2016 AFL - Round 10

[Robo87]

$25 Geelong 30+ @2.00 lads betblast.
1u Dickson 2g+ @2.00 365 (has kicked 10goals in 5 games)
0.5u Dickson 3g+ @4.33 365
1u Hill 2g+ @1.83 cr
0.5u Hill 3g+ @6.80 sb

 

[X_box_X]

My last three player disposal exotics have been Martin (30), Coniglio (30) and Zaka (30). None of those were middles.

I would love Hunter to get exactly 30 today. That is a middle and I'll be $1750 richer as a result.

 

[targett]

My last three player disposal exotics have been Martin (30), Coniglio (30) and Zaka (30). None of those were middles.

I would love Hunter to get exactly 30 today. That is a middle and I'll be $1750 richer as a result.

A negative middle ?

 

[Jay-Z]

1u Dickson 2g+ @2.00 365 (has kicked 10goals in 5 games)
0.5u Dickson 3g+ @4.33 365

Tailing this one

 

[WCE_phil]

I've gone geelong half/full time double and shuey 25+ disposals (he tends to dominate the weaker sides and has a very good relationship with nicnat)

 

[ricardogp]

Oh well, 1/2. Only a goal short on the other.

Melbourne +24 / Saints @ $1.80 for this arvo.

Got killed in the 4th qtr...

Not sure what value is around today.

 

[X_box_X]

A negative middle ?

You can't call them negative middles. The Zaka bet I took yesterday were effective odds of $1.27 that he didn't get exactly 29 disposals. I would take that every single time, even for players with an extremely low standard deviation who average 29 disposals per game.

 

[Sketi]

Some totals for R10:
Sydney/North-U180.5
Brisbane/Hawthorn-U200.5
St.Kilda/Freo- U182.5
Essendon/Richmond-U177.5
Adelaide/GWS-U200.5

4/5 nice work.

 

[desTROY]

4/5 nice work.

Any today chrisdon16?

 

[targett]

You can't call them negative middles. The Zaka bet I took yesterday were effective odds of $1.27 that he didn't get exactly 29 disposals. I would take that every single time, even for players with an extremely low standard deviation who average 29 disposals per game.

A negative middle is a negative return either side of the middle . I was not suggesting this was a negative.

 

[Chism]

Cats heavy favourites today for good reason but we usually play well against them.

Matty K and Casboult confirmed in and i am having a small nibble at scores tied at the end of any Qtr at 17-1 on TAB as it is good value, 1st Qtr the most likely to salute but footy is a funny game!

 

[BROOMY]

Selwood 35+ disposals @ 8.50
Priddis 40+ disposals @ 11

Bit on the double as well.

 

[kangars]

Most disposals today. Dangerfield into treloar into Aaron hall, putting on $25. Pays about $2000. Got no reasoning behinds this, just want a free holiday.

 

[X_box_X]

A negative middle is a negative return either side of the middle . I was not suggesting this was a negative.

Roger.

I therefore have a positive middle on the Hunter bet.

 

[Substance]

$100 on Dogs @ 1.55

Collingwood struggle when they don't win the CP count. Dogs are +26 on average this year.

They also struggle when they don't win the i50 count. The dogs are +16 differential on average and the pies are -3.

Add to that, that this is the best team the Dogs have in since round 3, I think the 1.55 is true value, and they should be around 1.25.

 

[mookieb]

Anything else think Pies are overs at $3?

2U Pies SU @ $3

Might give the game a miss from a betting perspective as 3 of my multis should get up and not much interest in the games on offer.

The Collingwood game will be interesting to see if they are on a purple patch or if they simply beat Brisbane and caught Geelong on the hop in the first quarter. Given that many will be looking at WB as potential top 4 then they should cover the line here and win reasonably comfortably. Much is said about how good they are at Etihad, but they did beat Melbourne quite comfortably at the MCG a couple of weeks ago who are looking like a similar level team to Collingwood (probably better on overall form). With multiple players back and coming off a loss I feel that they will win.

I should have jumped on the line for GC when it was 80+ as I knew they were getting a host of players back and the line has shortened significantly. However, the last rounds I have done very well betting against weak sides so don't think it would be wise to reverse that for a GC team that may or may not turn up.

Carlton have started well and hopefully it's close so an attractive line is available for the 4th quarter where Geelong have been dominant this year.

 

[Youdy]

Thank you hawks! Also hit a Zorko disposal middle (o22.5 and u23.5 at Sports/crown) so lucky day for me

Rumors Kennedy might be out, haven't seen any confirmation

Palmer bet in the Top Goalscorer market have any player not listed at 9$
Kennedy isn't listed if anyone is interested

he's at ~2$ everywhere else

 

[Gimpalicious]

Most disposals today. Dangerfield into treloar into Aaron hall, putting on $25. Pays about $2000. Got no reasoning behinds this, just want a free holiday.

Tailed this with a cheeky 5, bit of fun.

 

[Chism]

Cats heavy favourites today for good reason but we usually play well against them.

Matty K and Casboult confirmed in and i am having a small nibble at scores tied at the end of any Qtr at 17-1 on TAB as it is good value, 1st Qtr the most likely to salute but footy is a funny game!

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[Maveric]

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

You got the lotto numbers for me as well

 

[mookieb]

Cats heavy favourites today for good reason but we usually play well against them.

Matty K and Casboult confirmed in and i am having a small nibble at scores tied at the end of any Qtr at 17-1 on TAB as it is good value, 1st Qtr the most likely to salute but footy is a funny game!

Boom!!!!!!!

 

[csnody]

Cats heavy favourites today for good reason but we usually play well against them.

Matty K and Casboult confirmed in and i am having a small nibble at scores tied at the end of any Qtr at 17-1 on TAB as it is good value, 1st Qtr the most likely to salute but footy is a funny game!

Best tip of the week.

 

[BoxMatrix]

Carlton at $9 ain't a bad bet the way they playing right now.

 

[iluvparis]

Best tip of the week.

Yup - quality tip!

 

[mookieb]

Carlton at $9 ain't a bad bet the way they playing right now.

Might be a better bet against Brisbane next week at the line.

Edit: Two players down now so in real trouble. Murphy obviously the main one.