2012 AFL Power Rankings Rnd 17

[WCErevival]

4th versus 14th is going to be one of the rounds best matches?

 

[Furn]

Do they rankings assume that all teams are at full strength ?

Also can we see the rankings without the luck and umpires factored in ?

 

[Eric Blair]

I so look forward to this thread. Don't ever change Roby

 

[ok.crows]

Aren't the Power Rankings supposed to indicate premiership potential? If Adelaide beat Geelong this week they are almost a monty to finish in the top 2 with their run home, whilst a Carlton loss will snuff out any faint finals hopes they have - so how could you still say at that point that Carlton have greater premiership potential this year?

Despite Roby's claims, these rankings clearly don't have anything at all to do with the chance of a team winning the flag, since Carlton are 5th with a wide gap to Adelaide who are 6th, when the actual chance each has of winning the flag (given that Adelaide are currently equal top with a relatively easy draw to come) are extremely much the other way around.

Backup to this opinion can be read on the AFL site right now.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/142373/default.aspx

(the Crows) almost look certain to finish first or second ... They're a massive chance, they're going superbly ... They get the preparation to potentially lead them into two home finals. ... It might be the story that Brenton Sanderson has one of those dream runs and gets them all the way through to a Grand Final.

The run home:
http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/142290/default.aspx

The Crows (2nd) are in a position to cement a top-two berth

The Blues (11th) need to win at least three out of their next four to remain in contention

Adelaide 6th, wide gap behind Carlton 5th

Something doesn't add up, and I think it probably is the "advanced calculus genius" rather than the ex-AFL-footballer who has got the sums all wrong. There is at least one factor (level of injury) which Roby apparently accounts for in the wrong direction, somehow ranking teams with more injured players as better chances to win the flag.

Perhaps Roby thinks the Crows will be a better chance now that Tippet has had problems with concussion?
http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/142356/default.aspx

Given this, it is very probable that Roby has got a few other factors backwards as well, by the look of it.

 

[Mateyman]

That is quite a margin, and must have been a ridiculous amount before the Blues lost a few in a row. Which means you would have had the top 5 teams 'in another league'... yet reigning premiers Geelong were in the lower grouping? We are perplexed.

Bulldogs v Carlton: your system is open to 'who played' and therefore some other factors. Are these calculated according to some rules (i.e. Dreamteam points etc), or just based on your thoughts?
If the latter, then it is open to bias. End of the day, each team has the same numbers on the playing list (excl. GWS, Suns). Depth is no excuse.
* And so to, it seems, is the 'benefit of umps decisions' rule you seem to have.

Correct, Pies remain 2nd (with Carlton 6th). Note though that they have lost about 10% of their rank this year, went from 1st to 2nd, back to first and now back to 2nd best team all year. Also Carlton were rewarded well (and Collingwood penalised harshly) from those games. Its all there on the blog... have a look.
Finally on this point, we are also open enough in our data to suggest our numbers are not perfect, and next season new algorithms will be run (see Project: Renewal). I think if we had more 'dynamic' factors in play, the Pies would be lower. Even the new numbers of the Project still creates a similar table (Pies 2, Blues 7)

Our aim is not line betting or even straight tipping... but trying to get tips and margins as close as possible. Probably impossible to achieve!

PS... thanks for dropping by our blog. Happy to have feedback, constructive or otherwise. Hoping you are too.

Your rankings=10X more accurate. How Carlton are still 5th, when they probably won't even make the 8, I'll never know

 

[Mateyman]

How is Collingwood vs. GWS, nearly the largest discrepancy in the rankings, an "interesting match"

 

[Zahara]

Do you just make these rankings up on the spot?

 

[THRILLHO]

Carlton in fifth looked ridiculous a month ago.

 

[ausbacker]

Your rankings=10X more accurate. How Carlton are still 5th, when they probably won't even make the 8, I'll never know

I quite like Footy Maths tag line of "Your logical, but not quite right, approach to working out who is better, who's best...". It's a great way to say we're having a crack at rankings and whilst we support the results it doesn't make them an absolute.

 

[Paul Kersey]

At least we all agree that Hawthorn are now 1st without question.

 

[TedDougChris]

are your bets going to have any relevence at all to these rankings this week Roby? No?

Does these rankings have any relevence to the actual happenings on and off the field at any point during the season. No....

 

[ok.crows]

At least we all agree that Hawthorn are now 1st without question.

Do we? The Official AFL ladder has a different opinion:

http://finalsiren.com/AFLLadder.asp

Hawks are third.

 

[eldorado]

Do we? The Official AFL ladder has a different opinion:

http://finalsiren.com/AFLLadder.asp

Hawks are third.

Pfft! What do they know of power rankings??!!! The damned fools..pah!!

 

[ok.crows]

Pfft! What do they know of power rankings??!!! The damned fools..pah!!

Yeah, fools is right ... anyway it is not like the Official AFL ladder is important in any way when it comes to finals or determining which sides have a better chance to win the flag ... oh wait.

 

[Paul Kersey]

Do we? The Official AFL ladder has a different opinion:

http://finalsiren.com/AFLLadder.asp

Hawks are third.

Hawks. Crows. GF. You know who 99% of the population would be backing. You know it.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Hawks. Crows. GF. You know who 99% of the population would be backing. You know it.

Adelaide because they're undefeated in grand finals?

 

[ok.crows]

Hawks. Crows. GF. You know who 99% of the population would be backing. You know it.

If the Crows and the Hawks were to play off in the GF this year, there is no doubt that Hawks would be hot, hot favourites in GF week (given that "hot favourites" reflects what the majority of people think might happen, which is in turn driven mostly by media spin). Much like the Saints were in 1997 I suppose.

However, the chances of each team winning a flag also depends on the chances of making the GF in the first place. Right now, the Crows have one game up on the Hawks (as does Sydney) and the Crows have an easier draw to come. If the Crows and Sydney finish top 2, the Hawks will have a harder task to make the GF.

 

[Paul Kersey]

Crows get over Geelong this week and they'll finish 1st. Sydney have Collingwood, Hawthorn & Geelong to come - I think they'll slip to third.

 

[ok.crows]

Crows get over Geelong this week and they'll finish 1st. Sydney have Collingwood, Hawthorn & Geelong to come - I think they'll slip to third.

Certainly that is a possibility. All possibilities (outcomes) have a certain probability of actually happening. The sum of all such probabilities is one. The sum of probabilities of outcomes where the Crows win the flag is not zero. Neither is it zero (at this stage) for Sydney, Hawks, Pies, Geelong, West Coast, Essendon, Saints or even a few others.

PS: Although the probability of Carlton winning the flag from this point is not zero, nevertheless it is a long, long way below the probability of the Crows winning the flag from this point. Hence, given that they purport to rank the teams relative chances of winning the flag, Roby's Power Rankings are complete and utter nonsense in terms of their stated objective.

 

[FootyMaths]

Your rankings=10X more accurate. How Carlton are still 5th, when they probably won't even make the 8, I'll never know

Thanks for dropping by!

 

[FootyMaths]

I quite like Footy Maths tag line of "Your logical, but not quite right, approach to working out who is better, who's best...". It's a great way to say we're having a crack at rankings and whilst we support the results it doesn't make them an absolute.

Correct! We are having a crack, and already recognise some errors that we will tweak for next season. Thanks for checking us out, we post every so often, so drop by again.

 

[ams4crows]

Aren't the Power Rankings supposed to indicate premiership potential? If Adelaide beat Geelong this week they are almost a monty to finish in the top 2 with their run home, whilst a Carlton loss will snuff out any faint finals hopes they have - so how could you still say at that point that Carlton have greater premiership potential this year?

Common sense is not appreciated by Roby, actually I'm not sure if he has any or even understands the term.

 

[JimmyDE]

i just wasted 5 mins of my life reading this

 

[ok.crows]

Common sense is not appreciated by Roby, actually I'm not sure if he has any or even understands the term.

Given the fact that Roby goes utterly silent every time someone points out the utter illogic of his rankings, I'm pretty certain that Roby puts all authors of common sense objections on ignore.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Given the fact that Roby goes utterly silent every time someone points out the utter illogic of his rankings, I'm pretty certain that Roby puts all authors of common sense objections on ignore.

I'm tempted to become an outstanding citizen of BigFooty just to become a mod and ban Roby from the main board.
It's just getting beyond ridiculous now!