2015 - AFL Round 18

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Hawthorn |$1.16|$1.15|$*.**|$1.18|$1.14|$1.17
\Richmond |$5.25|$5.50|$*.**|$4.60|$5.75|$5.00
\|line:*.5|line:35.5|line:*.5|line:33.5|line:34.5|line:34.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Geelong |$1.10|$1.10|$*.**|$1.10|$1.11|$1.12
\Brisbane |$7.00|$6.50|$*.**|$6.25|$6.50|$6.00
\|line:*.5|line:40.5|line:*.5|line:40.5|line:38.5|line:39.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Collingwood |$1.30|$1.33|$*.**|$1.30|$*.**|$1.30
\Melbourne |$3.55|$3.20|$*.**|$3.35|$*.**|$3.50
\|line:*.5|line:21.5|line:*.5|line:23.5|line:*.5|line:20.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Sydney |$1.35|$1.36|$*.**|$1.35|$*.**|$1.38
\Adelaide |$3.20|$3.00|$*.**|$3.05|$*.**|$3.00
\|line:*.5|line:19.5|line:*.5|line:19.5|line:*.5|line:18.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Carlton |$6.00|$4.65|$*.**|$4.60|$5.25|$4.75
\North Melb. |$1.13|$1.17|$*.**|$1.18|$1.16|$1.19
\|line:*.5|line:34.5|line:*.5|line:36.5|line:34.5|line:38.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Gold Coast |$7.00|$6.75|$*.**|$7.00|$*.**|$6.50
\West Coast |$1.10|$1.10|$*.**|$1.08|$*.**|$1.11
\|line:*.5|line:39.5|line:*.5|line:39.5|line:*.5|line:32.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Port Adel. |$1.25|$1.26|$*.**|$1.30|$*.**|$*.**
\St Kilda |$4.00|$3.75|$*.**|$3.35|$*.**|$*.**
\|line:*.5|line:25.5|line:*.5|line:23.5|line:*.5|line:*.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Essendon |$2.75|$2.75|$*.**|$2.75|$*.**|$2.80
\West.Bulldogs |$1.45|$1.42|$*.**|$1.42|$*.**|$1.43
\|line:*.5|line:15.5|line:*.5|line:14.5|line:*.5|line:16.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Fremantle |$1.16|$1.17|$*.**|$1.18|$1.16|$1.16
\G-W Sydney |$5.25|$4.75|$*.**|$4.60|$5.25|$5.25
\|line:*.5|line:32.5|line:*.5|line:32.5|line:31.5|line:35.5

ODDS AT 22.30 ON 26/7/15

 

[chrisdon16]

Very early, but most favorites look like as solid as oak. staying the hell away from Port and Sydney. Crows +19.5, Freo -32.5 look like good value.

 

[freo_leo29]

Very early, but most favorites look like as solid as oak. staying the hell away from Port and Sydney. Crows +19.5, Freo -32.5 look like good value.

Could be time for freo to rest sandi with Griffin and Clarke taking the ruck, also Mcpharlin may be rested with Dawson having two weeks at Peel.
This is of course speculation but i doubt the line will move too much throughout the week (freo has been shaky lately) so may be best to wait for teams

 

[Zealbee]

Made some early bets:

4U West Coast - 26.5 v Gold Coast (bet365)

2U Hawthorn - 28.5 v Richmond (Crownbet)

Sticking to middles again this week. No highest score of the round for me any more (Essendon and Port Adelaide GTFO).

 

[banana_bus]

Not sure if bias but that 5.50 looks overs for Richmond. Have a great recent history against the Hawks and are playing good footy.

 

[stewie griffen]

3 looks overs for the Crows.... Hmm

Saints look value at 3.75, we could do anything.... I know we won on Saturday but we were bloody awful

Dogs look a backable price at 1.45

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

Made some early bets:

4U West Coast - 26.5 v Gold Coast (bet365)

2U Hawthorn - 28.5 v Richmond (Crownbet)

Sticking to middles again this week. No highest score of the round for me any more (Essendon and Port Adelaide GTFO).

When did you take 26.5 mate? Hovering around 40 now.

 

[Zealbee]

When did you take 26.5 mate? Hovering around 40 now.

Yesterday morning. They had the line too low.

Looking ahead Carlton +8.5 against Brisbane seems great value to me. Lions are a dumpster fire and apart from last week against Hawthorn Carlton have been much improved.

 

[FootyStar#1]

That line for the bulldogs really should be around 24, very generous i reckon

 

[chrisdon16]

Yesterday morning. They had the line too low.

Looking ahead Carlton +8.5 against Brisbane seems great value to me. Lions are a dumpster fire and apart from last week against Hawthorn Carlton have been much improved.

Cats play Brisbane

 

[chrisdon16]

Cats play Brisbane

Sorry, didn't see the looking ahead part

 

[Zealbee]

Sorry, didn't see the looking ahead part

Weekly total match points bets pls.

 

[chrisdon16]

Weekly total match points bets pls.

Alright, lets see how we go. Bookies have been pretty generous on a few games:
Cats Lions - under 170.5
Pies Dees - under 167.5
Blues North - under 182.5
Suns Eagles - under 182.5
Freo GWS - under 163.5


Keen on some more games but waiting for the lines to move a bit

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

hocus pocus $5 bet, trying to copy Z and spot the value on future rounds, I've avoided R23 for the rest factor *spoiler alert I'm probably not as good, WAYYYY too much Richmond*



Stupid Ladbrokes dont give you the H2H odds you secured next each selection, just the lines, have to click on each of them to get the CURRENT market and price ……...what an age we live in!

RD18 Freo @ $1.15
RD19 Rich @ $1.87
RD19 Coll @ $1.22
RD19 Nth @ $1.25
RD21 Rich @ $1.80
RD21 Adel @ $1.11
RD22 Rich @ $1.22

+ the $1.87 lines Hawthorn lines = @ $57.16

 

[d3ft]

hocus pocus $5 bet, trying to copy Z and spot the value on future rounds, I've avoided R23 for the rest factor *spoiler alert I'm probably not as good, WAYYYY too much Richmond*

Can't believe they let you multi the same team.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Can't believe they let you multi the same team.

A $5 bet @ $55 probably flies pretty low and they just dont give a shit, but yea, i was thinking that also while picking the bets.

 

[Zealbee]

Crownbet have some interesting prices and lines for the next round.

Like Geelong +5.5 vs Sydney. I think they should shorten since they are playing the Lions this week and should thrash them. Will take that and hope for a middle later.

Also offering West Coast +8.5, playing Gold Coast so again think they should shorten a bit.

 

[Zealbee]

2U Geelong +5.5 vs Sydney @ 1.92 (Crownbet)

Teams are even on the other books.


2U GWS -6.5 vs Essendon @ 1.87 (Ladbrokes)

Line is 10.5 and 12.5 on other books.

 

[Robo87]

Thoughts on "Wire to Wire" for Geelong + also the WC game? @1.51 for both Geelong and WC atm.

Edit:
& West Coast highest score in "mythical derby" @1.66 (Vs freo - under afl specials SB)

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

SBET special is back. Money back if team leads at any quarter and losses.

 

[Profphat]

Alright, lets see how we go. Bookies have been pretty generous on a few games:
Cats Lions - under 170.5
Pies Dees - under 167.5
Blues North - under 182.5
Suns Eagles - under 182.5
Freo GWS - under 163.5


Keen on some more games but waiting for the lines to move a bit

Does anyone know how GC structure up or what the weather will be like?
Not so sure on Suns Eagles game going under based on the teams.
Since their bye, GC have scored 69 away to Carlton, 125 vs NM, 73 away to WB, 79 vs GWS, and 80 away to Adel who are an attacking side.
WCE have been massive scorers (except the collingwood game).
When Adel played WCE a few weeks ago it was the highest scoring game of the round (249 points)

PS i got on the Blues/North - under 182.5
Cat Lions is 167.5 @ Luxbet

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Also offering West Coast +8.5, playing Gold Coast so again think they should shorten a bit.

Close enough to back to back six day breaks worries me with WCE (will get home well and truly after midnight on Sunday morning after the GC game). WCE are a super team at home and all but Hawthorn are Hawthorn and will be rested up for the trip to Perth, if they do another gap job on Richmond on Friday night i dont think it will matter what WCE do against GC, i could see it going the other way actually, out to around the +12 - +15 range by game time.

Anyway, just my 2c, you're usually pretty good with these bud so dont let my opinion worry you at all if you're confident. (i took the -6.5 about Hawthorn at Ladbrokes so i guess we shall see)

 

[Zealbee]

Close enough to back to back six day breaks worries me with WCE (will get home well and truly after midnight on Sunday morning after the GC game). WCE are a super team at home and all but Hawthorn are Hawthorn and will be rested up for the trip to Perth, if they do another gap job on Richmond on Friday night i dont think it will matter what WCE do against GC, i could see it going the other way actually, out to around the +12 - +15 range by game time.

Anyway, just my 2c, you're usually pretty good with these bud so dont let my opinion worry you at all if you're confident. (i took the -6.5 about Hawthorn at Ladbrokes so i guess we shall see)

Oh I think Hawthorn win, just wanting a middle to open up. I didn't put it on anyway. I would think Hawthorn would shorten a bit.

 

[chrisdon16]

Hawks
Geelong
Pies
West Coast
North
Freo
all to win $2.52

Considering all these teams are fighting for either top 2, top 4 or top 8, don't see any of them coming close to losing. Only one I'm worried about is maybe Richmond doing something ridiculous and beating Hawthorn, but really?

 

[Big Fozza]

freo v gws under 163.5
ess v wbd under 177.5
port v stk under 183.5
carl v nm under 180.5
geel v bne under 170.5

1u each and then .5u on multi of them all