NCAA 2012 NCAA - Week 5

[Dirty Bird]

Firstly, I must admitt I only saw 1 game this week as I went to Melbourne to watch Adelaide play Hawthorn, so my results this week are closer to the AP Poll more than ever, as I'm talking 100% shit rather than 75% shit.

Anyway, this weeks 25:
1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Ohio State
4. USC
5. West Virginia
6. TCU
7. Louisville
8. LSU (+1)
9. Texas (+1)
10. Oregon (+1)
11. Texas A&M (+1)
12. Kansas State (+5)
13. Florida State (+5)
14. Clemson (-6)
15. Ohio (-2)
16. Boise State (-2)
17. Cincinnati (-2)
18. South Carolina (+1)
19. Georgia (-3)
20. Nebraska
21. Rutgers (+3)
22. Virginia Tech (-1)
23. Wisconsin (-1)
24. Michigan State (+1)
25. Michigan (New)

Dropped Out: 23. Oklahoma

Bowl Predictions

BCS National Championship: Alabama (#1) vs Notre Dame (#2)
Rose Bowl: USC (Pac-12 champ) vs Michigan (BigTen champ)
Fiesta Bowl: West Virginia (Big XII champ) vs Oregon (at large)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC champ) vs Ohio (Top 16 non-aq team above aq champ)
Sugar Bowl: LSU (at large) vs Louisville (Big East champ)

Alabama, Notre Dame, USC, Michigan, West Virginia, Florida State - Locked into those spots
Ohio, Louisville - Must be taken due to automatically qualifying
TCU, LSU, Texas, Oregon, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Clemson - At large possibilities

Selection 1 - Sugar Bowl - LSU - They'll replace Alabama with LSU.

This eliminated Texas A&M from other BCS Bowl selections as you can not have 3 teams from the same conference.

Selection 2 - Fiesta Bowl - Oregon - I doubt they'll go Big XII vs Big XII (Is it even allowed?) so it became Oregon vs Clemson vs Louisville vs Ohio. Louisville and Ohio should not be held in the same breath as the other 2, so in reality it's Oregon vs Clemson. Being a western bowl. I'll go Oregon. Easier for the fans to buyout their ticket allotment.

This eliminates TCU, Texas, Kansas State and Clemson as the final 2 spots MUST be Ohio and Lousville due to qualifying automatically.

Selection 3 - Sugar Bowl - Louisville - Who in their right mind would want Ohio? Better chances of the voters rigging everything so they finish below Boise State (or both outside of the top 16) just to keep them out, rather than selecting them ahead of Louisville.

Selection 4 - Orange Bowl - Ohio - By default.

1. Alabama vs Ole Miss - Alabama is far and away the best team in college football, their offence is clicking on all cylinders, while their defence is as good as ever. LSU might be able to turn this into a dogfight, but beyond them, no one on the rest of their schedule should get close. Alabama to win 35-7

2. Notre Dame - Idle

3. Ohio State @ 24 Michigan State - Seriously, look at Michigan State's offence. They have what, 8 good players? and what, 5 of them are Offensive lineman who can be nullified by a more than competant front 7? Guess what, Ohio State has that front 7, Le'Veon Bell will not be able to do to Ohio State as he did to Boise State or anyone else. Take out that run game and Maxwell is going to have to single handedly beat Ohio State. That's not going to happen. Michigan State's defence though is definently the 2nd best in the country and one of 2 complete defences. (note, I might be overrating them, but how about top 5? That leaves USC, TCU and 1 other team [other than Alabama who's my #1] the oppurtunity to jump them) they could trouble Ohio State pretty well and might make this competitive. This game IMO has 1 of 2 options. Ohio State doing to Michigan State as Notre Dame did to them. Or Ohio State emulating Boise State, and we get a tight contest from 15:00 in the 1st, to 0:00 in the 4th (and maybe beyond). Ohio State to win 10-6

4. USC - Idle

5. West Virginia vs Baylor - 1st major test for the Mountaineers. Can they pass it? Gonna need alot to go wrong to fail. Their offence is the most explosive in this conference, only 3 teams should get close at stopping them and only 2 teams in conference have the firepower to stick with them stride for stride. Baylor is not one of those 4 (1 of the teams in conference I see as having the full package to beat them - Yet ironically, I tipped WVU to win that game) teams. They might be able to keep up with WVU for 1, maybe 2, and if we get a miracle, 3 quarters. But 4 quarters? No chance in hell. West Virginia to win 56-39

6. TCU @ SMU - Does SMU have the offence and gameplan to get a winning score? Yes, does SMU have a defence that can stop TCU? No. That's the deciding factor in this. No doubt about it. TCU to win 59-31

7. Louisville @ Southern Miss - Look, I'm wrong about Southern Miss. I viewed them as a pre-season threat to Boise State, right now I'm viewing them as a joke. They were supposed to be 2-1 right now on well on their way to winning the C-USA East. Not anymore as they've started 0-3. Louisville is doing as expected though, so I expect them to hold on, but I'm not all that confident as I still do believe Southern Miss has the talent to cause an almighty upset on their day. But; Louisville to win 31-21

8. LSU vs Towson (FCS) - Top end SEC vs FCS school? Only question is how much? LSU to win 56-0

9. Texas @ Oklahoma State - Look, I have tipped Texas to start 10-0 then choke at the death and fall to 10-2. But this is a danger game. Oklahoma State have an amazing offence and Mike Grundy has improved this team year after year. Logic dictates a slight win to Texas, even in Oklahoma. But trends just makes me think Oklahoma State will win the Big XII this year. My head says Texas, my heart says Oklahoma State. I'm sticking with the head, I've been proven right with Notre Dame and Arkansas (which were 2 extreme predictions I had pre-season), so I'll trust I'll be right again. Texas to win 38-30

10. Oregon vs Washington State- Their offence is just that ****ing good, even if Washington State's offence reaches the potential they have, they will not get anywhere near stopping the Oregon offence. This is over before it even begins. The best case Washington State has is if Oregon play the worst game they can..........AND the Cougars have a 5 TD head start. Oregon to win 70-14

11. Texas A&M vs Arkansas - It doesn't matter how bad the Aggies might be and whether or not I'm overrating them, this is all about Arkansas, Petrino was a ****ing great coach, but John L.Smith is not. Ok, he was alright at Idaho, but face facts, when he was ok there, his opponents were FCS schools. He was also ok at Utah State, but he has ridden Louisville and Michigan State into the ground and he's going to do the same to Arkansas. This is the beginning of the end to Arkansas, but not even I could envision how bad they would be this year. I thought 6-6 (2-6 in conference) was on the cards. They've already proven me wrong and are now projected to go 4-8. But that was including giving them future wins over Kentucky, Ole Miss and Tulsa. That's looking unlikely right now, I wont change them as I'd have to go through 124 schools, but I think I was wrong with Arkansas, or so it would seem. Texas A&M to win 45-10

12. Kansas State - idle

13. Florida State @ South Florida - Look, I rate South Florida, infact, I'd have this going down to the wire. Then they went and lost to Ball State. It might also be time to stand up and see what the Seminoles are doing. They might finally be ready to reach expectations. I'll admit, I was wrong with both of these teams, well, just a little bit right now. But the gap has widened in my view since my pre-season predictions, and therefore, I'm now leaning towards. Florida State to win 38-17

14. Clemson @ Boston College - Yeah, lol, Eagles have been shit since the loss of Ryan, sure, I tought this year they might have a chance, then I realised that the defence was all Kuechly. Their D won't stop Clemson, so lets save everybody time here and just end this writeup now. Clemson to win 41-10

15. Ohio @ Massachusetts - UMass shouldn't have came up to FBS, they're not good enough. Go back down before you destroy your football program forever. Ohio to win 45-7

16. Boise State @ New Mexico - As much as Boise State's offence has done shit vs competant defences. New Mexico doesn't have a competant defence. They wont stop Boise State, plus, the Broncos have a top 10 defence (top 5? pushing it, but they have holes at LB and depth issues at DL). New Mexico's best shot will be Southwick going Nelson on Boise State, and the Boise defence not showing up. Heck 1 might happen, but both? I doubt it. Boise State to win 41-14

17. Cincinnati vs 22. Virginia Tech - Yes, I do have the lower ranked team projected to win. To be fair, I have Virginia Tech going 11-2 and Cincy 10-2 pre-season. I still think Virginia Tech is the better team, but they're now 10-3 in my eyes as they have a tougher schedule costing them games. Virginia Tech is a good team in an average conference who are stuck playing the good teams, Cincy is an above average team, in an average conference, who play all the teams, who just happen to be worse then them. Their rating will be inflated at the end of the season just as the conference is shit (though, the ACC is shit too, but they have 3 good teams rather than the Big East's 1). As I said, Virginia Tech is better so I have them winning, though note, if Cincinnati do win this, they could go up nicely, probably at least 4 spots, but anyway; Virginia Tech to win 35-28

18. South Carolina @ Kentucky - South Carolina is an above average SEC team, Kentucky is an average SEC team. This is the sought of matchup where an upset wouldn't totally be off the cards. But lets face facts, the Gamecocks are a better team, with better coaches. They could push Alabama on their day (but it'd take 4 quarters of their best football) but they could also lose to Vanderbilt if everything goes against them. I'll predict this with not much confidence at all, but I guess. South Carolina to win 35-21

19. Georgia vs Tennessee - I think this game could turn into what appears to be a Big East style of game. Competitive with neither team gaining a decisive advantage. Georgia and Tennessee seem to be going the track of Alabama. Rather than being a boring defence only team, they're starting to develop an offensive side. The difference though with the Big East, they have the talent that could beat teams in the big 2 (SEC and BigXII) conferences. Tennessee need to prove they're worthy of their 3-1 record. They have a stretch here of 4 bloody hard games, with only 1 at home, this is the first of that stretch and the only one before their bye week. I see Tennessee coming out all guns blazing to get that W on the board. Georgia though, IMO, has better talent and should just be able to hold off the challenge, then run away with the game later in the day. Georgia to win 38-28

20. Nebraska vs 23. Wisconsin - I'll keep this one short. Wisconsin will not hold up the Nebraska offence, so they're going to have to pray for a shootout and just hope they have final possession. But if the Nebraska defence can dominate the LOS and POA. Wisconsin's offence is doomed to fail. Which is exactly what I expect now. Nebraska to win 45-14

21. Rutgers - Idle

22. Virginia Tech @ 17. Cincinnati - See above

23. Wisconsin @ 20. Nebaska - See above

24. Michigan State vs 3. Ohio State - See above

25. Michigan - Idle

 

[drd23]

The fact that there are the same number of B1G teams in your top 25 as there are SEC teams and far more than the Pac-12 shows you need to watch more games

 

[usalion]

But you have to remember, drd, DB is basing all this on predictions he made before the deason started, He expects Notre Dame to beat either USC or Oklahoma (or both- I don't have a copy of his spreadsheet).

Of the big 10, possibly only Mich St, Ohio st and maybe Purdue deserve top 25 consideration. In the Pac 12, you do have a bunch- Oregon, uSC, stanford, UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon state (gasp).

SEC is settling down a bit- Alabama, LSU (Down a couple of spots now), Georgia (a team on the rise- that offence is coming together nicely, and they get two of their star defenders back after suspensions this week against the Vols), South Carolina, and Florida.

The Pac 12 is the big area to look t, but I don't think DB is revising his picks on individual games- he had Kentucky beating georgia- if they come within 35 points, I'll be very surprised.

 

[drd23]

But you have to remember, drd, DB is basing all this on predictions he made before the deason started

I know.

But he obviously isn't altering his predictions on future results based on what we've seen so far which makes his "this weeks Top 25" (which I think is incorrectly named) look even more inaccurate. If he did, I doubt that Wisconsin would still be in the T25 for example

 

[Dirty Bird]

I know.

But he obviously isn't altering his predictions on future results based on what we've seen so far which makes his "this weeks Top 25" (which I think is incorrectly named) look even more inaccurate. If he did, I doubt that Wisconsin would still be in the T25 for example

And Stanford would probably be in my top 25, while I'd be reluctant to have Rutgers in the 25 either.
Anyway, going through 124 sides is time consuming, doing the initial one took 4 consecutive nights where I knocked off about 3 conferences at a time. Doing that weekly would be difficult beyond belief. It'd be a ***** getting it up before the 1st game of each individual week!

Results will sorten things out. Also, look at the 5 BigTen teams, Ohio State (ineligable) is 3rd, the next highest is 20th, sure, they hold 20th, 23rd, 24th and 25th. But it's not like they're that far ahead of the Pac-12.
In the Pac-12 department, I have USC 12-1, Oregon 11-2, then a bunch of 5 schools at 7-5. The gap between the Pac-12's and BigTen's bottom feeders though are large, so the BigTen middle of the road teams are getting that extra win to hold off the middle of the road Pac-12 teams. 8 of my Pac-12 teams fall in the 5-7 to 7-5 range.

Then again, those bottom feeders of the BigTen in Northwestern, Minnesota and Indiana are winning more games then not right now, so perhaps the losses they'll share will push them down.

 

[usalion]

I know.

But he obviously isn't altering his predictions on future results based on what we've seen so far which makes his "this weeks Top 25" (which I think is incorrectly named) look even more inaccurate. If he did, I doubt that Wisconsin would still be in the T25 for example

It is what it is. I get a chuckle at some of his picks. I hope he put some dosh on Ohio making a BCS bowl, because I reckon a $10 bet even this late in the season would be worth 1000 to 1 odds. No team with their lightweight schedule will get a sniff of the BCS. an undefeated season for them will see them maybe between 20 and 25 in the polls.

 

[StKildaUSA]

Personally, I am just impressed that:
a. An Australian is into college football.
b. He knows the minutae of the BCS bowl selection process.

For me, I prefer a resume approach based on what teams have done so far. In past years, I have kept my own top 15.

I would also like to know what he based his preseason predictions.

 

[twarby]

so you have Notre Dame losing to USC, but still have the Irish playing for a National Title.

USC would have won probably 3 matches within a month against top 5 teams, surely that would trump Notre Dame?

 

[Master Shake]

A disappointing football weekend this past weekend, for me, at least. Michigan demonstrated they don't deserve to be in the top 25. nd demonstrated they don't deserve to be a top 10 team, either. They beat UM because they were less inept than the Wolverines. Why Hoke continues to play Robinson at QB boggles my mind. As long as they insist on pushing the fantasy that he's a passing QB UM will continue to struggle on offense. He should either ditch the offensive game plan and go for a more run-based offense or put Gardner or Bellomy in.

 

[tb_fanboy]

good lord I think Oregon state could be ranked this week

 

[Dirty Bird]

Just to pump my own horn My pre-season predictions are perfect on; Virginia, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville, Temple, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Marshall, UCF, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP, Army, Navy, Notre Dame, Akron, Bowling Green, Massachusetts, Miami (Oh), Ohio, Northern Illinois, Air Force, Fresno State, Hawai'i, California, Oregon, Washington, Georgia, Missouri, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Arkansas State, FIU, Florida Atlantic, South Alabama and UTSA.

 

[bjtoby]

Bye Bye Michigan This rivalry has produced some good games of late, and is one of my favourites to watch.

 

[juddy_Like]

Yep I'm saddened by the lost of the Michigan/ND game as well.

 

[Master Shake]

Yeah, the loss of nd as a yearly game stinks. I just hope another marquee program takes their place in UM's schedule.

 

[aussiedude]

Week 5 TV Schedule

Friday September 28
#8 Stanford Vs Washington 11AM EST on ESPN

Saturday September 29
Hawaii Vs BYU 10AM EST on ESPN

Sunday September 30
Penn State Vs Illinois 2AM EST on ESPN2
Minnesota Vs Iowa 2AM EST on ESPN2
#14 Ohio State Vs #20 Michigan State 5:30AM EST on ESPN
#17 Clemson Vs Boston College 5:30AM EST on ESPN2
#4 Florida State Vs USF 8:30AM EST on ESPN2
Wisconsin Vs #22 Nebraska 10:07AM EST on ESPN
Mississippi Vs #1 Alabama 11:15AM EST on ESPN2


ESPN3 Schedule

Friday September 28
#8 Stanford Vs Washington 11AM EST

Saturday September 29
Hawaii Vs BYU 10AM

Sunday September 30
Buffalo Vs Connecticut 2AM EST
Kent State Vs Ball State 2AM EST
Central Connecticut Vs Sacred Heart 2AM EST
Miami (Ohio) Vs Akron 4AM EST
Ohio Vs Massachusetts 5:30AM EST
Troy Vs South Alabama 5:30AM EST
Rhode Island Vs Bowling Green 5:30AM EST
Idaho Vs North Carolina 5:30AM EST
Central Michigan Vs Northern Illinois 5:30AM EST
Southeastern Louisiana Vs Lamar 6AM EST
North Texas Vs Florida Atlantic 7AM EST
Samford Vs Georgia Southern 8AM EST
Grambling State vs Alabama A&M 9AM EST
Missouri State Vs South Dakota State 9AM EST

*Rankings are AP top 25
Games are LIVE

 

[Dirty Bird]

No shocks right now at Washington

 

[aussiedude]

need to work on the drops, not like i was expecting a undefeated season i said 2-3 loss team.

 

[TexasHawk]

6. TCU @ SMU - Does SMU have the offence and gameplan to get a winning score? Yes, does SMU have a defence that can stop TCU? No. That's the deciding factor in this. No doubt about it. TCU to win 59-31

SMU definitely doesn't have the offense this season. Terrible quarterback and in need of a coaching change fast imo. If we (been following the 'Stangs since I was born) score even 20 on TCU, I'll be completely shocked.

 

[Warsaw]

Geno Smith, damn.

 

[TexasHawk]

This Baylor/West Virginia game is video game type stuff. Unreal.

 

[Dirty Bird]

BigXII really needs to take a page out of TCU's book and learn some god damn defence.

 

[tb_fanboy]

This Baylor/West Virginia game is video game type stuff. Unreal.

the numbers were unreal....8 tds and 600 + yds, 300+ receiving yards & 5td catches. Nick Florence threw 500 yards and 5 tds and still lost...wow

 

[aussiedude]

Geno Smith, damn.

Oregon style offence. still Big East D giving up 60 in the Big12 is poor.

Was Geno Smiths passing a FBS record? because the 2 700+YD passers this year were FBS schools.

 

[Dirty Bird]

I gave Boston College the win pre-season.
Wow, guess, Clemson will raise a little this coming week.

 

[drd23]

I gave Boston College the win pre-season.
Wow, guess, Clemson will raise a little this coming week.

What year are you living in?