2015 - AFL Round 23

[chrisdon16]

Anyone have any idea why Richmond have been smashed into 1.50? Are North resting anyone, otherwise seems odd.

Most likely, north want to finish 8th and stay in Melbourne to play Richmond next week, considering that Sydney beat the suns

 

[stewie griffen]

Said it once, and I'll say it again. Simply a no bet game

Exactly

What are they resting up for? The footy trip?

We may as well play kids

Will we?

Probably not

 

[chrisdon16]

Will be interesting to watch the game to be honest. Predicting a shoot out with very limited work rate

 

[Zealbee]

Exactly



We may as well play kids

Will we?

Probably not

May as well but they won't.

 

[chrisdon16]

Last total for the year:
Dees/GWS - U180.5

 

[csnody]

Which site is that with

Will Hill. Have updated my original post as well.

 

[theomanos24]

Kangaroos will win deledio may not play due to being concused from the tackle from Courtney Dempsey 3.35 is tempting

 

[chrisdon16]

Kangaroos will win deledio may not play due to being concused from the tackle from Courtney Dempsey 3.35 is tempting

Highly doubt it. They don't want to travel and play a red hot Adelaide side next week

 

[Spads]

Why would they bother playing a full strength team?

Does this logic extend to Carlton, Gold Coast and Brisbane for the entire year. They have "nothing to play for" so do they drop all the senior players and throw the towel in each game from Round 1 to 23?

 

[banana_bus]

Does this logic extend to Carlton, Gold Coast and Brisbane for the entire year. They have "nothing to play for" so do they drop all the senior players and throw the towel in each game from Round 1 to 23?

That's why they book players in for surgery when they could have played on.

We're talking about resting players for one game so they're fresh for finals. It's not really a comparison to teams that can't make finals 6 weeks out.

 

[Spads]

Most likely, north want to finish 8th and stay in Melbourne to play Richmond next week, considering that Sydney beat the suns

Am I missing something here?

North Lose - North stay 8th and play Richmond, or North play the Bulldogs if the Bulldogs have a big win (by over 60 points against Brisbane).
North Win - if Adelaide win North play the Bulldogs, and if Adelaide lose North play Richmond.

What is the difference either way? I see no incentive to lose at all. The only vague argument I'm expecting to hear is that of not showing all of your cards, and that's pretty dubious given they may not play each other first week of the finals anyway.

And after last week surely North want to play some good footy before the finals.

 

[Spads]

That's why they book players in for surgery when they could have played on.

We're talking about resting players for one game so they're fresh for finals. It's not really a comparison to teams that can't make finals 6 weeks out.

No, we're talking about Port. Nothing to do with finals.

 

[stewie griffen]

Does this logic extend to Carlton, Gold Coast and Brisbane for the entire year. They have "nothing to play for" so do they drop all the senior players and throw the towel in each game from Round 1 to 23?

A Port win sees us stay 9th.

Other results, such as GWS, Geelong and Collingwood winning could see us drop to 12th.

So thats the difference being picking 7th or 10th, although that could end up at the Suns i guess so who cares really.

Schulz has been struggling with a back, there's no point playing him now. We'd be better off throwing Harvey in for a game and getting game time into Amon, Ahchee, Young, Impey and Sam Gray than playing anyone with a slight niggle.

I don't see us dropping players like Fremantle, but you could certainly make a case for it

If you'd jumped on Saturday or Sunday at the 1.8 or so that was around I'd have said go for it, but punting on that game at those odds/line is a no for me.

If North win, I'd look at the Crows and I think GWS is about the only other game with value in the head to head/line, each to their own tho.

 

[NutnButAPnut]

North - Dogs - Hawks - Swans - Wc
100 @ 4.26, SB 1 leg loss cash back

Pretty confident the other 4 will win if North decides to no show

 

[Spads]

A Port win sees us stay 9th.

Other results, such as GWS, Geelong and Collingwood winning could see us drop to 12th.

So thats the difference being picking 7th or 10th, although that could end up at the Suns i guess so who cares really.

Schulz has been struggling with a back, there's no point playing him now. We'd be better off throwing Harvey in for a game and getting game time into Amon, Ahchee, Young, Impey and Sam Gray than playing anyone with a slight niggle.

I don't see us dropping players like Fremantle, but you could certainly make a case for it

If you'd jumped on Saturday or Sunday at the 1.8 or so that was around I'd have said go for it, but punting on that game at those odds/line is a no for me.

If North win, I'd look at the Crows and I think GWS is about the only other game with value in the head to head/line, each to their own tho.

So why would Geelong, GWS or Collingwood win? Based on maximising draft position, why does any team that can't play finals ever win?

 

[chrisdon16]

Am I missing something here?

North Lose - North stay 8th and play Richmond, or North play the Bulldogs if the Bulldogs have a big win (by over 60 points against Brisbane).
North Win - if Adelaide win North play the Bulldogs, and if Adelaide lose North play Richmond.

What is the difference either way? I see no incentive to lose at all. The only vague argument I'm expecting to hear is that of not showing all of your cards, and that's pretty dubious given they may not play each other first week of the finals anyway.

And after last week surely North want to play some good footy before the finals.

(Lets assume Bulldogs beat Brisbane and Adelaide beat Geelong) There's a huge difference. If North win, they travel to play Adelaide at the AO, a ground they dominate on. If they lose, they stay in Melbourne, no travel, and play either Richmond or the Dogs at the G...

 

[Dougy85]

(Lets assume Bulldogs beat Brisbane and Adelaide beat Geelong) There's a huge difference. If North win, they travel to play Adelaide at the AO, a ground they dominate on. If they lose, they stay in Melbourne, no travel, and play either Richmond or the Dogs at the G...

North would have to beat Rich by roughly 100 points to go above them. As long as the dogs win North wont be travelling.

 

[Fuzzy Happy Poo]

(Lets assume Bulldogs beat Brisbane and Adelaide beat Geelong) There's a huge difference. If North win, they travel to play Adelaide at the AO, a ground they dominate on. If they lose, they stay in Melbourne, no travel, and play either Richmond or the Dogs at the G...

if bulldogs beat brisbane and adelaide beat geelong. then bulldogs would be above adelaide. so then if richmond win they go above them all and would play kangaroos. if kangaroos win all teams stay the same and it would be bulldogs vs kangaroos. this scenario richmond would want to win to avoid a trip to adelaide.

brisbane would need to beat bulldogs which is honestly unlikely

 

[Zealbee]

ROSS Lyon has confirmed that six senior players will definitely miss Saturday's clash with Port Adelaide and that youngster Connor Blakely will make his AFL debut.

The AFL gave Fremantle the green light on Monday to rest up to 11 players for Saturday's round 23 clash after the Dockers secured top spot last weekend with one round to play.

Lyon confirmed that skipper Matthew Pavlich, Luke McPharlin, Aaron Sandilands, Stephen Hill and Lee Spurr would definitely not play this week. The Dockers will discuss any further changes over the coming days.

Lyon confirmed that Michael Walters would not be risked against Port Adelaide after missing last week with calf tightness.

Cam Sutcliffe is set to miss with his dislocated shoulder although Lyon said he would be available for the first final.

Hayden Ballantyne trained on Tuesday morning at Fremantle Oval and Lyon said the forward was on track to return for the week one of the finals.

He said Nat Fyfe was also recovering well from the inflammation in his fibula.

I think they will rest even more.

 

[GROTTO]

.

brisbane would need to beat bulldogs which is honestly unlikely

So was Essendon beating the Hawks, Lions beating the Power, Carlton beating the Power, Demons beating Collingwood, Collingwood beating Geelong, Saints, drawing with Geelong, GWS beating the Hawks, GWS beating Adelaide, Port beating the Hawks twice, Melbourne beating Western Bulldogs and Geelong, Saints beating Western Bulldogs.

Shit happens.

 

[Spads]

North would have to beat Rich by roughly 100 points to go above them. As long as the dogs win North wont be travelling.

So given that North have no incentive to lose, can anyone explain the line moving from +7.5 to +21.5?

 

[GROTTO]

I think they will rest even more.

Ross Lyon perhaps? Why bother even going over? Let the assistants take over?

Didnt Port do this over the summer, where Hinkley didnt coach in the NAB?

 

[banana_bus]

So given that North have no incentive to lose, can anyone explain the line moving from +7.5 to +21.5?

So what's their incentive to win?

Mark Stevens said this morning that the Roos will be resting players this week. That's where this all came from.

 

[GROTTO]

Richmond bashed in from $1.52 into $1.27 since last night 11pm.

 

[Spads]

So what's their incentive to win?

Mark Stevens said this morning that the Roos will be resting players this week. That's where this all came from.

Ok thanks, that must be where it's coming from.

I generally don't think teams really need incentives to win.