2016 - AFL Round 1

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Supercoach bet:

Jack Riewoldt $1.88 vs Shane Edwards $1.88

Edwards doubtful but i think plays (Tigs enough men down already) coming off no preseason, on the contrary Jack is flying. High levels of confidence here and have bet appropriately.

(Same can apply for Cripps vs Murphy @ $1.84 but not quite as good a bet as Jack IMO and slightly lesser odds )

A winning ticket, i havent seen one of you in quite some time. **** off please March, youve been a stinker.

Alive in the impossible multi, only need another 8 winners to pull me out of the fire.

 

[mookieb]

A winning ticket, i havent seen one of you in quite some time. **** off please March, youve been a stinker.

Alive in the impossible multi, only need another 8 winners to pull me out of the fire.

Wins on the margin for the 2nd and 4th quarters (used this for bet365 promo in play as well). Wins on Richmond across the board. Riewoldt lost a bit kicking only 2 goals. Surprised to see Carlton kick 12 goals so a loss on that bet.

Good game and around 3.5 units up so good start to the season.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I was loss chasing on that bet so bankroll managment went out the window, still feel on tilt tho, hopefully i find another h2h to loss chase on tomorrow. This is going to end great.

 

[mookieb]

Wins on the margin for the 2nd and 4th quarters (used this for bet365 promo in play as well). Wins on Richmond across the board. Riewoldt lost a bit kicking only 2 goals. Surprised to see Carlton kick 12 goals so a loss on that bet.

Good game and around 3.5 units up so good start to the season.

 

[Keystone agony]

So what was that about Richmond doing it easy? Great game, you blues fans iluvparis need some confidence in your side.

 

[Keystone agony]

Soz, you said you had some ridiculous ROI and SR so i just assumed you would be limited, my bad.

Is ROI 16,21 and 23% ridiculous?

Wasnt a great night for dreamteam for me. I was expecting Murphy to struggle.

 

[demon_fanatic]

does 169.5 at sportsbet for dees/gws look low.. both these teams showed during NAB that they want to take game on with quicker ball movement.. yes there is a 40% chance of showers but it shouldn't be severe enough to dent the scoring.. i mean two offensively inept teams tonight went 175 in Carlton/Richmond.. its at 172.5 over at centrebet.

 

[MikeLike]

100 unit for any other result than GWS or Melburne to lead at end of each quarter @$1.95 at willamhill look out boys

 

[iluvparis]

So what was that about Richmond doing it easy? Great game, you blues fans iluvparis need some confidence in your side.

Did we win?

 

[langdon19]

does 169.5 at sportsbet for dees/gws look low.. both these teams showed during NAB that they want to take game on with quicker ball movement.. yes there is a 40% chance of showers but it shouldn't be severe enough to dent the scoring.. i mean two offensively inept teams tonight went 175 in Carlton/Richmond.. its at 172.5 over at centrebet.

Yep tailing this

 

[free at last]

Freo continue to drift +5.5 @ SB $1.92

 

[X_box_X]

Freo continue to drift +5.5 @ SB $1.92

Amazing. I just don't get it.

 

[mookieb]

Amazing. I just don't get it.

Freo were ordinary for the last half of the year so there might be a school of thought other teams have worked them out.

Sandilands vital to their structure is out as is Bennell.

At Etihad where the Dogs have a fantastic record.

Should be a very close game with lots of lead changes. Will probably bet on both sides with Sportsbet / Crown promos.

 

[free at last]

Amazing. I just don't get it.

Punters are backing that freo probably can't improve much on last year and your mob will?

 

[X_box_X]

Punters are backing that freo probably can't improve much on last year and your mob will?

I couldn't care less if Freo don't improve or not, but I hope you're right about the last part.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Looks like a serious amount of rain in Perth this weekend. Bris lowest scorer of round against a decent defence is still 3.55 on crownbet. Could nearly even have a saver on Essendon at 6.50. think generous odds for either if u like.

 

[free at last]

does 169.5 at sportsbet for dees/gws look low.. both these teams showed during NAB that they want to take game on with quicker ball movement.. yes there is a 40% chance of showers but it shouldn't be severe enough to dent the scoring.. i mean two offensively inept teams tonight went 175 in Carlton/Richmond.. its at 172.5 over at centrebet.

I've got the TGPs at 174.5 for the GWS v DEES

 

[demon_fanatic]

I've got the TGPs at 174.5 for the GWS v DEES

how do you work that out?? are you often accurate??hope you're right

 

[demon_fanatic]

also do you think the exotic disposals are good to hit overs due to more time on ground for each player.. eg nathan jones 25.5... i really like, also rischitelli 23.5 vs bombers.

 

[Lensen]

How do you figure there is more time on the ground for each player

 

[Sausage Legs]

How do you figure there is more time on the ground for each player

i'd imagine the interchange cap would keep the better players on for longer and resting forward. Although with full ground presses theres not a lot of places to have a breather.

 

[free at last]

how do you work that out?? are you often accurate??hope you're right

Add the average score for the AFL roughly 86 + dees pts for
Dees pts against + 86
Repeat for GWS

You then come to a number of around 696 divide by 4 =174

I've increased the actual total from 170.5 to 174.5 through improvement IMO by both sides.

Last night I had the total at 169.5 for the Tigers v blues

 

[demon_fanatic]

How do you figure there is more time on the ground for each player

less rotations means the mids are often resting forward or elsewhere.

 

[freo_leo29]

i'd imagine the interchange cap would keep the better players on for longer and resting forward. Although with full ground presses theres not a lot of places to have a breather.

less rotations means the mids are often resting forward or elsewhere.

Players may also just spend longer chunks off the ground say instead of 3 minutes start of quarter and 3 minutes at the end they might just come off for a 6 minute chunk, so the time evens out.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Players may also just spend longer chunks off the ground say instead of 3 minutes start of quarter and 3 minutes at the end they might just come off for a 6 minute chunk, so the time evens out.

oh yer lol true