2016 AFL - Round 11

[STANDBYHIRD12]

Love you Chrisdon!! Ripper stuff mate

 

[Jay-Z]

1u Adelaide - 96.5 (live) just because it's been a great weekend

Edit - @ $3

 

[benji21]

1u Adelaide - 96.5 (live) just because it's been a great weekend

Think I'll join you on that

 

[mookieb]

1u Adelaide - 96.5 (live) just because it's been a great weekend

Spewing that the Saints raised the white flag so early. Was hoping they would be at least competitive for a quarter or two before jumping on. Might just watch now and cheer the multis and total home.

 

[benji21]

4U over 181.5 crows game. It looks alright here

Gotta love a last quarter against the flow

 

[mookieb]

I think there is some good value in todays games. Melbourne has been a bit of a bunny team for Hawthorn in the past losing by 105 points last year. Hawks have good matchups for Watts and Hogan (Frawley) and there is potential for forwards like Rioli, Breust and Gunston to be dominant. While Melbourne have feasted on weak teams I can't see them winning especially with Viney their best player out. Think it will be close and Hawks blow it out in the last half (like they have done in the last 3 of 4) so will be looking at an in-play bet at that time. Hawks by 34.

I have some good success beating against weak teams (Brisbane road performances WC -64, Geel -69, WB -53, Port -77, Melb -60) so on Carlton for the win and line. Carlton have been consistently solid recently and Brisbane has been atrocious on the road. Carlton by 36.

I think I will avoid the Coll / Port game with injuries to Collingwood a concern. Their midfield has been fantastic, but they lose Adams and Fasolo is their key goal kicker. It's hard to get a read on Port, but if they didn't butcher the last 5 minutes vs Carlton they would have been 4 and 1 in their previous 5 games.

Sydney traditionally smash GC (never lost by less than 35), but GC over the last 2 weeks have got most of their injured players back and the game is likely to be played in atrocious conditions so i'm on Sydney by 1-39. I don't think GC will be as poor as bookies are predicting at their home ground.

For a half Freo's pressure was fantastic last week and if they match that they should beat Essendon comfortably. Mundy is a big in for Freo and I think Kelly will be missed badly. Interstate Ess has lost to GC -61, Port -61 and Syd -81 so their road record is far more dismal than playing in Melbourne. It should be a massive game for Freo and expect them to win by 24.

GWS I thought were well beaten by Adelaide underlying concerns they don't travel that well and it doesn't get more difficult than playing Geelong at Skilled after 2 very average performances. I think GWS might struggle travelling back to back against two top teams. Geelong should win by 3 goals, but I will be watching with interest to see how Geelong perform if Selwood struggles with a tag or underperforms.

2u Carlton H2H, 1u Carlton -17.5, 1u Carlton -23.5, 1u Geelong -9.5, 1u Sydney 1-39, 1u WB H2H, 0.5u on GC over 1.5 behinds 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarters.

Totals

WB / WC U181.5, Hawks/Melb u197.5

Multi's

SB - Hawks, Syd, Geel, Carl, Ade
SB - Hawks, Syd, WB, Carl, Ade
Tabtouch - Hawks, Syd, Freo, Carl, Ade
WH - Carl -20.5, Freo -12.5, Ade -20.5, GSW (Golden State)

Damn a Jenkins poster away from 4 from 4 on totals (thumbs up Chrisdon). Should get 4 multis home all H2H, line bets, Syd 1-39, Hawks in the 4th and 2 of 3 tailed bets of GC over 1.5 behinds. Nailed a few in-play bets on the Bet365 promo so overall a fantasic round. Should have tailed a few more bets, looks like many on here were right on the money.

 

[chrisdon16]

North/Richmond-U182.5
Hawthorn/Melbourne-U198.5
Collingwood/Port-O164.5
Bulldogs/West Coast-U181.5
Adelaide/Saints-O180.5

Good week but the loss was brutal, second half went for 75 points Shit happens

 

[csnody]

Round 11 Totals:
Carlton/Brisbane: U190.5 (SB)
Geelong/GWS: O185.5 (b365)
GC/Sydney: O145.5 (SB)
Collingwood/PortA: O178.5 (SB)

Good week for me. But a bit of a silly bet on the GC/Sydney game, oh well!

 

[Robo87]

Adding:
1U Lyons Anytime GS @2.30 (kicked 7goals straight in his 6 games)
1U J.Hill Anytime GS @2.00 (like dusty3 posted above)

If it's of interest, Adel/stk as Sunday high/low double is @5 on crown

These & Chrisdon16 totals made a good weekend.

 

[sledbomber]

These & Chrisdon16 totals made a good weekend.

Thanks for the Lyons tip mate

 

[thedodgers360]

Good weekend indeed
Owe some of you guys props for a few selections in these multi's.

 

[thedodgers360]

Was getting a little ridiculous finishing off with this bet

 

[kyan]

I suspect this weekend has been a bad week for the bookies, Every prematch fav won and 8/9 prematch favs covered their line (hawks didnt)

as a general consensus the 'public' like to take the fav at the line

 

[2006_Eagles]

Ok so I am all over possesion bets now. $1.80 odds and better

Neale over 32? Tick
Zerrett over 30? Tick Over $2
Macrae over 30? Tick Over $2
Macrae to beat Pridda? Tick

Nothing under $1.85

Hunter was also $1.87 to beat Gaff GIVING AWAY MONEY

 

[mookieb]

I suspect this weekend has been a bad week for the bookies, Every prematch fav won and 8/9 prematch favs covered their line (hawks didnt)

as a general consensus the 'public' like to take the fav at the line

#prayforbookies

 

[csnody]

Ok so I am all over possesion bets now. $1.80 odds and better

Neale over 32? Tick
Zerrett over 30? Tick Over $2
Macrae over 30? Tick Over $2
Macrae to beat Pridda? Tick

Nothing under $1.85

Hunter was also $1.87 to beat Gaff GIVING AWAY MONEY

There ya go. Green makes everything better!