tales129
Norm Smith Medallist
heppell @ 31s
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2014 Brownlow Medal
- Thread starter TheJanuaryMan
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How the heck did that sell out in minutes? Did they take 5 bets?
Whoever backed that just threw their money away.
toxic
Premium Gold
Unders
Yeah they had Cotchin & Buddy @101 and then Heppell @31... and that one sold out quicker than the others
Bic
Norm Smith Medallist
- Nov 20, 2009
- 6,720
- 6,954
- AFL Club
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- Chelsea, Melbourne City, OKC
JPK Top 5 @1.88
- May 5, 2011
- 2,134
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- Brisbane Lions
lol they are probably taking 10 bets on each one for $10 or something, classic sportsbet
I've built a reasonably sophisticated logistic regression model based on stats and some other factors I will keep to myself, which has performed admirably in backtesting. I'm happy to post the full output here but I can't for the life of me figure out how to attach a spreadsheet. I thought it may be of interest because it's a bit of a departure from most of the conversation I've seen around here. In particular has Boak beating Gray, Beams beating Pendles and Franklin tying JPK. I think it's main value lies in awarding votes to players in losing teams, which seems to be an area a lot of us struggle with.
Zorko to beat Jack Riewoldt ?
- Banned
- #1,386
Who's your top 5?
JR probably has 2 BOGs - def. against GWS, possibly against St Kilda where he killed the game off his own boot in the first half.
Priddis $31 now.
If he was $101 Id have a bite, but cbf @ that price.
If he was $101 Id have a bite, but cbf @ that price.
Ablett 26
Fyfe 25
Priddis 23
Selwood 22
Rockliff 21
And three more to give an eligible top 5...
Johnson 21
Cotchin 20
Beams 20
Remember this is no input from me, purely statistics based with some media input, so please keep any flames to yourself. Looking at it subjectively, Rockliff is probably the furthest out as Ablett picking up votes in big losing sides has influenced the model fit somewhat. I'm actually considering a refit with Gary receiving his own variable.
By looking at the photo I'm guessing the last 3 "specials" will be Selwood, Ablett and ???
Heppell and Priddis were easy to guess with the hair haha. The one to the right of the logo looks like the bald Gary to me.
Heppell and Priddis were easy to guess with the hair haha. The one to the right of the logo looks like the bald Gary to me.
toxic
Premium Gold
Yeah they had Cotchin & Buddy @101 and then Heppell @31... and that one sold out quicker than the others
were they just straight win odds or could you back them each way?
Probably Lewis
MatLewis5
Senior List
Lewis you would imagine
win only
esnaider10
Rookie
- Jun 2, 2009
- 26
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- West Coast
How does cotchin look in your model.... Looks good in mine
- Jul 25, 2008
- 3,937
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- Indiana Pacers
Jordan Lewis?
- Jul 25, 2008
- 3,937
- 2,548
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Indiana Pacers
What do people think they will offer for Selwood and Ablett?
tales129
Norm Smith Medallist
$3 and $5
Model loves him. He's on 20. Loves Barlow too, he's on 18. Not sure how Phantom has him on 8.
