2011 AFL Power Ranking - RD5

[Roby]

Surprisingly no change at the top this week, all the changes are from the bottom teams. Port Adelaide the biggest loser this week, while Brisbane despite losing move up two places.

1. Collingwood (-)
2. Geelong (-)
3. Fremantle (-)
4. Essendon (-)
5. Hawthorn (-)
6. Western Bulldogs (-)
7. St Kilda (-)
8. Sydeney (-)
9. Carlton (-)
10. West Coast (-)
11. Adelaide (-)
12. Melbourne
13. Richmmond (+1)
14. Brisbane (+2)
15. Port Adelaide (-2)
16. Kangaroos (-1)
17. Gold Coast (-)​

Interesting round next week, as the Power Rankings suggest mainly close encounters again.
Roos (16) v Port (15)
Eagles (10) v Dees (12)
Swans (8) v Carlton (9)
Tigers (13) v Lions (14)
Crows (11) v Saints (7)

(The Power Rankings are a performance/vs opponent/form ranking.)

 

[demar10]

st kilda better than carlton?!?!
is that some kind of joke?

 

[Roby]

st kilda better than carlton?!?!
is that some kind of joke?

They came within a point of Geelong? Has anyone else done better? They lost Lenny Hayes and that's going to hurt them but the Power Rankings are performance indicator.

 

[dtrainium]

What calculation is used for this? Or is this just your opinion?

 

[Roby]

Not in high detail but a summary of the formula used is in this thread.

 

[David the Cat]

Good one Roby. That ladder looks a pretty fair indicator of teams' positions to me at this stage.

Kudos mate.

 

[davis_756]

They came within a point of Geelong? Has anyone else done better? They lost Lenny Hayes and that's going to hurt them but the Power Rankings are performance indicator.

They performed well against one side who is undefeated so that makes them better then carlton this year so far?

They performed 20 points worse against Richmond, 52 worse against Essendon and god forbid they lose to Adelaide this week and perform worse again.

Do losses simply not matter on this ladder? If so will Adelaide jump the Saints this week should they win overtaking the side that beat them last week?

 

[Roby]

They performed well against one side who is undefeated so that makes them better then carlton this year so far?

They performed 20 points worse against Richmond, 52 worse against Essendon and god forbid they lose to Adelaide this week and perform worse again.

Do losses simply not matter on this ladder? If so will Adelaide jump the Saints this week should they win overtaking the side that beat them last week?

Your concern is legitimate and I agree - on this year Carlton has performed better. If the Power Rankings started from scratch this year Carlton would be ahead.

But I've been tracking them since last year. The form line from last season (while albeit with a small modifier) still counts. That's why St Kilda is still currently ahead but that could change very quickly.

 

[Illinois Nazi]

I've been doing a similar sort of thing for several years now. My ladder currently (Rd 5) sits:

Collingwood
Geelong
Carlton
Essendon
Hawthorn
Fremantle
Sydney
Western
Melbourne
West Coast
St Kilda
Adelaide
Richmond
North Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Brisbane
Gold Coast

 

[justlookingaround]

Mind if I give it a show?

1. Geelong
Surprised? You shouldn't be, Geelong are undefeated too, and against more top 8 contenders than Collingwood. Think about it, Geelong have been challenged in all but 1 of their 5 games and in the end have come out on top. There has never been a moment in one of their games where they have looked flat, (excluding their injury ridden round 1) or where they have been crushed under pressure, just look at their last game against Hawthorn; Hawthorn were out to a 20 point lead in the first quarter but Geelong fought back to hit the lead, whenever Hawthorn looked like they were going to make a move to win it Geelong put them in a choke hold, there just seems to be nothing opposition sides can do against them while Geelong have them under pressure, they seem unable to lose close games.

2. Collingwood
Sure, it's round 5 and Collingwood are undefeated and the way they play is incredibly intimidating to say the least, but look at the games they've played, only 2 of their 5 games have been against real top 8 contenders and both these games came with their fair share of close calls for Collingwood, the ANZAC Day game having the most. So do Collingwood play well under pressure? Mostly. Are they the best team in the league? Yes. Are they playing like the best team in the league? Well when they're not under pressure.

3. Fremantle
Something funny about this season is that there seems to be a "Big 3 Teams" rather than a "Big 4 Teams" The 4th best seems to move from team to team while 1st 2nd and 3rd remain the same, are Fremantle the team to lock up the big 3? Their never say die efforts against Brisbane and Footscray, their dominance of Adelaide and North Melbourne, and their valiant effort against Geelong all while being severely undermanned would suggest this. I hate to say wait and see since Freo look so good, but this is the tightest wait and see in the game right now.

4. Essendon
So far Essendon's season has been somewhat a fairytale, and since they're only 2-1-2, and barely hanging onto the 8, that is saying a lot about how the competition viewed them last year. Essendon's effort against Collingwood on Monday did not deserve a 30 point loss, in fact this game may just pave the way for other teams to beat Collingwood. The week preceding that Essendon showed an incredible unwillingness to lose after losing two of their key players to season-ending injuries in the opening 10 minutes and to top it all off; Essendon have an incredibly easy schedule coming up starting this round, that may just land them a permanent spot in the business end of the 8.

5. Hawthorn
It is becoming a curse for Hawthorn that they won a flag 3 years ago, because at the start of every season since, everyone builds Hawthorn up... only to see them crash down. Loses to Geelong and Adelaide, and wins against Richmond, Melbourne and West Coast aren't enough to be able to see Hawthorn as a genuine premiership threat, hype will always be a virtue for Hawthorn, and so far they haven't delivered.

6. Carlton
Right now Carlton are sitting in the top 4 on 3 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw, but do they really deserve to be there? Their accuracy in front of goal continues to let them down and the teams they have won against aren't exactly quality. To be fair to Carlton their only loss was against Collingwood and they were *somewhat* competitive for the most part, but the draw is another story...

7. Footscray
The Bulldogs have had it tough so far this season, their two losses have been against quality sides, but you just get the feeling the premiership window has shut. Luckily for them they have an opportunity this round to silence all the naysayers and reestablish themselves as a powerhouse, but can it be done? Can the Dogs really stand up to Collingwood and put them under the same pressure Essendon did in round 5? If they were to deliver Collingwood's first loss would we see them in the same light we used to? Let's wait and see.

8. Sydney
Sydney are also only just hanging onto the 8, which is strange since they've only lost one game, nonetheless they desperately need a win this round, luckily for them they have Carlton on their home turf, a ground that Carlton have quite an infamous history at...


9. Richmond
Richmond supporters should be feeling on top of the world right now, their side has brought home their first win for the season after coming so painfully close against St. Kilda, and to make things even sweeter they have the depleted Lions in Melbourne this weekend which is an incredible opportunity to make it 2 on the trot! They will need to start winning games consistently after this round, or who knows, could Richmond hold the dreaded 9th spot on the ladder once more come season's end?

10/11 Melbourne/West Coast
Who deserves the spot in the 8? Melbourne or West Coast? I have a feeling only one of these teams will be in the eight at the end of the season, so will this game foreshadow that result in any way? Melbourne who gives very promising wins against lesser sides? Or West Coast who gives very promising losses to the teams above them, games like these really come down to who wants it more.

12. St. Kilda
Could St. Kilda's season be over after 6 rounds? A loss here and I'd say they're not playing finals. You don't generally say a team that is 1-5 at the end of round 6 will make the 8, why is St. Kilda any different? They are visibly not the defensive giant they used to be. This game is a must win, no questions asked.

13. Adelaide
Adelaide have had a season of embarrassments so far, incredibly impressive against Hawthorn yet humiliated against Fremantle and Port Adelaide of all teams, their last loss against Carlton is one you'd put under "the one that got away" category, but what happens if they lose this game? Luckily for them it's in Adelaide.

14. Gold Coast
The future looks bright for Gold Coast, they've got the best player in the league in Gary Ablett, and then a full team of the future "best players in the league" and that really showed in their inaugural win against Port Adelaide. But the near future doesn't look all too good with a game in Melbourne against the Bombers, but if they are to pull off another incredible upset, would they be in contention for the top 8? Either way they've got Brisbane afterwards which you couldn't by any means rule Gold Coast out of.

15. North Melbourne
North Melbourne have been on the bottom of the ladder since Gold Coast won their first game, and I said before the Richmond game started, "It doesn't mean all too much, they'll still be there tomorrow, but they won't be at the end of the season" I don't think that statement is 100% accurate, will North Melbourne be on the bottom of the ladder at the end of the season? There's no doubt they've got the worst list in the AFL, will their first win come this round? Or will it be further embarrassment for the Roos?

16. Brisbane
It's a sad tale for Brisbane, their first game of the year against Fremantle showed so much promise, but then it only took a split second for their whole season to die out. What makes it even more sad is how competitive they have remained without their skipper Jonathan Brown, but you can just see they don't have the same forward power without him. Who knows where their season could have gone had they not lost him so early on in the year.

17. Port Adelaide
Do Port Adelaide mean anything? Will they be in the AFL when Gold Coast win their first flag? Do their supporters even really care about their club? A demeaning loss to The Suns raises all these questions and more, will they draw even more humiliation with a loss to North Melbourne, or can they bounce back? It's been a sad year for Port Adelaide, and it makes you wonder how many more will come.

 

[David the Cat]

I've been doing a similar sort of thing for several years now. My ladder currently (Rd 5) sits:

Collingwood
Geelong
Carlton
Essendon
Hawthorn
Fremantle
Sydney
Western
Melbourne
West Coast
St Kilda
Adelaide
Richmond
North Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Brisbane
Gold Coast

Wow..Carlton very high? How come? ( ...must have been hard for you as a Pie man!! LOL )

 

[Illinois Nazi]

Wow..Carlton very high? How come? ( ...must have been hard for you as a Pie man!! LOL )

Just the way the numbers work out. Can't remember off the top of my head who they've beaten, but there must be another high rating team in there. Or have they won one on the road? Wins for teams travelling interstate also score higher.


EDIT: Just worked it out - it's the Gold Coast game. Because it was Gold Coast's first game they didn't have a rating to do the maths on. I had to start them somewhere, so I gave them the average of all teams to start with which has obviously turned out to be an over-rating of them. Plus it was a travelling game for the Blues so their score got doubly inflated.

As the season progresses the impact of that will fall away, as my rating scores are weighted toward more recent games. By round 8, less than half of the score they got for that game will still factor into their rating.

 

[Roby]

Just the way the numbers work out. Can't remember off the top of my head who they've beaten, but there must be another high rating team in there. Or have they won one on the road? Wins for teams travelling interstate also score higher.


EDIT: Just worked it out - it's the Gold Coast game. Because it was Gold Coast's first game they didn't have a rating to do the maths on. I had to start them somewhere, so I gave them the average of all teams to start with which has obviously turned out to be an over-rating of them. Plus it was a travelling game for the Blues so their score got doubly inflated.

As the season progresses the impact of that will fall away, as my rating scores are weighted toward more recent games. By round 8, less than half of the score they got for that game will still factor into their rating.

Don't take this the wrong way, but that is your first mistake. The rankings are not my opinion on a week to week basis. It's ongoing collation of data that's updated and added every week.

The Power Rankings I've devised are based on a lot of input data and things like opponent team strengths, umpire discrepancy, closeness of game, just too name a few peculiar items. Then it's collated and formulated into a revised algorithm.

In other words there is no forgetting of things, information is constantly updated every week, after all the games are reviewed.

Do you still have Melbourne ahead of West Coast? West Coast on the Power Ranking ladder before this week was 9th and two spots ahead of Melbourne, and they have clearly performed better. Tonight was an indication of that.

In actual fact, every week, the odds tend to be the same as the rankings apart from a couple of games. But the rankings have been more accurate in predicting the results.

This week their is a glaring oddity, Adelaide v St Kilda. Adelaide is favourite for that game but St Kilda is four spots ahead in the rankings. I would suggest there is weighted expectation of Adelaide playing at home with St Kilda not been highly rated by punters at the moment. Lenny Hayes loss has hurt St Kilda and the rankings to not equate potentiality of players becoming injured. It's just a pure performance output. So it takes most of bias and probability modelling out of the equation.

 

[AlibiMonday]

Don't take this the wrong way, but that is your first mistake. The rankings are not my opinion on a week to week basis. It's ongoing collation of data that's updated and added every week.

The Power Rankings I've devised are based on a lot of input data and things like opponent team strengths, umpire discrepancy, closeness of game, just too name a few peculiar items. Then it's collated and formulated into a revised algorithm.

In other words there is no forgetting of things, information is constantly updated every week, after all the games are reviewed.

Do you still have Melbourne ahead of West Coast? West Coast on the Power Ranking ladder before this week was 9th and two spots ahead of Melbourne, and they have clearly performed better. Tonight was an indication of that.

In actual fact, every week, the odds tend to be the same as the rankings apart from a couple of games. But the rankings have been more accurate in predicting the results.

This week their is a glaring oddity, Adelaide v St Kilda. Adelaide is favourite for that game but St Kilda is four spots ahead in the rankings. I would suggest there is weighted expectation of Adelaide playing at home with St Kilda not been highly rated by punters at the moment. Lenny Hayes loss has hurt St Kilda and the rankings to not equate potentiality of players becoming injured. It's just a pure performance output. So it takes most of bias and probability modelling out of the equation.

Good to see the depth behind this Roby - looking forward to watching it progress.

 

[Cerpin Taxt]

Have you considered generating odds for these expected outcomes? It'd be interesting to model it against each weekends games and see if you notice any good results over a period.

 

[Roby]

Have you considered generating odds for these expected outcomes? It'd be interesting to model it against each weekends games and see if you notice any good results over a period.

Last year I made a profit. But I only used the rankings as another tool in the arsenal. Like I've already stated it's only a "performance indicator". It's not use as pure model predictor.

Example let's say Collingwood v Bulldogs. If Bulldogs had a full list, and Collingwood lost Swan, Pendels, Cloke and Maxwell, I would tip Bulldogs even though Collingwood is considerably ahead in the rankings.

There are things like players outs, change in training regiments, teams changing tactics, home ground advantage, that all can have a greater effect on influencing the outcome. So it would be foolish to rely on the power rankings alone to predict a result.

 

[Illinois Nazi]

Don't take this the wrong way, but that is your first mistake. The rankings are not my opinion on a week to week basis. It's ongoing collation of data that's updated and added every week.

So is mine, as I said?

 

[indy nile]

15. North Melbourne
North Melbourne have been on the bottom of the ladder since Gold Coast won their first game, and I said before the Richmond game started, "It doesn't mean all too much, they'll still be there tomorrow, but they won't be at the end of the season" I don't think that statement is 100% accurate, will North Melbourne be on the bottom of the ladder at the end of the season? There's no doubt they've got the worst list in the AFL, will their first win come this round? Or will it be further embarrassment for the Roos?

Get stuffed Troll

 

[Old Spice]

Not in high detail but a summary of the formula used is in this thread.

I followed that thread hoping to get some specific formulas, but found none.

How do you quantify and multiply / divide / add / subtract that laundry list of issues you mentioned?

 

[kouta70]

Surprisingly no change at the top this week, all the changes are from the bottom teams. Port Adelaide the biggest loser this week, while Brisbane despite losing move up two places.

1. Collingwood (-)
2. Geelong (-)
3. Fremantle (-)
4. Essendon (-)
5. Hawthorn (-)
6. Western Bulldogs (-)
7. St Kilda (-)
8. Sydeney (-)
9. Carlton (-)
10. West Coast (-)
11. Adelaide (-)
12. Melbourne
13. Richmmond (+1)
14. Brisbane (+2)
15. Port Adelaide (-2)
16. Kangaroos (-1)
17. Gold Coast (-)​

Interesting round next week, as the Power Rankings suggest mainly close encounters again.
Roos (16) v Port (15)
Eagles (10) v Dees (12)
Swans (8) v Carlton (9)
Tigers (13) v Lions (14)
Crows (11) v Saints (7)

(The Power Rankings are a performance/vs opponent/form ranking.)

You're kidding right?

I know, I'll just look at the actual ladder and as it takes shape over the year I'll find out who the best team is and how the others rank.

Your silly formula (or a version of it) is used in leagues etc where some teams may not play each other at all. I think its even stupid then.

Yes, not all AFL teams play twice but that's what an 8 team final system is for. Teams who may be better than they appear will still make the 8 and then fight on.

This Power Ranking is a joke.

Just my opinion of course.

 

[David the Cat]

You're kidding right?

I know, I'll just look at the actual ladder and as it takes shape over the year I'll find out who the best team is and how the others rank.

Your silly formula (or a version of it) is used in leagues etc where some teams may not play each other at all. I think its even stupid then.

Yes, not all AFL teams play twice but that's what an 8 team final system is for. Teams who may be better than they appear will still make the 8 and then fight on.

This Power Ranking is a joke.

Just my opinion of course.

which of course, you're entitled to.

I guess that means you won't return to this thread. Perhaps you would like it better if it flattered your team.

I hope Roby continues with filling us in on this..its good to look at things from different perspectives IMO.

 

[Prestigerrycomo]

Surprisingly no change at the top this week, all the changes are from the bottom teams. Port Adelaide the biggest loser this week, while Brisbane despite losing move up two places.

1. Collingwood (-)
2. Geelong (-)
3. Fremantle (-)
4. Essendon (-)
5. Hawthorn (-)
6. Western Bulldogs (-)
7. St Kilda (-)
   [*]Sydeney (-)
8. Carlton (-)
9. West Coast (-)
10. Adelaide (-)
11. Melbourne
12. Richmmond (+1)
13. Brisbane (+2)
14. Port Adelaide (-2)
15. Kangaroos (-1)
16. Gold Coast (-)​

Interesting round next week, as the Power Rankings suggest mainly close encounters again.
Roos (16) v Port (15)
Eagles (10) v Dees (12)
Swans (8) v Carlton (9)
Tigers (13) v Lions (14)
Crows (11) v Saints (7)

(The Power Rankings are a performance/vs opponent/form ranking.)

 

[Team Mo']

I assume Carlton go down this week. Needed to win by more then 4 goals to go up I'd assume...

 

[davis_756]

I assume Carlton go down this week. Needed to win by more then 4 goals to go up I'd assume...

Only when Adelaide thump the saints by 56 points will we go down.

 

[Roby]

I followed that thread hoping to get some specific formulas, but found none.

How do you quantify and multiply / divide / add / subtract that laundry list of issues you mentioned?

It's not simple arithmetic, the algorithms are based on converging algebraic problems. There are multiple algorithms based on numerical analysis which then are merged into one model. The benefit of this is to be able to output larger intangible numbers into a simpler computational model.