NCAA 2012 NCAA - Week 3

[Exe Gesis]

After the weekends results, there have been a few changes in the 25. Texas A&M, Nebraska and Wisconsin plummit a little, while Iowa is out of the 25 altogether. Nevada drops as well, but they were one of 5 teams who had cases for the #25 rank along with Oklahoma, Michigan, Northern Illinois and SMU.

1. Alabama
2. USC
3. Notre Dame (+1)
4. Ohio State (+1)
5. West Virginia (+1)
6. TCU (+1)
7. Louisville (+1)
8. Clemson (+1)
9. LSU (+1)
10. Texas (+1)
11. Oregon (+1)
12. Texas A&M (-9)
13. Ohio (+1)
14. Virginia Tech (+1)
15. Boise State (+1)
16. Cincinnati (+2)
17. Georgia (+2)
18. Kansas State (+2)
19. Florida State (+2)
20. South Carolina (+4)
21. Nebraska (-8)
22. Wisconsin (-5)
23. South Florida
24. Michigan State New
25. Oklahoma New

Dropped out: 22. Iowa, 25. Nevada

BCS Bowl Projections:
BCS National Championship: Alabama vs USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs Oregon
Fiesta Bowl: West Virginia vs Notre Dame
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Louisville
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs Ohio

1. Alabama @ Arkansas - Arkansas struggled even with Wilson on Saturday, but once he went down as well as their starting CB, they fell to shit vs Louisiana-Monroe. Alabama on the other hand are dominating all infront of them and nobody seems to be good enough to worry them right now. They're too good all around the field, and if Wilson can't get up, Arkansas could really have a fair shot at a shutout. Alabama to win 31-0

2. USC @ Stanford - These teams feel just about even in 3 of the 5 main aspects in the game. The Cardinal Run D could shut down the Trojan Run O, the Trojan D as a whole could shut down the Cardinal O as a whole. But there is no way in hell the Cardinal will be able to stop Matt Barkley. It took a **** up by the Trojans to let a Luck led and luck filled Cardinal team to win last year in 3 OTs. Take out that Luck, and the Cardinal are royally ****ed against good opposition like USC. USC to win 56-14

3. Notre Dame @ 24 Michigan State - First instant of this week where I'll have who I thought of the lessar team in pre-season winning. My pre-seaosn predictions that are giving Notre Dame 3rd spot gave them the win here, but the fatigue that has built in the Fighting Irish with their cross-oceanic travels is building and was evident on the weekend vs Purdue. Michigan State's defence is also the best North of the Ohio River. They could shutdown and decimate the Irish Offence. Plus Le'Veon Bell is a workhorse. He's not the explosive, but he'll get the regular short yardage to keep the offence on track, then if the D doesn't contain, then they could be ran around all day. Michigan State to win 31-10

4. Ohio State vs California - Best team in the BigTen vs an average Pac-12 team? With the way the Pac is performing this season, I'd give the Bears a chance in Berkley, but in Columbus. No chance in hell. Ohio State to win 45-7

5. West Virginia vs James Madison (FCS) - West Virginia isn't coming off a heartbreaking loss to Boise State. And JMU isn't introducing a brand new offence, though, their pistol is a tough offence to stop when they have talent, just look at Nevada for the last few years, but JMU doesn't have that talent, and their defence will not get near to stopping Geno Smith. The Mountaineers could push 100 points if they wanted to, but they'll probably slow down a little. West Virginia to win 73-10

6. TCU @ Kansas - Kansas are crap, TCU have a great 1st team, maybe even argueably the best 1st team in the conference. I just expect a few junk time points by the Jayhawks but no chance in winning. TCU to win 45-14

7. Louisville vs North Carolina - The best in the Big East vs an average ACC team? And when the ACC is mathimatically worse than the Big East, you'd think Louisville would win this 9 time out of 10. Their offence is bloody good, while the Tar Heels are average all over. Louisville to win 35-6

8. Clemson vs Furman - If it was Florida State, I'd give Clemson the win, but Furman? wowzer. Clemson to win 84-0

9. LSU vs Idaho - Lol, LSU is decimating above average Pac-12 teams, Idaho could very well be the worst team in FBS football, ****, they were held to 3 points by an FCS defence. LSU could get more points than Idaho can yards. If not, it'll be bloody close. LSU to win 63-0

10. Texas @ Ole Miss - Texas have a very good defence, well, by BigXII standards (though, that's not saying much) while Ole Miss has been shit since their Cotton Bowl loss, what, 3 seasons ago now? It does appear they're starting to turn things around, but I doubt that run will maintain through Texas. Texas to win 35-10

11. Oregon vs Tennessee Tech - The Ducks really don't have the bet depth on Defence, Their offence will keep things going all day, but they might give up some junk time points. Oregon to win 84-14

12. Texas A&M @ SMU - Could be close. SMU are a decent team, but IMO, so is Texas A&M. The Aggies put up a nice effort vs the Gators in their season opener, should be a good tune up for the season and should show their class this week against inferior opposition just getting over the line. Texas A&M to win 35-24

13. Ohio @ Marshall - Ohio is my BCS buster, but Marshall feel like they possess a good offence, could match it with Ohio leg for leg this week. Where's Randy Moss when you want him Ohio to win 58-56 (3OT)

14. Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh are horrendous. Thankyou ACC so much for taking the bottom feeders from the Big East. Also lovely to watch Mark Mays' team to get wiped out by FCS teams even. The Hokies will win, no doubt about it. Only question is, how much? Virginia Tech to win 42-3

15. Boise State vs Miami (Oh) - Boise's defence could really destroy Miami, but their offence seems to be a worry right now. But the running game should get going, allowing them to get their offence into rythm and slowly putting points on the board. Boise State to win 33-10

16. Cincinnati vs Delaware State - lol, just, lol. Cincinnati to win 38-10

17. Georgia vs Florida Atlantic - May as well be a walkover. Top end SEC vs SBC will be more time than not. Georgia to win 45-3

18. Kansas State vs North Texas - Lol, you kidding me? Look at what Klein did to Miami (Fl), now imagine what he can do to this team. Kansas State to win 63-14

19. Florida State vs Wake Forest - Florida State is the better team, but Wake Forest feels like this could be a good year for them. Still going with the Seminoles though. Florida State to win 35-21

20. South Carolina vs UAB - Top end SEC vs a C-USA bottom feeder? Don't get me started. Shouldn't be on the Gamecock schedule. This wont show us anything about UAB, but it could show us stuff about South Carolina. South Carolina to win 38-14

21. Nebraska vs Arkansas State - Nebraska will be furious after last weeks result. They won't show any mercy early. Arkansas State have the talent to score a little but not enough to push them the distance. Nebraska to win 38-17

22. Wisconsin vs Utah State - Head, rankings, most things say go Wisconsin, but my heart just feels the Aggies can challenge Wisconsin here. They could be gunning for a BCS bid here. Get through Wisconsin and they're almost there. Just the 1 or 2 more games to go undefeated. Lets just take the random punt. Utah State to win 27-13

23. South Florida vs Rutgers - Should be a good game. But Holtz seems a good coach, should get the Bulls over the line. South Florida to win 35-24

24. Michigan State vs 3 Notre Dame - See above

25. Oklahoma - bye

 

[usalion]

Ohio in the top 25? You must really rate Penn State....Can I have some of what you are smoking, DB? Notre dame #3 with that "dominant" win over the Boilermakers? Get ready for a hammering this week at the hands of the Spartans....

TCU? Louisville? Texas? What creampuffs did these guys beat up on?

Ohio in the top 25? You must rate Penn State pretty damn high....And going to a BCS bowl? Deriously, who would they have played if they do go undefeated? The Little Sisters of the poor.... Hell, my old high school team has a better chance of making the BCS than those guys.

Texas A and M only dropping to 12, and no sign of Florida, who beat them on their home turf? Really?

Georgia at #17 after kicking Mizzou's butt on their home patch. OK, I'm a bit biased here, living in athens, but really.....

Oy vey.....

 

[Dirty Bird]

My rankings are based off my pre-season predictions, then adjusted week by week as results go against my pre-season tips.

Ohio should go undefeated
Louisville should go undefeated
TCU are one of the best teams in the BigXII
Texas A&M I still have going strong, now just dropping back to 10-2.
Florida win just brought them up to 6-6
Would you have Georgia up in the top 10 when 9-3. Every team above them I have being undefeated, 1 or a 2 loss team.

 

[Blacky]

What did LSU ever do to you

 

[Dirty Bird]

Tips team to go 10-2.
Gets critisized

 

[usalion]

My rankings are based off my pre-season predictions, then adjusted week by week as results go against my pre-season tips.

Ohio should go undefeated
Louisville should go undefeated
TCU are one of the best teams in the BigXII
Texas A&M I still have going strong, now just dropping back to 10-2.
Florida win just brought them up to 6-6
Would you have Georgia up in the top 10 when 9-3. Every team above them I have being undefeated, 1 or a 2 loss team.

Ohio should go undefeated- so what? Look at their schedule- they play NOBODY that would approach a top 25 team. Might make the top 20 IF they go undefeated.

Louisville- dunno- pretty weak conference

TCU- yep, a good team

Florida- 6-6 may be the record at the end, but right now they are 2-0 and they beat a team you rate in the top 15.

Who of LSU or Alabama will they beat? Not to mention the rest of their schedule. There are three losses right off the bat.

Which three teams will beat Georgia? South carolina might....and they might slip up once more against somebody else.

Who will beat LSU outside of Alabama?

 

[Dirty Bird]

Ohio should go undefeated- so what? Look at their schedule- they play NOBODY that would approach a top 25 team. Might make the top 20 IF they go undefeated.

Louisville- dunno- pretty weak conference

TCU- yep, a good team

Florida- 6-6 may be the record at the end, but right now they are 2-0 and they beat a team you rate in the top 15.

Who of LSU or Alabama will they beat? Not to mention the rest of their schedule. There are three losses right off the bat.

Which three teams will beat Georgia? South carolina might....and they might slip up once more against somebody else.

Who will beat LSU outside of Alabama?

I have Texas A&M beating LSU. pre-season I had them only losing to Alabama.
On Georgia, I have them losing the 2 weeks either side of their bye, then in their 3rd last game.

Looking at the schedule rather then my predictions that are down as just W/L, that would be vs South Carolina (10-3), @ Kentucky (7-5) and @ Auburn (6-6)
Hmmm, if I re-did my tips, I'd change that game vs Auburn, but I do need to have confidence in my pre-season tips. As the season goes on and my tips are wrong, the rankings will make adjustments. Just look at the movement of 3 teams on the weekend.

 

[twarby]

scratches head
If Boise loses this week will they be promoted?
Florida State 19th?
Notre Dame 3rd?

 

[Dirty Bird]

scratches head
If Boise loses this week will they be promoted?
Florida State 19th?
Notre Dame 3rd?

At least I don't have 25 TBD

 

[twarby]

try again

 

[Master Shake]

There is no way an undefeated Ohio makes it to a BCS game. As hilarious as it would be for a MAC team to make it, it just won't happen.

 

[Blacky]

You cant please everyone with a list of rankings I guess.
What we can say categorically though, is that you have ND WAYYY too high.

 

[MrKK]

I have Texas A&M beating LSU. pre-season I had them only losing to Alabama.
On Georgia, I have them losing the 2 weeks either side of their bye, then in their 3rd last game.

Looking at the schedule rather then my predictions that are down as just W/L, that would be vs South Carolina (10-3), @ Kentucky (7-5) and @ Auburn (6-6)
Hmmm, if I re-did my tips, I'd change that game vs Auburn, but I do need to have confidence in my pre-season tips. As the season goes on and my tips are wrong, the rankings will make adjustments. Just look at the movement of 3 teams on the weekend.

I just can't fathom how you had aTm going 11-1. B12 and SEC are pretty equal in strength and you'd expect some drop because they have a whole schedule of unknown opponents to scout plus a new QB - so why would they go from the middle of the B12 pack to the upper echelon of the SEC?

As for Georgia, they will trounce Kentucky who are terrible and won't be getting near a bowl this season.

I'd love to see Ohio as a BCS buster too but they're not going to have a single victory over a ranked opponent so even if they run the table they won't get high enough in the polls. I don't think Houston even got there before losing the C-USA championship game last season, and they were destroying teams every week in arguably a tougher conference.

 

[Dirty Bird]

I just can't fathom how you had aTm going 11-1. B12 and SEC are pretty equal in strength and you'd expect some drop because they have a whole schedule of unknown opponents to scout plus a new QB - so why would they go from the middle of the B12 pack to the upper echelon of the SEC?

As for Georgia, they will trounce Kentucky who are terrible and won't be getting near a bowl this season.

I'd love to see Ohio as a BCS buster too but they're not going to have a single victory over a ranked opponent so even if they run the table they won't get high enough in the polls. I don't think Houston even got there before losing the C-USA championship game last season, and they were destroying teams every week in arguably a tougher conference.

Texas A&M may have gone 6-6 last year, but they were close to 10-2, they just choked games away, they're not as bad as people thought. Plus the SEC is considerably overrated, sure, they have the 3-4 really good teams that win the BCS Natinoal Championship, but there's little depth, the Florida's of this world are no better than the Kansas State's, the Arkansas' are no better than the Oklahoma State's, the Kentucky's are no better than the Baylor's, the Vanderbilt's are no better than the Iowa State's, the Ole Miss' are no better than the Kansas'. The only main difference between the SEC and the Big XII is there are 4 upper echleon teams rather than 2, and Texas A&M get to avoid 2 of them this year. Their schedule this year is very similar in difficulty to last years, and last years team were how close to 10-2, a BigXII championship and a Fiesta Bowl?

Houston were well on their way last year to going to the BCS. They reached 6th in the BCS before losing to Southern Miss. They had been BS eligable for 4 weeks before their loss. An undefeated Bobcats team should be pushing around the non-aq champ mark to bust the BCS. They need to make the top 16 in my scenerio as they'd be above Michigan, but if Wisconsin beat Michigan, it'd be incredibly close as to whether they'd be BCS Bowl Bound. It's either top 12, or top 16 if above an-AQ champ. Top 14 is to become an at-large candidate.

 

[Master Shake]

Houston were well on their way last year to going to the BCS. They reached 6th in the BCS before losing to Southern Miss. They had been BS eligable for 4 weeks before their loss. An undefeated Bobcats team should be pushing around the non-aq champ mark to bust the BCS. They need to make the top 16 in my scenerio as they'd be above Michigan, but if Wisconsin beat Michigan, it'd be incredibly close as to whether they'd be BCS Bowl Bound. It's either top 12, or top 16 if above an-AQ champ. Top 14 is to become an at-large candidate.

There is no chance at all that an undefeated Ohio team reaches the BCS. The MAC is one of the weakest FBS conferences in the nation. They'd have to rely on their out-of-conference schedule to get them some votes and here's what their OOC schedule is:

• Penn State- In a state of disarray reeling from the largest scandal to hit any sports program in the US. Not sure their victory over the Lions was much of an upset.
• New Mexico State- This team has been awful for years.
• Marshall- Had a run as a possible BCS-buster a few years back but has been decent, at best, for the past few years.
• Norfolk State- Not sure if this is even an FBS-level program
• Massachusetts- Lost big to perennial Big Ten bottom feeder Indiana last week and should get absolutely destroyed this week by Michigan.

With that kind of schedule, there is nothing that shows it should be given an invite over other programs. Boise and Texas Christian started getting their BCS invites because they would regularly play teams like VA Tech, Georgia, etc. Ohio hasn't done enough to warrant a BCS invite, in my opinion.

Personally, I'd love to see a MAC team make it. I live right in the middle of the MAC geographical footprint so seeing a team from the region that usually doesn't make it would be pretty cool. However, I just don't see any way at all how this would happen.

 

[Dirty Bird]

1999 Marshall Thundering Herd - 12-0. W @ Clemson, W vs Liberty, W vs Temple - BCS Rank = #12 (would have busted BCS if it was the current top 12 rule, rather than the 8 of the time)

2003 Miami RedHawks - 12-1. Lose @ Iowa, Other OOC games were @ Northwestern, @ Colorado State and vs Cincinnati - BCS rank = #11 (would have busted BCS if it was the current top 12 rule, rather than the 8 of the time)

2008 Ball State Cardinals - 12-2, but they were 12-0 at one stage. Going into the MAC Championship Ball State had cracked 12th in the BCS ranking, this was despite an OOC of Northwestern, Navy, @ Indiana and @ Western Kentucky (if they had of won they would have been BCS eligable, but Utah would have gotten the AQ spot, and as Boise State were also there but sent to the Poinsettia Bowl, they too wouldn't have made it had they beaten Buffalo to go 13-0)

BTW - On your Boise comparison, look at their 2006 schedule. They beat what, Oregon State, sure, they turned out good that year and beat USC, but at the time it didn't look that great of a win.

 

[aussiedude]

Week 3 TV Schedule

Friday September 14th
Rutgers Vs South Florida 9:30AM EST on ESPN

Saturday September 15th
Washington Stare Vs UNLV 11AM EST on ESPN2

Sunday September 16th
Wake Forrest Vs #5 Florida State 2AM EST on ESPN
California Vs #12 Ohio State 2AM EST on ESPN2
North Carolina Vs #19 Louisville 5:30AM EST on ESPN
Navy Vs Penn State 5:30AM EST on ESPN2
#18 Florida Vs #23 Tennessee (Joined in progress, also gamesite of Gameday) 8:30AM EST on ESPN2
#20 Notre Dame Vs #10 Michigan State 10:07AM EST on ESPN
#14 Texas Vs Ole Miss 11:15AM EST on ESPN2

*Rankings are AP top 25 and not Dirty Birds personal top 25 rankings

 

[Blacky]

Week 3 TV Schedule

Friday September 14th
Rutgers Vs South Florida 9:30AM EST on ESPN

Saturday September 15th
Washington Stare Vs UNLV 11AM EST on ESPN2

Sunday September 16th
Wake Forrest Vs #5 Florida State 2AM EST on ESPN
California Vs #12 Ohio State 2AM EST on ESPN2
North Carolina Vs #19 Louisville 5:30AM EST on ESPN
Navy Vs Penn State 5:30AM EST on ESPN2
#18 Florida Vs #23 Tennessee (Joined in progress, also gamesite of Gameday) 8:30AM EST on ESPN2
#20 Notre Dame Vs #10 Michigan State 10:07AM EST on ESPN
#14 Texas Vs Ole Miss 11:15AM EST on ESPN2

*Rankings are AP top 25 and not Dirty Birds personal top 25 rankings

We can tell........

 

[Dirty Bird]

*Rankings are AP top 25 and not Dirty Birds personal top 25 rankings

Your loss, you could have hyped up the mid-week Big East game better

 

[MrKK]

Putting Texas on upset alert this week. Also ND if we're using DB's rankings.

 

[Master Shake]

1999 Marshall Thundering Herd - 12-0. W @ Clemson, W vs Liberty, W vs Temple - BCS Rank = #12 (would have busted BCS if it was the current top 12 rule, rather than the 8 of the time)

2003 Miami RedHawks - 12-1. Lose @ Iowa, Other OOC games were @ Northwestern, @ Colorado State and vs Cincinnati - BCS rank = #11 (would have busted BCS if it was the current top 12 rule, rather than the 8 of the time)

2008 Ball State Cardinals - 12-2, but they were 12-0 at one stage. Going into the MAC Championship Ball State had cracked 12th in the BCS ranking, this was despite an OOC of Northwestern, Navy, @ Indiana and @ Western Kentucky (if they had of won they would have been BCS eligable, but Utah would have gotten the AQ spot, and as Boise State were also there but sent to the Poinsettia Bowl, they too wouldn't have made it had they beaten Buffalo to go 13-0)

BTW - On your Boise comparison, look at their 2006 schedule. They beat what, Oregon State, sure, they turned out good that year and beat USC, but at the time it didn't look that great of a win.

For these examples, what were the rankings of the teams that Marshall, Miami, etc. played at the time? BCS rankings take, among other things, the team's rankings in other polls. For those teams to move up a poll, there would have to be at least a few decent teams that would demonstrate that, at the very least, the current location in the poll is warranted. It would also take into consideration where the team was ranked at the start of the year. It's much easier to get the higher rankings needed to help the BCS rank when you start off the season as a ranked team.

That's the problem Ohio faces. They're not ranked in the poll I looked at (over at ESPN, which is one of the polls I believe used in the BCS formula). There's not much on the schedule that would give them enough push to move them into the mandatory invite level. As I see it, their only hope of gaining any worthwhile ground is that a good number of teams lose 3-4 games this season because if they don't, there is nothing in Ohio's schedule that would push them jumping over a 1 or 2 loss team from the AQ conferences based on Ohio not being ranked now and none of their opponents being ranked.

The BCS is a wacky formula. The W-L record is but one of the criteria. If a team (especially from a non-AQ conference) isn't ranked, isn't playing any ranked teams, and doesn't see teams that are ranked have catastrophic breakdowns, there is little for it to play in a BCS game.

 

[Dirty Bird]

......

 

[Paul Kersey]

#14 Texas Vs Ole Miss 11:15AM EST on ESPN2

Yeah!

 

[Shade]

Rutgers uni's are sexy as.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Wonders if people will stop underrating the Irish now