2014 Brownlow Medal

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Sportsbet Team Quinella - Richmond - just took Cotchin/Ellis @ $5, looks a good bet.

I may have under-polled Deledio (7/8 votes) , but Cotchin/Delidio @ $1.85 looks far too short.
And Cotchin/Martin @ $1.90 .....really?? I have Martin on like 3. Does anyone have him polling better than Ellis (12.5).
Cotchin/Riewoldt doesn't even get quoted and I reckon that would be a far more likely result.
 
King Of Money said:
Sportsbet Team Quinella - Richmond - just took Cotchin/Ellis @ $5, looks a good bet.

I may have under-polled Deledio (7/8 votes) , but Cotchin/Delidio @ $1.85 looks far too short.
And Cotchin/Martin @ $1.90 .....really?? I have Martin on like 3. Does anyone have him polling better than Ellis (12.5).
Cotchin/Riewoldt doesn't even get quoted and I reckon that would be a far more likely result.
Click to expand...

have deledio and martin comfortable beating ellis 14 and 13 to 9 respectively
 
Have deledio 15. Martin I think 14. His season has been fsr superior to his last and IIRC he polled 13 last year but with more wins so id say mid teens is right on the ball park.

I only have Ellis 8-10 IIRC. Will be interesting to see how the ellis/macrae outsides.go never thought stanton/sidebottom have torn and charlie apart.with votes. Similar alow putaide accumulatora that dont have massive influences on games. *Sidey has must admit
 

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happy_eagle said:
http://wel-cdn220-is-2.se.bponlinew...8/GEEL_V_WCE_RD04_Q1_S_1111711712__917761.mp4
http://wel-cdn220-is-3.se.bponlinew...t/649/470/GEEL_V_WCE_RD04_Q2_S_1114989179.mp4
http://wel-cdn220-is-2.se.bponlinew...t/649/487/GEEL_V_WCE_RD04_Q3_S_1116948857.mp4
http://wel-cdn220-is-1.se.bponlinew...4/GEEL_V_WCE_RD04_Q4_S_1121611735__130539.mp4

Watch the game yourself and report back ok (although being an eagles fan, i'd assume you watch all our games)?
Click to expand...
Your the one who posted the clip... I'm just stating that what you posted is a package that highlights 4 disposals 2 of which were shots on goal..... I have watched the game (no commentary) and believe Selwood and SJ will fight it out for top votes..... Round 1 2005 collingwood v kangaroos Heath shaw had 27kicks - 13 of which were clangers - his career high by some way!!!! Heath shaw polled 2 votes - Brent Harvey had 23 possessions 3 goals and everyone thought he was a sure thing for BOG only polled 1 vote..... Happy Eagle your analysis for votes is flawed - because what you fail to state/realise is that if you are wrong in just 1 of the 23 games you analyse the players final position on brownlow night will alter massively to where you expect he may finish - God help you if you are wrong in 2 or more games..... People posting their final vote tally tables believing that it will be in the vicinity of the actual count need a reality check.....
 
pete galvin said:
ok,serious thoughts from any of you guys who DIDNT give Stevie-J 3 votes in rnd 4...lol...whats your thoughts on the leaders of these groups?

I have Beams just ahead of Rocky here...
Beams
Johnson
Parker
Dangerfield
Rockliff
Harvey

I have mundy a couple clear of the pack here...
Sloane
Gibbs
Mundy
Prestia
N Riewoldt
Hartlett

and I have Tyson just in front here....
Libba
Tyson
Cunnington
S Hill
D Swallow
Scotty Thompson

Thoughts guys??
Click to expand...

I really rate those SP groupa. FWIW that llast group.i have 4 of them on 13 and another 12.

That middle group I think I have all 8-13 aswell. Sloanes my favourite bet there though.

That first group again I have 3 of thwm on 16 exact and another 2 on 17 and parker could do.much more than his 13-14
 
esnaider10 said:
Your the one who posted the clip... I'm just stating that what you posted is a package that highlights 4 disposals 2 of which were shots on goal..... I have watched the game (no commentary) and believe Selwood and SJ will fight it out for top votes..... Round 1 2005 collingwood v kangaroos Heath shaw had 27kicks - 13 of which were clangers - his career high by some way!!!! Heath shaw polled 2 votes - Brent Harvey had 23 possessions 3 goals and everyone thought he was a sure thing for BOG only polled 1 vote..... Happy Eagle your analysis for votes is flawed - because what you fail to state/realise is that if you are wrong in just 1 of the 23 games you analyse the players final position on brownlow night will alter massively to where you expect he may finish - God help you if you are wrong in 2 or more games..... People posting their final vote tally tables believing that it will be in the vicinity of the actual count need a reality check.....
Click to expand...

I posted the link to that SJ clip to be facetious given that the R4 game has been talked up crazy amounts on here, and has gotten alot of people unnecessarily angry (case in point, your entirely stupid post above ^).

Where have I stated that I expect my tally to be exact? Fairly sure nobody has done that in the history of predictions ever. I will stand by my votes and try to find value here and there, but they are far from perfect, I dont even watch 8 games each week.

You need to relax, or post some more useful stats from 2005 :)
 
My advice for the average punter this year is to pick a player that has potential to poll up to 28 votes but the agencies believe will poll around 18 to 23 and be pipped by gaz or selwood.... I have identified my player and have gone hard on him..... This player is by no means a sure thing but if everything goes right with him on the night he will win the brownlow.... My prediction is that there will be a player that polls a bunch of 3's that nobody predicted.... I hope very much it is my man, but if it's not my guy I expect it will be someone else that comes over the top and takes out gaz and selwood..... There are a lot of threats!
 
My advice for the average punter looking to become champion punters is to go hard on backing outcomes where you can lay off on betfair for skinnier odds to guarantee yourself a profit.

Or you can continue to be an average punter as described by the previous poster.
 
X_box_X said:
My advice for the average punter looking to become champion punters is to go hard on backing outcomes where you can lay off on betfair for skinnier odds to guarantee yourself a profit.

Or you can continue to be an average punter as described by the previous poster.
Click to expand...
My advice to average punter looking to become a champion punter is that you should stay an average punter rather than think you are any hope of being a champion punter..... Champion punters don't post on bigfooty forums..... And there is not such thing as a 'sure thing' like described above.
 
King Of Money said:
Sportsbet Team Quinella - Richmond - just took Cotchin/Ellis @ $5, looks a good bet.

I may have under-polled Deledio (7/8 votes) , but Cotchin/Delidio @ $1.85 looks far too short.
And Cotchin/Martin @ $1.90 .....really?? I have Martin on like 3. Does anyone have him polling better than Ellis (12.5).
Cotchin/Riewoldt doesn't even get quoted and I reckon that would be a far more likely result.
Click to expand...

I would like to see your entire team votes for Richmond please.

I assume it looks something like this? :

Cotchin 43
Ellis 12
Deledio 8
Martin 3
 
My advice to average punter looking to become a champion punter is that you should go straight to the most profitable thread on BF.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/kardinia-parks-racing-sports.976367/page-11

100% strike rate.

It's quite amazing he's giving it away for free again. What a great guy. I'll just keep giving to my people until it hurts. THEN I'll give some more because that's the kind of guy I am. Imagine when I really open up the shoulders this weekend, WOWEE!
 

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footystar_ said:
Ladbrokes are now offering Most Team Vote Multi's -> http://tiny.cc/Ladbrokesmostteamvotes
Click to expand...
so is TopSports......and you can multi not just team votes,but teams into top 5 into winner into quinella into the team with most brownlow votes into...well anything and everything into everything really.....I just multied Kennedy top 5/Kennedy MV Syd/Sydney most brownlow votes/selwood win/selwood-Ablett quinella @ $35.80....crazy shit
 
pete galvin said:
so is TopSports......and you can multi not just team votes,but teams into top 5 into winner into quinella into the team with most brownlow votes into...well anything and everything into everything really.....I just multied Kennedy top 5/Kennedy MV Syd/Sydney most brownlow votes/selwood win/selwood-Ablett quinella @ $35.80....crazy shit
Click to expand...
Just did the same.

On another topic wheres Kennedy paying the most to win? $11 @TAB?
 
pete galvin said:
so is TopSports......and you can multi not just team votes,but teams into top 5 into winner into quinella into the team with most brownlow votes into...well anything and everything into everything really.....I just multied Kennedy top 5/Kennedy MV Syd/Sydney most brownlow votes/selwood win/selwood-Ablett quinella @ $35.80....crazy shit
Click to expand...

They won't pay it out if it wins, which is fair enough
 
esnaider10 said:
My advice for the average punter this year is to pick a player that has potential to poll up to 28 votes but the agencies believe will poll around 18 to 23 and be pipped by gaz or selwood.... I have identified my player and have gone hard on him..... This player is by no means a sure thing but if everything goes right with him on the night he will win the brownlow.... My prediction is that there will be a player that polls a bunch of 3's that nobody predicted.... I hope very much it is my man, but if it's not my guy I expect it will be someone else that comes over the top and takes out gaz and selwood..... There are a lot of threats!
Click to expand...

IMO there are probably 2 that are capable of 28 and they are J.Selwood and R.Gray. Maybe, maybe very off chance J.P.K however i have him around 21 as actual votes he could probably get 28 if everything went his way and the umps just love him this season like Hanneberry the year before.

The winners coming from Selwood, Gray, Ablett, J.P.K and IMO someone will out poll or at least draw with Gaz whos gonna get a 23-24.
 
Any thoughts on this market?


Changed Clubs
Markets (1)
Dom Tyson2.00
Brendon Goddard3.00
Callan Ward3.50
Bernie Vince11.00
Shane Mumford12.00
Paul Chapman15.00
Jared Polec26.00
Stefan Martin31.00
Josh Caddy41.00
Heath Shaw51.00
Dale Thomas81.00
Ben McEvoy101.00
Eddie Betts101.00
Matthew White101.00
 
KardiniaPark said:
I would like to see your entire team votes for Richmond please.

I assume it looks something like this? :

Cotchin 43
Ellis 12
Deledio 8
Martin 3
Click to expand...
Throw in JRoo for 10 votes and you're pretty close.

Martin narrowly missed getting my votes in 4 matches so no surprise if I'm a little bit off the mark with him, but 13+ as mentioned earlier seems a bit generous. (Plus I take votes off for really bad hair styles.)
 

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