Review 2013: Quarters won...

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Kimbo

Cancelled
Veteran 10k Posts
Dec 14, 2002
19,301
29,321
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Sturt, Liverpool
An afl.com.au article on the Giants piqued my interest in looking into our quarter-by-quarter performances.

The article says:

The start-up club won two games in its maiden season but saluted just once in 2013.
But a more encouraging stat was that after winning just 13 quarters in their debut season, the Giants increased that total to 18 in 2013. Melbourne supporters won't be too pleased to learn that with just 19 quarters won for the season, their club finished only marginally ahead of the Giants.
By contrast, 2013 premier Hawthorn won 68 of 88 quarters of football played this year.
As far as I can tell, Hawthorn actually won 60.5 of 88, not 68. But, regardless, how did we do?

We won 53.5 of 88 quarters or 60.8% of our quarters, ranked #6 (the same as our percentage). I think this justifies the general thinking that we were a better team than our ladder position indicated. Of course, it's what the scoreboard says at the end of the game that counts. Take Collingwood for instance, who won only 43 quarters, plus 4 drawn quarters (51.14%) and ranked 10th on that list (similar to Carlton, 44 wins, plus two drawn quarters).

The quarter-by-quarter breakdown is interesting.

We won 18/22 first quarters (ranked 1st, next best being Hawthorn 16/22, then Richmond and Sydney 15 and 2 drawn quarters). When leading at quarter time, we went on to win 10/18 (6th best), which while not great, was certainly better than when trailing at quarter time; we lost all 4 of those games (only Demons and Giants below us, both 0 from 14). The best at converting first-quarter leads into wins were Hawks (15/16) and Dockers (13.5/15). The best at coming back was Geelong (6 wins from the 8 games they trailed at quarter-time).

We won 12.5/22 second quarters (ranked 9th, Sydney and Geelong on top with 15.5). Putting 1st and 2nd quarters together, we were leading in 15/22 games at half-time (ranked 5th), and went on to win 9 (60%) of them. On the flipside, we won only one game out of 7 when trailing at half time (#13). Hawks won 5/6 when trailing at half-time, Geelong 4/6 and Dockers 3.5/8. (We won 50% of our second halves, ranked 12th on %age with Hawks and Cats on top with 16/22).

We won 11/22 of our third quarters (ranked 10th). Geelong ranked first with 18.5/22 third quarters won, followed by Swans (15.5/22) and Blues (14.5/22). The good news is that we went on to win 10/14 games when leading at three-quarter time. The bad news is that we lost all 8 games when trailing at three-quarter time! To put it in some context, however, Richmond lost 7 of 7, and Sydney 4 of 4 when in the same boat and the best performed when in this position was Port 4/13 and *essendon 4/12, so it's not an easy task.

We won 12/22 last quarters (ranked 8th). Hawks (#1) were 17/22, Port (#2) were 15/22 and Crows and Richmond next best with 14/22. Dockers, *bombres and Weagles rounded off the top eight in last quarters won with 13/22. Interestingly, Pies, Cats and Swans won only 10/22 last quarters.

Another interesting comparison is with 2012. We won 53 quarters in 2012, with two drawn quarters (ranked 5th). That's one drawn quarter above 2013. What it does show is that in both of the last two years our W/L ratio and ladder position does not reflect number of quarters won, or by implication overall dominance. It does probably show what we all know; that when we leak goals and let the opposition get a run on, we do it very well. :cool:
 
Need to increase the 3rd q win percentage in 2014.
 
Amazing stats for an off-season discussion Kimbo:thumbsu: .

It's hard to know what to really make of them so I'll begin by stating the bleeding obvious.

Apart from our excellent first quarters, we played about as well as our ladder position suggests - average.

Why do we drop off so badly after quarter time? Is it us or them? Or a combination?

It's interesting to see how hard it is to win when you're behind at 3/4 time. Best was 4 times (*essendon and Port). Maybe that ''let's beat the traffic'' theory is not so dumb after all.)
 

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The concerning stat is that we lead 15 games at half time and only won 60% of them. Got to capitalise better here.
True. While we ranked 9th (footywire) ranked first by number of games won - having won 9 games (of 15) when leading at half time - if you base it only on percentage of games won when in front, we'd be 15th! Weagles also 60% (6/10) but a slightly lower F/A percentage, Saints on 55% (5/9), Giants 20% (1/5).

It's somewhat misleading, however, because done that way, the Dees top the ladder at 100% (1/1). That said, Dockers 93% of games won, when leading at half time: 13/14! *essendon 10/11.
 
Win more second quarters, then we're leading by more at half time and in front more often at 3/4 time.

Our aim should be to be in front at 3/4 time.

Nah we did that already.

I reckon next year we aim to be in front at the end of the match.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Those stats factor the 5+ goal fade outs in last quarters, once you factor how well we played until we put the cue in the rack we would have had very strong second half results.

We do seem to have a lack of intensity often at the start of third quarters but usually get to a commanding position by mid point in the last quarter.

Regardless, if we cut out the 3+ cheap goals we concede every week in the back half for undisciplined acts would pretty much have made us a top 4 side in 2013. Good sides do not gift goals to the opposition.
 
We put our cue in the rack 1/4 of the way in. Sounds like my love life.
 
These stats seem to back up the theory that our style is extremely hard to beat when all elements are working, but equally difficult to maintain for 100 minutes.

Good thread Legsa!
 
There's a lot of talk about our style not being sustainable, but a couple more ounces of fitness in the young brigade and the implications of the interchange cap on many of the high-rotation clubs might tilt the balance a bit more our way so we don't get overrun in the second half like 2013. I don't think there will be radical changes to the game plan, other than the tinkering with midfield defensive pressure and tackling.
 

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Review 2013: Quarters won...

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