDIG]

My bets will be Stevie J/Cats, Chappy/Cats and Kosi/Stk. Maybe Dal, not sure who Ling normally goes to?

 

[DockerA]

No love for Ablett? If he plays anywhere near what he did last week he'll get the double come saturday

 

[Notorious_29]

My bets will be Stevie J/Cats, Chappy/Cats and Kosi/Stk. Maybe Dal, not sure who Ling normally goes to?

Lingy usually takes Dal Santo, and usually restricts him pretty well. But i wouldnt be supirsed if he lined up on Lenny Hayes on Saturday as IMO lenny has been the player of the finals series so far.

 

[lions_den]

Can you multi the groups for highest disposals?

 

[half_back_flank]

Geelong under 40 @ 2.30 and Ablett to pick up the Norm Smith @ 6

 

[BlackAndWhiteBlood]

No you can't multi due to exclusion rules.

I've put some cash on Goddard (1.65), Gram (1.82) and Varcoe (3.65) not to kick a goal, as well as neither team to score 25 by the end of the 1st quarter (2.45).

Goddard's kicked 1 goal in the last 10 games so should be just about a dead cert to collect on that one.

Given the weather forecast, I'm fairly confident about the last one although Saints got off to a flyer last time they played in the home and away.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

For some reason I like Shannon Byrnes to kick the first goal, multied into someone like Selwood or Johnson to win Norm.

Paying $190 and $250 respectively.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Last time Ablett played St Kilda, C. Jones did a great job on him so I dont think Ablett is worth backing. Often a tagger is able to continue their good record against certain players.

I'm very surprised at how short Geelong are, it should be about evens IMO. People are placing too much weight on their smashing of Collingwood. Coll arnt that good, StK smashed them as well. St K has been fav all year and then all of the sudden Geel beat Coll and now they are $1.6... thats not right.

 

[Dingster]

I'm very surprised at how short Geelong are, it should be about evens IMO. People are placing too much weight on their smashing of Collingwood. Coll arnt that good, StK smashed them as well. St K has been fav all year and then all of the sudden Geel beat Coll and now they are $1.6... thats not right.

Most punters think the rain will favor Geelong who go well in the wet. I hope the Saints do well, but I certainly won't be putting my hard on them under those conditions.

 

[BlackAndWhiteBlood]

Last time Ablett played St Kilda, C. Jones did a great job on him so I dont think Ablett is worth backing. Often a tagger is able to continue their good record against certain players.

I'm very surprised at how short Geelong are, it should be about evens IMO. People are placing too much weight on their smashing of Collingwood. Coll arnt that good, StK smashed them as well. St K has been fav all year and then all of the sudden Geel beat Coll and now they are $1.6... thats not right.

I agree Doc - apparently the bookies are carrying huge money on a Gary Ablett Brownlow/Geelong Flag double, which is why the odds have come in for Geelong so much after last night's result. St Kilda offer great value, but I'm not sure whether they can go all the way.

Jones is probably regarded as one of the best vs Ablett - Ablett was sent into the forward line last time so that he had an impact on the game. Hayes vs Ablett most disposals H2H looks like a pretty good bet with Hayes at $2.50.