2014 Brownlow Medal

[hot dogs]

Had a multi of Sydney win (pf) into Kennedy top 5 and Ladbrokes have marked it as a loss. Wtf?

I had a similar multi with Selwood top 5 and they have also put it down as a loss... I guess I will be calling them for a chat as well today.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

final wash-up:

my leaderboard had 15 of the 18 club votes correct - missed port (boak), sydney (franklin) and gws (ward), so landed good value with the likes of macrae (wb), beams (coll - halved).

correctly had mumford leading at round 4 at $51 (1/4 divvy)

ablett leading at round 11

some disappointment in overall boards. got to say straight up, Priddis an absolutely worthy winner, very richly earnt - fair, hard ball player and while theeis some criticism over his disposal, can't fault how hard he works and how much of the ball he wins.

the love from the umpires to dangerfield and to a lesser extent boak borders on embarrassing. there is no way dangerfield's season was that good, that is a plain joke. while i expected them to notice gray obviously, they missed some of his bigger games, but that will come in time.

came out in front and quite happy with that, hopefully plenty here did well out of the night in other markets than the winner and top 5

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

$15 Gray to poll in most games at $15 w Classicbet

$15 Boak +7.5 handicap @ $15 w Classicbet


$30 McRae most Bulldogs votes @ $26 w Topsport
$30 Mundy most votes Group E @ $21 w Puntingpal
$30 McRae most votes Group A @ $11 w Puntingpal
$15 Beams/Mitchell/Kennedy most votes multi @ $16 w TAB (EXC Lewis)
$15 Rocky/Mundy/NDS most votes multi @ $15 w TAB (EXC Fyfe)
$100 Priddis top three @ $6 w TAB
$50 Priddis win @ $21 w TAB
$50 Selwood win @ $6.50 w Centrebet
$100 Kennedy top five @ $2.25 w TAB

I think this is is the only post in 65 pages where someone specifically had a bet on Priddis. Nice one.

 

[pete galvin]

Just book a room together boys, sword fight it out FFS

Whos this Galvin Sux campaigner?????????????? ****in wannabee

 

[somethingrandom]

Well it didn't win it was a dead heat, if there's a seven horse race and they all cross the line first at the same time would you really expect the bookie to pay out all 7 in full? They would lose a fortune.

Very simplistic and unrealistic way of looking at it. The chance of a 7 horse field ending in a 7 way dead heat is 2734590518283.34 to 1.
Brownlow betting is fixed odds, not a tote. So theoretically if a book had a huge liability on a favored selection that wasn't a winner in a dead heat scenario they could pay out in full on the less favored winners and still not lose. Of course they all have dead heat rules in place so this will never happen.

 

[somethingrandom]

Selwood backers this morning

 

[Jugada]

I think its safe to say the big dollars being made in the brownlow are gone. The laat 2 years wouldve bee a success for the bookies. Even the renowned brownlow king has lost last 2 years based on what hes told us before the count

Why? Just because all the favourites that every mug likes to crunch in with multis doesn't get up?

 

[banana_bus]

There were some nice ones last night;

Hodge
McRae
Beams

And if you got on early enough Boomer, SJ, cotchin were nice multi boosters.

 

[d3ft]

There were some nice ones last night;

Hodge
McRae
Beams

And if you got on early enough Boomer, SJ, cotchin were nice multi boosters.

Jesus, when was SJ paying anything above 1.05? He was as close to a cert (in minus Selwood markets of course) as anyone in Brownlow history.

Boak, Franklin and Beams were the big ones for me (were in an earlier post). And then that skirt Gibbs nearly undid it all. Him getting the 3 in R21 was a Brownlow miracle.

 

[Murphinator]

Some notes:

• Polling history is critical to polling ability.
• SJ 3 votes round 4. Tipped that.
• Boak > Gray. counted gray for 15 - actually polled 14. Had Boak for 19 - Polled 21.
• Selwood and Cotch nowhere near the money this year. Selwood polled especially poorly compared to what year he had
• Duncan 3rd behind SJ and Selwood, this bet basically got me even money by the end.
• Ward & NJones great anchors
• Gibbs royally screwed by umpires
• Buddy outpolling JPK screwed a lot of my multis
• Danger is a ridiculous poller, proved once again
• Had Lewis for 14 - Polled 15.
• Bonti is a stud

 

[banana_bus]

Jesus, when was SJ paying anything above 1.05? He was as close to a cert (in minus Selwood markets of course) as anyone in Brownlow history.

Boak, Franklin and Beams were the big ones for me (were in an earlier post). And then that skirt Gibbs nearly undid it all. Him getting the 3 in R21 was a Brownlow miracle.

I think he was about $1.20 at some point? Cant remember, but yeah was as good as it gets as an anchor.

I had Gibbs in a couple, in hindsight was a shit option. Got realllllly lucky with the 3 votes in round 23.

I say this every year, but gonna get on Dangerfield early in next years market. The kid polls in his sleep.

 

[HurlsMeister18]

Selwood backers this morning

A couple of my mates were on Selwood and by about Rd 20 they were like

 

[banana_bus]

Not sure what happened to Selwood this year. Completely bucked all Brownlow trends.

 

[Keystone agony]

Why? Just because all the favourites that every mug likes to crunch in with multis doesn't get up?

Like who?

 

[Keystone agony]

Not sure what happened to Selwood this year. Completely bucked all Brownlow trends.

Gives too much to the ump banana_bus and his year was fairly meh but i thought it was enough to win it.

 

[X_box_X]

I think this is is the only post in 65 pages where someone specifically had a bet on Priddis. Nice one.

Yeah, pretty chuffed about a $3050 overall profit, but it could have been plenty more had Tyson not polled two votes in the final round to beat Mcrae in group E (I had $100 free bet on him at $11 as well as an additional $30).

 

[Keystone agony]

Likewise, I only made a small profit, but if I was a bit smarter on staking etc would have been a big night. Boak over Gray, Gray under 16.5, Lewis under 15.5, Bontempelli rookies group all very decent odds that were gettable, unfortunately gave it all back in other plays. But it's still there if you hit the right option, as it is with everything.

Yeh and you know what thats called .... captain hindsight.

 

[Keystone agony]

Jesus, when was SJ paying anything above 1.05? He was as close to a cert (in minus Selwood markets of course) as anyone in Brownlow history.

Boak, Franklin and Beams were the big ones for me (were in an earlier post). And then that skirt Gibbs nearly undid it all. Him getting the 3 in R21 was a Brownlow miracle.

SJ was 1.30 and 1.15/1.18 for a while.

 

[Keystone agony]

My Predictions What they got

Dangerfield 17-19 21 (He slightly overpolled not to the extent some are saying. I basically couldnt determine one game if he should get the 1-3 and thats why i had 17-19) Yes he got the 3 for that game.
Sloane 13.5 10
ST 12 14

Rockliff 16 15
Hanley 8.5 9
Zorko 6.5 8
Redden 5 5

M.Murphy 12 9 (If he got the 3 in round 2, he got 1)
Gibbs 10.83 9

Pendlebury 17 16
Beams 17 16
Sidebottom 9 9

Heppell 17 14
Goddard 10.5 9
Watson 9 8
Zacka 9 8

Fyfe 26.5 25
S.Hill 13 9
Sandilands 10 7
Barlow 9 13
Ballantyne 8 6
Mundy 6 13

J.Selwood 26 21
SJ 16 19
Duncan 7 12

Ablett 23 22
Prestia 9 13
Bennell 7-8 6
D.Swallow 6 5

Ward 9.5 9
Treloar 9 5
Mumford 5.5 8

Lewis 21 15 (Knew he was a mid to high teen and would underpoll)
Hodge 9.5 12 (Rightfully got 2nd)
Roughead 9.5 11
Mitchell 9 8
Bruest 8 5

N.Jones 15 13
Tyson 13 11

Harvey 16 15
Cunnington 13 13
Dal Santo 9.5 8
Swallow 7 9

Gray 25 15
Boak 17 21

Cotchin 19-20 18
Deledio 15 12
Martin 13 13
Ellis 8-10 9

N.Riewoldt 12.5 12
Montagna 5 7

Kennedy 21.5 21
Franklin 19 22
Hannebery 14.5 11
Parker 13 12

Priddis 17 25
J.J.Kennedy 11 11
Lecras 10 6
Shuey 9 9

Libba 13 5
Boyd 7 5
Macrae 6 10
Griffen 5 5

Not bad i probably couldve won alot more money than what i did but i was a bit negative and didnt want to outlay massive amounts.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Yeh and you know what thats called .... captain hindsight.

If only I'd backed all winners I'd be rich!

A couple of my mates were on Selwood and by about Rd 20 they were like

Well they were late, I was like that at R5.

 

[illavitar]

I'm happy he got it (well I'm not really!) but it's the BEST and fairest.

So they're saying you'd want him in your team more than Selwood, Fyfe, Danger and Pendlebury. Can't we prove the votes were set up simply based on the fact he wasn't the best this year?

Like I mean it's evident he wasn't the best this year therefore all the tabs should be obligated by law to refund and it should be redone or made ineligible this year.

 

[Lensen]

Like I mean it's evident he wasn't the best this year therefore all the tabs should be obligated by law to refund and it should be redone or made ineligible this year.

 

[cutterman]

Yeh and you know what thats called .... captain hindsight.

Yeah I'll cop that, fair call. Didn't go about making my point the right way.

But to say there's no value around and there's no big money to be made in the Brownlow anymore is a ludicrous statement. It's all about finding the right markets.

(may sound a bit condescending, not my intention)

 

[Murphinator]

Where are all the heroes that were saying Gray was going to win/Gray was going to top 5 easily/Gray was going to beat Boak?

If he has a similar year next year he will poll more strongly, but Boak is a stud. Team spread is good too

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Where are all the heroes that were saying Gray was going to win/Gray was going to top 5 easily/Gray was going to beat Boak?

If he has a similar year next year he will poll more strongly, but Boak is a stud. Team spread is good too

Same place as those saying Gibbs, Simpson and Judd would outpoll Murphy? ;-)

ah well, all the fun done for another year, been a good ride lads, should do it all again some time