2016 AFL - Round 15

[SM]

You'd think worsfold would have them pretty prepped for the ground though.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

throwing a few hundge down this weekend for some entertainment. Looking at Crows SU into one or two others. Anyone got any good leans? some games look a bit dicey.

I have Crows -17.5/Sydney -17.5/Port H2H = $4.54 on Sportsbet - The Crows are scoring machines, even away from home, they're much better than Melbourne and they have more to play for. Sydney at home...they'll take care of the Doggies at the line (or 1-39, if you decide to go that way). The Swans can go to the top of the ladder if they win this one. Port at home, they'll beat Richmond. It'll be a tough game. The season is over for the loser, but home ground advantage for Port will get them the win, thus keeping their finals hopes alive. The Power are pretty dirty about their pre-bye loss to Freo. They'll come out hard.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

I also have 1U on the high/low double (WC/Ess.) at $4 (Sportsbet). Can't really see any other teams coming near these two, at either end of the spectrum.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Either some huge money has been bet on the under, or as above, bookies are aware that Essendon could only score 40 odd, which is pretty likely

Just hope bombers don't try n limit damage and play free like vs Gws and get the 55-65 pts we prob need

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Zac Merrett / Darling

30 disposals/ 3 goals

$4.60

 

[chrisdon16]

Just hope bombers don't try n limit damage and play free like vs Gws and get the 55-65 pts we prob need

As much as I enjoyed my team playing well, it was to do with GWS letting them play that way. Very confident West Coast will keep them to 40-50, maybe 60

 

[Youdy]

You'd think worsfold would have them pretty prepped for the ground though.

They were pretty terrible against Fremantle, so unsure if he has had any impact in that respect

 

[demon_fanatic]

They were pretty terrible against Fremantle, so unsure if he has had any impact in that respect

God back down to 176.5 on sbet

 

[Woody15]

2U West Coast over 3.5 points 1st Q @ 1.82

 

[Parko31]

Just heard Tim Watson say on ch7 news Kennedy might not be playing. Anyone know what that's about?

 

[Victor harbor]

2U West Coast over 3.5 points 1st Q @ 1.82

Darling@ lecras to kick 3 each

 

[free at last]

As much as I enjoyed my team playing well, it was to do with GWS letting them play that way. Very confident West Coast will keep them to 40-50, maybe 60

I just spoke to my mate who lives close to Subiaco,clear skies and getting cold.Hopefully it becomes really dewy in Perth tonight!

 

[Sausage Legs]

Just heard Tim Watson say on ch7 news Kennedy might not be playing. Anyone know what that's about?

watson's pissed

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Just heard Tim Watson say on ch7 news Kennedy might not be playing. Anyone know what that's about?

Maybe he meant to say that Jobe isn't playing tonight?

 

[demon_fanatic]

I just spoke to my mate who lives close to Subiaco,clear skies and getting cold.Hopefully it becomes really dewy in Perth tonight!

Nooooooo I'm on over lol

 

[Pies n Punt]

I have Crows -17.5/Sydney -17.5/Port H2H = $4.54 on Sportsbet - The Crows are scoring machines, even away from home, they're much better than Melbourne and they have more to play for. Sydney at home...they'll take care of the Doggies at the line (or 1-39, if you decide to go that way). The Swans can go to the top of the ladder if they win this one. Port at home, they'll beat Richmond. It'll be a tough game. The season is over for the loser, but home ground advantage for Port will get them the win, thus keeping their finals hopes alive. The Power are pretty dirty about their pre-bye loss to Freo. They'll come out hard.

Brilliant chick. Cheers. I'll get on those. Did alright on the euros so throwing a few bob aint gonna hurt.

 

[Dusty3]

Essendon over 3.5 behinds 2nd Half : 11/13 games WC have allowed this, Essendon have gone overs 11/13 so given this is still assumedly at roughly $1.90 seems a solid bet.

Essendon +19.5 4th quarter: Essesndon gone within 19.5 in 10/13 games, WC won by 20+ only 2/13 this season in the last.

Will try post more often next week, been going through Uni exams and such and been very busy applying for internships and things now so hopefully thats all clear by next week!

Edit: Also can anyone give me any logic (not psychological confirmation bias trash) that says GC should be favourites? All I can come up with is Tom Lynch could go nuts, otherwise I just don't understand Saints being underdogs.

 

[Jay-Z]

Merrett / Le Cras 30 disp / 3 goals @ 5.20

Also on Kennedy 5+ and 6+

 

[Jay-Z]

Such is William Hill's confidence in Essendon they are not even offering a market for Both teams to score 60, lol

 

[eatpies]

Lacras to kick 6 tonight

 

[Mudeo]

Lecras 3 or more @ $2.55
West Coast 13+ Behinds 1st Quarter @ $105

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Essendon over 3.5 behinds 2nd Half : 11/13 games WC have allowed this, Essendon have gone overs 11/13 so given this is still assumedly at roughly $1.90 seems a solid bet.

Essendon +19.5 4th quarter: Essesndon gone within 19.5 in 10/13 games, WC won by 20+ only 2/13 this season in the last.

Will try post more often next week, been going through Uni exams and such and been very busy applying for internships and things now so hopefully thats all clear by next week!

Edit: Also can anyone give me any logic (not psychological confirmation bias trash) that says GC should be favourites? All I can come up with is Tom Lynch could go nuts, otherwise I just don't understand Saints being underdogs.

St. Kilda are a different team on the road...just going on past games. They've been thrashed more than once this season. Gold Coast have been competitive the past few games. Home ground advantage, etc...also, that Saints win against Geelong was huge and there'll likely be a bit of a let down this week. Good luck with your exam results

 

[mookieb]

Hard to guage what the Bombers will bring to the table.Against top eight sides they have an Av losing margain of 52 points.2/5 of the margains being 81 and 108.

I'm looking more at Essendon's woeful form away from home and the Eagles excellent home record. Eagles are pretty ruthless against weak teams. I would be more confident in a smashing if Essendon wasn't rested coming off a bye.

 

[sneak]

1u cripps 4+ goals @4.85

 

[targett]

Looks like McGovern will play backup ruck/tall forward

Should mean Darling gets the third tall

Some of the books have already moved, others still have McGovern at inflated odds for FGS etc

26$ at Tab, 21$ at WillHill

Into low teens at 365 etc

Luxbet also have Kennedy most goals 2.25 for those going large on Kennedy

Mcgovern Fwd ??? Find a new source ☺