2014 Brownlow Medal

[Tigers04]

G'day guys new to the thread and just want some opinions

What do you all think of Gary ablett finishing in the top 5? I have him finishing on 23-24 second behind selwood

 

[happy_eagle]

G'day guys new to the thread and just want some opinions

What do you all think of Gary ablett finishing in the top 5? I have him finishing on 23-24 second behind selwood

That is the general consensus amongst most here, and is reflected by the odds

 

[Keystone agony]

Not even close.

I have Dean Cox polling 2 this year, if he only gets 1 vote I'll note how severely he underpolled

So you dont see a difference between 7.5 to 4 compared 2 to 1. Ok.

 

[Keystone agony]

G'day guys new to the thread and just want some opinions

What do you all think of Gary ablett finishing in the top 5? I have him finishing on 23-24 second behind selwood

100% certainty top 5 IMO. Hes gonna get 23 votes 5 wont get more than that.

 

[Jugada]

So you dont see a difference between 7.5 to 4 compared 2 to 1. Ok.

3 votes vs 1 in total difference. Yeah, huge

If "half the votes" doesnt actually mean anything why even bring it up to begin with. What about if Selwood only polls 22 votes, do the umpires hate him?

Is it % of votes or the total votes difference? Because it seems like you have two sets of rules to back up your argument

 

[Keystone agony]

3 votes vs 1 in total difference. Yeah, huge

If "half the votes" doesnt actually mean anything why even bring it up to begin with. What about if Selwood only polls 22 votes, do the umpires hate him?

Is it % of votes or the total votes difference? Because it seems like you have two sets of rules to back up your argument

Its percentage but example size needs to be much larger than 1/2 vote game which can just be one game a round.

A 7.5 vote predicted example/sample size is much larger when compared to 4 than 2 is to getting one.

Surely your not that stupid to see a difference in those. If selwood polls 13 votes than yes hes underpolled or poored poorly.

 

[Jugada]

Its percentage but example size needs to be much larger than 1/2 vote game which can just be one game a round.

A 7.5 vote predicted example/sample size is much larger when compared to 4 than 2 is to getting one.

Surely your not that stupid to see a difference in those. If selwood polls 13 votes than yes hes underpolled or poored poorly.

Yeah and 7 vs 4 is not a big enough sample to be going oh 50% less, UMPIRES HATE HIM!

1 match he didn't poll where I had him polling...1 match...again..1 match. Lol whatever though I'm done with this

 

[EightySix]

First of all he polled 9 votes last year, which is almost exactly what I had him down for.
2012 he only polled 4 but he wasn't expect to poll many that year. 4-7 was about his range

I would love to know which matches you think he was hard done in

Correct, typo i meant 2012 - if you compare statistically 2014 numbers to 2012.

2013 - i had him on 10, polled 9
2012 - i had him on 16, polled 4

Boomer may have abit of advantage this year with Wells/Swallow sitting out most of this year.

But i was bringing up the point that he has underpolled in previous years.

He's had a great year, but he has a reputation now with certain acts on field - which may come into consideration for umps.

FWIW i have him on 9 (min 7, max 11) and not involving him with any team multis.

 

[Tigers04]

I'm also liking the trifecta of selwood, ablett and Kennedy, what does everyone else think?

 

[gothedons]

I'm also liking the trifecta of selwood, ablett and Kennedy, what does everyone else think?

Also on this, have taken a small saver on Gray insteadd of Kennedy also... Kennedy is a big risk for me as he could over or underpoll due to Sydneys depth and potential vote getters!

 

[Tigers04]

Yeah your not wrong there! I also see great value in Dom Tyson top vote getter for the dees, have gone through every game for the dees and have him at least 2 votes ahead of jones!

 

[pete galvin]

They already stipulated that in the trebles, there is no player out in the groups, they are just groups. They shit themselves and pulled them down quicker than they put them up. As pathetic as Palmerbet that lot.

Yep I have. I guess my vote tallies were just more accurate than yours for him..

yeah mate...obviously you the man.....the same man who gives Stevie-J 3 votes in rnd 4...lmfao....I think i'll give your opinion a miss,thanks anyway

 

[Jugada]

yeah mate...obviously you the man.....the same man who gives Stevie-J 3 votes in rnd 4...lmfao....I think i'll give your opinion a miss,thanks anyway

No probs mate........you keep preaching. .........tha truth...give me a shout out....once you've worn out...the..............Full stop button...

 

[iluvparis]

Predicting 7.5 and getting 4 is

Cmon mate - its like if rookie I.El-Paris plays one game for the year and plays well. You predict he will get 2 votes in that game. He only gets 1.

Does that mean your polling is horribly innacurate?

 

[pete galvin]

For 2012 I had him as

Rd2: 0.5
Rd3: 1.5
Rd12: 2
Rd18: 0.5
Rd19: 2
Rd21: 1

For 7.5 votes

Getting 4 votes was nothing shocking. Even if people had him polling more that's 1 bad year which =/= bad poller, he has many good years of polling in the bank and has played much better this year than he has in the last couple

Brent Harvey 2012....

rnd 2>> 32 disp 2goals 1 9IS50
rnd3>> 38 disp 1 goal 5IS50
Rnd 12>29 disp 4 gaols 9IS50
rnd 18> 30 disp 2 goals
rnd 19>32 disp 1 goal
rnd 21>31 disp 5IS 50

4 votes.......mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

[pete galvin]

No probs mate........you keep preaching. .........tha truth...give me a shout out....once you've worn out...the..............Full stop button...

so are you the local mouth or what??

 

[Jugada]

Brent Harvey 2012....

rnd 2>> 32 disp 2goals
rnd3>> 38 disp 1 goal 5IS50
Rnd 12>29 disp 4 gaols 9IS50
rnd 18> 30 disp 2 goals
rnd 19>32 disp 1 goal
rnd 21>31 disp 5IS 50

4 votes.......mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

So now you're using stats?

 

[KardiniaPark]

Hang on I need to go and find a popcorn gif BRB

 

[KardiniaPark]

Ok I'm back!

 

[PureFooty]

Nat Fyfe 3.50 most votes is a seriously good bet.

 

[Keystone agony]

Cmon mate - its like if rookie I.El-Paris plays one game for the year and plays well. You predict he will get 2 votes in that game. He only gets 1.

Does that mean your polling is horribly innacurate?

Already covered and the answer is ......

 

[X_box_X]

So now you're using stats?

So now you're saying umpires don't look at stats to influence their votes?

 

[Keystone agony]

Nat Fyfe 3.50 most votes is a seriously good bet.

He wins my count but IMO im worried about the underlying sort.of.corruption and power the afl has had and used lately to get their way.

Im still completely baffled.by fyfe striking with 2 rounds to go. Ive played with fyfe and plenty of times against, certainly not that player at all.

I have probably over polled because when I watch games with him involved he jumps out as a class above on many occasions. Gave him 2 for round 1 which im really unsure about and 3 against the roos when they lost. Im W/O my book so there would be others. Its hard for me to think he will gather 26 votes in 18 games. However my count isnt really an accurate predictor of exact votes necessarily but more so where they will finish in regards to others if that makes sense.

 

[Keystone agony]

So now you're saying umpires don't look at stats to influence their votes?

Lel haha

 

[Jugada]

So now you're saying umpires don't look at stats to influence their votes?

I don't believe that's what I said at all actually